We could debate on a million reasons why here, but there are signs the team is just that much weaker. 5v5 the Avs only have xGF% higher than Seattle and Winnipeg out of the playoff teams in the West (and that difference is less than a quarter percent). HDCF% Avs are the lowest in the West. The Avs chances are being pushed to the perimeter and out, while defensively, the slot chances are up dramatically. Shot differential... Avs are +1 per game this year, last year +3 (larger difference than it sounds like). Down from +9 the year previous. Avs were a top 5 underlying team just a couple years ago. Slipped to fringe top 10 last year (Avs' finishing rate was incredibly high though). This year the Avs are closer to 20 in most areas.
There might be the argument that hey, goaltending is improved... it isn't. Avs have gotten similar performances out of Kuemper and Grubi the past two seasons. George has been good, but overall the Avs play a very friendly goalie style. Avs have clearly identified this though and found a way to save cap.
There is a strong downward trend in the Avs' underlying. We can debate the why and reasons around it, but there a signs of cracks.