GDT: Game 74: Stars @ Coyotes ~ 3/24/16 7 p.m. PDT ~ FSA

[rt]

This team has gone full David Moss with regards to screwing the franchise of a much needed draft pick.

Only the hockey gods can save this franchise from itself and hopefully we will have a miracle at the lottery for us.

AP, I would not worry so much about us winning a few down the stretch and the impact that has on our pick.

This year is a lot different from years past, in terms of how your finish impacts your draft position.
For example:

4th worst team = 9.5% chance at 1st pick, 9.7% for 2nd, 9.8% for 3rd
5th worst team = 8.5% chance at 1st pick, 8.8% for 2nd, 9.0% for 3rd
6th worst team = 7.5% chance at 1st pick, 7.8% for 2nd, 8.2% for 3rd
7th worst team = 6.5% chance at 1st pick, 6.9% for 2nd, 7.2% for 3rd
8th worst team = 6.0% chance at 1st pick, 6.4% for 2nd, 6.8% for 3rd
9th worst team = 5.0% chance at 1st pick, 5.4% for 2nd, 5.8% for 3rd

So as far as the lotteries go:

Finishing 9th instead of 4th worst reduces our shot at 1st by 4.5%, our shot at 2nd by 4.3%, and our shot at 3rd by 4.0%. So that’s really the worst case scenario. We go from a one in ten(ish) shot at one of the lotteries to a one in twenty(ish) shot.

More likely, though, our little winning spasm is going to be more like the difference between us having been the 6th worst and the 8th worst. Which means our shot at 1st is reduced by 1.5%, our shot at 2nd is reduced by 1.4% and our shot at 3rd is reduced by 1.4%. That is peanuts, man.

Further, the most likely draft positions for:

4th worst = 6th pick
5th worst = 6th pick
6th worst = 7th pick
7th worst = 8th pick
8th worst = 8th pick
9th worst = 9th pick

Therefore, in the worst-case scenario of us winning a few games costing us the 4th worst record in favor of the 9th worst record, our most likely pick goes from 6th overall to 9th overall. That is only three spots, and is not a big deal. In my more likely stated scenario that we end up 8th worst instead of 6th worst, this means that we’re most likely to pick 8th overall instead of being most likely to pick 7th overall. One single draft spot.

This is not worth being upset about.

Being the 8th or 9th worst team instead of the 5th or 6th worst team really only means we lose a couple of percentage points on each lottery and probably a draft place or two on the most likely pick position. I would not sweat it, man.

 

[kihekah19*]

Agree 100%. It's borderline infuriating the team sucks ass all year just to turn it on the final 20 games to try and ruin any chance of improvement.

This team needs that #1 more than any in the league and year after year they perpetually mess it up. I know no matter what, chances are you lose the lottery but at least give yourself the best chance. These wins are so meaningless, and now we've got Sekac on the top line. Sigh.

Record

Oct - Dec: 15 wins 19 losses
Jan - Present: 15 wins 22 losses
Last twenty: 8 wins 12 losses

How is it that we are "turning it on" in the final 20?

Since the break: 9 wins 16 losses

I once said that I thought going .500 after the break would be considered wildly successful and that still appears to be the case. As it stands it appears we've been consistent and will most likely be drafting right where we should.

 

[rt]

Agree 100%. It's borderline infuriating the team sucks ass all year just to turn it on the final 20 games to try and ruin any chance of improvement.

This team needs that #1 more than any in the league and year after year they perpetually mess it up. I know no matter what, chances are you lose the lottery but at least give yourself the best chance. These wins are so meaningless, and now we've got Sekac on the top line. Sigh.

Trading Grossmann and Gordon (if we even could've found any takers) wouldn't have helped us lose more. No one could've imagined a salary dump like Tanguay having this effect. This isn't Don's fault. There was nothing more he could do to tank us at the deadline. This just happened.

Players don't tank. Coaches don't tank.

We're just a much better team than Edmonton or Toronto. There's very little chance we were ever going to be much worse than 4th or 5th worst. Now we'll end up 8th or 9th worst instead. With the changes to the draft lottery this season, there isn't much difference between 4-5th worst and 8-9th worse. It's not a big deal.

 

[ClassLessCoyote]

Our "much needed draft pick" happened last year. Turns out that we got several "much needed draft picks" at that draft.

What we need more than a draft pick is a winning culture. I for one am happy that they're invested in creating that before Strome and co. get here because otherwise... well, we've seen what's happened to the Oilers with all their super-duper draft returns.

Anyway, think of it this way - last year we tanked to get McJesus or the Eichel Tower and we ended up with the worst possible outcome. Maybe we have to be at the bottom of the lottery odds in order for karma to finally take notice of us.

I'm not against the idea of having a winning culture but I feel that should come only after such needed players are required. I'm also aware of the changes in the lottery but I'll admit that I'm among the more selfish in the fanbase that wants to get their hands on the best players possible after seeing how so many other teams have nice things. Certainly getting a taste of playoff success in 2012 has fueled that greed more and more. At what point to do I want the winning culture to take place? It can be next season if we get a high pick this season.

On the new phrase going around here("winning culture") it seems others have brought into this idea that the team has a winning culture now since the 2016 trade deadline. The team really hasn't had a winning culture since 2012.

 

[GiveAFlyingPuck]

I like winning more than losing.

 

[Ebb]

On Sekac...

I think he has dialed it up a bit in his last few starts. Should he be on the 1st? Probably not, but at this point we're just trying different combinations to see if something possibly sticks that may carry over to next season.

Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing a 4th of Plotnikov - Gaudet/Dauphin - Sekac.

Plotnikov and Sekac have shown that they can hit and defend. Perhaps adding Gaudet, Dauphin, or Vermette (if he continues to flounder) would increase the possible scoring of the line.

Another possibility (full ensemble):
Domi - Hanzal - Duclair
Reider - Strome - Doan (not sure if Doan would work here, but it's worth a shot)
Dvorak - Vermette - Plotnikov/Sekac
Martinook - Richardson - Sekac/Plotnikov

 

[ClassLessCoyote]

I like winning more than losing.

I like winning as well, but I can deal with losing as long as it serves a purpose that'll benefit the team in the future.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

I'll admit that I'm among the more selfish in the fanbase that wants to get their hands on the best players possible after seeing how so many other teams have nice things.

This is progress. First step in correcting a problem is admitting you have one.

 

[kihekah19*]

This is progress. First step in correcting a problem is admitting you have one.

Ah yes.... sin begets sin

Envy being a sin and all.

 

[Jakey53]

OhhhhhMFG! We're dooomed!! DOOOOMED!!!! How *will* we ever survive picking 10th instead of 6th?

Jeezus, lighten up, people. The games are actually fun to attend again.

That in itself makes the year a success.

 

[Jakey53]

Agree 100%. It's borderline infuriating the team sucks ass all year just to turn it on the final 20 games to try and ruin any chance of improvement.

This team needs that #1 more than any in the league and year after year they perpetually mess it up. I know no matter what, chances are you lose the lottery but at least give yourself the best chance. These wins are so meaningless, and now we've got Sekac on the top line. Sigh.

If you think for a first year rebuild that we sucked ass, you really must have a hard time understanding how a rebuild works.

Just curious, but explain how year after year they perpetually mess it up?

 

[ClassLessCoyote]

This is progress. First step in correcting a problem is admitting you have one.

Ah yes.... sin begets sin

Envy being a sin and all.

Greed is an important key to success.

 

[ClassLessCoyote]

If you think for a first year rebuild that we sucked ass, you really must have a hard time understanding how a rebuild works.

Says the guy(you) who says the team needs to crawl 1st before they can walk.

 

[kihekah19*]

Also, greed is an important key to success.

Exemplifies a lack of knowledge of success!

 

[Jakey53]

On Sekac...

I think he has dialed it up a bit in his last few starts. Should he be on the 1st? Probably not, but at this point we're just trying different combinations to see if something possibly sticks that may carry over to next season.

Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing a 4th of Plotnikov - Gaudet/Dauphin - Sekac.

Plotnikov and Sekac have shown that they can hit and defend. Perhaps adding Gaudet, Dauphin, or Vermette (if he continues to flounder) would increase the possible scoring of the line.

Another possibility (full ensemble):
Domi - Hanzal - Duclair
Reider - Strome - Doan (not sure if Doan would work here, but it's worth a shot)
Dvorak - Vermette - Plotnikov/Sekac
Martinook - Richardson - Sekac/Plotnikov

Sekac, Plotnikov and Tik are a dime a dozen. Sekac is the youngest so he might improve, but I think HS can bring something better than any of these three.

 

[Jakey53]

Says the guy(you) who says the team needs to crawl 1st before they can walk.

Exactly, and finishing bottom ten, I thought it would be bottom five, in the first year of a rebuild is crawling. What amazes me with this team is how competitive they are, and having only a few stinkers all year. With the talent this team has they are playing very very well, much better than I anticipated.This year it was a slow crawl, next year it will be a fast crawl and year three we will be walking.

 

[Ebb]

Sekac, Plotnikov and Tik are a dime a dozen. Sekac is the youngest so he might improve, but I think HS can bring something better than any of these three.

I considered adding H. Samuelsson in there. I would still look at signing at least one of Plot/sekac. If anything, that would give us a solid #13 forward. I would like to sign both to two-way contracts, but I'm not sure that can/will happen. If it doesn't, than I think I'd prefer Plotnikov over Sekac (seems to have more of a physical edge).

I would like to have all three (H. Samuelsson, Plotnikov, and Sekac) compete at camp for the roster slot.

 

[Matias Maccete]

AP, I would not worry so much about us winning a few down the stretch and the impact that has on our pick.

This year is a lot different from years past, in terms of how your finish impacts your draft position.
For example:

4th worst team = 9.5% chance at 1st pick, 9.7% for 2nd, 9.8% for 3rd
5th worst team = 8.5% chance at 1st pick, 8.8% for 2nd, 9.0% for 3rd
6th worst team = 7.5% chance at 1st pick, 7.8% for 2nd, 8.2% for 3rd
7th worst team = 6.5% chance at 1st pick, 6.9% for 2nd, 7.2% for 3rd
8th worst team = 6.0% chance at 1st pick, 6.4% for 2nd, 6.8% for 3rd
9th worst team = 5.0% chance at 1st pick, 5.4% for 2nd, 5.8% for 3rd

So as far as the lotteries go:

Finishing 9th instead of 4th worst reduces our shot at 1st by 4.5%, our shot at 2nd by 4.3%, and our shot at 3rd by 4.0%. So that’s really the worst case scenario. We go from a one in ten(ish) shot at one of the lotteries to a one in twenty(ish) shot.

More likely, though, our little winning spasm is going to be more like the difference between us having been the 6th worst and the 8th worst. Which means our shot at 1st is reduced by 1.5%, our shot at 2nd is reduced by 1.4% and our shot at 3rd is reduced by 1.4%. That is peanuts, man.

Further, the most likely draft positions for:

4th worst = 6th pick
5th worst = 6th pick
6th worst = 7th pick
7th worst = 8th pick
8th worst = 8th pick
9th worst = 9th pick

Therefore, in the worst-case scenario of us winning a few games costing us the 4th worst record in favor of the 9th worst record, our most likely pick goes from 6th overall to 9th overall. That is only three spots, and is not a big deal. In my more likely stated scenario that we end up 8th worst instead of 6th worst, this means that we’re most likely to pick 8th overall instead of being most likely to pick 7th overall. One single draft spot.

This is not worth being upset about.

Being the 8th or 9th worst team instead of the 5th or 6th worst team really only means we lose a couple of percentage points on each lottery and probably a draft place or two on the most likely pick position. I would not sweat it, man.

Agreed, I was very very pro tank last year because of the light of Eichel at the end the tunnel, but this year it really doesn't matter much at all. Tanking last year made sense, this year there's no huge benefit. As long we finish top 10 we'll be good imo.

I do still think not selling off pending ufas was silly, but not because of the effect they would've had on the team (I doubt we would've been much better or worse without Gordon and grossman). I disagree with it because the more swings you get at the draft the better, and passing some extra ones up for the optics of retaining a 4th liner and a fringe NHL dman doesn't make much sense to me. Not a big deal though, and not really worth discussing anymore.

 

[CC96]

I'm sorry if somehow you got the impression that Dallas is a strong defensive team, but you are yet again incorrect.

Alright, not sure why that undermines a 9 point performance. Also, that gives us all the more reason to play our best puck possession line against them.

 

[Summer Rose]

Amazing, you guys are wrong, again.

Most of my posts at this point of a non-playoff season are satire, if you hadn't caught on yet.

 

[Jakey53]

Most of my posts at this point of a non-playoff season are satire, if you hadn't caught on yet.

No I haven't.

 

[TheLegend]

I really don't know why Tippett ever splits up Max, Marty and Duke. They're the only thing we have resembling a scoring line when they're together.

Martinook - Richardson - Doan say hello.

 

[_Del_]

I love Rieder, but can you imagine what certain posters would say if Duclair was -18? Haha

 

[CC96]

Martinook - Richardson - Doan say hello.

They don't play together anymore either. Don't understand why don't just roll with:

Domi - Hanzal - Duclair
Tanguay - Vermette - Rieder (played right wing at times in Jr's, I believe)
Martinook - Richardson - Doan


No trash involved, and it actually resembles a serviceable top-9.

 

[CC96]

I love Rieder, but can you imagine what certain posters would say if Duclair was -18? Haha

That doesn't fit the narrative of Tippett's bizarre ice time decisions, so it doesn't count.