going forward: J.Hughes vs Stutzle vs Raymond (originally posted Feb 7, 22)

[nbwingsfan]

Ok - sure, let's put aside the advanced stats which clearly show that in his 19 year-old season, Hughes was a more efficient, more effective and better 3-zone play driver than Raymond this season.

Raymond: 47 GP, 11 G, 24 A, 35 Pts
Hughes: 56 GP, 10 G, 20 A, 30 Pts

Ok, Raymond has more goals and assists.

His most common linemates? And the most prevalent line that Detroit has iced this season? Bertuzzi-Larkin-Hughes.

Hughes' most common linemates last year? Two other rookies - Kuokkonen and Sharangovich. Both of whom were beyond useless when Hughes has been out this season.

I'd say a little context is involved with their "counting stats" - if that's the route you are choosing to base your entire measurement of this players off of. That's not a slight on Raymond who is likely a Calder finalist this year. Hughes' season last year is just undervalued. As I said - it doesn't mean Hughes is always going to stay ahead of Raymond and sure, if you want to say well Raymond is a rookie at 19 while Hughes already had a season under his belt, therefore "I think he's got more untapped upside at the same age" then that's fine too.

But if Detroit fans are going to shout about Raymond's point totals and how that proves he's ahead of everybody else without context, without recognition of other statistical measures of a player's impact on the ice then I'm going to say perhaps a more thorough analysis is warranted.

I never said he’s above everyone else. I’m saying calling Raymond “not even close” to Hughes when he put up more points in less games is pretty ridiculous

 

[BKarchitect]

I never said he’s above everyone else. I’m saying calling Raymond “not even close” to Hughes when he put up more points in less games is pretty ridiculous

Fair enough. I was responding to a rather bombastic comment with another somewhat bombastic comment. Guilty on that front.

I'd say I would take Hughes' 19 year-old season over Raymond's 19 year-old season, all things considered. I recognize that Raymond is having a far superior rookie year compared to Hughes' rookie year though. And honestly, AINEC does apply there. Hughes has just made huge strides since then. If Raymond continues at the same trajectory, it will continue to be an interesting comparison between two of the brightest young stars in the league.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Stutzle will have a significantly better defensive and physical game/impact to Hughes, while still scoring more/similar points.

Wont be close in the future unless Hughes strength improves a lot.

Raymond will be notable 3rd because he plays winger but his developing 2 way game will make him closer.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Ok - sure, let's put aside the advanced stats which clearly show that in his 19 year-old season, Hughes was a more efficient, more effective and better 3-zone play driver than Raymond this season.

"efficient" and "effective" are really strange ways to describe it when you want to ignore the actual tangible stats in favor of much more unreliable and at the end of the game less meaningful stats.

 

[Fear]

Hughes is already the best forward on his team by a decent margin. He has that star quality to him and always looks dangerous, haven't seen that from the other two yet.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Raymond has had far better linemates , deployment and pp 1 time than other 2 from the jump so sure he has more pts ( though he's slowed down tremendously), but Hughes and Stutzle are better actual hockey players ; centers to boot . Each are capable of driving a line . Raymond can't to this point.

 

[BKarchitect]

"efficient" and "effective" are really strange ways to describe it when you want to ignore the actual tangible stats in favor of much more unreliable and at the end of the game less meaningful stats.

Lol they are definitely not “less reliable” than relying on goals and assists to determine who the better hockey player is. Important? Of course - but there again you are completely ignoring context when citing goals and assists.

 

[bsu]

Hughes

Stutzle
Raymond

 

[Pavels Dog]

Lol they are definitely not “less reliable” than relying on goals and assists to determine who the better hockey player is. Important? Of course - but there again you are completely ignoring context when citing goals and assists.

You're using the underlying numbers all wrong. The idea is that they can have predictive value or indicate other "hidden" value of a player.

When judging past performance (Hughes' last season) it's absolutely meaningless that he had a better corsi than Raymond. Hockey games aren't won by corsi.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I wonder how much weighs Hughes current production in the past 2 months or so, for his votes
Lets wait the entire next season before reignite the hype.

I'll admit, Jack Hughes has produced well, played well, but still, he is behind both Raymond
and Stutzle and their trajectory, in my opinion at least.

For example.

Its Raymond's first ever NA season and he is already playing better what Hughes
and producing more points, while being over a year younger.

Do you ever get tired of being so wrong about Jack Hughes? I would have thought after your Caufield thread you'd have had your fill.

But okay, let's talk trajectory.

Raymond had 21p in his first 22gp
14p in his last 25gp (46 point pace)

Meanwhile, Hughes has 12g 27p in his last 28 games.

 

[BKarchitect]

You're using the underlying numbers all wrong. The idea is that they can have predictive value or indicate other "hidden" value of a player.

When judging past performance (Hughes' last season) it's absolutely meaningless that he had a better corsi than Raymond. Hockey games aren't won by corsi.

Sure, exactly - Hughes' underlying metrics absolutely were indicative of a "hidden value" that goals and assists could not fully measure because his linemates were two rum dum rookies not two guys averaging over a PPG. And his further transition to a PPG #1 center this year is validation of that.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Sure, exactly - Hughes' underlying metrics absolutely were indicative of a "hidden value" that goals and assists could not fully measure because his linemates were two rum dum rookies not two guys averaging over a PPG. And his further transition to a PPG #1 center this year is validation of that.

Absolutely. Not disagreeing there. Just saying performance isn't measured in corsi and games aren't won by corsi.

 

[Rydev]

Stutzle will have a significantly better defensive and physical game/impact to Hughes, while still scoring more/similar points.

Wont be close in the future unless Hughes strength improves a lot.

Raymond will be notable 3rd because he plays winger but his developing 2 way game will make him closer.

Stuetzle has only 21 in 40 this year, while Hughes has 27 in 28

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Stuetzle has only 21 in 40 this year, while Hughes has 27 in 28

Was extremely unlucky to begin the season. Producing tons of chances but not cashing. The results are starting to match the play since his move to center .

 

[Rydev]

Was extremely unlucky to begin the season. Producing tons of chances but not cashing. The results are starting to match the play since his move to center .

Stuetzle is a great talent - I was merely pointing out he is behind Jack by a bit in terms of PPG, in response to the poster who said Stuetzle's can produce as much or more

 

[93LEAFS]

I'll go with Hughes for now. Stutzle has looked notably better at the same ages in the NHL, but breaking out isn't guaranteed. I will say, Hughes still has a lot of junior in his game that needs to be somewhat cut out if you really want to rely on him as a franchise all-situations #1 center on a playoff team.

 

[34]

Jack Hughes
Stutzle
Raymond

 

[Hisch13r]

I'll go with Hughes for now. Stutzle has looked notably better at the same ages in the NHL, but breaking out isn't guaranteed. I will say, Hughes still has a lot of junior in his game that needs to be somewhat cut out if you really want to rely on him as a franchise all-situations #1 center on a playoff team.

Stutzle this year as a 19/20 year old has not looked better than Jack did last year as a 19 year old and certainly hasn't been notably better. Both had great underlying metrics with meh production. I don't know what Stutzle's microstats look like this year but Jack's were phenomenal pretty much across the board.

 

[bigbabybuda]

Hughes laps them for me.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Hughes
Raymond
Stutzle

Would love to have all 3 on the wings

 

[Oneiro]

Think this one is going to look comical in a few years. Hughes by a big margin.

 

[bsu]

Think this one is going to look comical in a few years. Hughes by a big margin.

Not really... most logical neutral unbiased fans think Hughes will be the best.... It's just fan bases of the other prospects arguing it for the most part.

 

[Bileur]

Think this one is going to look comical in a few years. Hughes by a big margin.

The part I find funny about this is that it could be about any of the three and make sense.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Think this one is going to look comical in a few years. Hughes by a big margin.

Ha, it's funny I was just thinking the same, but about Stützle absolutely lapping these guys - and soon.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Stuetzle has only 21 in 40 this year, while Hughes has 27 in 28

Hughes has a whole year of development ahead...?

At same age Stutzle marginally outperforming and notably better defensive with much higher physical promise. Stutzle's game is going to revolve around using puck protection too, which will explode when he gets man strength.

Not really... most logical neutral unbiased fans think Hughes will be the best.... It's just fan bases of the other prospects arguing it for the most part.

Which you are anything but, lol.