Speculation: Guess Binnington's next contract

[EL Bandito]

2-3 yrs, $3-3.5mil/yr.

 

[Brian39]

Binnington is arbitration eligible, which prevents him from signing an offer sheet, so I don't think it's much to worry about.

That is inaccurate.

If Binny elects to go to arbitration, he can no longer be offer sheeted.

If the team elects to take him to arbitration he can still be offer sheeted.

Additionally, the player doesn't have to make the decision about going to arbitration until about a week after free agency opens and can be offer sheeted during that window even if he intends to go to arbitration.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

One year at $4.5 mil, and then see if he’s worth more next year on an extension.

Also trade Jake for either a one year guy like Anderson, or move him and sign either Moose or Talbot for a year.

 

[TheBluePenguin]

One year at $4.5 mil, and then see if he’s worth more next year on an extension.

Also trade Jake for either a one year guy like Anderson, or move him and sign either Moose or Talbot for a year.

I do not think it would be smart for him to take a 1 year deal, he just had a historic season, he doesn't need to bet on himself, he needs to take 2-3 year deal and guarantee some money now and cash in big if he hold his level of play. If his agent lets him take a 1 year deal he should be fired. Binnington holds all the chips.

Now someone like Fabbri needs to take a 1 year deal to show he is worth a good contract, He needs to bet on himself

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I do not think it would be smart for him to take a 1 year deal, he just had a historic season, he doesn't need to bet on himself, he needs to take 2-3 year deal and guarantee some money now and cash in big if he hold his level of play. If his agent lets him take a 1 year deal he should be fired. Binnington holds all the chips.

Now someone like Fabbri needs to take a 1 year deal to show he is worth a good contract, He needs to bet on himself

That’s completely fair. I’d prefer it to be a 2-3 year deal, but after everything Binner has gone through, I can see him wanting a prove-it deal to cash in even more.

 

[Ranksu]

Good points in this interview




So might even see 3-4 years north 5mill.$ AAV or even higher.

 

[Ranksu]

IF I would be Binny I would even talk about anything if contract would starts lower than Allen's AAV 4.350 mill.$ contract.

 

[Brockon]

Binnington is arbitration eligible, which prevents him from signing an offer sheet, so I don't think it's much to worry about.

Not exactly... If Binnington elects for arbitration, he can't sign an offer sheet.

Should he wish to roll the dice and not file for arbitration or the team takes him to arbitration, he can still be offer sheeted.

 

[medkit]

I'm guessing on the high side and will say 6 years at 5.5 million per year.

I really hope not. He shouldn't get 6 years here. I think all of the arbitration comments are wasted too; there's no way they take him to arb, there's plenty of goodwill here. If they take him to arb then they are going to get roasted by fans and probably lose him in UFA too.

It's going to depend on what Binnington wants because he's so close to UFA. If he demands term, then they have to work something out around a medium term 3-4 year deal with the knowledge that he doesn't have the track record to demand a top AAV, and Armstrong probably tries to move/dump Allen ahead of the signing. If he's cool with betting on himself for 1 year, then I can see a 1 year + $4-5 million tag and if he puts up a Vezina finalist season then a year later he's on track to probably be one of the highest paid goalies in the league in a bidwar. But if I were him I'd demand the term.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

If I told you he got a 6 year deal worth 6 mill per, who thinks we would ever regret it?

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

If I told you he got a 6 year deal worth 6 mill per, who thinks we would ever regret it?

Can you explain his AHL record over the past 3 years? Why do the Blues need to commit that long now?

I’m still expecting 3y 11M, buying one UFA year.

 

[Brian39]

I really hope not. He shouldn't get 6 years here. I think all of the arbitration comments are wasted too; there's no way they take him to arb, there's plenty of goodwill here. If they take him to arb then they are going to get roasted by fans and probably lose him in UFA too.

It's going to depend on what Binnington wants because he's so close to UFA. If he demands term, then they have to work something out around a medium term 3-4 year deal with the knowledge that he doesn't have the track record to demand a top AAV, and Armstrong probably tries to move/dump Allen ahead of the signing. If he's cool with betting on himself for 1 year, then I can see a 1 year + $4-5 million tag and if he puts up a Vezina finalist season then a year later he's on track to probably be one of the highest paid goalies in the league in a bidwar. But if I were him I'd demand the term.

And if I were Army, I would respond to that by saying, "happy to give you term on an AAV similar to your best comparable: Matt Murray."

 

[Brian39]

If I told you he got a 6 year deal worth 6 mill per, who thinks we would ever regret it?

I'd say there is about a 90% chance, unless you are using a "doesn't matter; won a Cup" measurement of regret.

How many 6 year, $5+ mil AAV goalie contracts are there that teams haven't eventually regretted?

The NHL is absolutely littered with bad goalie contracts. It is the most inconsistent position in hockey by a mile. Go back and look at the league's goaltenders from 6 years ago. Of the 24 guys who started 45+ games there are 9 who I'd have been comfortable using as a starter as a contender this year. 8 if you want to exclude Crawford due to injury. 6 years, $6 mil AAV is an insane contract to give any goaltender who isn't demonstrably elite. I don't think Binny is a flash in the pan, but we absolutely can't say he is going to be an elite goalie based on 50 games.

Binny's mental fortitude is fantastic, but there are mechanical issues that began getting exploited as teams watched film on him. His tendency to lift his left leg to cover for carrying his glove so high burned him at least 4 times in the last 2 rounds of the playoffs and it was clear that Boston was actively trying to get him to pull his leg off the ice before they shot and then slide it 5 hole. It worked a number of times. That needs to get cleaned up with a full offseason. I think it will, but there isn't a chance in hell I want to offer him 6 years and $36 mil until I see it cleaned up.

 

[Ranksu]

All I can say Binnington has earned his money and #1 goaltender spot compare to Allen who was handed in goldenplate money and #1 job while he get beat up back-up goaltenders.

I only remember 1 series what Allen was A+ and really stud #1 goaltender. I think it was vs. Wild series, but after that he has been mediocre or even worse than 1B goaltender.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

That’s completely fair. I’d prefer it to be a 2-3 year deal, but after everything Binner has gone through, I can see him wanting a prove-it deal to cash in even more.

A two year deal takes him to UFA. If we're going multiple years it needs to be at least three.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

If I told you he got a 6 year deal worth 6 mill per, who thinks we would ever regret it?

We just won the Cup, which we all thought would never happen. Whatever happens going forward will never change that.

Can you explain his AHL record over the past 3 years? Why do the Blues need to commit that long now?

I can't remember if it was Sportsnet or someone else that had an article on how Binnington got his shit together in the minors. It was basically "he got told after partying one week in the summer that he was just OK and that he could make a little money that way .... or, he could start busting his ass and make a hell of a lot more money."

I'll frame it another way: if you thought Bishop's 24-14-0, 2.26, .928 in 2011-12 was really a strong signal that he was NHL-caliber in late 2012 and that his previous cumulative 55-48-7, 2.72, .904 was the anomaly, it would seem to be inconsistent to then argue that Binnington's 28-13-1, 2.06, .926 from 2017-18 to present and his NHL play this past season is the anomaly and we should trust his previous cumulative 58-40-17, 2.62, .911 to be more indicative of who he really is.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

We just won the Cup, which we all thought would never happen. Whatever happens going forward will never change that.


I can't remember if it was Sportsnet or someone else that had an article on how Binnington got his **** together in the minors. It was basically "he got told after partying one week in the summer that he was just OK and that he could make a little money that way .... or, he could start busting his ass and make a hell of a lot more money."

I'll frame it another way: if you thought Bishop's 24-14-0, 2.26, .928 in 2011-12 was really a strong signal that he was NHL-caliber in late 2012 and that his previous cumulative 55-48-7, 2.72, .904 was the anomaly, it would seem to be inconsistent to then argue that Binnington's 28-13-1, 2.06, .926 from 2017-18 to present and his NHL play this past season is the anomaly and we should trust his previous cumulative 58-40-17, 2.62, .911 to be more indicative of who he really is.

None of that justifies signing him to a 6 year deal. You can sign him for 3 now, and re-up later. Especially if the Blues are willing to pay his UFA years as a starter, but want to see a bit of longevity first.

Binnington can set himself up for life with the next contract, then sign all UFA years with the one after, where he has full leverage and will have the track record to justify what he thinks he’s worth. Both scenarios he plays for the Blues and gets paid. There is some trust there from both sides.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

Hypothetically...

Let's say he gets 3 x 4.5 and plays well. Puts up roughly a 920 save percentage and has a couple solid playoff runs, maybe even another deep one.

He's now a pending UFA and asking for 8-9 mil (quite possible with the cap going up). Are we comfortable with that?

 

[Ted Hoffman]

None of that justifies signing him to a 6 year deal. You can sign him for 3 now, and re-up later. Especially if the Blues are willing to pay his UFA years as a starter, but want to see a bit of longevity first.

Binnington can set himself up for life with the next contract, then sign all UFA years with the one after, where he has full leverage and will have the track record to justify what he thinks he’s worth. Both scenarios he plays for the Blues and gets paid. There is some trust there from both sides.

Yeah, I agree that it doesn't justify 6 years by any stretch. I really think this will be a 1-year deal, 2 max. I'm just saying that if someone wants to argue his AHL record pre-17/18 as being the more reliable measure of who he is, I'm going to ask why older data is more believable than more recent data. I'm sure the Blues would be thrilled to point to the '17-18 seasons of Sundqvist and Barbashev and say "that's who you two really are" and have it stand up in contract negotiations; the reality is, both guys put up results this past season and they're going to get paid because of it.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Hypothetically...

Let's say he gets 3 x 4.5 and plays well. Puts up roughly a 920 save percentage and has a couple solid playoff runs, maybe even another deep one.

He's now a pending UFA and asking for 8-9 mil (quite possible with the cap going up). Are we comfortable with that?

We've won a Cup; I kind of don't care. If he backstops us to another Cup, I won't give even the first shit.

Seriously talking, there's only 6 guys playing right now who've backstopped a team to the Cup: Holtby, Murray, Crawford, Quick, Fleury, and now Binnington. Holtby got paid before his Cup; Murray, Quick and Crawford got paid after winning their 1st Cup, and Fleury won his 10 years ago and is kicking off a new contract this season that was signed after carrying Vegas to the Finals. The three highest-paid goalies haven't won a Cup; Price hasn't even been to the Finals and was the backup to Halak in 2010 when the Habs went to the ECF. Right now, we don't know what the value is of a goalie who's signing a contract after winning a pair of Cups so I don't know how $8-9 million fits.

Let me take it another way, though: in 2 years, are we comfortable handing the reins to Husso? Fitzpatrick? Someone else that's not Jake Allen? Jake Allen? If we don't think anyone else is ready to step in and be the #1 guy and carry this team through the postseason and we think this team's Cup window is still fairly open and Binnington has carried this team deep into the postseason yet again, do we really gut the spot that has been this franchise's Achilles' Heel for decades for the sake of a couple million dollars?

 

[Falco Lombardi]

We've won a Cup; I kind of don't care. If he backstops us to another Cup, I won't give even the first ****.

Seriously talking, there's only 6 guys playing right now who've backstopped a team to the Cup: Holtby, Murray, Crawford, Quick, Fleury, and now Binnington. Holtby got paid before his Cup; Murray, Quick and Crawford got paid after winning their 1st Cup, and Fleury won his 10 years ago and is kicking off a new contract this season that was signed after carrying Vegas to the Finals. The three highest-paid goalies haven't won a Cup; Price hasn't even been to the Finals and was the backup to Halak in 2010 when the Habs went to the ECF. Right now, we don't know what the value is of a goalie who's signing a contract after winning a pair of Cups so I don't know how $8-9 million fits.

Let me take it another way, though: in 2 years, are we comfortable handing the reins to Husso? Fitzpatrick? Someone else that's not Jake Allen? Jake Allen? If we don't think anyone else is ready to step in and be the #1 guy and carry this team through the postseason and we think this team's Cup window is still fairly open and Binnington has carried this team deep into the postseason yet again, do we really gut the spot that has been this franchise's Achilles' Heel for decades for the sake of a couple million dollars?

We're along the same lines of thinking.

I don't think this was a fluke by any means. I don't think he's going to suddenly fall off a cliff. I'd rather sign him long term right now and save money later.

Especially if I can move Allen's contract. I'm quite comfortable having 7.5-8 mil tied up in a tandem with Binnington as the lead dog.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Yeah, I agree that it doesn't justify 6 years by any stretch. I really think this will be a 1-year deal, 2 max. I'm just saying that if someone wants to argue his AHL record pre-17/18 as being the more reliable measure of who he is, I'm going to ask why older data is more believable than more recent data. I'm sure the Blues would be thrilled to point to the '17-18 seasons of Sundqvist and Barbashev and say "that's who you two really are" and have it stand up in contract negotiations; the reality is, both guys put up results this past season and they're going to get paid because of it.

It will be one year or 3 years. I think the team will steer it away from taking him straight to UFA.

 

[LGB51]

All I know is he earned a big payday, and the Blues better not lowball him. Looking forward to the day when I get my Binnington jersey.

 

[ezcreepin]

So I think we should keep in mind that we have a few goalies in the system that COULD be starters in this league given their progression is good, Husso and Fitzpatrick. The next thing we have to keep in mind is Allen's salary. Do we keep 2 goalies that together are 8 million? Even if Binny signs a great contract at like 4-4.5, I highly doubt Army keeps Allen as a 4+ mil backup. It just doesn't make sense to the salary cap. Even at 3 mil, Having a backup that is 4+ mil is just really bad, and I think there are suitors to take his contract, someone like Philly and Carolina. Now, I know Carolina has Mrazek, but he just hasn't been what everyone thought he would be. Philly has a great goalie in Hart, but he is young and could do well with having a good 1B like Allen.

Seeing all of this, I would personally like to lock up Binny to a longer contract, because even if he isn't as good as he was during the regular season, once competition amped up, he was still around league average, something we would benefit from over Allen. I think even if he posted something like .912, it's still worth the money because he is an x-factor. He has that ability to steal a game, maybe *ahem* a game 7? Allen showed he could steal a series, but he hasn't shown that ability in the playoffs ever. Binnington has, and more importantly, he's done this over his career.

Binnington is going to be 26 July 11th, and a 5 year deal would take him to 31. I would be just fine with 5-5.5 mil over that time, and plus you have two guys behind him that can challenge him. If one of them shows they are legit goalies, then you can trade Binny or trade one of them for a good asset. For this upcoming season though, I think Allen is potentially traded and we just look for a good backup like an Ellliott or McElhinney. This gives you great flexibility because I doubt one of those guys are asking for much. This would be something I would be down for, but I guess we'll see what Army does.

 

[Thallis]

Good points in this interview




So might even see 3-4 years north 5mill.$ AAV or even higher.

We'd trade him first. They're working off the assumption that Binnington outduelled Hellbyuck, Bishop, or Rask which just isn't the case. Matt Murray is his best comparable, won stanley cup in his rookie year, was pretty good but not great in playoffs, doesn't have a big body of work to go off of. Armstrong is typically pretty risk averse with his contracts and is still trying to fix his last goalie mistake where he got antsy about his guy, so I can't imagine some ridiculous number. How horrible would it be for Binnington if he held out and Husso played like he belonged in the NHL?