General COVID-19 talk, NHL remains suspended MOD Warning post #1
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I just wanted to say that I do work in a scientific field and very much believe in scientific models. The issue with models though, is that flawed data in, means flawed data out. We know now that the Imperial model was extremely flawed and pretty much broadly across the world of epidemiology the models have been significantly adjusted downward. As for economic projections, I am not following any of that, I am just assuming we are heading towards one based on the sheer number of unemployed people and the fact that we halted everything so abruptly. A recession will severely harm people, but that is more of an indirect effect and I really wish I hadn't mentioned it because it opens you up to be attacked about only caring about the economy.
Bandit
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Yeah and I find it hilarious that I see people who I KNOW have been used car salesmen all their lives posting dumbass quotes from Elon Musk. f***ing dude is so insulated by his wealth he could jump into an erupting volcano and not break a sweat, yet average people who make in a year what he makes in a day think he speaks for them. Insane.
Bandit
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I wasn’t aiming that directly at you, sorry if it seemed I was. Believe me, I want this shit over ASAP too. I’m just wanting us to get some “data in” that isn’t flawed so we can make a decent decision on where to go next that isn’t based on hope alone.
KINGS17
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Technically, the flu shot is a vaccine. A new vaccine is created every 6-12 months to combat the range of flu viruses the experts feel will be most virulent during the upcoming flu season. Sometimes they get it wrong when it comes to the strain of flu for which the vaccine is created, and people who get the flu vaccine catch the flu anyway.
I encourage you to have a look at this article on the 1968 Hong Kong flu virus. It was very contagious and a vaccine to address this particular mutation of the "flu" was not developed right away. My guess is the biggest contributor to it dying out was herd immunity.
Coronavirus Crisis: Lesson of 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic | National Review
Just the statistics on the Hong Kong flu:
Hundreds of thousands were hospitalized in the U.S. as the disease hit all 50 states by Christmas 1968. Like COVID-19, It was fatal primarily to people older than 65 with preexisting conditions.
The Centers for Disease Control reports that it killed more than 1 million people worldwide, more than 100,000 of them in the U.S. Luckily, a vaccine was developed early — in August 1969. But the Hong Kong flu is still with us as a seasonal malady.
I know the way in which the Hong Kong flu was dealt with is something you will not agree with, but maybe it will give you a better understanding of where those with a different view are coming from in their assessment of the situation.
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KINGS17
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The Dow may be having a record recovery over the last 10 days or so, but it isn't really setting any records. I expect another pull back once it becomes evident that the shutdown has done some permanent, or long-term damage to some industries, such as hospitality, travel, aircraft manufacturing and the like. Many small businesses have failed and will never return. Someone new will eventually take the place of those small businesses, but it isn't going to snap back just like that.
Rich people don't care? Some maybe, but I think there are a number of them who do like Mark Cuban, Bill Gates, Larry Page, Michael Bloomberg, Richard Branson and there are more who have given untold hundreds of millions back through philanthropy. Unlike the gears of government bureaucracy, half of their money isn't wasted on administrative costs. Instead, most of it gets to a place where it does the most good. Another good thing about these people is they earned it. I have never seen government earn much money.
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KINGS17
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The projections, better known as "models" have been egregiously in error from the very start, and continue to be in error.
The data does support that the curve has been flattened. Take a look at the logarithmic graphs for total cases and total deaths on this site. The curve is flat, and would likely be heading slightly in the downward direction were it not for New York and New Jersey.
United States Coronavirus: 1,095,210 Cases and 63,861 Deaths - Worldometer
The logarithmic graph shows the rate of change. When the data on a logarithmic scale becomes flat, it means there is little to no rate of change. For the line to become flat on a linear scale it would require there to be no new cases, and no additional deaths. I don't think we are going to wait around for that to happen.
When Should I Use Logarithmic Scales in My Charts and Graphs?
KINGS17
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Just wondering regarding the politicization of this, why did Newsom change his order to close all state beaches, to just the beaches in Orange County?
Newsom closes Orange Co. beaches, O.C. Sheriff says he won't enforce order
After news trickled out via the California Police Chief’s Association that Newsom was on the precipice of shutting down all state beaches and parks, Newsom rolled back his proposed action to the lone Southern California county.
Sheriff of Orange County says he will not enforce Newsom's order.
Newsom said it comes down to the county to enforce the order. It took little time for Orange County officials to summarily set aside the order. Orange County Sheriff Don Barnes announced Thursday that his agency would not take any enforcement action.
Newsom closes Orange Co. beaches, O.C. Sheriff says he won't enforce order
After news trickled out via the California Police Chief’s Association that Newsom was on the precipice of shutting down all state beaches and parks, Newsom rolled back his proposed action to the lone Southern California county.
Sheriff of Orange County says he will not enforce Newsom's order.
Newsom said it comes down to the county to enforce the order. It took little time for Orange County officials to summarily set aside the order. Orange County Sheriff Don Barnes announced Thursday that his agency would not take any enforcement action.
Raccoon Jesus
Todd McLellan is an inside agent
jfont
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COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California
This is a paper on seroprevalence in Santa Clara County that mentions a similar seroprevalence study in LA(I believe the one done by USC) and they are showing very similar IFR results. It appears that the IFR is somewhere around .17 in those studies, so about 1.7 in every 1,000 people who are infected with Covid 19 pass away. The study used seroprevalence data from 3 weeks ago to account for a potential lag in deaths. It's interesting data that really shows that we massively over projected the danger of this disease. Again, I don't blame anyone for being cautious when we knew so little, but more and more we are finding that the disease is much less deadly than we thought.
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From what I understand patients with tier 3 conditions that could imminently cause emergencies were allowed. Heart valve replacements and tumor removals aren't always life threatening, in many cases they are just something that needs to be done within a couple years. I guess I am interpreting the statements differently than you.
And it's not like this is a California thing, 36 states + DC are doing the same thing. It was federal guidance/recommendations from the Surgeon General and the CMS. We're actually allowing this earlier than other states, which again, is because of how well we've done. It makes me happy that we are in a better position than the other states, and that we haven't been staying home for nothing. That's nothing short of amazing given how our population and tourism here make it a proverbial tinderbox for bad infections.
And maybe Sweden went for a shorter, extreme period but their highest new case day was yesterday. Their graph doesn't look all that different than ours and that's pretty bad considering their low population density and lack of risk factors like we have here. They also have a top-5 health care system. Sweden is not a good example for anything COVID, really. I personally think the government got a little cocky, they are always on top of health care and quality of life lists and it bit them in the ass.
I get that there's always going to be infections, and I'm generally with you that it's time we start looking at making some moves. But two weeks is huge for a virus with a 14 day max incubation. Most people also fight it off in that time, so that helps with asymptomatic cases.
Here's an interesting article on how flu deaths are counted. I've looked at the CDC estimations lately and a lot of it puzzled me, because it conflicted with other data I saw. This is probably why.
Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges
This interested me: "I decided to call colleagues around the country who work in other emergency departments and in intensive care units to ask a simple question: how many patients could they remember dying from the flu? Most of the physicians I surveyed couldn’t remember a single one over their careers. Some said they recalled a few. All of them seemed to be having the same light bulb moment I had already experienced: For too long, we have blindly accepted a statistic that does not match our clinical experience."
When I thought about it, I don't know anyone who has died of flu/complications and I'm not young. I do know several people who OD'd on opiates and even more that have died in car accidents. That doesn't really mean anything because it's just one set of experiences, and people are more likely to tell others "hey, so and so died in a car accident" than "so and so died from the flu". But if that many people are actually dying from the flu you'd think I'd know one. I also had no idea they counted pneumonia deaths.
It's obvious COVID is not as lethal as original estimates, but looking at only flu deaths that are confirmed, the mortality rate in the US is something like .005% during the worst years. In good years its .001%.
Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges
This interested me: "I decided to call colleagues around the country who work in other emergency departments and in intensive care units to ask a simple question: how many patients could they remember dying from the flu? Most of the physicians I surveyed couldn’t remember a single one over their careers. Some said they recalled a few. All of them seemed to be having the same light bulb moment I had already experienced: For too long, we have blindly accepted a statistic that does not match our clinical experience."
When I thought about it, I don't know anyone who has died of flu/complications and I'm not young. I do know several people who OD'd on opiates and even more that have died in car accidents. That doesn't really mean anything because it's just one set of experiences, and people are more likely to tell others "hey, so and so died in a car accident" than "so and so died from the flu". But if that many people are actually dying from the flu you'd think I'd know one. I also had no idea they counted pneumonia deaths.
It's obvious COVID is not as lethal as original estimates, but looking at only flu deaths that are confirmed, the mortality rate in the US is something like .005% during the worst years. In good years its .001%.
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KINGS17
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No, the data doesn't support the continued lock down except in a few limited California hot spots.
I read an interesting article that relates to Newsom going after beaches yesterday. It was https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5550191 , its an article where the provincial health officer from BC discusses how rare outdoor transmission is and the importance of outdoor activities to the ehalth of the populace. She cites this study: Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 that looked at 318 clusters and nearly all were indoor transmissions and only one potential could have been an outdoor transmission. That is backed by this study:
Closed environments facilitate secondary transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) this shows that outdoor transmission is more than 18 times less likely than indoor transmission.
Another interesting study was one done on Western Europe, it claims that the lockdown did not have any evident impact on the epidemic. They argue that there was a general decay trend shown that appeared 2-3 weeks before the lockdown was expected to start showing it's effects: Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic.
Closed environments facilitate secondary transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) this shows that outdoor transmission is more than 18 times less likely than indoor transmission.
Another interesting study was one done on Western Europe, it claims that the lockdown did not have any evident impact on the epidemic. They argue that there was a general decay trend shown that appeared 2-3 weeks before the lockdown was expected to start showing it's effects: Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic.
Raccoon Jesus
Todd McLellan is an inside agent
I read one on running yesterday as well that pointed out the same thing--that outdoors it's not just exposure, it's outdoors, prolonged unmasked exposure.
This really does make sense. What they could do with beaches is leave them open, but close the restrooms, showers, sinks, and so on. That's where diseases are spread, not out in the open. That could be another potential problem, but if people want to go to the beach they can deal with that.
The abstract of that study is confusing, but it would be interesting to see his conclusions. He's not clear on what he means by trajectory, but if he's talking about infection rate that's a difficult extrapolation because of the high transmission rate. With such different conditions during and before a lockdown you can't really do that, even one small group can spread infections rapidly. And if he is talking about transmission rates with trajectory, you can't say that strategies may not have saved any lives because transmission and death rates are two completely different things.
It's unsurprising that abstract is all over the place because phenomenology is not a pure scientific study that relies on data, in fact I wouldn't call it a science at all but a philosophical study. It is a hybrid of philosophy and science that relies on first person experience and intuition to supplement data to reach conclusions. Great care must be used in this type of study because results can easily be unintentionally biased.
Keep in mind the guy who authored this is not a doctor, he's a RA III, which usually make under $50K per year.
King'sPawn
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Just to clarify, there is a flu vaccine. I understand it's just that the influenza virus mutates so rapidly, the immune system doesn't recognize future iterations to attack it.
Unfortunately, people misunderstand these concepts and thus feel the flu vaccine is a waste of time and thus should be avoided.
King'sPawn
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Wanted to add a released statement in response to Doctors Ericksson and Massihi, the ones who advised re-opening:
AAEM-ACEP Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation | AAEM - American Academy of Emergency Medicine
"The American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) and the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical society and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health."
AAEM-ACEP Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation | AAEM - American Academy of Emergency Medicine
"The American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) and the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical society and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health."
The beaches thing is what really sent me over the edge with regards to Newsom's handling of the lockdown. He claims constantly that his decisions are based on facts and science, then turns around and bans beaches in Orange County, but not in San Diego. He does the based off of manipulative pictures taken with a telephoto lens that he calls "disturbing". It was quite clearly a punitive measure that is not backed by science. Do OC beaches somehow transmit the virus better than anywhere else? Does he have access to different studies that show mass amounts of outdoor transmission?
This is seriously authoritarian shit, he got pissed at Huntington Beach and is punishing them. He is extending his powers indefinitely and will decide when he will give up those powers, how is that acceptable? At what level of danger is it acceptable for a governor to suspend constitutional rights? I could at least understand it when he was being somewhat logical in his decisions, but not that he is acting on emotion I am not a fan of where this is going.
KINGS17
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Yes, and even when they don't get the formulation of a flu vaccine exactly right during a particular flu season, being vaccinated can lower the viral load in your system. Doing so helps you to experience less severe symptoms and have a shorter recovery time.
It's important to consider talking to your doctor about your vaccination history. Sometimes you need boosters. Not a bad idea, especially if you are traveling overseas, to make sure your tetanus and several other vaccinations are current. My cousin recently had a bout with shingles. As someone who had the chickenpox as a child, I am definitely going to get the vaccine for shingles in the near future.
KINGS17
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It's time to bring the legislature back into session, but Newsom can control that as well. I would like to see a major newspaper in California get a list of all the executive orders Newsom has signed during this time and publish them.
There is a bit of a difference between what San Diego is doing regarding their beaches compared to other beaches. San Diego does not allow people to bring chairs and sit on the sand. You are free to go swimming, walk or run on the beach. I don't think Ventura County handles it any differently than Orange County though.
Be careful what you wish for, cue the huge new gas tax to exploit current "low" prices and pay for "virus-related" expenses.
And, how is swimming on the beach any less dangerous that sitting on it?
tny760
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money that will surely disappear in the next couple years into his pet projects that seem to amount to nothing except lining his friends pockets
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