GDT: [Game #69] Dallas Stars vs. New York Islanders - 7:30 PM CT (BSSW)

[Johno]

GAME #69 – 4/5/2022 – 7:30 PM CT – BSSW
American Airlines Center

Your Dallas Stars vs. the New York Islanders
★ 39-26-3, 81 pts ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 32-27-9, 73 pts ★


STATS

Lee - Nelson - Beauvillier
Parise - Barzal - Wahlstrom
Bailey - Pageau - Palmieri
Martin - Cizikas - Bellows

Chara - Dobson
Pelech - Pulock
Aho - Hutton

Sorokin

​

Click to read more...

 

[Troy McClure]

After their dreadful start to the season, the Islanders come in with a four game win streak and are 12-4-1 over the last 30 days or so.

Since March 5th, the Islanders are 4th in the league in points percentage, 7th best PP, #1 PK, 8th in goals scored, and 2nd in goals against. Funny thing about this stretch, they're 30th in shots per game and 26th in shots against, so they're doing all of this winning while not shooting a lot and while also giving up lots of shots.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

If I wasn't obligated to feel positive, I might say this could be one of those dreaded flop on the first night home type games.

 

[Captain Awesome]

Goddamn, with a coaching change and some different utilization, Heiskanen going to put up big points next season. 2% finishing with 94% EV offense breaking my brain, but makes sense if you're forced to shoot from further out because you're not allowed to pinch.

Oh yeah, and the stars are playing their boring eastern brethren.

 

[Captain Awesome]

After their dreadful start to the season, the Islanders come in with a four game win streak and are 12-4-1 over the last 30 days or so.

Since March 5th, the Islanders are 4th in the league in points percentage, 7th best PP, #1 PK, 8th in goals scored, and 2nd in goals against. Funny thing about this stretch, they're 30th in shots per game and 26th in shots against, so they're doing all of this winning while not shooting a lot and while also giving up lots of shots.

You know, I'd have to dig into it for context, but some might call that luck.

 

[Troy McClure]

For a game, sure. But for a month?

 

[Captain Awesome]

For a game, sure. But for a month?

Have definitely seen teams go nearly entire seasons on PDO benders, which I guess is why that term was coined. I mean, if the Dallas Stars and the Montreal Canadiens can do it back to back for an entire playoffs, why not during the regular season?

NYI is a funny team because analytics has hated them for two straight years but they won anyway, so maybe there's just something about that team that defies public analytics.

I could actually buy a team letting up a bunch of shots and still doing well, because some teams will let you have the perimeter and shoot there repeatedly, and that could lead to inflated shots against, but not quality shots. I don't think there's a team in the league that can outperform 30th in shots for vs 8th in goals on shooting talent alone, though, so I'd imagine there's gotta be some significant luck baked into that.

Edit: NYI #2 in PDO in the league at 1.038 for the last month. Natural Stat Trick: Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

It's not some foolproof stat you can use to declaratively state a team is lucky, but as a rule of thumb anything significantly over 1 and you're asking yourself if the team is elite or very lucky, or some combination of both. PDO is very simply shot % + save %.

Edit 2: #1 in all situations by a massive margin. Special teams and ES luck. Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Satan]

Just win baby

 

[Zapp]

Just win baby

#anythingcanhappen
#whatsappgang
#largedreams

 

[Elysian]

Game 69? Nice.

 

[Troy McClure]

Have definitely seen teams go nearly entire seasons on PDO benders, which I guess is why that term was coined. I mean, if the Dallas Stars and the Montreal Canadiens can do it back to back for an entire playoffs, why not during the regular season?

NYI is a funny team because analytics has hated them for two straight years but they won anyway, so maybe there's just something about that team that defies public analytics.

I could actually buy a team letting up a bunch of shots and still doing well, because some teams will let you have the perimeter and shoot there repeatedly, and that could lead to inflated shots against, but not quality shots. I don't think there's a team in the league that can outperform 30th in shots for vs 8th in goals on shooting talent alone, though, so I'd imagine there's gotta be some significant luck baked into that.

Edit: NYI #2 in PDO in the league at 1.038 for the last month. Natural Stat Trick: Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

It's not some foolproof stat you can use to declaratively state a team is lucky, but as a rule of thumb anything significantly over 1 and you're asking yourself if the team is elite or very lucky, or some combination of both. PDO is very simply shot % + save %.

Edit 2: #1 in all situations by a massive margin. Special teams and ES luck. Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Probably need to go beyond shot counts and look at shot quality. If Trotz likes his goaltending and defense around the net, it makes sense how allowing a lot of low quality shots from distance and sharp angles can not hurt you. A crappy wrister from the wall the goalie snags with ease is essentially a turnover.

 

[MBTendy]

A loss would hurt that’s for sure.

Our games in hand with VGK are starting to shrink and we’re currently behind by 1 pt. It does not look like they’re going to lose anytime soon, they’ve been on a heater

 

[catters078]

A loss would hurt that’s for sure.

Our games in hand with VGK are starting to shrink and we’re currently behind by 1 pt. It does not look like they’re going to lose anytime soon, they’ve been on a heater

I also think the games in hand advantage notion is a false positive.

Teams make up their games late in year through back to backs and VERY heavy schedules. Which can lead to multiple performances like the seattle game...then all of a sudden the games in hand quickly shrink and are gone.

i sort of view us as even with VGK and Nashville. (And also expect LA to start to drop). Still think there is a spot for us, but i think our games in hand narrative isnt as comforting as it appears.

 

[BG44]

 

[BG44]

Saad added that Gurianov's illness has been an issue for some time.

 

[BG44]

 

[Troy McClure]

Not really sure what illness a player can fight for weeks before missing time.... Other than .... You know .... diarrhea.

 

[Smelling Salt]

Poor Namestnikov

 

[starsfan86]

That is one ugly lineup.

 

[Zapp]

Toronto is dismantling Florida right now. Marner just got b2b goals first one short-handed next one was a powerplay goal. His shorty was filth

 

[Satan]

PVO

 

[MBTendy]

let’s get that dub baby

 

[Magic Mittens]

Toronto is dismantling Florida right now. Marner just got b2b goals first one short-handed next one was a powerplay goal. His shorty was filth

Bobrovsky’s let in 10 goals on his last 39 shots lol

 

[The Tourist]

Looks like we are going to be treated to some cleavage behind Bowness.

 

[ugrakarma]

Bobrovsky’s let in 10 goals on his last 39 shots lol

Bob is one bipolar goalie.