Speculation: Goalie situation

[Detroit Knights]

Hear me out, hear me out...

Four goalies.

Yeah we added hutchinson already, we're so stacked

 

[Indrid Cold]

Lyon... Detroit Lions deep playoff run.... It's destiny!

 

[Bench]

Yeah we added hutchinson already, we're so stacked

And if we are brave enough to follow @jkutswings , our boys will be literally stacked.

 

[heyfolks]

Lyon... Detroit Lions deep playoff run.... It's destiny!

I can see it now. First round Wings vs Bruins, series tied 3-3, 2 minutes to play in regulation. Lalonde, inspired by Campbell's lockeroom speech, pulls the goalie.

 

[Retire91]

Predicting Lyon will fall apart is one thing, preemptively taking away his starts before it even happens is quite another. As long as Lyon is playing the way he is, or even just close to it, we can't afford a 50/50 split. The margins for making the playoffs are so small at this point. The approach will require patience, Lalonde will need to take this game-by-game, or week-by-week.

Development matters more than playoffs still. Riding a goalie's hot streak is one thing riding it into the ground is another. Jordan Binnington stories are as nice as they are equally improbable. He is about 2 games away form the most games he has ever played in a season and already 6 past the most NHL games, uncharted waters deserve keeping an eye out.

 

[stillwater]

I mean, who would vote for Husso to be the starter? Husso himself, or someone who just wants to f*** the poll up, or has never seen a Red Wing's game.

 

[Bench]

f*** it, I'm all in.

 

[ricky0034]

f*** it, I'm all in.

how about just cutting the entire team and replacing them with Goalies? end to end pool shots by the Goalies whenever they get the puck to try and score goals

 

[Oddbob]

how about just cutting the entire team and replacing them with Goalies? end to end pool shots by the Goalies whenever they get the puck to try and score goals

Maybe we could have a couple in the offensive zone and tied to the boards, and use them like pinball bumpers.

 

[14ari13]

You can certainly wear Lyon out. There are 32 games left and he can’t play them all. 52 games in 82 is pushing it for workload… 52 games in like 60 is untenable.

Anywho, Reimer should only come into play if either of Lyon or Husso are hurt or ineffective, which is certainly possible in the case of Husso. Otherwise, Reimer is just an insurance policy (and a poor one at that) that we don’t need to use. You can keep 2 goalies fresh without a 3rd in the mix, especially when the 3rd one is bad.

Three goalies is dumb, it’s just sometimes you can’t avoid it.

But 3 goalies might just have saved our season as our 3rd goalie has hugely outplayed the other 2. He wasn't supposed to get any starts, and here we are, he is without any doubt our nr 1. He has provided the best goaltending in a quite long time.

 

[Gniwder]

Development matters more than playoffs still. Riding a goalie's hot streak is one thing riding it into the ground is another. Jordan Binnington stories are as nice as they are equally improbable. He is about 2 games away form the most games he has ever played in a season and already 6 past the most NHL games, uncharted waters deserve keeping an eye out.

Both Husso and Lyon are signed for next season, and there aren't any viable UFA options this season. Might as well find out if Lyon can handle the workload this season, because one of them will be the starter next season.

On top of that, both contracts expire next season, and I don't see Husso getting re-signed. Way too many soft goals, and breakaways are automatic against him.

 

[jaster]

Development matters more than playoffs still. Riding a goalie's hot streak is one thing riding it into the ground is another. Jordan Binnington stories are as nice as they are equally improbable. He is about 2 games away form the most games he has ever played in a season and already 6 past the most NHL games, uncharted waters deserve keeping an eye out.

Since he became a pro in 2016-17, Lyon's total starts per year have been....

47
38
41
35
10 (Covid + was often on the taxi squad)
32
38
21 so far this year

So I'm not sure where you're seeing that he is within 2 games of his all-time high, looks like he's still 26 away from it.

Even if he plays 75% of the remaining 32 games, that puts him at 45 games this year. It's above his career average, but not egregiously so. I think that's a fair target, if he keeps up his good play.

 

[jaster]

But 3 goalies might just have saved our season as our 3rd goalie has hugely outplayed the other 2. He wasn't supposed to get any starts, and here we are, he is without any doubt our nr 1. He has provided the best goaltending in a quite long time.

Yes, it worked out that our "#3" goalie has turned out to be vastly more valuable than our #2 goalie. However....

1. Many of us had more confidence in Lyon than in Reimer from Day 1, so that's not too surprising. I'm not even convinced that within the walls of the front office they actually thought of Reimer as #2 and Lyon as #3. I think it was more along the lines of "3 goalies with question marks is better than 2 goalies with question marks.... let's see if something good emerges from this pile of question marks." Having more lottery tickets is better than fewer. But ideally you don't need to depend on lotto tickets...

2. I don't think this reality is a good argument for teams in the future to carry 3 goalies. Unless, again, it's a situation where all of them have question marks and it behooves the team to diversify their funds so to speak. I just don't think a vast majority of teams are in that situation from year to year though. Most teams just don't need the lotto ticket approach.

 

[norrisnick]

Yes, it worked out that our "#3" goalie has turned out to be vastly more valuable than our #2 goalie. However....

1. Many of us had more confidence in Lyon than in Reimer from Day 1, so that's not too surprising. I'm not even convinced that within the walls of the front office they actually thought of Reimer as #2 and Lyon as #3. I think it was more along the lines of "3 goalies with question marks is better than 2 goalies with question marks.... let's see if something good emerges from this pile of question marks." Having more lottery tickets is better than fewer. But ideally you don't need to depend on lotto tickets...

2. I don't think this reality is a good argument for teams in the future to carry 3 goalies. Unless, again, it's a situation where all of them have question marks and it behooves the team to diversify their funds so to speak. I just don't think a vast majority of teams are in that situation from year to year though. Most teams just don't need the lotto ticket approach.

Yeah, the Wings would be no worse off if Husso and Lyon were the only two goalies on the NHL roster. Both get hurt, call up an AHLer like every other NHL team.

 

[jaster]

Yeah, the Wings would be no worse off if Husso and Lyon were the only two goalies on the NHL roster. Both get hurt, call up an AHLer like every other NHL team.

You mean to tell me you don't think Reimer and his 4-6-2 record in 14 appearances with a .894 SV% has added value?

(also, after his first two starts of the season, in mid-October, Reimer has gone 2-6-2 with a .883 SV%)

 

[Retire91]

Since he became a pro in 2016-17, Lyon's total starts per year have been....

47
38
41
35
10 (Covid + was often on the taxi squad)
32
38
21 so far this year

So I'm not sure where you're seeing that he is within 2 games of his all-time high, looks like he's still 26 away from it.

Even if he plays 75% of the remaining 32 games, that puts him at 45 games this year. It's above his career average, but not egregiously so. I think that's a fair target, if he keeps up his good play.

those are not all NHL starts

 

[Gniwder]

those are not all NHL starts

Do goalies skate harder in the NHL? Or is it the hard checks that wear them out?

 

[14ari13]

Yes, it worked out that our "#3" goalie has turned out to be vastly more valuable than our #2 goalie. However....

1. Many of us had more confidence in Lyon than in Reimer from Day 1, so that's not too surprising. I'm not even convinced that within the walls of the front office they actually thought of Reimer as #2 and Lyon as #3. I think it was more along the lines of "3 goalies with question marks is better than 2 goalies with question marks.... let's see if something good emerges from this pile of question marks." Having more lottery tickets is better than fewer. But ideally you don't need to depend on lotto tickets...

2. I don't think this reality is a good argument for teams in the future to carry 3 goalies. Unless, again, it's a situation where all of them have question marks and it behooves the team to diversify their funds so to speak. I just don't think a vast majority of teams are in that situation from year to year though. Most teams just don't need the lotto ticket approach.

I am not sure if I wrote it in this thread, I have mentioned it somewhere, but I think this was the best or one of the best moves Yzerman has done, carrying 3 goalies.
And this is a huge surprise to me as I have never heard of Lyon before this season. I don't follow hockey discussions as much as the majority of the posters on these boards. I believe my last post was a week ago. But I got up 5 AM to watch Oilers vs Knights and man it was a blast and definitely worth getting up 5 am.

Back to the goaltending situation.
My point is that Lyon has vastly outplayed Husso and Reimer, he hasn't just outplayed, he outplayed them by a huge margin.
I don't know if we have had this solid goaltending since Howard's 1st 2-3 seasons. And it shows, January was the best month in what last 10+ years.

It is a bit strange this with goalies. Players get several chances to prove themselves while goalies get only "one" chance.

 

[Oddbob]

I am not sure if I wrote it in this thread, I have mentioned it somewhere, but I think this was the best or one of the best moves Yzerman has done, carrying 3 goalies.
And this is a huge surprise to me as I have never heard of Lyon before this season. I don't follow hockey discussions as much as the majority of the posters on these boards. I believe my last post was a week ago. But I got up 5 AM to watch Oilers vs Knights and man it was a blast and definitely worth getting up 5 am.

Back to the goaltending situation.
My point is that Lyon has vastly outplayed Husso and Reimer, he hasn't just outplayed, he outplayed them by a huge margin.
I don't know if we have had this solid goaltending since Howard's 1st 2-3 seasons. And it shows, January was the best month in what last 10+ years.

It is a bit strange this with goalies. Players get several chances to prove themselves while goalies get only "one" chance.

Not really. There is only 1 goalie, vs 18 skaters. If the goalie poops the bed, you're done, whereas if 1 of the skaters poops the bed, they can survive that.

 

[Henkka]

It is a bit strange this with goalies. Players get several chances to prove themselves while goalies get only "one" chance.

Red Wings goalie history has repeated itself for last 5 years.

1. The starter fails, and backup goes hot.
2. Backup is The Starter for next season, and will fail as a starter.
3. some new guy is signed in
4. Another backup goes hot
5. Repeat
6. Repeat
7. Repeat

2018-19
- Jimmy Howard was the starter, 55 games (23 wins, .909 sv%)
- Bernier was his backup, 30 games (9 wins, .904 sv%)

This was the goalie situation Steve Yzerman inherited from Ken Holland.

2019-20:
- Starter Howard will fail, and backup Bernier will get hot.
- Bernier as starter, 46 games (15 wins, .907 sv%)
- Howard backup, 27 games (2 wins, .882 sv%)


2020-21:
- At off-season, Howard retires and new guy Tomas Greiss will be signed as UFA.
- Former starter Bernier will fail, and Greiss will play more games.
- Greiss as starter, 34 games (.912 sv%)
- Bernier as backup, 24 games (.914 sv%)


2021-22:
- At off-season, Bernier is traded away, and new guy Alex Nedeljkovic traded in.
- Former starter Greiss will fail, and Ned will play more games.
- Nedeljkovic as starter, 59 games (20 wins .901 sv%)
- Greiss as backup, 31 games (10 wins .891 sv%)

2022-23:
- At off-season, Greiss is traded away, and new guy Ville Husso traded in as UFA.
- Former starter Nedeljkovic will fail, and Husso will play more games.
- Husso as starter, 56 games (26 wins .896 sv%)
- Nedeljkovic as backup, 15 games (5 wins .895 sv%)
- Magnus Hellberg also as a backup.

2023-24:
- Nedeljkovic is waived already at last season, and new guys James Reimer and Alex Lyon are signed in as UFAs.
- Former starter Husso will fail, also Reimer will fail, and 3rd goalie Lyon will play most games.
- Lyon as starter, 21 games (13 wins .922 sv%)
- Husso as backup, 18 games (9 wins .893 sv%)
- Reimer as backup, 14 games (4 wins .894 sv%)

So it's the same damn formula already for last 5 seasons.

How to predict next season?

2024-25:
- So if Lyon the starter for 2023-24... he will probably fail at 2024-25.
- Husso will proably fail too, and will be waived/traded.
- At mid-season, Sebastian Cossa is called up as a backup, and before season end, he becomes the starter....

And after being hot, Cossa will fail, and Augustine will jump in...

...this circle could go forever.

 

[jaster]

those are not all NHL starts

 

[HellasLEAF]

Husso looks set to return. Question all.

Has Lyon taken over now as #1. Or with Husso back is it really down to who is playing better/who is winning..

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

Four goalies.

 

[Gniwder]

Red Wings goalie history has repeated itself for last 5 years.

1. The starter fails, and backup goes hot.
2. Backup is The Starter for next season, and will fail as a starter.
3. some new guy is signed in
4. Another backup goes hot
5. Repeat
6. Repeat
7. Repeat

2018-19
- Jimmy Howard was the starter, 55 games (23 wins, .909 sv%)
- Bernier was his backup, 30 games (9 wins, .904 sv%)

This was the goalie situation Steve Yzerman inherited from Ken Holland.

2019-20:
- Starter Howard will fail, and backup Bernier will get hot.
- Bernier as starter, 46 games (15 wins, .907 sv%)
- Howard backup, 27 games (2 wins, .882 sv%)


2020-21:
- At off-season, Howard retires and new guy Tomas Greiss will be signed as UFA.
- Former starter Bernier will fail, and Greiss will play more games.
- Greiss as starter, 34 games (.912 sv%)
- Bernier as backup, 24 games (.914 sv%)


2021-22:
- At off-season, Bernier is traded away, and new guy Alex Nedeljkovic traded in.
- Former starter Greiss will fail, and Ned will play more games.
- Nedeljkovic as starter, 59 games (20 wins .901 sv%)
- Greiss as backup, 31 games (10 wins .891 sv%)

2022-23:
- At off-season, Greiss is traded away, and new guy Ville Husso traded in as UFA.
- Former starter Nedeljkovic will fail, and Husso will play more games.
- Husso as starter, 56 games (26 wins .896 sv%)
- Nedeljkovic as backup, 15 games (5 wins .895 sv%)
- Magnus Hellberg also as a backup.

2023-24:
- Nedeljkovic is waived already at last season, and new guys James Reimer and Alex Lyon are signed in as UFAs.
- Former starter Husso will fail, also Reimer will fail, and 3rd goalie Lyon will play most games.
- Lyon as starter, 21 games (13 wins .922 sv%)
- Husso as backup, 18 games (9 wins .893 sv%)
- Reimer as backup, 14 games (4 wins .894 sv%)

So it's the same damn formula already for last 5 seasons.

How to predict next season?

2024-25:
- So if Lyon the starter for 2023-24... he will probably fail at 2024-25.
- Husso will proably fail too, and will be waived/traded.
- At mid-season, Sebastian Cossa is called up as a backup, and before season end, he becomes the starter....

And after being hot, Cossa will fail, and Augustine will jump in...

...this circle could go forever.

We're gonna need to draft more goalies, lol.

 

[JediOrderPizza]

Husso looks set to return. Question all.

Has Lyon taken over now as #1. Or with Husso back is it really down to who is playing better/who is winning..

Looks like Lyon and trying to get Husso some work as well eventually.