Getzlaf/Perry rentals?

[TorstenFrings]

The list of good teams with cap space is very short. And with his injury history he'd be an idiot to take a short term deal. So is he willing to take a 5M 7 year deal as opposed to an 8 year 7M deal? That's 21M left on the table for a guy who already has a cup.

There are quite a few good teams who could get into good enough shape to afford one of them in time, especially with two buyout options. Only NYR and Boston seem to be too far off the path.

Your milage on what is a "good team" may wary, but St. Louis is a budget team that always has cap room to spare and for a center they may finally spend.
Washington, LA, Detroit, Pittsburgh and NJ seem in good shape. Philadelphia and Vancouver have all the money to buy out even their biggest, longest, stupidest contracts and could feasibly make it happen too.

 

[Ducksgo*]

Ugh just thinking of Getz and Perry and Selanne leaving all in the same year gives me jitters..... What if?

 

[Corey Perry*]

Ugh just thinking of Getz and Perry and Selanne leaving all in the same year gives me jitters..... What if?

Then we go all Edmonton, get the next 3 top picks, and draft McDavid, etc.

 

[AngelDuck]

No way in hell both of them leave. I think Getzlaf is a sure thing to re-sign. He ain't moving his wife and kids now I don't think

 

[Ducksgo*]

No way in hell both of them leave. I think Getzlaf is a sure thing to re-sign. He ain't moving his wife and kids now I don't think

I hope not that's fing scary! But it could happen and Etem Holland and Palms aren't ready for first and 2nd line roles. Ughhhh I hate the position we are in. Especially after buying season seats with my best bud this season and next

 

[Ducks DVM]

There are quite a few good teams who could get into good enough shape to afford one of them in time, especially with two buyout options. Only NYR and Boston seem to be too far off the path.

Your milage on what is a "good team" may wary, but St. Louis is a budget team that always has cap room to spare and for a center they may finally spend.
Washington, LA, Detroit, Pittsburgh and NJ seem in good shape. Philadelphia and Vancouver have all the money to buy out even their biggest, longest, stupidest contracts and could feasibly make it happen too.

With a cap of 64.3M, with current rosters - players need to get to 20 man rosters, notable free agents

LA - 16M, 3F, 3D, 1G; Gagne, Clifford, Scuderi, Voynov, Martinez, Bernier
Washington 20M, 4F, 3D, 2G; Ribiero, Alzner, Holtby, Neuwirth
Pittsburgh 12M, 4F, 1D - Getzlaf isn't going to play on the third line, not happening anyway
Detroit 19M, 2F, 2D, 1G; Howard, Filppula - we should assume they want a 1D more, can't do both
NJ 32M, 8F; Elias, Zajak, Zubrus, Henrique, Zidlicky, (Larsson the following year)
St. Louis 32M, 5F, 4D; McDonald, Stewart, Berglund, Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk
Philadelphia 7M, 3F; Timonen, (Schenn, Giroux, Couturier ALL the next year)
Vancouver 9M, 3F, 2D; Raymond, Edler (clearly Luongo will make a difference here)

Those teams, if they give Getzlaf 8M, will have issues signing their own free agents or filling out a roster and still being a "good team" IMO. Keep in mind that's to a roster of only 20, not 23, and that's not taking into account bonuses, and that's just roster players needed to get to a number, not a useful mix necessarily.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Keep in mind that as rentals the Ducks can keep half their cap hit. That means 1st line players for 2.6M (prorated) to a cap team. That's huge.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Keep in mind that as rentals the Ducks can keep half their cap hit. That means 1st line players for 2.6M (prorated) to a cap team. That's huge.

Do I understand though that they would then also have to keep half the salary too? I know it may not impede a deal, I'm just looking for clarification. I'm not yet clear on that new aspect of the CBA.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Do I understand though that they would then also have to keep half the salary too? I know it may not impede a deal, I'm just looking for clarification. I'm not yet clear on that new aspect of the CBA.

It appears that you keep the same percentage of salary and cap. But that should also allow you to demand a higher return, and for what's going to be a month at most that's not too big a deal in real salary.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

I think they'll both get 7 years at about 7 million per year, seems about fair, right?
With the changes in the revenue sharing system i don't see any issues signing them, if they WANT to be here

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I think they'll both get 7 years at about 7 million per year, seems about fair, right?
With the changes in the revenue sharing system i don't see any issues signing them, if they WANT to be here

BM needs to offer 8 years each. Aside from the actual amount of money offered, it's the one thing that says "we want you to be here".

 

[Paul4587]

In 8 years they'll be 35 which is somewhat worrying. But if we're going to sign anyone to 8 year contracts I agree that it should be those two. We've hopefully got another 3-4 years of prime production left in both of them before they start their decline.

 

[Lord Flashheart]

8y x 6.25m.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Offer them 10,10,10,7,5,5,5,5. Cap hit of 7.125M.

That's how the other teams will do it.

 

[Corey Perry*]

In 8 years they'll be 35 which is somewhat worrying. But if we're going to sign anyone to 8 year contracts I agree that it should be those two. We've hopefully got another 3-4 years of prime production left in both of them before they start their decline.

I can think of a lot of good players who were still very good at age 35. Who says they have to decline then?

 

[Paul4587]

I can think of a lot of good players who were still very good at age 35. Who says they have to decline then?

Of course there are a lot of good players at age 35 (there are also a ton of ex superstars who are barely hanging onto jobs at that age). I'm hoping those two will be as well but there's a very small chance they'll be producing at 35 the way they have been the past few years. They don't necessarily have to decline in their early 30s like I said but that is when the majority of forwards production does go down - just look at Lecavalier, Thornton, Marleau or Heatley to name a few examples. They're still great players who are still producing (in Thornton's case he's still an above average no.1 centre) but they're not coming close to the numbers they were putting up in their mid to late 20s.

I am all for signing them to 8 year deals (I was even in favor of handing Perry a retirement contract pre lockout) but chances are we'll only get another 3 or 4 really elite years, if that. After that we just have to hope their play declines slowly so we still get good value for the last half of the contract.

 

[Vipers31]

I'm thinking $6.8M cap hit. I don't really get the feeling we're going to look at 7/8-year deals.

 

[snarktacular]

Historically, peak production happens much earlier than a lot of people think. I think it's like 25 YO or something for forwards. I've seen people do this with all players and also for just stars/HOF players. The results come out pretty much the same.

So just going by that, Getzlaf and Perry are already past their primes.

 

[Paul4587]

Historically, peak production happens much earlier than a lot of people think. I think it's like 25 YO or something for forwards. I've seen people do this with all players and also for just stars/HOF players. The results come out pretty much the same.

So just going by that, Getzlaf and Perry are already past their primes.

Yeah forwards on average peak at about 24-25 and then maintain a similar level of production to about 28-29. Once they hit their early thirties the majority of forwards production plummets. There was a good study on the history board I think that verifies that.

Obviously there are peak exceptions (the Sedins, St. Louis) and some guys will still produce a lot well into their 30s (Iginla, post 35 Selanne etc) but it still doesn't match prime production.

As I said, I think both have another few years left of prime production. I think Perry has already peaked (I can see a couple more 40 goal years from him but I doubt he hits 50 again). Getzlaf may have another big year in him I still think he's capable of beating the 91 points that is his career high.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

While I can't and won't dispute whatever numbers are out there on the onset of decline, many guys play very well into their mid 30's. There is always a risk signing anybody beyond a year or two. But unfortunately that's the way the game is played these days. Getz and Perry will be swamped with 7 year offers if they hit ufa. Unless the Ducks feel 7 years is too big a risk they really have to add the extra year to show these guys how much they mean to us. Offering them 6 or 7 years will not go over well. The reality is we really are only gambling one extra year. And by the time that year gets here their salary may not be so bad even if they are producing at a lower level.

I just think if BM is serious about keeping them he has to offer 8 years.

 

[Paul4587]

I just think if BM is serious about keeping them he has to offer 8 years.

I agree, he has to offer the 8 years. I'm just pointing out that we can realistically expect 3-4 more years of similar production before they decline. How fast they decline will determine whether or not they're worth the final 4 years but for players of Getzlaf and Perry's caliber, you have to take that risk or you're not going to keep them.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I agree, he has to offer the 8 years. I'm just pointing out that we can realistically expect 3-4 more years of similar production before they decline. How fast they decline will determine whether or not they're worth the final 4 years but for players of Getzlaf and Perry's caliber, you have to take that risk or you're not going to keep them.

I understand. I didn't mean to sound like I was disagreeing with your point. You don't do that with everybody but if we don't do that here and now with these guys, just when will we step up and commit to any star players we have? And why would anybody good ever want to come here knowing we are so cheap (if we don't do it now)?

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

I understand. I didn't mean to sound like I was disagreeing with your point. You don't do that with everybody but if we don't do that here and now with these guys, just when will we step up and commit to any star players we have? And why would anybody good ever want to come here knowing we are so cheap (if we don't do it now)?

I'd give them 8 years, assuming a reasonable bounceback this year. The statistical analysis ignores a critical point (as they so often do), that top-end point producers often experience a decline in production prior to becoming truly elite players, as they learn that winning games is more than their personal point totals. Yzerman did that. Sakic did that. Modano did that. Selanne did that. Etc.

If Getzlaf settles in to being a consistent 70-80 point player who's presence and savvy are worth what Yzerman's were, I don't care if he never scores 91.