Line Combos: Greening should play / Ceci shouldn't

[Sensored]

There's been a lot of talk about our line combinations, especially with Hoffman being regulated to the 4th line. So I wanted to take a look at what the ideal combinations are.

The stat I'm using to quantify a players performance is SAT/Rel/60. For example, Karlsson has a 20.8 which means that during the playoffs the Ottawa Senators have directed 20.8 more shot attempts at Montréal's net when Karlsson is on the ice as opposed to off of it per 60 minutes.

#1 - Karlsson (20.8)
#2 - Hoffman (20.1)
#3 - Smith (13.1)
#4 - Methot (8.6)
#5 - Lazar (8.5)
#6 - Gryba (5.6)
#7 - Condra (4.4)
#8 - Zibanejad (3.8)
#9 - Stone (2.6)
#10 - Pageau (1.9)
#11 - Borowiecki (0)
_____________________

#12 - Ryan (-0.9)
#13 - MacArthur (-3.6)
#14 - Turris (-5.4)
#15 - Wiercioch (-7.5)
#16 - Neil (-10.3)
#17 - Michalek (-11)
#18 - Legwand (-16.3)
#19 - Chiasson (-30.4)
#20 - Ceci (-34.9)

Unknown - Cowen (regular season -4.5)
Unknown - Prince (regular season 19.8 - only 1 game played)
Unknown - Greening (regular season 3.1)
Unknown - Wideman (unknown)

What immediately stands out here, is that Gryba and Borowiecki have been getting a lot of the blame so far these playoffs when Wiercioch and Ceci have preformed worse.

MacArthur - Turris - Stone
Hoffman - Zibanejad - Ryan
Condra - Pageau - Lazar
X - Smith - X

Methot - Karlsson
Wiercioch - Gryba
Borowiecki - X

The question is at what point do you put in an unknown in the place of someone who's preformed poorly (the devil you know). I'd argue that Cameron made the right decision putting in Smith. Now he has to make another two decisions. Ceci must be benched for either Cowen or Wideman and Greening should be in for one of Michalek or Neil.

Anyways just thought I'd share the numbers because Borowiecki, Gryba, Smith and Greening (especially during the regular season!) were positive surprises. Ceci, Wiercioch, Michalek were negative surprises.

I was a big Greening hater but I think he should play.

Click to read more...

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

have people been blaiming Gryba and Boro? I thought they really stepped it up asid from taking penaltes. Both look better then the reg season.

I agree kinda about Ceci. He has not been good. Worst defender for the sens

Curious.. are you factoring in pp and pk time though?

Benching Ceci for Cowen is not an option. I dont want to see someone thrown to the wolves and having to play on their offside out of no where.

Greening should not play. He is a black hole offensively.

 

[dpw]

No to this thread.

CC is the reason we got the go ahead goal last game.

Greening lol

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Ceci is our second best RHD

There is no taking him out of the lineup, as he goes we do

He hasn't been great but that's the price you pay for having a team full rookies

 

[Sensored]

have people been blaiming Gryba and Boro? I thought they really stepped it up asid from taking penaltes. Both look better then the reg season.

I agree kinda about Ceci. He has not been good. Worst defender for the sens

Curious.. are you factoring in pp and pk time though?

Benching Ceci for Cowen is not an option. I dont want to see someone thrown the the wolves and having to play on their offside out of no where

Personally, I'd like to see Wideman with Borowiecki and Prince with Smith and Michalek. But I doubt Cameron goes with two rookies, he'd have to scratch a lot of veterans even though it'd likely be the right move.

 

[Sensored]

No to this thread.

CC is the reason we got the go ahead goal last game.

Greening lol

Greening probably won't score but the stats say he will at least help get the puck out of the Sens end. Something that's desperately needed and something that Neil is poor at.

 

[Sensored]

Ceci is our second best RHD

There is no taking him out of the lineup, as he goes we do

He hasn't been great but that's the price you pay for having a team full rookies

Ceci's likely injured because he hasnt been skating on off days. Wideman needs to go in for him

 

[Micklebot]

Ok, so I agree Ceci has not been at his best so far, however:

1. This is putting way too much faith in a single stat.
2. Lots of Context is ignored; Linemates? Competition? Zone starts?
3. And this is a big one: Corsi (or SAT as NHL.com calls it) is not going to give you stable results until a sample of about 300 mins, so using a sample of somewhere between 40 and 60 mins won't give you a solid foundation to make any decisions on.

More importantly, who are we going to put in Ceci's place? An AHL dman with Zero NHL experience, or Cowen a LD in a RD slot? Neither is a great option, and Ceci performed better than Cowen in the regular season (particularly once he got away from Cowen), so why do you think that will change in the post season?

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Ceci's likely injured because he hasnt been skating on off days. Wideman needs to go in for him

Ceci is part of the future of this franchise while Wideman might not even part of the team next year

It's sink or swim with Ceci and it's the right call: you play until you can't, Ceci can play so he's playing

 

[Sensored]

Ok, so I agree Ceci has not been at his best so far, however:

1. This is putting way too much faith in a single stat.
2. Lots of Context is ignored; Linemates? Competition? Zone starts?
3. And this is a big one: Corsi (or SAT as NHL.com calls it) is not going to give you stable results until a sample of about 300 mins, so using a sample of somewhere between 40 and 60 mins won't give you a solid foundation to make any decisions on.

More importantly, who are we going to put in Ceci's place? An AHL dman with Zero NHL experience, or Cowen a LD in a RD slot? Neither is a great option, and Ceci performed better than Cowen in the regular season (particularly once he got away from Cowen), so why do you think that will change in the post season?

The problem is far from Ceci's best he's 313th out of 318 skaters so far these playoffs. My point is that at what point do you put in Wideman? Agreed he doesn't have NHL experience but he won the AHL's best defensemen award, scored 61 points this season and has AHL playoff experience. I think Ceci's been bad enough that you need to take that gamble.

And agreed the stat i'm using isn't perfect and I'm not an analytics expert but I believe that it's a conversation worth having.

 

[Micklebot]

Ceci is part of the future of this franchise while Wideman might not even part of the team next year

It's sink or swim with Ceci and it's the right call: you play until you can't, Ceci can play so he's playing

Another point worth considering is Wiercioch and Ceci were pretty good in the last game. Why take him out when he seemed to be playing better?

 

[Scrub*]

Greening shouldn't play at all.

 

[Micklebot]

The problem is far from Ceci's best he's 313th out of 318 skaters so far these playoffs. My point is that at what point do you put in Wideman? Agreed he doesn't have NHL experience but he won the AHL's best defensemen award, scored 61 points this season and has AHL playoff experience. I think Ceci's been bad enough that you need to take that gamble.

And agreed the stat i'm using isn't perfect and I'm not an analytics expert but I believe that it's a conversation worth having.

If you were going to make this move, it would have been last game, not after a convincing win.

When you get down to it, Ceci needs to get playoff experience, and this is how you do that. Putting Wideman in the linup on a wing and a prayer doesn't really do much long term, and the odds of it helping short term are pretty small.

 

[General Zodd]

Greening sucks period!

 

[Sensored]

Greening sucks period!

He sucks less than Neil

 

[Micklebot]

He sucks less than Neil

I don't expect Neil getting 6 mins of icetime instead of Greening to make any difference. Neil at least makes our other players feel a bit safer.

I'd rather Puempel, but a bad ankle makes that impossible. Prince would be ok, but I don't like throwing him in for an elimination game.

 

[Scrub*]

He sucks less than Neil

Neil plays right wing, Greening doesn't.

 

[BK201]

He sucks less than Neil

I disagree, Neil can cycle and hit.

 

[Boud]

I was thinking about this the other day, but kept it to myself as I knew it would be an unpopular opinion but Greening could help us in tougher games like we've played against Montreal. He's fast (at least he was) and can put pressure on Montreal's D and wear them off with hits. He has played very good in the playoffs from what I've seen. The problem is I don't know who you could logically take out to put him in the lineup. I haven't seen last game because of an exam but I was wondering how Smith played? I really liked what Neil did in his first game, aside from being on the ice when Montreal tied the game. Atleast I though he did more than Chiasson. Legwand didn't play good at all so for me it was easy to put Smith in there who can atleast brings the physical element.

Gryba and Boro have been very good for us, especially Boro. They both thrive in physical games and they've been the ones who could handle Montreal's forecheckers like Weise,Prust,DSP, Mitchell,Flynn and Gallagher. Wiercioch and Ceci are too soft to play together, they are getting absolutely demolished in the DZ. They are both scared of getting hit and they rush their decisions unlike Boro and Gryba who are bigger and can take the forecheck. I thought when they put Boro with Ceci and Wiercioch with Gryba in game 3 it was way better than the first two games. I'd much rather have Cowen with Ceci than Wiercioch, atleast Cowen can take a hit and handle the forecheck. I know Wier had a couple points but to me he has been one of the biggest liability on this team with Ceci. It's so easy to strip him off the puck, he never wins puck battles and gets crushed everytime Montreal dump and chase.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Greening hasn't played enough this year to be put in a playoff situation, and when he as played he's been decent at best

He was great last time, that's why he got the contract he did, but that was last time

I wish Sens fans in general stopped living in the past, Greening isn't going to be an Ottawa Senator for much longer, better to focus on playing players who will be

 

[operasen]

MacArthur, Michalek, Condra, Hoffman - which does Greening replace?

None of those guys. Let him replace Neil - but that's not on either.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Play Wideman.... I have a hunch

What were the reasons behind Stone and Silf getting playoff games to start their NHL career? Injuries?

 

[Icelevel]

i don't mind greening coming in. he might have some good physical net drive. the problem is who comes out? because of that problem greening sits again.

 

[Bob Kudelski]

When it comes to Ceci's poor SAT/Rel/60 number, I think this is a case of the numbers not telling the whole story.

Ceci has looked really good this series. I don't get the hate. I've been impressed with his play.

 

[Boud]

Greening hasn't played enough this year to be put in a playoff situation, and when he as played he's been decent at best

He was great last time, that's why he got the contract he did, but that was last time

I wish Sens fans in general stopped living in the past, Greening isn't going to be an Ottawa Senator for much longer, better to focus on playing players who will be

So you we're one of them that didn't want Andy to come in?