GDT: Game 45: Coyotes @ Wild - 6PM - FSAZ+
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RemoAZ
Let it burn
- Sep 29, 2016
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Sad sad story. This game kind of proved what we all knew. This team would be able to do a lot more than they showed until now. A good coach would have coached like that all season long. Who knows where we would be. Of course, with a team as young as ours there's always gonna be ups and downs. But it's really just because of Tippett that we are where we are.
_Del_
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I will say this in regards to that line of thought. I think the argument that Tippett ingrained some responsibility into Turris (who was highly regarded as a two-way prospect, like Dvorak now) is certainly valid. I have no doubt that Turris was more defensively responsible due to Dave Tippett. Contrary to the strawman, I don't have an issue with teaching young players defense.
The issue is that Turris was ready and primed to be successful in a scoring role with more responsibility and Dave Tippett could not see it. He was a bottom line player in Dave's mind, because he wasn't "proven" or ready.
Except he very clearly was ready which we all saw when the Senators recognized the situation he was in and rescued him. He instantly stepped in as a responsible two-way player. I'm okay with giving some credit to Tippett in this regard if we are also fully cognizant of the fact that Kyle Turris was not going to be that player here because Tippett could not see it. "It was never going to work out here. Ever" was the quote I believe. I also think Tipp makes snap judgments on guys and then sticks to them. This was a problem when it cost us a young top6 center, and it's a problem now when guys who are in Dave's doghouse never get out (Hi Duke! -- still think it's crazy that I said last year Duclair would be traded because Tippett had already made up his mind?)
It is an evaluation problem. A comfort level problem. A veteran bias problem. Whatever it is that we call it, I should hope we recognize it as a problem. Especially for a rebuilding, if you can call it that, club.
_Del_
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He didn't need to stunt his career and wait. He was ready. You just couldn't tell because he was welded to Raffi Torres and Patty O'Sullivan on the fourth line. Literally weeks later he hit the ground (ice?) running (skating?) and never looked back.
mouser
Business of Hockey
Someone can go look up the stats if I'm wrong, but my recollection is that Tippett gave Turris a much higher % of offensive zone starts over D zone starts the season before Turris through a snit fit and wanted out.
If anything it seemed more like Tippett was shielding Turris from bad defensive matchups then taking away offensive opportunities.
We will suck for the next 5 seasons and Tippett will continue to get a free pass because of his "expectations".
Matias Maccete
Chopping up defenses
- Sep 21, 2014
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I agree. In this, our second year of our rebuild I would rather look at the positives than negatives. Right now I believe this team is underachieving but not by much considering the injuries and the Duke having the worst sophomore season as any player in the last 10 years. We all want a winning team, but in a rebuild year winning games usually are few and far between and while winning is important, the progression of the kids is even more so. Let's look at some of our kids. It's obvious that Dvorak benefited from Marner and Tkachuk more so than the other way around, but having said that, Dvorak may have progressed more than any other rookie. He is twice the player now than what he was at the beginning of the year. Chick and Crouse may have hit the wall a bit, and that is expected, but they have played well and progressed nicely. DeAngelo has played very well and would be here and will be here once he matures mentally a bit more
Perlini is playing fantastic and does not look out of place at all. At the start of the year some were worried that he might be our bust player. Dauphin has been up and down, but every time he comes back he has been better. You add Strome and Fischer next year, and probably a surprise player, and things look really exciting. I understand some getting frustrated and some of the posts are laughable, but a rebuild is very very painful and it takes time. Hang in there guys, in a couple of years we are going to be a very competitive team.
_Del_
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It is difficult to detect sarcasm in print. Don't feel bad.
You think the players sleep walking on the ice every night (again) is because of injuries and Duke?
Tell Tippett that. We're on board.
No, it's not obvious. Dvorak produced away from Marner. You would've been laughed out of a room of fans for suggesting Mattias Waltsson was better than Dvorak last season. What is obvious is that two of those players are receiving favourable usage and experiencing on ice results due to it, and one is not despite having a fairly high p/60 playing with Ryan White and Jooris.
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- Sep 29, 2016
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Thanks. Totally agree with you. I was just about to write that as well. I'd take Dvorak over Marner and even over Tkachuk any day.
Tkachuk is showing very well. Impressive. Not convinced that's sustainable though. I heard an interview with Brad Treliving recently and he talked about the same. They're worried that they're burning the guy.
No surprise Babcock got Bozak to take Marner by the hand. It's really obvious what's going on there. Bozak used to carry the Leafs defensively. This season, all of a sudden, he's receiving tons of offensive zone starts (almost 40%).
Tkachuk started even more shifts in the defensive zone than Dvorak but he received 2mins of PP time per game and doesn't play shorthanded. Both play a bit over 12mins a game but Dvorak is now at 34secs/G PK and reveived just 48secs/G on the PP.
Marner plays over 14:25 per game, 2:25 of which on the PP. As mentioned before he gets lots of offensive zone starts and has Bozak cover for him defensively.
To summarize, you could argue that Tkachuk so far had the biggest impact of the three and I wouldn't disagree. That said, Dvorak is playing on an inferior team and spent a considerable amount of his icetime playing on the 4th line or on the PK. If Tippett continues to use him like he did vs Minnesota, he'll quickly break out offensively. It's also worth noting that Dvorak has set up numerous high quality chances game after game but his linemates just weren't able to score. As he's clearly mainly a setup guy it is a problem if your linemates aren't scoring. It's also worth mentioning that Dvorak, besides Jooris who played only 13 games, is the only player on the Roster who's still north of 0 in terms of +/-. His +3 are even more impressive if you know how Tippett used him. Marner is -6 despite Babcock constantly trying to hide him.
Marner ist just Jiri Hudler vol.2. Babcock is very good at using those kind of one dimensional players but they need to be carried defensively and physically and that's most likely also what happened when Marner got to play with Tkachuk and Dvorak.
kihekah19*
Registered User
Y'all can crow about perceived victory within this loss, but:
One loss, does not a season make.
One loss, does not a season make.
He doesn't really follow prospects, so take his input with a teensy grain of salt. This is the same person that didn't think much of Matthews...
Y'all can crow about perceived victory within this loss, but:
One loss, does not a season make.
Feel free to elaborate.
Tkachuk and Marner are wings which is a way easier position to break into the NHL. Center is much harder, way more responsibility on D and taking face offs. This is why it was way easier for Domi/Duclair/Reider/Martinook and now Perlini to make the transition. You can't compare a wing breaking in to a C.
kihekah19*
Registered User
It's really quite simple, as it's easy to rise to the occasion, on occasion.
BUX7PHX
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- Jul 7, 2011
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Correct. His offensive zone starts were something like 60-40 his last time here.
This is why I just shake my head when people say "Dvorak should be getting more time - he is a +2 so far, only player in the positive."
Well, that just means that Dvorak, vs primarily 3rd and 4th line opponent skill level, is neither going to outright hurt or help you. That in no way means that he is going to "break out" as a result of getting put on the 1st or 2nd line.
Everyone has their own pace to learn at. Dvorak at least looks solid enough physically to play in the NHL. Maybe part of the reason Turris wasn't out there around 1st line competition was b/c 6'0, 170 lbs soaking wet doesn't stand a good chance against players who have a few inches and pounds on him, but are just as good on the face-off dot and in the skill aspects of the game. Same reason as why I wouldn't want to put Dvorak out on the 1st line and give him 20 minutes.
The only way that Dvorak can truly prove that he is ahead of the curve would be to be at a +10 or better with 25 points against 3rd and 4th line competition. Until then, or that he has gotten better away from the puck, in transition, etc., just be patient.
kihekah19*
Registered User
moosemeister
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Agreed. Wish he could get more PP time, but he has looked better and more confident.
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Lol, tell me more. You're ignoring quite a lot of facts here. If you're a 4th liner that doesn't automatically mean you're only gonna line up against opponent's 4th lines. I'm not into advanced stats but they would prove you wrong. For example, Dvorak's opponents allowed fewer goals than OEL's, Goligoski's or Vrbata's.
He played 1st line with 1st line minutes last night and played very well against what's probably the team leaguewide as of now. And unlike vs NJ, Minnesota played very well against us.
Which 4th liners who don't play on the PP and receive mainly defensive zone starts are +10 on a team that hardly wins games? When was the last time you saw that?
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That said, while I clearly didn't like how Tippett used Dvorak until now...if he's gonna use him as a proper 2nd line Center now and if it helped him to improve defensively (even though I think he never really was a liability) I'm good with it and it was probably worth it. My fear is though that Tippett is gonna stick both Dvorak and Perlini to the bench rather soon. He tends to be suspicious if something works too well
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BUX7PHX
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Lol, tell me more. You're ignoring quite a lot of facts here. If you're a 4th liner that doesn't automatically mean you're only gonna line up against opponent's 4th lines. I'm not into advanced stats but they would prove you wrong. For example, Dvorak's opponents allowed fewer goals than OEL's, Goligoski's or Vrbata's.
He played 1st line with 1st line minutes last night and played very well against what's probably the team leaguewide as of now. And unlike vs NJ, Minnesota played very well against us.
Which 4th liners who don't play on the PP and receive mainly defensive zone starts are +10 on a team that hardly wins games? When was the last time you saw that?
Come on. You're even worse than Tippett. Never read such bs. Sorry to say.
That said, while I clearly didn't like how Tippett used Dvorak until now...if he's gonna use him as a proper 2nd line Center now and if it helped him to improve defensively (even though I think he never really was a liability) I'm good with it and it was probably worth it. My fear is though that Tippett is gonna stick both Dvorak and Perlini to the bench rather soon. He tends to be suspicious if something works too well
While it doesn't automatically resolve to line #1 vs opposition line #1, you are conveniently ignoring that same idea to build your case. I would hedge my bets that roughly 50% - 80% of the TOI factors to where the players are playing against a similar line quality. Unfortunately, Corsi RelQoC is not something that is immediately available, from what I can tell. So while you are correct that it is not guaranteed that 3rd line plays vs 3rd line all the time, I think that any coach that juggles the situations so that his #1 line plays against the #4, at the expense of having his #4 line go against the opposition's #1 line is setting themselves up for some interesting impacts to the team. Especially considering that our 1st line is not nearly as talented as other team's first lines.
In other words, as a coach, you attempt to put your best line against the other team's best line, and don't go out of your way to put the worst line against the best line, which is what you are implying is happening with Dvorak, or that it happens far more often than what I think it does. Again, this goes back to what I have been saying all along - you don't purposely put players in the most difficult positions possible, unless warranted by their play truly moving them into that role. That goes for rookies and veterans alike.
For the bold, 2014-15 Daniel Winnik says "hi". He was on the 3rd/4th line in Toronto and posted a +15 prior to the trade to Pittsburgh. I was giving an example of when you can truly say that this player deserves to be moved up a line. Regardless of how good or bad the team is, it will be blatantly obvious when someone has reached that level, and I shouldn't have put points or a +/- scale up to get to that conclusion.
EDIT: not probably the answer that you or I were looking for, but here are some of last year's Corsi Rel QoC:
Martinook: .905
Rieder: .894
Richardson: .817
Hanzal: .785
Doan: .633
Domi: .600
Dauphin: .554
Vermette: .530
Tanguay: .515
Duclair: .269
Gordon: .212
The higher the number, the better quality of competition that you are facing. Now, the only thing that I can speculate out of this is that since Duclair was generally playing against weaker competition, his play may have stagnated from playing against slightly better quality this year. Is the quality of opposition enough to push him into the Martinook, Rieder, Hanzal territory? I don't know that answer for certain - Duclair has had Hanzal and Rieder as linemates 44% of the time in the last 10 games. But Duclair has found himself playing with Dvorak about 20% of the time in those last 10 games, too. So, I will also speculate that the reality is that with Dvorak and Duclair on the same line, they are also playing against slightly weaker competition, compared to the rest of the Yotes roster.
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