GDT: Game 54 vs Blues 6:30 Knight Time (7 puck drop)

[willy702]

One out of the last 12 have won it despite in theory being the best or one of the best teams.

 

[IceNeophyte]

One out of the last 12 have won it despite in theory being the best or one of the best teams.

Recency bias.....let me see if I can find the long term stats....

 

[willy702]

Recency bias.....let me see if I can find the long term stats....

I think it's more relevant since the implementation of the cap. Two winners in 15 seasons so not terrible odds, but they call it a curse because 5 out of those 15 seasons saw the trophy winners lose in the first round. All those losses were pretty shocking.

 

[Vegan Knight]

One out of the last 12 have won it despite in theory being the best or one of the best teams.

But 2 in 13 if you go back another year. 3 in 18, 4 in 19, 5 in 21. Plus the Canucks were agonizingly close when they won it.

The second place team has won 3 of 34, the President's Trophy winner 8 of 34. President's Trophy winner has more than second and third combined. Most Cup wins and finals appearances than any other position.

It isn't a guarantee, people just treat it like it should be. There's parity in the league and finishing first could mean you're the best but in a playoff series a million things could go against you and result in a loss. Over a long enough time it would most likely even out the way it has, with the top team winning more often than any other team.

 

[willy702]

But 2 in 13 if you go back another year. 3 in 18, 4 in 19, 5 in 21. Plus the Canucks were agonizingly close when they won it.

The second place team has won 3 of 34, the President's Trophy winner 8 of 34. President's Trophy winner has more than second and third combined. Most Cup wins and finals appearances than any other position.

It isn't a guarantee, people just treat it like it should be. There's parity in the league and finishing first could mean you're the best but in a playoff series a million things could go against you and result in a loss. Over a long enough time it would most likely even out the way it has, with the top team winning more often than any other team.

In a vacuum I agree with that, but this year I'm surprised they are even giving it out. Who knows what the best team is with the setup we have and the random shutdowns for teams? Boston in theory could have won it last year but they didn't bother, that would be another miss but I don't think it has any relevance this year.

I'm a little concerned the curse exists because teams have gotten much smarter in the last decade or so about resting veterans and not chasing every last point once playoffs were assured. To me the top regular season team these days in all sports is a potential mess in the playoffs because they got some breaks and probably relatively better injury luck. In the NHL it's probably magnified.

Plus in this particular case how much of it was driven by the two goalie strategy? That edge is gone next week.

 

[Vegan Knight]

In a vacuum I agree with that, but this year I'm surprised they are even giving it out. Who knows what the best team is with the setup we have and the random shutdowns for teams? Boston in theory could have won it last year but they didn't bother, that would be another miss but I don't think it has any relevance this year.

I'm a little concerned the curse exists because teams have gotten much smarter in the last decade or so about resting veterans and not chasing every last point once playoffs were assured. To me the top regular season team these days in all sports is a potential mess in the playoffs because they got some breaks and probably relatively better injury luck. In the NHL it's probably magnified.

Plus in this particular case how much of it was driven by the two goalie strategy? That edge is gone next week.

I agree it's weird it's given this year, or even personal awards really, but we're there so may as well try. Also can't rest because we don't want the Wild in the first round.

Since the lockout the winners of the Cup and their corresponding positions have been pretty spread out without any position standing out even if the top seeds seemingly still have the best chance but by way less of a margin. Excluding last year because there's too much going on that season (and again, I agree with you it's probably true for this season.)

1st-2 Cups
2nd-1 Cup
3rd-2 Cups
4th-2 Cups
5th-0 Cups
6th-1 Cups
7th-2 Cups
8th-1 Cups
9th-1 Cups
10th-0 Cups
11th-0 Cups
12th-1 Cups
13th-1 Cups
14th-16th-0 Cups

1st-5th-7 Cups
6th-13th-7 Cups

I think this points to what the NHL wanted with the salary cap, parity in the league will make it less likely the top seeds in general, not only the President's Trophy winner, pile up wins at the same clip they used to do even if it may be slightly more likely the top seeds get a few more wins than middle and bottom seeds in a long enough spread of years.

 

[willy702]

I agree it's weird it's given this year, or even personal awards really, but we're there so may as well try. Also can't rest because we don't want the Wild in the first round.

Since the lockout the winners of the Cup and their corresponding positions have been pretty spread out without any position standing out even if the top seeds seemingly still have the best chance but by way less of a margin. Excluding last year because there's too much going on that season (and again, I agree with you it's probably true for this season.)

1st-2 Cups
2nd-1 Cup
3rd-2 Cups
4th-2 Cups
5th-0 Cups
6th-1 Cups
7th-2 Cups
8th-1 Cups
9th-1 Cups
10th-0 Cups
11th-0 Cups
12th-1 Cups
13th-1 Cups
14th-16th-0 Cups

1st-5th-7 Cups
6th-13th-7 Cups

I think this points to what the NHL wanted with the salary cap, parity in the league will make it less likely the top seeds in general, not only the President's Trophy winner, pile up wins at the same clip they used to do even if it may be slightly more likely the top seeds get a few more wins than middle and bottom seeds in a long enough spread of years.

About what I would have expected. So the Kings first Cup, I thought they were the last team in? Maybe just a matter of conferences then, but they beat the President Cup winners Vancouver. Otherwise so many 8th seeds have done damage in the years the conference playoff format was followed we always should be wary about the worst teams. For whatever reason we probably should avoid the Wild but I worry a near full strength Blues team is the toughest four seed out there this year. Not that the Knights can't beat them, just not sure there is that huge a gap between the teams at the moment.

 

[Vegas07]

The playoff format is different this year so I wonder how that affects the chances of the team with the best record. Stats from the past are from different playoff formats. The league wasn’t earn matching up the 1 seed vs. the lowest seed in the conference anymore so I don’t even like to rely on those numbers too much.

 

[Vegas07]

I agree it's weird it's given this year, or even personal awards really, but we're there so may as well try. Also can't rest because we don't want the Wild in the first round.

Since the lockout the winners of the Cup and their corresponding positions have been pretty spread out without any position standing out even if the top seeds seemingly still have the best chance but by way less of a margin. Excluding last year because there's too much going on that season (and again, I agree with you it's probably true for this season.)

1st-2 Cups
2nd-1 Cup
3rd-2 Cups
4th-2 Cups
5th-0 Cups
6th-1 Cups
7th-2 Cups
8th-1 Cups
9th-1 Cups
10th-0 Cups
11th-0 Cups
12th-1 Cups
13th-1 Cups
14th-16th-0 Cups

1st-5th-7 Cups
6th-13th-7 Cups

I think this points to what the NHL wanted with the salary cap, parity in the league will make it less likely the top seeds in general, not only the President's Trophy winner, pile up wins at the same clip they used to do even if it may be slightly more likely the top seeds get a few more wins than middle and bottom seeds in a long enough spread of years.

Yes you still get parity and the higher you are seeded, the better your chances (but the lower seeds still have a shot). Looking at this, finishing in the top 4 looks good enough. I think it’s a fluke the 5 seed hasn’t won while several lower seeds have won.

1-4: 7 Cups
5-8: 4 Cups
9-12: 2 Cups
13-16: 1 Cup

 

[Vegas07]

23% of the trophy winners win the cup, which sounds low(Not even a 4th!?) until you realize those are really good odds at winning the cup.

A higher percentage make the final round. The numbers for each seed making the third and fourth rounds would be interesting to see and the higher seeds should have a bigger gap compared to lower seeds.

 

[Vegas07]

Yes you still get parity and the higher you are seeded, the better your chances (but the lower seeds still have a shot). Looking at this, finishing in the top 4 looks good enough. I think it’s a fluke the 5 seed hasn’t won while several lower seeds have won.

1-4: 7 Cups
5-8: 4 Cups
9-12: 2 Cups
13-16: 1 Cup

It’s interesting playing around with the numbers. I think the small gap is a result of a small sample size. If we look at finals appearances the gap should be bigger.

1-5: 7 Cups
6-10: 5 Cups
11-16: 2 Cups

 

[Vegan Knight]

Yes you still get parity and the higher you are seeded, the better your chances (but the lower seeds still have a shot). Looking at this, finishing in the top 4 looks good enough. I think it’s a fluke the 5 seed hasn’t won while several lower seeds have won.

1-4: 7 Cups
5-8: 4 Cups
9-12: 2 Cups
13-16: 1 Cup

This is probably a better way to break it down lol.