161 points in 70 games in a 6.29 gpg league is incredible. That’s 189 points. In a 8.00 gpg league easily over 200. 6.29 is essentially the 05-06 season.
Is it really 189 points though? There's zero evidence for it. 161 in 70 projects to 189 sure...but consider the following:
It's funny because for all the what ifs that people bring up with Lemieux (and Crosby), I don't see what I'm about to bring up too often. In 1995-1996, Lemieux had 109 points in his first 41 games.
He had 40 points in his first 12 games.
He had 64 points through 22 games.
He had 76 points through 28 games (he started the season on a 28 game point streak).
He had 109 points through 41 games.
That means he finished with 52 points in his final 29 games. 31 points in his final 16 games of that season, which included a 7 point game and a 5 point game. According to you and anyone who uses pace, adjusted stats, projections, etc, he should have had 218 points that year in a scoring environment of 6.18 which means he would get 300+ in a 8.00 GPG league. If you were told he would play 70 games, you would project him to 186 points. But in reality, he had 161.
Of course it's incredible. Lemieux is enshrined for life as no worse than a top 3 forward. But as brilliant and proven as he was, I don't trust any player other than Gretzky to be a lock for paces because he did it year after year after year. But even Gretzky, when he started with 153 points in 51 games did not maintain 3.0 ppg for the entire season, because scoring almost always drops by season's end.
Point of the post is that nothing is guaranteed. Lemieux proved he could get 160+ in any era, whether GPG was 6, 7 or higher.
How did someone like Sakic put up essentially the same season in a higher scoring environment than he did 5 seasons later in a lower scoring environment at an older age? Shouldn't he have hit 140 instead of 120 in 1995-1996 according to anyone who uses this very flawed projection method?
How could Lemieux put up 109 in his first 41 of 1995-1996 at age 30 in a 6.18 GPG league and "only" 5 points more for 114 in his first 41 of 1988-1989 at age 23 in a 7.33 GPG league?
Adjusted stats and speculations are cute and fun, but mean little realistically.