GDT: Game 4: Colorado Avalanche(2-0-0) @ Seattle Kraken(0-2-1) - 7:00 p.m. PT / 10:00 p.m. ET

[kihei]

No lack of scoring chances that game. We just can't put the puck in the net. After the elation of last year, this is a depressing start even though the season is only four games old.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

Well, I thought the broadcaster had it right when he said something like "that Kraken power play has taken all the wind out of the sails of the Kraken".
He then also stated that "it's one thing to not score on the power play, but it's another one to completely lose momentum because of it".

I know Hakstol wanted to downplay the problems before the season but unless we're able to score on the power play we won't do sh*** this season cause you can't count on having another year with an insane team shooting percentage.

Well, off to the next one, I guess, against the Hurricanes on Thursday....

 

[Quackenator]

well this sucks...hopefully they start gelling together sooner than later.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

A lot of us expected our goal scoring to go down because the high shooting percentage from last season was hard to sustain. But it is ridiculous how bad our PP has been. Forget scoring goals on the PP, we are giving up goals. Hakstol needs to figure this out quick, but I don't have much hope that he can given how long the problem has been around.

 

[GrungeHockey]

The PP was bad last year and now it's even worse but I don't see an easy fix. They simply don't have the personnel for that.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

The PP was bad last year and now it's even worse but I don't see an easy fix. They simply don't have the personnel for that.

Sure. We could use more skill on the team, but we are worse than where we should be given our roster. That is on the coaching.

I will be honest, while I enjoyed last year's playoff run, I was really concerned about us falling flat this season and Hakstol not being on the hot seat because he took us to the playoffs.

If we are going to suck, then let's stay bottom 5 and at least get some picks for it. I hate taking a step back but would rather be in the bottom-5 than middling in the 13-15 range and just miss the playoffs.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

The PP was bad last year and now it's even worse but I don't see an easy fix. They simply don't have the personnel for that.

Well yeah.
The easiest way to fix a power play is adding highly skilled players to the mix.

Though, even with the current group you could do more than just stand still in a 1-3-1 system that tries to get the puck to the outside for someone to shoot.
And while they're doing that, they all of a sudden have moved Tolvanen(one of the best shooters) to the left side, completely taking away his shot/strength.

Overall they should try and "get moving" a bit cause that's the only way you can force the other teams pk to move as well and potentially leave some room for you.
Having someone net front would also be nice, but I'm not sure there's a forward on this team who's good at that and taller than maybe 5'10.

On top of that, I don't think we have the guys on the blueline to add too much cause our highest paid guy(Dunn) seems to be having a real hard time doing anything on the pp.
Though, mayxbe Ryker Evans does get a call up, at some point, cause with him the pp looked way better given his ability to move laterally.

Sure. We could use more skill on the team, but we are worse than where we should be given our roster. That is on the coaching.

I will be honest, while I enjoyed last year's playoff run, I was really concerned about us falling flat this season and Hakstol not being on the hot seat because he took us to the playoffs.

If we are going to suck, then let's stay bottom 5 and at least get some picks for it. I hate taking a step back but would rather be in the bottom-5 than middling in the 13-15 range and just miss the playoffs.

Ideally you either go to the playoffs(and actually compete) or you're drafting pretty high to bring in those highly talented guys that help you compete later on.

Though, I doubt this team will be in the bottom five cause at some point they will score some goals given that their current team shooting percentage ov 2.4% is not sustainable either.

But hey, maybe the goaltending and pk will go south as soon as we do this and we'll still lose.

 

[Fuhrious]

 

[GrungeHockey]

Sure. We could use more skill on the team, but we are worse than where we should be given our roster. That is on the coaching.

I will be honest, while I enjoyed last year's playoff run, I was really concerned about us falling flat this season and Hakstol not being on the hot seat because he took us to the playoffs.

If we are going to suck, then let's stay bottom 5 and at least get some picks for it. I hate taking a step back but would rather be in the bottom-5 than middling in the 13-15 range and just miss the playoffs.

No, I can't subscribe to that. I think you want to be as good as you can be every year and the draft is the draft, it's never a sure thing anyway. Wright was consensus top 5 but he's lower now if you redraft. imo you keep trying to be better than the year before but it will be up and down and sure, if it's too much down you put it on the coach first and then the players if that doesn't help.

But you don't dump on Hakstol this fast after lauding him last year as doing a great job. Some continuity is necessary.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

No, I can't subscribe to that. I think you want to be as good as you can be every year and the draft is the draft, it's never a sure thing anyway. Wright was consensus top 5 but he's lower now if you redraft. imo you keep trying to be better than the year before but it will be up and down and sure, if it's too much down you put it on the coach first and then the players if that doesn't help.

But you don't dump on Hakstol this fast after lauding him last year as doing a great job. Some continuity is necessary.

Gotta disagree here.

Please name me a team not called St. Louis Blues taking that "staying competitive" approach and actually doing sh**(winning the cup) during the salary cap era.

I mean, sure you could name Vegas but they had insane amounts of draft capital/prospects thanks to the huge haul they got at the expansion draft.

 

[majormajor]

Gotta disagree here.

Please name me a team not called St. Louis Blues taking that "staying competitive" approach and actually doing sh**(winning the cup) during the salary cap era.

I mean, sure you could name Vegas but they had insane amounts of draft capital/prospects thanks to the huge haul they got at the expansion draft.

Boston, St. Louis, etc... to some extent Dallas and Tampa.

Vegas is a different model - largely eschewing building through the draft. That also has its virtues when there are so many rebuilding teams and you can trade picks for great players.

This topic is more about building well without bottoming out. Can you draft well enough without being bad?

You might draft Pastrnak and McAvoy deeper in the draft (or how about Kucherov and Point?). And you can also finish bottom five and get a middling player.

Last year's draft had many great players, great time to bottom out. It wasn't that way in 2022. And I don't think it's that way in 2024, I watch prospects and I'm not blown away by the talent at the top. I think you can trade for better players, or just try to win and find the best player in the mid first.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

Boston, St. Louis, etc... to some extent Dallas and Tampa.

Vegas is a different model - largely eschewing building through the draft. That also has its virtues when there are so many rebuilding teams and you can trade picks for great players.

This topic is more about building well without bottoming out. Can you draft well enough without being bad?

You might draft Pastrnak and McAvoy deeper in the draft (or how about Kucherov and Point?). And you can also finish bottom five and get a middling player.

Last year's draft had many great players, great time to bottom out. It wasn't that way in 2022. And I don't think it's that way in 2024, I watch prospects and I'm not blown away by the talent at the top. I think you can trade for better players, or just try to win and find the best player in the mid first.

The current salary cap era started around 2005 after the lockout back then.
So Dallas winning it in 1999 doesn't really fit.

Boston is the one I had in mind with St. Louis, who are the exception to the rule.

Tampa Bay drafted Stamkos #1, Hedman #2 and Drouin #3 and then traded Drouin for Sergachev who was an important part to their championships.

Of course you'll have to draft well in later rounds(to fill out your roster and bring in guys on ELC's to help you financially) but the most realistic chance to win in the current system is to have a couple of bad years(don't have to be five years in a row) drafting really high to get the elite talent to built your team around.

Overall I don't expect to Kraken to be really bad this season and I think they'll draft in the 12 - 20 range(if they keep the pick) unless something really strange happens and they go back to their shooting percentage from before the Carolina game.

So basically I see them as a bubble team that might or might not make the playoffs but doesn't really have the upside to actuallyl challenge for the cup but also isn't bad enough to draft really high.

And quite frankly, as a former Sonics fan, that makes me a bit uncomforable cause they also tried that formula and presented fans with a couple "five year plans" in a row that resulted in absolutely predictable seasons and put them in the worst place you can be in american sports, which is mediocrity.

That's why I hope Francis does a better job(I believe he can) and am curious to see if he'll actually swing for the fences to try and bring in a big name via trade.

 

[majormajor]

The current salary cap era started around 2005 after the lockout back then.
So Dallas winning it in 1999 doesn't really fit.

Boston is the one I had in mind with St. Louis, who are the exception to the rule.

Tampa Bay drafted Stamkos #1, Hedman #2 and Drouin #3 and then traded Drouin for Sergachev who was an important part to their championships.

Of course you'll have to draft well in later rounds(to fill out your roster and bring in guys on ELC's to help you financially) but the most realistic chance to win in the current system is to have a couple of bad years(don't have to be five years in a row) drafting really high to get the elite talent to built your team around.

Overall I don't expect to Kraken to be really bad this season and I think they'll draft in the 12 - 20 range(if they keep the pick) unless something really strange happens and they go back to their shooting percentage from before the Carolina game.

So basically I see them as a bubble team that might or might not make the playoffs but doesn't really have the upside to actuallyl challenge for the cup but also isn't bad enough to draft really high.

And quite frankly, as a former Sonics fan, that makes me a bit uncomforable cause they also tried that formula and presented fans with a couple "five year plans" in a row that resulted in absolutely predictable seasons and put them in the worst place you can be in american sports, which is mediocrity.

That's why I hope Francis does a better job(I believe he can) and am curious to see if he'll actually swing for the fences to try and bring in a big name via trade.

I was talking about the current teams, like Dallas now. Their elite top line doesn't even have any first rounders on it. The other semi finalist is Carolina, whose 1C was a second rounder and is paired with Jarvis, drafted 13th. Tampa's top line is Point and Kucherov (Stamkos is secondary), neither drafted in the first round. Same thing with Bergeron+Marchand. This idea that you need to draft at the top to get elite players needs to die an unceremonious death.

 

[GrungeHockey]

Gotta disagree here.

Please name me a team not called St. Louis Blues taking that "staying competitive" approach and actually doing sh**(winning the cup) during the salary cap era.

I mean, sure you could name Vegas but they had insane amounts of draft capital/prospects thanks to the huge haul they got at the expansion draft.

Well "winning the cup" is a lot to ask as few teams do that but lots of teams have stayed in the hunt. So doing sh%% there's lots. Bruins for example. Penguins. Tampa. Leafs. etc. None of them have kept many draft picks for years now.

But that wasn't really my point. My point was there is no strategy in finishing lower on purpose. Buffalo drafts top 10 every year and what's it done for them???

Whether we draft 5, 6, 10, 12, none of it matters. Getting a 2nd rounder (like the Bruins seem to have done with Poitras) or even lower, now that will make you a good team.

 

[Kat Predator]

Well "winning the cup" is a lot to ask as few teams do that but lots of teams have stayed in the hunt. So doing sh%% there's lots. Bruins for example. Penguins. Tampa. Leafs. etc. None of them have kept many draft picks for years now.

But that wasn't really my point. My point was there is no strategy in finishing lower on purpose. Buffalo drafts top 10 every year and what's it done for them???

Whether we draft 5, 6, 10, 12, none of it matters. Getting a 2nd rounder (like the Bruins seem to have done with Poitras) or even lower, now that will make you a good team.

Vegas is a counterexample to all the standard arguments on the necessity to tank for draft picks.

Has Vegas ever drafted first overall? No.
How much time has their owner agreed that they need to spend as a bottom feeder? 0 seconds. (He said when the franchise was granted, he was about winning and winning a Cup.)
How many generational talents have they drafted? 0.
Vegas has drafted and developed how many of their own top picks? 0. (Only 1 draft pick even played significant minutes last year, a 2nd rounder.)

On the other side of the ledger.

Have they won? Never had a losing season.
Have the made the playoffs? Every year except 1.
Have they won in the playoffs? Yes.
Have they won a Cup? Yes.

The Knights destroy the argument that a team must tank and draft a generational talent, etc. to be successful singlehandedly. The most that can be said is that they've burned their draft capital to the ground to make trades for actual good players that fit the team. Which is another way of saying, their ability and quality of drafting anyone, let alone top picks, has been irrelevant.

They are just a very good team, arguably the best overall team top to bottom, is a sport with incredibly thin margins between winning and losing, and in which elevated team play by an entire roster is requisite to success. (Unlike every other major sport, everyone sees the ice; you can't win a Cup if your 20 has a number of passengers just filling the bench.)

Still, we'll keep being fed the line that tanking is the only real way to go. That has more to do with marketing than actual data. They want to be able to market a hero / savior as the face of a franchise. Obviously a hero is the singular point of focus and the reason the Sun circles the Earth, etc. (Actually a hero, like a Bedard, makes a lot of people money, not least of them are the TV networks airing NHL games.) To be clear, watching an amazing talent is indeed fun. Lots of Wow! moments for sure. But it should also be understood that there are talented players (like Eichel) who were/are stuck on a bad roster, with bad coaching, and a front office with no plan other than "I hope we get lucky".

 

[GrungeHockey]

You're not wrong and I don't disagree with most of this but the bottom line to me is that there are multiple paths to winning cups and good management is just good management.

Regarding Vegas specifically you didn't mention two things. One, they got a leg up with other GMs making all those side deals due to the new expansion rules. They were better prepped for what was coming when Seattle joined so we didn't reap that early benefit. It'll never happen again.

Two, they cheated on the salary cap. I guess both of these things are "good" management as they "used" the existing rules to their benefit, but bottom line is they were well over the cap.

Lastly regarding Eichel it wasn't like you suggest at all. Eichel had a lot to do with why Buffalo has failed so badly. His character led to a lot of their issues. Coming to Vegas he was no longer the big captain and he had something to prove. He had to prove it and he had to humble himself and listen to Cassidy. He did, they won, lets see how long it lasts cause the ego on that guy might eventually consume the whole franchise. Arguably Buffalo handled him poorly and on another team he might have developed differently but in Buffalo he was a full on diva.

 

[Kat Predator]

You're not wrong and I don't disagree with most of this but the bottom line to me is that there are multiple paths to winning cups and good management is just good management.

Regarding Vegas specifically you didn't mention two things. One, they got a leg up with other GMs making all those side deals due to the new expansion rules. They were better prepped for what was coming when Seattle joined so we didn't reap that early benefit. It'll never happen again.

To some degree, our management simply didn't want to go that route. Ron Francis has said from Day 1 that he wants to build an entire organization for sustained success and do it through the draft. And there is nothing wrong with that.

But that approach has been eschewed by our friends in Vegas. They're not in the business of building through the draft and never were.

Two, they cheated on the salary cap. I guess both of these things are "good" management as they "used" the existing rules to their benefit, but bottom line is they were well over the cap.

Lastly regarding Eichel it wasn't like you suggest at all. Eichel had a lot to do with why Buffalo has failed so badly. His character led to a lot of their issues. Coming to Vegas he was no longer the big captain and he had something to prove. He had to prove it and he had to humble himself and listen to Cassidy. He did, they won, lets see how long it lasts cause the ego on that guy might eventually consume the whole franchise. Arguably Buffalo handled him poorly and on another team he might have developed differently but in Buffalo he was a full on diva.

There is a lot wrong in Buffalo and it has been wrong for many years. Yeah, Eichel was a big part of that for his time there. Honestly, I only mentioned his name because the "tank for picks" argument has adopted him specifically as the Vegas poster boy of a high draft pick, etc. (An example of curve fitting the data.) Stone is deservedly the captain of that team and the one that sets the bar.

PS: The point in a nutshell. Eichel was a very high pick. He was part of a disaster in Buffalo. Buffalo bottoming out for him didn't benefit them at all. Vegas having him did help their cause, of course, but they didn't intentionally bottom out to get him. Buffalo wanted him gone.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

@Kat Predator

Vegas also had an insane expansion draft getting a complete first line and insane amounts of draft picks which created a load of value they were able to use and turn into actual high end players.

Jack Eichel was the former #2 OVR pick and a guy that will give yo a point per game.
etc.

So it's a bit tough to use them as an example for a team that's using the "stay copetive route" given that they were able to assemble a huge amount of value that got them their current team.

The Kraken never had that amount of extra value and therefore will have a way harder time trying to do something like that.
Just like every other team that didn't start with the current expansion draft rules.

But even using the Golden Knights, you now have Vegas(1x), St. Louis(1x) and Boston(1x) as the three cups during the salary cap era won by teams that didn't draft key pieces for their runs.

Anyways, like I've said before, I'm curious to see how Francis will keep on building this thing because this roster is one of the most mediocre ones of this league and needs high end talent to be able to take the next step.

 

[GrungeHockey]

Agreed. I'd challenge him to make the non draft argument without Vegas in the mix. They are an outlier and as I said a few posts back that won't happen again because the league wised up.

 

[Kat Predator]

But even using the Golden Knights, you now have Vegas(1x), St. Louis(1x) and Boston(1x) as the three cups during the salary cap era won by teams that didn't draft key pieces for their runs.

Agreed. I'd challenge him to make the non draft argument without Vegas in the mix. They are an outlier and as I said a few posts back that won't happen again because the league wised up.

See Rainy's post.

 

[Kat Predator]

Anyways, like I've said before, I'm curious to see how Francis will keep on building this thing because this roster is one of the most mediocre ones of this league and needs high end talent to be able to take the next step.

I don't think Seattle is loaded with top end talent either. On the other hand, they came together as a team last year and beat teams with top end talent in the playoffs. [Ed: We lost to Dallas.] But that's in the rearview. New year, new team.

At any rate, I'm curious to see what Francis does as well. I see him as a conservative, traditional GM. People love it when their GM says all the right things and talks with confidence, of course. But there are 31 other guys all trying to rob the same train. Realistically, a GM has to explore all the avenues available. It's just self-defeating not to.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Anyways, like I've said before, I'm curious to see how Francis will keep on building this thing because this roster is one of the most mediocre ones of this league and needs high end talent to be able to take the next step.

Hard to argue against the mediocre roster point. I would get that Francis' plan here is hoping that our picks pan out and defy expectations to become game changers. Either that or Francis goes entirely against his nature and tries to sign some high end FA's.

I don't think we are as bad as our points total show BUT with Schwartz, Bura and Tanev out, things are unlikely to get better. Last season, in my mind, should be seen as an aberration and we are still on a 3-5 year build plan. However, that is still largely dependent on how our current picks pan out as in the next 2 seasons.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

I don't think Seattle is loaded with top end talent either. On the other hand, they came together as a team last year and beat teams with top end talent in the playoffs. They lost to the eventual Cup winners, in fact. But that's in the rearview. New year, new team.

We did beat a team with top end talent but that team(Colorado) was playing without about half of their roster and had only one line left.
And it still took us seven games.

Overall it was a great run last year but basically everything went our way as we had next to no injuries(besides Burakovsky and three games without McCann) while our shooting efficency bailed out or mediocre defense and less than mediocre(during the regular season) goaltending.

We also lost to Dallas and not the eventual cup winners.

Hard to argue against the mediocre roster point. I would get that Francis' plan here is hoping that our picks pan out and defy expectations to become game changers. Either that or Francis goes entirely against his nature and tries to sign some high end FA's.

I don't think we are as bad as our points total show BUT with Schwartz, Bura and Tanev out, things are unlikely to get better. Last season, in my mind, should be seen as an aberration and we are still on a 3-5 year build plan. However, that is still largely dependent on how our current picks pan out as in the next 2 seasons.

I really hope Francis doesn't believe that those picks are going to produce all the game changers you need.
I mean, so far Beniers looks solid, but the jury's still out on Wright while the other guys were drafted at #20 or in rounds 2 - 7.
I'm absolutely rooting for all of those guys but realistically a good number of them might not even make it to the NHL or stay all that long within the league.

I also don't think we're as bad as the point total shows but at some point you can't just keep on bringing it up while giving your starting goalie a goal support of less than one goal per game.
The injuries also won't help with that.

BTW: I don't think Francis will ever completely change his nature but him being in on Karlsson and even talking to him(according to Karlsson, who said we were one of the teams he talked to) shows me that he understands what the need(high end talent) for this team is.

Also, please don't ever go out and spend huge on free agents. 99% those contracts aren't worth it, at all.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

We did beat a team with top end talent but that team(Colorado) was playing without about half of their roster and had only one line left.
And it still took us seven games.

Overall it was a great run last year but basically everything went our way as we had next to no injuries(besides Burakovsky and three games without McCann) while our shooting efficency bailed out or mediocre defense and less than mediocre(during the regular season) goaltending.

We also lost to Dallas and not the eventual cup winners.



I really hope Francis doesn't believe that those picks are going to produce all the game changers you need.
I mean, so far Beniers looks solid, but the jury's still out on Wright while the other guys were drafted at #20 or in rounds 2 - 7.
I'm absolutely rooting for all of those guys but realistically a good number of them might not even make it to the NHL or stay all that long within the league.

I also don't think we're as bad as the point total shows but at some point you can't just keep on bringing taht up while giving your starting goalie a goal support of less than one goal per game.
The injuries also won't help with that.

BTW: I don't think Francis will ever change his nature but him being in on Karlsson and even talking to him(according to Karlsson, who said we were one of the teams he talked to) shows me that he understands what the need for this team is.

Also, please don't ever go out and spend huge on free agents. 99% those contracts aren't worth it, at all.

Yeah. You are 100% right, there is only so much hiding we can do behind the "our team is better than the points". At the end of the season, the only thing will count is the point totals.

Regarding our prospect pool producing game cħangers is concerned, I am certainly not sold on Wright becoming one, mainly because of the way he plays offense. I currently see his ceiling as a really good defensive 2C at 55-60 points a season. Maybe he gets better than that, but remains to be seen.

Sale, Firkus, Dragicevic, Nelson, Nyman, Rehkopf have the offensive skill to become gamechangers but they are still 2-3 seasons away from cracking the NHL roster.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

Yeah. You are 100% right, there is only so much hiding we can do behind the "our team is better than the points". At the end of the season, the only thing will count is the point totals.

Regarding our prospect pool producing game cħangers is concerned, I am certainly not sold on Wright becoming one, mainly because of the way he plays offense. I currently see his ceiling as a really good defensive 2C at 55-60 points a season. Maybe he gets better than that, but remains to be seen.

Sale, Firkus, Dragicevic, Nelson, Nyman, Rehkopf have the offensive skill to become gamechangers but they are still 2-3 seasons away from cracking the NHL roster.

Yeah, Wright seems like a solid 2C and that wouldn't be a problem.
The problem is that you do need someone to come in and be more than just a good 2nd line guy that can give you 0.8 ppg.
You really need a difference maker to bail you out when things aren't going your way and you probably shouldn't get points after being outplayed.

I do like the kids and I'm high on Sale.
The other guys could be good(Nyman, Dragicevic and Firkus could be, more cause they're more high risk picks) but seem more like guys that have a path to the league, but more as role players.

I think that's good(you need guys on ELC's filling a role) but at some point that difference maker needs to show up on your team.