This year was a "rebuild" year. All we did this off-season was swapped out D Gudbranson for D Shattenkirk, while losing D Djoos. Mgmt was trying to make the playoffs, but a lot depended upon three things:
a) health
2) youth growth
d) improved special teams
The season was the second season of the youth movement. Also, factor in this season was the season we'd be fiscally strapped due to Perry's buyout inflation along with incurring Backes' contract, which helped nab a 2020 first round pick.
You have to be lying to yourself to put a spin on this season wasn't a rebuild season just because GM Murray wanted his team to get back into the playoffs. Was there way to the playoffs? Yeah, a slim margin. Everything had to go right to get there. Hell, I predicted before the season started that we would probably be involved in a lot of 1-goal games, hopefully on the winning end. (More on that later.)
Health
The blue line got hit hard for the second season in a row. Lindholm played 18 games, Manson played 23 games, and they both played a whopping 3 games together in a game this season. Losing Lindholm and Manson is very significant to this team as we are reliant upon our defense while our forwards figured out how to score. Lose your top defensemen and sometimes that's all is needed to sink a season.
A myriad of injuries to our forward corps as well. Milano got in only 6 games and Rowney got only 19 games in. Grant's return from injury was very mixed. Silf had re-injured a previous injury that needed surgery.
Youth Growth
Stepped up: Comtois leads the team in goals and scoring. Lundestrom proved he can be an NHL center as well as a key PK'er. Jones knows his role, which is to be a bull in a China shop with speed.
Drysdale revealed he was our #3 defenseman after Fowler and Hakanpaa (Manson and Lindholm were out due to injury). Zegras looked far better at center on his second stint in the NHL. Fleury began to shine in the latter part of the season to make sure we protect him in the expansion draft.
Stepped down: Steel looks overwhelmed still. Larsson looks overwhelmed still. Guhle was injury prone and stayed at the AHL level.
Stagnate: Terry has flashes. Milano has been out due to concussion issues.
Improved Special Teams
2019-20: PP eff = 14.7% (30th) ... PK eff = 77.0% (26th)
2020-21: PP eff = 8.9% (31st) ... PK eff = 79.9 % (15th)
The PK did improve. It looks a lot better with either Lindholm or Manson in the lineup, but we've missed both often for the past two seasons and the comparision is a good measure still. That PP is beyond abysmal considering GM Murray brought along offensive D Shattenkirk into the fold. Shatty had only 5 PP points. That was a failed gamble.
== Playoff Aspiration ==
4. St. Louis Blues: 57 points (24-20-9)
8. Anaheim Ducks: 43 points (17-30-9)
The goal to be a playoff team was to win the 4th spot. The difference is 14 points to tie for 4th, 15 points to rightfully get in without a tie breaker. That would be 7 wins and an OT loss for 15 points. Would it be a huge stretch to get there if both Lindholm and Manson where healthy together for most of the season? Let's do some breakdowns.
| Ducks '21 | | | | | | | | |
| Game Set | Games | GF | GA | Goal Diff | W | L | OTL | Pts |
| 1 to 21 | 21 | 42 | 61 | -19 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 17 |
| 22 to 32 | 11 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| 33 to 47 | 15 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 11 |
| 48 to 56 | 9 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| | | | | | | | |
| Total | 56 | 126 | 179 | -53 | 17 | 30 | 9 | 43 |
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Why the odd breakdowns? Game 21 was the last game Lindholm played for the season. Lindholm only participated in 18 games, though. Game 33-47 was a stretch where Manson played in consecutively. Manson did play three games in the "22 to 32" games; we went 2-0-1 (5 pts) in that set. Without Manson in the "22 to 32" set, the team record is 1-7-0 (2 pts). Manson also played in the last two games of the season; we went 0-0-2 (2 pts) in that set. Without Manson in that "48 to 56" set, the team record is 3-4-0 (6 pts). In those two sets (22 to 32 and 48 to 56), Manson added 7 points for the team. That's how important having Manson back in the lineup is for the Ducks. Lindholm tried keeping the Ducks up by his lonesome for a while until he broke.
Please note the goal differential for set "22 to 32" is -20, but that was done in about half the games (11 games) played than with Lindholm (21 games)!
One-goal games
| Game Set | Games | 1-goal games | W | L | OTL | Pts | . | 1-goal games % |
| 1 to 21 | 21 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | | 66.7% |
| 22 to 32 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | | 54.5% |
| 33 to 47 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | | 26.7% |
| 48 to 56 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | | 55.6% |
| | | | | | | | |
| Total | 56 | 29 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 29 | | 51.8% |
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With Lindholm in the lineup, over two-thirds of our games were one-goal games. Remember, Manson only played with Lindholm in the same game three times, the first three games of the season. Manson was involved in 3 one-goal games in the "22 to 32" set and 2 one-goal games in the "48 to 56" set. (
The record for these Manson bits is in the previous section.) Remember, there are some games where the Ducks pulled their goalie being down by one goal only to lose by allowing an empty netter or two. The Ducks left 29 points off the sheets. It is within these one-goal game sets where the Ducks could improve despite owning a crappy PP. Recover half of the 29 points left off the sheet and we get those 15 missing points to get into the playoffs. We might still be first round fodder, but the path was there this season to sneak into the playoffs if all things went right, which they didn't.
We did drop in one-goal games when Manson returned consecutively for the "33 to 47" game set. Let's look at "Non one-goal games" next.
Non one-goal games
| Game Set | Games | Non 1-goal games | W | L | OTL | Pts |
| 1 to 21 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 22 to 32 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 to 47 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 48 to 56 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| | | | | | |
| Total | 56 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 14 |
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We actually played better with Manson's "33 to 47" game set in the Non one-goal game sets. That's why there was a drop in one-goal games with Manson back in the lineup. We produced the most wins and points when the game isn't close. Can you imagine just how much closer to the playoffs we could have been with a healthy Lindholm and Manson for the whole or most of the season?!
...
Wait... there's more! Trade deadline acquisition D Fleury caught fire by adding offense to his play to the point we fans believe we are going to protect him from the expansion draft. He is part of the reason why we looked better in the last nine game stretch, games 48 to 56. Fleury will turn 25 next season and could be a real gem. Then add in an off-season to grow for young Drysdale and the Ducks will have more depth on the blue line going forward.
Potential Pairings in 2021-22
Lindholm-Manson
Fowler-Drysdale
Fleury-Shattenkirk
Fleury is the type of player GM Murray has been trying to acquire to help speed up the rebuild process. Last trade deadline, GM Murray traded for 24 year old winger Heinen, 24 year old LW Milano, and 25 year old D Djoos. Along with Fleury, the Ducks traded for 23-year old Volkov. Granted, all of those players are low key additions. We didn't have any cap space to afford better. That is part of the reason we lost Djoos, we had to find room for Kelser's full contract to maximize his full LTIR cap space. (Of course, Murray could have waived Larsson instead of Djoos.)
Going into next season, the Ducks will have $19.9 mil in cap space available. Grabbing a top-6 forward in FA or trade should be GM Murray's priority, especially now that the league will revert to its old playoff qualifier of top-8 in the conference. Trading Rakell (team's #2 scorer) and/or Manson (I've already explained his importance to the team) makes no sense if the team is looking to lurch forward into playoff talk. Why do we want future assets when we want to win sooner? We have three top-10 picks in the past three seasons, one of them will be top-4 in this year's draft. We doubled up in the 2019 first round with LW Tracey and 2020 first round with RW Perreault. C Groulx in the AHL and we could sign collegian LW McLaughlin. We have a plethora of defenseman developing in RHD Andersson (already in the AHL), junior collegians in LaCombe and Thrun, as well as the 2020 set of RHD's Moore along with Nickl. Geez, we still have Larsson and Guhle in tow! Again, we're going to own at least a top-4 pick this year and the second pick in the second round.
We have a lot of assets. What we don't have is enough proven NHL talent to push the Ducks toward the playoffs at the forward position. I knew that going into this season. I wasn't oblivious to this fact. I'm an optimist, which is why I thought we could vie for 4th. I do not have delusions of grandeur to win the West, and then call the season an epic fail because the GM wants the team to go to the playoffs in some odd extreme that excludes so many facts.
This team is set to jump forward and GM Murray needs to find that top-6 forward (or top-3) this off-season. Dunno if we can pry RHN from the Oil, but a cheaper alternative is Taylor Hall, who looks better now that he's escaped Buffalo and into Boston, but hopefully on a short deal. Unfortunately, most UFA forwards are age 28 or older. We could trade for a younger player.
