If I take over a business, and I have done it a number of times, the day I start is day one of my tenure. BA took over in September of 2020, before the start of the the 2020/2021 season. This is the teams 4th full season while he is GM. You don't get to say, hey lets not count the first year, thats like taking mulligans in a golf tournament.
Year 4 isn't over yet, sure, but what could we possibly learn the rest of the way? We know the team is in a 13 game losing streak even though BA is a great GM, Bear is a great coach, we have a great culture, we have great work ethic, veteran leadership is great, we have great young players, the team is improving, its all greatness except for our 73 point pace.
This wasn't the plan BA laid out to ownership, he didn't say, hey in the 4th season the team plays after you make me GM, we will be doing so well that we will be within 25 points of a playoff spot by the end of the year.
This rebuild which is taking too long already because BA squandered away year 1, not his fault though really, he isn't experienced at tear downs. I give it a 50/50 shot of working long term. I see overall some good signs (we have young talented wingers), but I see overall bad signs as well (no 1D/1C/2D in sight, except maybe Cooley in 3 or 4 years as a 1C).