Line Combos: Greening should play / Ceci shouldn't

Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by Sensored, Apr 24, 2015.

  1. Sensored

    Sensored Registered User

    Joined:
    May 20, 2004
    Messages:
    938
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    64
    Location:
    Ottawa
    There's been a lot of talk about our line combinations, especially with Hoffman being regulated to the 4th line. So I wanted to take a look at what the ideal combinations are.

    The stat I'm using to quantify a players performance is SAT/Rel/60. For example, Karlsson has a 20.8 which means that during the playoffs the Ottawa Senators have directed 20.8 more shot attempts at Montréal's net when Karlsson is on the ice as opposed to off of it per 60 minutes.

    #1 - Karlsson (20.8)
    #2 - Hoffman (20.1)
    #3 - Smith (13.1)
    #4 - Methot (8.6)
    #5 - Lazar (8.5)
    #6 - Gryba (5.6)
    #7 - Condra (4.4)
    #8 - Zibanejad (3.8)
    #9 - Stone (2.6)
    #10 - Pageau (1.9)
    #11 - Borowiecki (0)
    _____________________

    #12 - Ryan (-0.9)
    #13 - MacArthur (-3.6)
    #14 - Turris (-5.4)
    #15 - Wiercioch (-7.5)
    #16 - Neil (-10.3)
    #17 - Michalek (-11)
    #18 - Legwand (-16.3)
    #19 - Chiasson (-30.4)
    #20 - Ceci (-34.9)

    Unknown - Cowen (regular season -4.5)
    Unknown - Prince (regular season 19.8 - only 1 game played)
    Unknown - Greening (regular season 3.1)
    Unknown - Wideman (unknown)

    What immediately stands out here, is that Gryba and Borowiecki have been getting a lot of the blame so far these playoffs when Wiercioch and Ceci have preformed worse.

    MacArthur - Turris - Stone
    Hoffman - Zibanejad - Ryan
    Condra - Pageau - Lazar
    X - Smith - X

    Methot - Karlsson
    Wiercioch - Gryba
    Borowiecki - X

    The question is at what point do you put in an unknown in the place of someone who's preformed poorly (the devil you know). I'd argue that Cameron made the right decision putting in Smith. Now he has to make another two decisions. Ceci must be benched for either Cowen or Wideman and Greening should be in for one of Michalek or Neil.

    Anyways just thought I'd share the numbers because Borowiecki, Gryba, Smith and Greening (especially during the regular season!) were positive surprises. Ceci, Wiercioch, Michalek were negative surprises.

    I was a big Greening hater but I think he should play.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2015
  2. Vesa Awesaka

    Vesa Awesaka #KeepTheSenate

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2013
    Messages:
    18,236
    Likes Received:
    24
    Trophy Points:
    96
    have people been blaiming Gryba and Boro? I thought they really stepped it up asid from taking penaltes. Both look better then the reg season.

    I agree kinda about Ceci. He has not been good. Worst defender for the sens

    Curious.. are you factoring in pp and pk time though?

    Benching Ceci for Cowen is not an option. I dont want to see someone thrown to the wolves and having to play on their offside out of no where.

    Greening should not play. He is a black hole offensively.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2015
  3. dpw

    dpw Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2004
    Messages:
    732
    Likes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    111
    No to this thread.

    CC is the reason we got the go ahead goal last game.

    Greening lol
     
  4. Do Make Say Think

    Do Make Say Think & Yet & Yet

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    Messages:
    44,791
    Likes Received:
    4,430
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Ceci is our second best RHD

    There is no taking him out of the lineup, as he goes we do

    He hasn't been great but that's the price you pay for having a team full rookies
     
  5. Sensored

    Sensored Registered User

    Joined:
    May 20, 2004
    Messages:
    938
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    64
    Location:
    Ottawa
    Personally, I'd like to see Wideman with Borowiecki and Prince with Smith and Michalek. But I doubt Cameron goes with two rookies, he'd have to scratch a lot of veterans even though it'd likely be the right move.
     
  6. Sensored

    Sensored Registered User

    Joined:
    May 20, 2004
    Messages:
    938
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    64
    Location:
    Ottawa
    Greening probably won't score but the stats say he will at least help get the puck out of the Sens end. Something that's desperately needed and something that Neil is poor at.
     
  7. Sensored

    Sensored Registered User

    Joined:
    May 20, 2004
    Messages:
    938
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    64
    Location:
    Ottawa
    Ceci's likely injured because he hasnt been skating on off days. Wideman needs to go in for him
     
  8. Micklebot

    Micklebot Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    29,665
    Likes Received:
    6,911
    Trophy Points:
    157
    Ok, so I agree Ceci has not been at his best so far, however:

    1. This is putting way too much faith in a single stat.
    2. Lots of Context is ignored; Linemates? Competition? Zone starts?
    3. And this is a big one: Corsi (or SAT as NHL.com calls it) is not going to give you stable results until a sample of about 300 mins, so using a sample of somewhere between 40 and 60 mins won't give you a solid foundation to make any decisions on.

    More importantly, who are we going to put in Ceci's place? An AHL dman with Zero NHL experience, or Cowen a LD in a RD slot? Neither is a great option, and Ceci performed better than Cowen in the regular season (particularly once he got away from Cowen), so why do you think that will change in the post season?
     
  9. Do Make Say Think

    Do Make Say Think & Yet & Yet

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    Messages:
    44,791
    Likes Received:
    4,430
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Ceci is part of the future of this franchise while Wideman might not even part of the team next year

    It's sink or swim with Ceci and it's the right call: you play until you can't, Ceci can play so he's playing
     
  10. Sensored

    Sensored Registered User

    Joined:
    May 20, 2004
    Messages:
    938
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    64
    Location:
    Ottawa
    The problem is far from Ceci's best he's 313th out of 318 skaters so far these playoffs. My point is that at what point do you put in Wideman? Agreed he doesn't have NHL experience but he won the AHL's best defensemen award, scored 61 points this season and has AHL playoff experience. I think Ceci's been bad enough that you need to take that gamble.

    And agreed the stat i'm using isn't perfect and I'm not an analytics expert but I believe that it's a conversation worth having.
     
  11. Micklebot

    Micklebot Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    29,665
    Likes Received:
    6,911
    Trophy Points:
    157
    Another point worth considering is Wiercioch and Ceci were pretty good in the last game. Why take him out when he seemed to be playing better?
     
  12. Scrub*

    Scrub* Team Canada

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2008
    Messages:
    9,289
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Greening shouldn't play at all.
     
  13. Micklebot

    Micklebot Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    29,665
    Likes Received:
    6,911
    Trophy Points:
    157
    If you were going to make this move, it would have been last game, not after a convincing win.

    When you get down to it, Ceci needs to get playoff experience, and this is how you do that. Putting Wideman in the linup on a wing and a prayer doesn't really do much long term, and the odds of it helping short term are pretty small.
     
  14. General Zodd

    General Zodd Registered User

    Joined:
    May 6, 2013
    Messages:
    3,270
    Likes Received:
    57
    Trophy Points:
    71
    Occupation:
    Brain Surgeon
    Greening sucks period! :nod:
     
  15. Sensored

    Sensored Registered User

    Joined:
    May 20, 2004
    Messages:
    938
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    64
    Location:
    Ottawa
    He sucks less than Neil :)
     
  16. Micklebot

    Micklebot Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    29,665
    Likes Received:
    6,911
    Trophy Points:
    157
    I don't expect Neil getting 6 mins of icetime instead of Greening to make any difference. Neil at least makes our other players feel a bit safer.

    I'd rather Puempel, but a bad ankle makes that impossible. Prince would be ok, but I don't like throwing him in for an elimination game.
     
  17. Scrub*

    Scrub* Team Canada

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2008
    Messages:
    9,289
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Neil plays right wing, Greening doesn't.
     
  18. BK201

    BK201 Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2011
    Messages:
    10,538
    Likes Received:
    182
    Trophy Points:
    111
    I disagree, Neil can cycle and hit.
     
  19. Boud

    Boud Registered User

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2011
    Messages:
    9,663
    Likes Received:
    2,295
    Trophy Points:
    126
    I was thinking about this the other day, but kept it to myself as I knew it would be an unpopular opinion but Greening could help us in tougher games like we've played against Montreal. He's fast (at least he was) and can put pressure on Montreal's D and wear them off with hits. He has played very good in the playoffs from what I've seen. The problem is I don't know who you could logically take out to put him in the lineup. I haven't seen last game because of an exam but I was wondering how Smith played? I really liked what Neil did in his first game, aside from being on the ice when Montreal tied the game. Atleast I though he did more than Chiasson. Legwand didn't play good at all so for me it was easy to put Smith in there who can atleast brings the physical element.

    Gryba and Boro have been very good for us, especially Boro. They both thrive in physical games and they've been the ones who could handle Montreal's forecheckers like Weise,Prust,DSP, Mitchell,Flynn and Gallagher. Wiercioch and Ceci are too soft to play together, they are getting absolutely demolished in the DZ. They are both scared of getting hit and they rush their decisions unlike Boro and Gryba who are bigger and can take the forecheck. I thought when they put Boro with Ceci and Wiercioch with Gryba in game 3 it was way better than the first two games. I'd much rather have Cowen with Ceci than Wiercioch, atleast Cowen can take a hit and handle the forecheck. I know Wier had a couple points but to me he has been one of the biggest liability on this team with Ceci. It's so easy to strip him off the puck, he never wins puck battles and gets crushed everytime Montreal dump and chase.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2015
  20. Do Make Say Think

    Do Make Say Think & Yet & Yet

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2007
    Messages:
    44,791
    Likes Received:
    4,430
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Greening hasn't played enough this year to be put in a playoff situation, and when he as played he's been decent at best

    He was great last time, that's why he got the contract he did, but that was last time

    I wish Sens fans in general stopped living in the past, Greening isn't going to be an Ottawa Senator for much longer, better to focus on playing players who will be
     
  21. operasen

    operasen Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2004
    Messages:
    5,300
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    156
    MacArthur, Michalek, Condra, Hoffman - which does Greening replace?

    None of those guys. Let him replace Neil - but that's not on either.
     
  22. Vesa Awesaka

    Vesa Awesaka #KeepTheSenate

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2013
    Messages:
    18,236
    Likes Received:
    24
    Trophy Points:
    96
    Play Wideman.... I have a hunch:sarcasm:

    What were the reasons behind Stone and Silf getting playoff games to start their NHL career? Injuries?
     
  23. Icelevel

    Icelevel -+-+-*-+-*-+-=???

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2009
    Messages:
    19,347
    Likes Received:
    1,285
    Trophy Points:
    169
    i don't mind greening coming in. he might have some good physical net drive. the problem is who comes out? because of that problem greening sits again.
     
  24. Bob Kudelski

    Bob Kudelski Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2006
    Messages:
    1,417
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    96
    Location:
    Ottawa, ON
    When it comes to Ceci's poor SAT/Rel/60 number, I think this is a case of the numbers not telling the whole story.

    Ceci has looked really good this series. I don't get the hate. I've been impressed with his play.
     
  25. Boud

    Boud Registered User

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2011
    Messages:
    9,663
    Likes Received:
    2,295
    Trophy Points:
    126
    So you we're one of them that didn't want Andy to come in?
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice
monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"