GDT: Game 65: Avs @ Wild | Tuesday, March 1st, 6pm MT |18 and Counting part 2...yes part 2

[CobraAcesS]

I think when Bigras was paired with Holden he was shifted back to the left side and he was noticeably more comfortable. I think That was why the pairings were switched. Regarding the assessment issues of the team and us going after rentals. We have to consider other ramifications. A team that is showing fight and a desire to compete is more attractive to fee agent players etc. Everything can't just be about the draft and the future. I want them to want to compete. Period.

Yeah I think that had something to do with it, but my beef is that Roy chose to move Gelinas up with Barrie instead of Bigras.

Dumb move, and opportunity lost to see what Bigras could have done IMO. I'd rather have Bigras with EJ personally, because I think EJ and FB both need a partner who can skate better, and #2 Bigras is not as strong as he will be with another off-season of building strength. He manages it well, but EJ would be much better at clearing the net while Bigras retrieves pucks.

Same thing with FB/Barrie...

 

[cgf]

Barrie, while improved is still pretty bad defensively. He created a lot of magic with the puck last night and I agree with TMV in saying he was our best defenseman. Sure he was bad defensively but that's the norm with him. Ya win some ya lose some. If you're counting on Barrie to have a lights out defensive game you're going to finish a lot of games disappointed. Too bad he cant have a decent partner since we'd be in for a treat every night with a lot less risk attached.

Barrie's good defensive plays never get any mentions or love from this board, but they exist and are a regular occurence. He still gets caught and makes mistakes but he's pretty good defensively for his size.

 

[InjuredChoker]

I don't know, how much better would we look with an Oduya playing next to Barrie or Bigras right now? The margins are very small these days.

probably by decent amount but we added our own LD in beauch. adding oduya wouldn't have added 20-25 points for our season total.

I see the same path for Dallas as Pit took, building the expectations they're doing now with short term moves can have a costly effect long term. Those expectations will compound and they will most likely be forced to sell off unproven young players at points to back fill the NHL roster quickly.

outside of russell trade, they haven't done that. they have been building for long-term success all along. save for russell where they gave up a fairly high price for medicore defender in my opinion. they don't have bad contracts and

some of those younger players arguably should be on the roster already. they even have to sell them as there is no room for all of them.

Even Boedker, if we re-sign him fits into our core age fairly well. We went out and got the one guy available who might be worth paying in the off-season to keep around long term. We paid a fairly good price to test drive him as part of the long term future as well. Those are the type of moves I like when trying to take the small steady steps forward to competing long term. Paying assets for guys like Stuart and signing Iginla are moves just like Dallas made, but theirs worked out better. They will however burn out fairly quickly.

moves the stars have made made more sense, outside of, again, russell. but he won't hamstring their cap situation if he sucks, they can move on from him. at least as of now. their cap situation is also much better along with better group of young players in minors, though avs arguably have the edge in top-end talent.

 

[CobraAcesS]

probably by decent amount but we added our own LD in beauch. adding oduya wouldn't have added 20-25 points for our season total.



outside of russell trade, they haven't done that. they have been building for long-term success all along. save for russell where they gave up a fairly high price for medicore defender in my opinion. they don't have bad contracts and

some of those younger players arguably should be on the roster already. they even have to sell them as there is no room for all of them.




moves the stars have made made more sense, outside of, again, russell. but he won't hamstring their cap situation if he sucks, they can move on from him. at least as of now. their cap situation is also much better along with better group of young players in minors, though avs arguably have the edge in top-end talent.

Yeah, I think you are right that they have walked the line appropriately (which is what I think you're trying to say) thus far. However I'll be curious to see if they can navigate the road ahead that they have laid for themselves with those choices. It's not an easy one, and creating pressure to contend while having that many veterans on the team can be a dangerous thing in and of itself. That's all I'm saying, just that I can see them fighting the same demons that Pit does if they are not razor sharp in their choices.

 

[hoserthehorrible]

Barrie's good defensively plays never get any mentions or love from this board, but they exist and are a regular occurence. He still gets caught and makes mistakes but he's pretty good defensively for his size.

He's pretty good defensively for his size? That's kind of like saying she's pretty attractive for an ugly girl.

Barrie is not a good defensive defenseman. He's wonderful on the offensive side of the game but his defense is not good. A big part of that is because of his lack of size and strength. He gets out-muscled by bigger forwards in the corners. He gets out-muscled in front of the net and is incapable of stopping a bigger forward from establishing position in the slot and getting a good shot off.

Barrie also has a penchant for defensive brain freezes. Last night's game is a good example. The Avs won the faceoff in the offensive zone however the puck wasn't won directly to a player. It was halfway between Barrie/Holden and the Wild player. Barrie didn't attack and try and keep the puck in the O-zone but he didn't retreat and get himself in a defensive position either. Instead, he had a brain freeze, he stood motionless for a few seconds, and watched as Pominville grabbed the puck and blew right by him for what amounted to a breakaway goal.

You get very good offensive production from Barrie however you do not get good defense with Barrie. Is he worth having on the roster? Absolutely. But let's not kid ourselves by thinking Barrie is good defensively. He's not.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Yeah, I think you are right that they have walked the line appropriately (which is what I think you're trying to say) thus far. However I'll be curious to see if they can navigate the road ahead that they have laid for themselves with those choices. It's not an easy one, and creating pressure to contend while having that many veterans on the team can be a dangerous thing in and of itself. That's all I'm saying, just that I can see them fighting the same demons that Pit does if they are not razor sharp in their choices.

i agree that they have to do good job in both drafting and replacing those vets. as soon as this season as goligoski, russell and demers are all UFAs.


i mostly like what they have done because they have very good prospect pool, haven't rushed their kids and instead found veterans at cheap price and those have played well. and they have good cap flexibility. that's why i think they are well set-up for future. smart management with good tools to work with. they have flaws on their roster (for now and in future) but i think outside of the top pairing guy, they have shown that they can fill those positions. though how they addressed their G this past offseason was weird. they need to find long-term solution there as they have costly duo (that is average at best) locked up for few more seasons.

but if they make more moves like russell, my opinion of them is going to change. i really can't wrap my head around that. but that would be better for avs if they have been just lucky with their moves. i'd take it.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I think when Bigras was paired with Holden he was shifted back to the left side and he was noticeably more comfortable. I think That was why the pairings were switched. Regarding the assessment issues of the team and us going after rentals. We have to consider other ramifications. A team that is showing fight and a desire to compete is more attractive to fee agent players etc. Everything can't just be about the draft and the future. I want them to want to compete. Period.

Weren't they switched after he scored the goal? Especially from his time in the AHL I've noticed that whenever he scores or gets an assist he gets a huge boost of confidence and starts trying more things. IMO he still tends to get nervous and whenever he gets a bit fumbly with the puck it's because of that good thing is that it's just a nerves issue and the more comfortable he gets and matures it will go away but he probably will tend to get nervous early in big games.

 

[cgf]

Weren't they switched after he scored the goal? Especially from his time in the AHL I've noticed that whenever he scores or gets an assist he gets a huge boost of confidence and starts trying more things. IMO he still tends to get nervous and whenever he gets a bit fumbly with the puck it's because of that good thing is that it's just a nerves issue and the more comfortable he gets and matures it will go away but he probably will tend to get nervous early in big games.

Can't have someone that mentally soft as part of our core. Maybe we can add him to the Duchene, MacK, Landy & Varly trade to get Toronto to kick their 2nd in on top of Bozak.

 

[dahrougem2]

Can't have someone that mentally soft as part of our core. Maybe we can add him to the Duchene, MacK, Landy & Varly trade to get Toronto to kick their 2nd in on top of Bozak.

I was thinking more McDavid but I hear Bozak is a good leader and good on the dot

 

[cgf]

I was thinking more McDavid but I hear Bozak is a good leader and good on the dot

McDavid!? No thanks. He can't even get the Oilers into the playoffs, we've had enough **** leaders.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Weren't they switched after he scored the goal? Especially from his time in the AHL I've noticed that whenever he scores or gets an assist he gets a huge boost of confidence and starts trying more things. IMO he still tends to get nervous and whenever he gets a bit fumbly with the puck it's because of that good thing is that it's just a nerves issue and the more comfortable he gets and matures it will go away but he probably will tend to get nervous early in big games.

This is where having a guy like EJ next to him would help IMO. I think they would help each other out. EJ can handle the puck if Bigras does not have a lot of confidence early in a game offensively. However EJ also knows how to pick his spots if his partner is going offensively like FB does at times.

As far as the match up issues, I also think there is less physicality involved in facing better players sometimes. When hes facing second and third lines or fourth lines, he has to deal with players who are usually much more physical down low. I think his hockey IQ would stand out more in a positive way against better players who don't make their living checking the **** out of defenders.

I know that's probably a weak argument, but I believe (as others have brought it up in the past) there could be merit there when you consider what Bigras does best.

 

[Ensane]

Barrie also has a penchant for defensive brain freezes. Last night's game is a good example. The Avs won the faceoff in the offensive zone however the puck wasn't won directly to a player. It was halfway between Barrie/Holden and the Wild player. Barrie didn't attack and try and keep the puck in the O-zone but he didn't retreat and get himself in a defensive position either. Instead, he had a brain freeze, he stood motionless for a few seconds, and watched as Pominville grabbed the puck and blew right by him for what amounted to a breakaway goal.

This sums it up. On the offensive side, his instincts are nearly automatic in evading players, making proper strides/cuts in his skating motion, and knowing where passes and shots should be directed. It's completely mindless and its beautiful.

It's the opposite when he's defending. He thinks through everything and his decision-making slows down as a result. This leads to openings like the one we saw last night. I think he does realize his shortcomings here though and tries to take less risks (such as taking a gamble to cut off a pass), otherwise he'd get fleeced more often. Most nights he's smart enough to at least commit to a position and get in the way.

 

[dahrougem2]

McDavid!? No thanks. He can't even get the Oilers into the playoffs, we've had enough **** leaders.

Injury prone too

 

[Tweaky]

DISCLAIMER: I'm not equating the SAME odds of making the playoffs with powerball odds, it's an analogy.

Do you really have a better chance at winning powerball if you buy 10 tickets or 1000? What if you spend an entire paycheck or get a payday loan to buy those 1000 tickets? It MIGHT increase your chances by a small increment but you don't know if you would have won anyway or when you don't win what have you gained. Therefore I don't buy the argument that our chances are tangibly better now. I get the benefits of playoffs, that's not in question. It's more the impatience of not being the team that's ready to take the next step. You can't buy your way into it.

Now take that exact argument, and apply it to draft picks rather than playoff chances. At least with adding current players, you have a much better idea of what they bring to the ice. Draft picks are a complete random chance by comparison.

And they did not come anywhere near spending "an entire paycheck." At the moment, they still have 7 picks in this years draft, and 6 next year. They gave up a couple decent prospects, but kept the other 8 out of the top 10 (as voted by us, last summer).

Break it down like this:
Avs playoffs chances prior to 20 Feb....35%
Boedker over Tanguay...chances increase to 50%
Matthias over Martinsen....65%
Gelinas over Bodnarchuk....70%
I am just making up numbers, based on poor memory of what the website that does playoff chances said two weeks ago, plus some gut feel for arguments sake... But by that rationale, they have doubled their chances to make the playoffs. To me that is worth a set of trades that work out to giving up Wood, an extra late 2nd and a 4th this year, a 3rd next year, an old UFA, Cliche, and Smith...for said increased chances, keeping that 3rd pairing RFA, and an upgrade to Smith plus first crack at signing the UFAs.


But seriously, and I am not judging regardless of answer, but how much of this acrimony towards these moves has to do with them trading your two favorite junior prospects?

 

[Bubba Thudd]

This sums it up. On the offensive side, his instincts are nearly automatic in evading players, making proper strides/cuts in his skating motion, and knowing where passes and shots should be directed. It's completely mindless and its beautiful.

It's the opposite when he's defending. He thinks through everything and his decision-making slows down as a result. This leads to openings like the one we saw last night. I think he does realize his shortcomings here though and tries to take less risks (such as taking a gamble to cut off a pass), otherwise he'd get fleeced more often. Most nights he's smart enough to at least commit to a position and get in the way.

Maybe Barrie is that RW we've been needing...

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

Now take that exact argument, and apply it to draft picks rather than playoff chances. At least with adding current players, you have a much better idea of what they bring to the ice. Draft picks are a complete random chance by comparison.

And they did not come anywhere near spending "an entire paycheck." At the moment, they still have 7 picks in this years draft, and 6 next year. They gave up a couple decent prospects, but kept the other 8 out of the top 10 (as voted by us, last summer).

Break it down like this:
Avs playoffs chances prior to 20 Feb....35%
Boedker over Tanguay...chances increase to 50%
Matthias over Martinsen....65%
Gelinas over Bodnarchuk....70%
I am just making up numbers, based on poor memory of what the website that does playoff chances said two weeks ago, plus some gut feel for arguments sake... But by that rationale, they have doubled their chances to make the playoffs. To me that is worth a set of trades that work out to giving up Wood, an extra late 2nd and a 4th this year, a 3rd next year, an old UFA, Cliche, and Smith...for said increased chances, keeping that 3rd pairing RFA, and an upgrade to Smith plus first crack at signing the UFAs.


But seriously, and I am not judging regardless of answer, but how much of this acrimony towards these moves has to do with them trading your two favorite junior prospects?

Avs playoff odds dropped to 25% after last night's game. It was 35% heading into it, but since we faced the only team with a legit shot of catching us, it dropped a lot. Still plenty of time, and I believe one more game against Minnesota left.

Here's the Avs.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Central/Colorado.html

 

[Tweaky]

Yeah, I looked at it after I posted that. Minny is at 73.9% now, having gone up 14% due to the win. We went down 13.8% to 25.1%. Seems odd. If you flip the results, Avs would be at 52.9%, and Minny would be at 46.1%....with them down 4 points with a game in hand. That has to be due to strength of schedule.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

Yeah, I looked at it after I posted that. Minny is at 73.9% now, having gone up 14% due to the win. We went down 13.8% to 25.1%. Seems odd. If you flip the results, Avs would be at 52.9%, and Minny would be at 46.1%....with them down 4 points with a game in hand. That has to be due to strength of schedule.

I'm sure ROW's too. Avs would have been at 30 after last night and Wild at 28, but now they're tied at 29, and that's the tiebreaker, and then the next tiebreaker is head to head, which the Avs would lose. The tiebreaker after that is goal differential, which the Wild also have the advantage in. Last night hurt a lot.

 

[JoemAvs]

Now take that exact argument, and apply it to draft picks rather than playoff chances. At least with adding current players, you have a much better idea of what they bring to the ice. Draft picks are a complete random chance by comparison.

And they did not come anywhere near spending "an entire paycheck." At the moment, they still have 7 picks in this years draft, and 6 next year. They gave up a couple decent prospects, but kept the other 8 out of the top 10 (as voted by us, last summer).

Break it down like this:
Avs playoffs chances prior to 20 Feb....35%
Boedker over Tanguay...chances increase to 50%
Matthias over Martinsen....65%
Gelinas over Bodnarchuk....70%
I am just making up numbers, based on poor memory of what the website that does playoff chances said two weeks ago, plus some gut feel for arguments sake... But by that rationale, they have doubled their chances to make the playoffs. To me that is worth a set of trades that work out to giving up Wood, an extra late 2nd and a 4th this year, a 3rd next year, an old UFA, Cliche, and Smith...for said increased chances, keeping that 3rd pairing RFA, and an upgrade to Smith plus first crack at signing the UFAs.


But seriously, and I am not judging regardless of answer, but how much of this acrimony towards these moves has to do with them trading your two favorite junior prospects?

Sorry but those numbers make my head hurt. Do you seriously believe that?

The Avs at about a 35 % chance of making it before the deadline seems about right.
Their moves should have increased it a bit.

But 70 % is just plain wrong. Over 50 % chance would mean that we are more likely to make it than the Wild (who should have around 25 % in your "Avs-after-deadlina-at-70%" scenario) aka we should be considered clearly the flat out better team.

And that I just completely disagree with.

I think those move increased our chances but not close to the amount many in here believe.

We have to beat out a better team for a playoff spot regardless of what we did at the deadline.

We got maybe at most a 5 % increase in our (below 50 %) chances at the playoffs.

We always needed luck and great goaltending to make it. Those moves did nothing to really change that equation.

That is why it simply was not smart at all.

 

[InjuredChoker]

wild have god damn 1/3 of their remaining games against current PO-teams. ****.

 

[cgf]

Luckily the Wild are good at playing down to their opponents like we do. So even though we have the harder schedule, that may end up being to our advantage; as our boys won't have many games that they can feel complacent going into, while the Wild laying an egg or two after this big win would come as a surprise to noone.

 

[InjuredChoker]

plus the other good thing might be that some PO-teams might not have much or anything to play at the end of the regular season.

avs last 5 games in order from newest to latest:
caps
blues
preds
stars
ducks


but the last 8 games are against teams currently in playoff spot, including state of almost soldout outdoor games. 9th last game is against the flyers who might still be fighting for it.

 

[Pokecheque]

I'm hearing a lot about Gelinas, but not much about Boedkker. Judging from the stats I pulled up the line with him, Landy, and MacKinnon did not do well.

 

[Tweaky]

The numbers are exaggerated a bit, to make the point. But I do still feel that the Avs have a better chance to make the playoffs than the Wild. The Avs and Wild both play to their opponents level, and that bodes well for us. Plus, I think they are about to fall off the new-coach wagon soon. Whereas we should be able to work in the new guys a bit better, and hopefully build some chemistry. 70% was a stretch, yes...but it was to make a point that more realistic numbers would not. Really though, the chances were well above 35% before the Matthias trade...going 1-3-0 since has dropped them down to 25%, 14 points of which were last night. If I were to use more realistic numbers, it would have looked more like starting at 55%, going up to 64% for a 16.4% increase in probability of making the playoffs. That is still a significant increase, for a relatively low cost.

 

[cgf]

I'm hearing a lot about Gelinas, but not much about Boedkker. Judging from the stats I pulled up the line with him, Landy, and MacKinnon did not do well.

Boedker played a part in the first two goals and was almost directly responsible for a 3 that would've given us the lead going into the third. He did well last night and that line looked like it could be very dangerous.