Gardiner or Zaitsev

[mulefarm]

Then why does Gardiner play more minutes than Reilly and many games more than Hansiey?

 

[thewave]

And over his career he's imporved the numbers of every defenseman he's been paired with and his numbers show that he drives play that results in better goal differentials. If you have the puck a lot you turn it over from time to time, to ignore his possession in favor of absolute nothing like Zaitsev (who also turns the puck over). Drew Doughty also turns the puck over but it happens when you have it more than anyone else.

Fancy stats? Which stat are you taking issue with? All of them, do you dismiss all the stats. Do you hate unfancy stats too because Jake is better than Zaitsev in those as well.

Explain to me how Zaitsev is better at hold the line on offense (big reason why Jake is on the PP and Zaitsev isn't), defends his own blueline for possession in the neutral zone (Jake's elite, the other guy is really bad at that), shot suppression... Jake big a mile for the entire team and better zone exits than everyone other than Rielly.

What does Zaitsev do well? I'll grant he's a good skater, not as good Jake but the kid has wheels and he can get garbage points but literally everyone with his minutes should be good for 30 points on this team. PK? PK isn't a skill set it a participation ribbon, that's why elite players aren't on the PK and when teams do they tend to a lot better, like NYR last year.

Like I said in my first post, this poll should be called 'do you blindly hate Jake Gardiner' Leaf Nation at it's finest.

Marincin has one tool that is denying zone entries, a limited skill set and useless in every other aspect (well he can kill penalties go figure that's in his skill set) and Carrick he's a bottom pairing defense, hardly thought high on in the advanced stats community.

I'm yet to read why Zaitsev is good... scapegoat arguably the Leafs defenseman, do you honestly think the Leafs blueline could survive losing Jake?

You are correct.

Hit the nail on the head indeed but people don't see that. They just see a mistake and look at a stat. They don't see Z wander and Jake covering for two. Jake is a very good defender and suggestions otherwise are the claims of hypee hockey kidz and hockey know nothings. He gets so many 5v5 minutes because he is good. He gets Z, because he makes him better, like he did Dion.

 

[thewave]

Then why does Gardiner play more minutes than Reilly and many games more than Hansiey?

They are watching but not understanding what they are seeing. They are following peers opinions and media type commentary. Jake is a very good defender.

61% of fans don't know what the Hecks going on. Its understandable though, its like a patient listening to two doctors speak. Doesn't understand a thing but thinks they do.

 

[Battle Lin]

well hes Zs partner, babs feels the combos of z/jake and rielly/hainsey complement each other the best, and zaitsev leads us in ice time so i imagine gardiner would play a lot too

 

[firstemperor]

Then why does Gardiner play more minutes than Reilly and many games more than Hansiey?

Not sure about the context of your reply, but I'm certain part of it has to do with Rielly's partner, Hainsey, playing so much time on the PK. Need to keep him fresh for his PK time, and rest him right after long shifts on it.

 

[mulefarm]

Watching the games, I noticed Zaitsev spends a lot of time on the PK. Not sure if your reasoning is justified?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Zaitsev has only 1 point in his last 8 games. 2 in his last 16. He's also goalless in the last 17 games. Yeah he's a defenseman but he was touted for his two way ability and the offense really has to improve

Gardiner hasn't been much better, and has had several annoying mental lapses.

I'm sure both these guys will get going though, and will make our team even more deadly

 

[meefer]

When all the cylinders are firing in order, Jake is a highly effective Dman. Sadly, we only see this in short spurts...and in the playoffs.
Zaitsev confounds me. Solidly built, physically talented he should thrive as a 2nd pairing RD, but doesn't. Perhaps he'll grow into his role, I hope, but if he doesn't, I suspect he'll be a very well paid 3rd pairing defenseman, or playing on another team.
Value this year: a wash, unless Gards starts to be the player we enjoy watching.
Moving forward: Zaitsev, if he stabilizes his play. If Gardiner were to sign for a very attractive number when this deal is over he could be equally valuable, though I doubt he will because some team will offer him more than the Leafs.

 

[LondonKendrick]

Last night's game was a great example of the difference between these two. Gardiner takes a penalty in over time so he sticks out as idiotic and also like Ray Ferraro comment 'I don't understand how someone as talented as Gardiner fans on the puck' when Gardiner need two attempts to clear by no means as it a dangerous play.

Zaitsev on the other hand spent the game delivering pizzas down the middle with blind cross ice pass attempts to clear the zone but you never see him make a mistake carrying the puck because he doesn't carry it for a second to make a heads up play. Zaitsev is awful.

 

[White Shadow]

Then why does Gardiner play more minutes than Reilly and many games more than Hansiey?

Rielly gets more shifts, Gardiner stays out longer giving him more TOI.

Gardiner has 1 more point than Zaitsev but outplays Zaits on the PP by 52 min to 6 min.

 

[zeke]

Let's break it down over all of this year and last year:

Legend:

Letter Grades = Quality of Competition measured by opponents' time on ice, Converted into Letter Grades for simplicity
p60 = points per 60 minutes
CF% = Corsi For Percentage (i.e. shot attempts for percentage)
xGF% = Expected Goals For Percentage (i.e. shot attempt percentage adjusted for shot quality) - this stat is already adjusted for zone deployment and game score
In Brackets = CF% and xGF% relative to team

Zaitsev: 102gms, ES 18:21 (A), .86p60, 49.7cf% (-1.9), 49.8xgf% (-2.0) / PP 1:40, 3.94p60 / SH 2:11
Gardiner: 102gms, ES 18:46 (B), .96p60, 51.5cf% (+0.9), 51.4xgf% (+0.6) / PP 2:33, 3.45p60 / SH 0:22

My takes:

1. They're actually very similar offensively, with Jake having been a bit more productive at ES, and Zaitsev a bit more productive on the PP.
2. I know the possession numbers suggest that Jake is better, but from my experience the differnce in their quality of competion (A grade vs B grade) would nullify that not-huge gap in their possession numbers, so I would probably guess they are pretty even in the possession department given similar roles.
3.Zaits has the added bonus of being pretty darn good on the PK. Then again, Jake might be good there too but we don't know.

 

[mulefarm]

Last 5 games. Reilly 159 shifts, Gardiner 160 shifts.

 

[dominicmoore19]

Last night's game was a great example of the difference between these two. Gardiner takes a penalty in over time so he sticks out as idiotic and also like Ray Ferraro comment 'I don't understand how someone as talented as Gardiner fans on the puck' when Gardiner need two attempts to clear by no means as it a dangerous play.

Zaitsev on the other hand spent the game delivering pizzas down the middle with blind cross ice pass attempts to clear the zone but you never see him make a mistake carrying the puck because he doesn't carry it for a second to make a heads up play. Zaitsev is awful.

Last nights game was a great example to show why I'd rather have Zaitsev. Take out your tunnel vision cause Gards was one of the worst players on the ice last night, which has become a constant lately.

 

[firstemperor]

Let's break it down over all of this year and last year:

Legend:

Letter Grades = Quality of Competition measured by opponents' time on ice, Converted into Letter Grades for simplicity
p60 = points per 60 minutes
CF% = Corsi For Percentage (i.e. shot attempts for percentage)
xGF% = Expected Goals For Percentage (i.e. shot attempt percentage adjusted for shot quality) - this stat is already adjusted for zone deployment and game score
In Brackets = CF% and xGF% relative to team

Zaitsev: 102gms, ES 18:21 (A), .86p60, 49.7cf% (-1.9), 49.8xgf% (-2.0) / PP 1:40, 3.94p60 / SH 2:11
Gardiner: 102gms, ES 18:46 (B), .96p60, 51.5cf% (+0.9), 51.4xgf% (+0.6) / PP 2:33, 3.45p60 / SH 0:22

My takes:

1. They're actually very similar offensively, with Jake having been a bit more productive at ES, and Zaitsev a bit more productive on the PP.
2. I know the possession numbers suggest that Jake is better, but from my experience the differnce in their quality of competion (A grade vs B grade) would nullify that not-huge gap in their possession numbers, so I would probably guess they are pretty even in the possession department given similar roles.
3.Zaits has the added bonus of being pretty darn good on the PK. Then again, Jake might be good there too but we don't know.

Good analysis but I think to be fair to Zaits, he was a rookie last year- new environment, new culture, new ice surface, new level of competition...list goes on. I don't know who's more valuable but I'd give Zaits this, full year to prove his value. Not much more than this year, given Zaits age.

I do think Zaits, from what I've seen, has consistently gotten better game to game though. Earlier on in the year, him and Gardiner were throwing hail mary pucks through center ice. Now he's mixing it up more, skating it out to the red line for a dump...skating it in....or using the short bank pass off the boards. Teams were clogging the neutral zone against us and daring us to to turn it over.

As for Gardiner....he looks close to a #1 in spurts but only when he gets his possession game going. His bad spells can be horrific. He reminds me of Big Buff for Winnipeg with his highs and lows, except with a completely different playstyle.

 

[White Shadow]

Last 5 games. Reilly 159 shifts, Gardiner 160 shifts.

Our play without Matthews - 4 of those 5 games - is atrocious. Not sure that's such a great sample to be using.

 

[LondonKendrick]

Last nights game was a great example to show why I'd rather have Zaitsev. Take out your tunnel vision cause Gards was one of the worst players on the ice last night, which has become a constant lately.

Did you watch last night's game, they literally did video package of Zaitsev's house league level turnovers in the second intermission.

I saw Gardiner with the puck all night, he fanned on one puck (bfd) and took a penalty in OT, other than that he had a perfect game. Tunnel vision... same to you brah.

 

[zeke]

BTW, not sure anyone's noticed, but with Andy finally getting back closer to normal, the Leafs have creeped up to 20th in goals against per game, just a tick below average.

And our defense corps also leads the league in dman points - even though we only use one dman on the PP units, not 2.

So we can complain about our dmen, but it's starting to look like our dcorps is pretty dang good.

 

[diceman934]

I would take Gardner every time over Z who poor decisions and chasing plays is exhausting to play with. PK requires less reads and that is in his wheeelhouse. Last year Polak was our best D killing penalties as it is hard work and getting into shoot lanes with little skating required unless a 50/50 puck presents its self.

Gardiner thinks the game better passes better, controls the pace of the game and would be far better playing with another D man 5on5 moving forward.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Let's see if I can do this

Leafs d'men all situations against the Devils

Player	iCF	SAT‑F	SAT‑A	CF%	CRel% ▼	ZSO	ZSD	oZS%	HIT	BLK
Andreas Borgman	4	15	10	60.0	17.8	4	6	40.0	5	0
Connor Carrick	5	15	11	57.7	15.1	4	6	40.0	3	2
Jake Gardiner	6	25	22	53.2	11.8	7	8	46.7	0	1
Morgan Rielly	8	23	27	46.0	0.8	8	14	36.4	1	3
Nikita Zaitsev	3	17	32	34.7	-17.1	6	10	37.5	6	4
Ron Hainsey	2	14	40	25.9	-32.9	8	16	33.3	2	2

[COLGROUP][COL][/COL][COL][/COL][COL][/COL][COL][/COL][COL][/COL][COL][/COL][COL][/COL][COL][/COL][COL][/COL][COL][/COL][COL][/COL][/COLGROUP]
[THEAD] [/THEAD]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[diceman934]

BTW, not sure anyone's noticed, but with Andy finally getting back closer to normal, the Leafs have creeped up to 20th in goals against per game, just a tick below average.

And our defense corps also leads the league in dman points - even though we only use one dman on the PP units, not 2.

So we can complain about our dmen, but it's starting to look like our dcorps is pretty dang good.

Our D is vastly underrated by our fans and the League. I say by the end of the year with a call up our D will finially get the recognition it deserves.

We are playing vastly better in the N zone which should see the GGA drop even more.

 

[Battle Lin]

the poll doesnt lie...the second a player gets the puck and goes on offense, zaitsev will start going crazy on you on defense, hes physical and aggressive and babcock and the fans like it

 

[Tak7]

Gardiner really has the ability to drive play and control a game, which is why I'd have to lean on him.

The other thing about Gardiner - when have we seen his best hockey as a Leaf?

In the spring of 2013, and the spring of 2017; in the playoff series against Boston and Washington, we saw Gardiner elevate his game to such an impressive level, which has me excited for (hopefully) more playoffs in the future.

Playoff games tend to be quicker paced, and that seems to be when Gardiner shines - less time to think, and more time to let his instincts kick in .

 

[zeke]

Let's see if I can do this

Leafs d'men all situations against the Devils

Player	iCF	SAT‑F	SAT‑A	CF%	CRel% ▼	ZSO	ZSD	oZS%	HIT	BLK
Andreas Borgman	4	15	10	60.0	17.8	4	6	40.0	5	0
Connor Carrick	5	15	11	57.7	15.1	4	6	40.0	3	2
Jake Gardiner	6	25	22	53.2	11.8	7	8	46.7	0	1
Morgan Rielly	8	23	27	46.0	0.8	8	14	36.4	1	3
Nikita Zaitsev	3	17	32	34.7	-17.1	6	10	37.5	6	4
Ron Hainsey	2	14	40	25.9	-32.9	8	16	33.3	2	2

[THEAD] [/THEAD]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

see, all this tells us is that Hainsey-Zaitsev-Rielly were the ones killing penalties.

 

[Mr Hockey]

see, all this tells us is that Hainsey-Zaitsev-Rielly were the ones killing penalties.

say again, Zeke?

 

[zeke]

say again, Zeke?

you're using "All Situations" - which includes special teams.

when you do that, the PK guys will always end up on the bottom.