OT: General OT Stuff (Infinity+3)(No Politics/Spoilers, see OP)

[twabby]

That Euro track is catastrophic for Miami (and other SE Florida cities). It seems like an absolute worst case scenario:

That would have it plowing directly through the most densely populated portions of Florida:

 

[RandyHolt]

This one is catastrophic for the west coast, the latest EPS ensemble. EPS is an ensemble of the Euro, a good model at this range. Again models this far out are often 200 miles off course, and the majority of models have it heading more east, but here it is. Make sure to click play, and a good bookmark.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...pn_frzn&runtime=2017090612&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

I learned some weather model 101 stuff which I will share. OP's are Operational Runs = Globals on Tropical Tidbits. Their related ensembles (next tab) are the EPS (ECMWS ("Euro") ensemble), GEFS (GFS ensemble) and GEPS (Canadian ensemble). Along with the main run of the operational model, they run a series of ensemble forecasts at lower fidelity, basically as a way of testing the validity of the operational model under slightly different conditions. So if the ensembles don't support the operational run, that tells you not to place too much faith in it.

Check out the Barbuda weather station data. Scroll down to its last gust wind reading. It stopped recording at 155mph before getting shredded.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Models I saw this morning make it look like Miami is going to take this head on as a Cat 4.

 

[RandyHolt]

Not much changed overnight, except a few local mets seeing scenarios that we could get a few remnants in DC after the main event. Miami is still poised to take the initial brunt, but consensus leans towards FL being raked vs full landfall trending more towards SCish. Here it all is, spelled out for us.



And a good animation showing the steering. A hurricane is like a leaf in a creek, it only goes where taken.

There is an outer ring sighting at the end of this gif which appears to be a concentric eyewall that can hang on its own and not merge in an eyewall rebuild. It's called an OEW - Outer Eye Wall.

The Eye - and look for the "spike" rotating along the upper level of the eye.

 

[RandyHolt]

Stay on your toes Tabby. Euro re-cuts the Keys <click play> and then buzzsaws FLA in half on its latest run. A nightmare model run for all of FLA.

 

[twabby]

Yeeeeah I just saw that one. Not good for anyone as I don't really know if that run even spares Miami that much (and of course it hits Orlando and Tampa pretty hard).

More and more it looks like there is no model that has it avoiding significant damage to Florida and the problem is there's just nowhere for people to run given the geography of the state.

I'm about as well prepared as I can be (was able to get plenty of water and supplies) and I live in a newer home away from the coast so I am planning on hunkering down unless advised to evacuate.

 

[RandyHolt]

The next model runs will be telling. You are doing what I would do far away from where it makes landfall/away from storm surge risks.... hunker down in your bunker after loading up on party supplies.

 

[strungout]

In our time....has a hurricane ever made landfall right dead center in Miami?? I remember Andrew was more Homestead than downtown Miami....but man....this is going to be nuts if it hits as a 4.

 

[hockeykicker]

In our time....has a hurricane ever made landfall right dead center in Miami?? I remember Andrew was more Homestead than downtown Miami....but man....this is going to be nuts if it hits as a 4.

katrina crushed miami

 

[RandyHolt]

Sure enough it appears the lone wolf ensemble I shared yesterday afternoon may verify, while all others were far east.

I shared that for the Tampanians here, but only because I put stock into it first because it was the Euro, and also because as we get closer, forecasts get MUCH more accurate.

Every model hitting land is not good. More like hopeless.

 

[twabby]

We're actually called "Tampans".(make your own joke )

I feel just terrible for people in South Florida and those already hit in the Caribbean and in Houston earlier. I was always one of those "why don't you just evacuate???" people but there are many reasons people simply can't evacuate (if you're elderly or poor for example).

Hopefully the unreliable NAM model verifies since its latest run has it go into the Atlantic, but I highly doubt it at this point.

 

[RandyHolt]

One thing i learned is that once a cane makes its way near the US, it's natural inclination is to head east, presumed via gulf stream etc. It needs help to head west. I am still not writing off the eye missing florida completely. Of course the eye is regenerating and getting bigger as we speak but Florida is narrow, and canes sometimes just surprise and go out to sea like Matthew last year.

That eye reforming right now is easy to see on Cuba Radar... maybe it won't be fully rebuilt if he does hit land.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

https://www.equifaxsecurity2017.com/potential-impact/


Check if you were part of the breach...

Equifax said Thursday that 143 million people could be affected by a recent data breach in which cybercriminals stole information including names, Social Security numbers, birth dates, addresses, and the numbers of some driver's licenses.
Additionally, credit card numbers for about 209,000 people were exposed, as was "personal identifying information" on roughly 182,000 customers involved in credit report disputes.

 

[g00n]

https://www.equifaxsecurity2017.com/potential-impact/


Check if you were part of the breach...

Equifax said Thursday that 143 million people could be affected by a recent data breach in which cybercriminals stole information including names, Social Security numbers, birth dates, addresses, and the numbers of some driver's licenses.
Additionally, credit card numbers for about 209,000 people were exposed, as was "personal identifying information" on roughly 182,000 customers involved in credit report disputes.

This whole thing is a turd. If you "enroll" you'll either be told you're not part of the breach or you're being considered for credit monitoring, and they'll sign you up for a free trial of their identity protection product. And that's after entering the last 6 digits of your SS#, which allows the first digits to be guessed. It's also asking the company that failed to protect your data to protect your data.

Cnet has been tracking the process

https://www.cnet.com/how-to/equifax-hack-find-out-if-you-were-one-of-143-million-hacked/

 

[RandyHolt]

Yep - giving out 6 numbers of your soc seems stupid right after being told you may have been comprised. Are they that inept that they cannot contact US instead?

and trustedidpremier.com will be the next one hacked. Book it.

Oh and equifax execs cashed out days after being hacked (claiming its a coincidence duh) before telling us the bad news 6 weeks later. Only 1.8M - chump change in this era.

They should just monitor our credit for us instead of making us re-enroll.

 

[Hivemind]

China already has all my data after the OPM breach anyway.

 

[strungout]

I've already given up in terms of being worried about my info being stolen/hacked or whatnot. Just always checking statements and balances and making sure nothing new is opened with credit monitoring.

 

[RandyHolt]

It's looking like the Keys will be taking it on the chin

 

[twabby]

It's looking like the Keys will be taking it on the chin

My brother's in-laws safely evacuated the Keys days ago but they are heartbroken about the new forecasts. They are looking at potentially not having a home in 24 hours.

 

[g00n]

Yep - giving out 6 numbers of your soc seems stupid right after being told you may have been comprised. Are they that inept that they cannot contact US instead?

and trustedidpremier.com will be the next one hacked. Book it.

Oh and equifax execs cashed out days after being hacked (claiming its a coincidence duh) before telling us the bad news 6 weeks later. Only 1.8M - chump change in this era.

They should just monitor our credit for us instead of making us re-enroll.

It's a ******* half-measure "solution".

I'm also hearing that there's a clause in the enrollment that waives your right to sue in the future. Yeah, F that.

 

[RandyHolt]

My brother's in-laws safely evacuated the Keys days ago but they are heartbroken about the new forecasts. They are looking at potentially not having a home in 24 hours.

I feel like its a back and forth at this point, we won't know for certain until it makes the turn north. The overall trend continues west (naturally, after the east coast has been most to evac thus far) but it may just be normal variations at this point. There is a reason the NHC uses that ginormous cone.

The Euro, however shows landfall in Cuba, which would weaken Irma, and may be just enough to help minimize FL damage. Probably not much, but it just needs to suck a little bit of energy out, to help.

 

[RandyHolt]

It's a ******* half-measure "solution".

I'm also hearing that there's a clause in the enrollment that waives your right to sue in the future. Yeah, F that.

Can you imagine the slew of personal questions we'd get asked if we all blindly proceeded to continue? Its just one site after another giving out our personal info, to protect your personal info.

Those secret questions are so ****ing annoying too. I answer in all lies, every time. Whats my birthday? The oldest allowed date in your antiqued drop down boxes.

 

[twabby]

I'm at the point where I feel like I've prepared for the storm so much that now I have nothing to do. It's a good thing that I feel prepared but man this feeling is so helpless. In ~55 hours **** is about to get real. I've dealt with close calls before but nothing like this.

 

[usiel]

I'm at the point where I feel like I've prepared for the storm so much that now I have nothing to do. It's a good thing that I feel prepared but man this feeling is so helpless. In ~55 hours **** is about to get real. I've dealt with close calls before but nothing like this.

Hey good luck down there... Can't hurt to throw an extra pagan sacrifice Zeus's way for some extra luck.

I can barely handle the heat up here in the DC area so I'll never move to a lower latitude but hard to imagine living on top of that the east coast areas that have to deal with hurricane threats. I will die without AC .

 

[Hivemind]

Buy some adult magazines for when the internet goes down.