Recency bias.....let me see if I can find the long term stats....One out of the last 12 have won it despite in theory being the best or one of the best teams.
Recency bias.....let me see if I can find the long term stats....
One out of the last 12 have won it despite in theory being the best or one of the best teams.
But 2 in 13 if you go back another year. 3 in 18, 4 in 19, 5 in 21. Plus the Canucks were agonizingly close when they won it.
The second place team has won 3 of 34, the President's Trophy winner 8 of 34. President's Trophy winner has more than second and third combined. Most Cup wins and finals appearances than any other position.
It isn't a guarantee, people just treat it like it should be. There's parity in the league and finishing first could mean you're the best but in a playoff series a million things could go against you and result in a loss. Over a long enough time it would most likely even out the way it has, with the top team winning more often than any other team.
In a vacuum I agree with that, but this year I'm surprised they are even giving it out. Who knows what the best team is with the setup we have and the random shutdowns for teams? Boston in theory could have won it last year but they didn't bother, that would be another miss but I don't think it has any relevance this year.
I'm a little concerned the curse exists because teams have gotten much smarter in the last decade or so about resting veterans and not chasing every last point once playoffs were assured. To me the top regular season team these days in all sports is a potential mess in the playoffs because they got some breaks and probably relatively better injury luck. In the NHL it's probably magnified.
Plus in this particular case how much of it was driven by the two goalie strategy? That edge is gone next week.
I agree it's weird it's given this year, or even personal awards really, but we're there so may as well try. Also can't rest because we don't want the Wild in the first round.
Since the lockout the winners of the Cup and their corresponding positions have been pretty spread out without any position standing out even if the top seeds seemingly still have the best chance but by way less of a margin. Excluding last year because there's too much going on that season (and again, I agree with you it's probably true for this season.)
1st-2 Cups
2nd-1 Cup
3rd-2 Cups
4th-2 Cups
5th-0 Cups
6th-1 Cups
7th-2 Cups
8th-1 Cups
9th-1 Cups
10th-0 Cups
11th-0 Cups
12th-1 Cups
13th-1 Cups
14th-16th-0 Cups
1st-5th-7 Cups
6th-13th-7 Cups
I think this points to what the NHL wanted with the salary cap, parity in the league will make it less likely the top seeds in general, not only the President's Trophy winner, pile up wins at the same clip they used to do even if it may be slightly more likely the top seeds get a few more wins than middle and bottom seeds in a long enough spread of years.
I agree it's weird it's given this year, or even personal awards really, but we're there so may as well try. Also can't rest because we don't want the Wild in the first round.
Since the lockout the winners of the Cup and their corresponding positions have been pretty spread out without any position standing out even if the top seeds seemingly still have the best chance but by way less of a margin. Excluding last year because there's too much going on that season (and again, I agree with you it's probably true for this season.)
1st-2 Cups
2nd-1 Cup
3rd-2 Cups
4th-2 Cups
5th-0 Cups
6th-1 Cups
7th-2 Cups
8th-1 Cups
9th-1 Cups
10th-0 Cups
11th-0 Cups
12th-1 Cups
13th-1 Cups
14th-16th-0 Cups
1st-5th-7 Cups
6th-13th-7 Cups
I think this points to what the NHL wanted with the salary cap, parity in the league will make it less likely the top seeds in general, not only the President's Trophy winner, pile up wins at the same clip they used to do even if it may be slightly more likely the top seeds get a few more wins than middle and bottom seeds in a long enough spread of years.
23% of the trophy winners win the cup, which sounds low(Not even a 4th!?) until you realize those are really good odds at winning the cup.
Yes you still get parity and the higher you are seeded, the better your chances (but the lower seeds still have a shot). Looking at this, finishing in the top 4 looks good enough. I think it’s a fluke the 5 seed hasn’t won while several lower seeds have won.
1-4: 7 Cups
5-8: 4 Cups
9-12: 2 Cups
13-16: 1 Cup
Yes you still get parity and the higher you are seeded, the better your chances (but the lower seeds still have a shot). Looking at this, finishing in the top 4 looks good enough. I think it’s a fluke the 5 seed hasn’t won while several lower seeds have won.
1-4: 7 Cups
5-8: 4 Cups
9-12: 2 Cups
13-16: 1 Cup