GDT: Game 18 | Senators @ Devils | Who's Bad? Edition | Wed Nov. 13th, 7:00PM | SN360, TVAS

[Cosmix]

Maybe NJ would be interested in acquiring Anderson before the trade deadline, they could use an upgrade in net in a bad way.

No, we need Anderson . . . For the tank.

 

[Cosmix]

He is making 3.4 mil in actual dollars this year, there is very little chance that his negotiations don't start from there and go up given the cap will have risen and he's currently having a career year that nobody would have predicted when he signed the last deal. His last deal was also lower because it was primarily RFA years. This deal will be all UFA years.

My guess is the best we can hope for is something averaging between 4 and 4.5 depending on term, but my guess is market value places him more in the 4.5 to around the 5 range particularly if he keeps up his current level of play. A 5 year deal would essentially be all of his peak years, so that's probably the among the most expensive options, we might get a discount including 6th or more years.

Pageau just turned 27, so he has perhaps 8 years left to age 35. I would not offer him an 8 year contract, perhaps a 5 year contract at most for 4.5 M AAV. If he wants more than that, then trade him before the TDL.

 

[Samsquanch]

Pageau just turned 27, so he has perhaps 8 years left to age 35. I would not offer him an 8 year contract, perhaps a 5 year contract at most for 4.5 M AAV. If he wants more than that, then trade him before the TDL.

Agreed. I would definitely not go more than 4.5m AAV, and not more than 5 years at that price. If he wants 8yrs I would be looking at 3m AAV.

Otherwise we need to trade soon him while his value is ballooning like it it is.

 

[stempniaksen]

Since the Bozak comparison has been brought up a handful of times this thread it got me thinking that that would (personally) be my first offer to JGP if I were Dorion. There's a semi-direct comparable out there who signed the exact same deal, it keeps the term down on a guy who plays a "tough" style and could eventually break down and $5 million isn't anywhere near egregious for this team given all the cap sapce we'll have over the next few years.

I mean, I'm pretty sure Pageau is going to be looking for more security than that and will be angling for 5+ years, but I'd be more than happy "overpaying" him by ~$500k/year if it means keeping the term more reasonable. Flexibility is going to be key for this team moving forward, PD and company should be doing everything they can to keep the term low on all the "UFA-aged" players, imo.

 

[Caeldan]

Agreed. I would definitely not go more than 4.5m AAV, and not more than 5 years at that price. If he wants 8yrs I would be looking at 3m AAV.

Otherwise we need to trade soon him while his value is ballooning like it it is.

So you're saying he should take a paycut from his current contract, for an 8 year deal? That's not how it works.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

So you're saying he should take a paycut from his current contract, for an 8 year deal? That's not how it works.

I heard on NHL radio this morning that he would not garner more than a second.

Not sure if I believe that.

Given his long record and am convinced he stays with hometown discount a little above $4m

who knows with this organization though

 

[Samsquanch]

So you're saying he should take a paycut from his current contract, for an 8 year deal? That's not how it works.

If he wants 8 years of term, thats exactly how it works my friend. Aside from this hot start, Pageau has done little else to justify a big raise on his last contract in any of the other years. You could even argue that hes failed to live up to that contract until now.

Hes not going to get an 8 year term though. He and his agent will likely opt for the 4-5 year 4.5 AAV that keeps getting thrown around, and hope that he can earn another NHL contract after its up when hes 32-33yrs old.

BUT if he wanted long term security in the form of an 8 year deal, thats exactly the price that he would be looking at, give or take a few hundred K.

 

[TheDebater]

Excited?

Pointing out simple facts is excited?

Boro has been slightly better this year. He's gone from terrible and a total liability to only occasionally being a liability. Congrats?

It was a simple comment that Boro has been much better this year and has played well in most games...and it is the truth, why is that upsetting you?

 

[stempniaksen]

If he wants 8 years of term, thats exactly how it works my friend. Aside from this hot start, Pageau has done little else to justify a big raise on his last contract in any of the other years. You could even argue that hes failed to live up to that contract until now.

Hes not going to get an 8 year term though. He and his agent will likely opt for the 4-5 year 4.5 AAV that keeps getting thrown around, and hope that he can earn another NHL contract after its up when hes 32-33yrs old.

BUT if he wanted long term security in the form of an 8 year deal, thats exactly the price that he would be looking at, give or take a few hundred K.

I think the onus is on you to back up this claim. I'm having a hard time thinking of a player who signed via free agency (except extenuating circumstances like injuries) who ended up taking a paycut on their current salary. If your stance is that YOU wouldn't pay him that much it's a reasonable take. I don't think I'd entertain an 8 year contract under any circumstance and I have a hard time seeing the organization go that route either. But that's a far cry from "that's exactly how it works".

 

[Samsquanch]

I think the onus is on you to back up this claim. I'm having a hard time thinking of a player who signed via free agency (except extenuating circumstances like injuries) who ended up taking a paycut on their current salary. If your stance is that YOU wouldn't pay him that much it's a reasonable take. I don't think I'd entertain an 8 year contract under any circumstance and I have a hard time seeing the organization go that route either. But that's a far cry from "that's exactly how it works".

I definitely dont care to research it, because its after 4:30 now and work is done .

But its really not hard to do the quick math and see that JG would be smart to take 8yrs x 3.2 (25.6m) over 4 or 5yrs x 4.5 (18m - 22.5m) .

ESPECIALLY when you consider that the league is trending younger and younger, and that will only likely get worse for older players as time goes on. Earning anything beyond the league minimum is going to be VERY hard for a 32 yr old bottom 6 player. How much can he realistically expect to make between age 32-36 in the NHL on a new contract?

You can say its unconventional or whatever to take less on the UFA contract, sure. But if Im this mans agent and the Sens offer him 8 x 3.2, a contract that guarantees him a very nice income until hes 36 yrs old, you had better believe that Im going to ask him to look long and hard at it before turning that offer down.

That might not be proof, but it sure as hell is logical.

 

[stempniaksen]

I definitely dont care to research it, because its after 4:30 now and work is done .

But its really not hard to do the quick math and see that JG would be smart to take 8yrs x 3.2 (25.6m) over 4 or 5yrs x 4.5 (18m - 22.5m) .

ESPECIALLY when you consider that the league is trending younger and younger, and that will only likely get worse for older players as time goes on. Earning anything beyond the league minimum is going to be VERY hard for a 32 yr old bottom 6 player. How much can he realistically expect to make between age 32-36 in the NHL on a new contract?

You can say its unconventional or whatever, sure. But if Im this mans agent and the Sens offer him 8 x 3.2, a contract that guarantees him a very nice income until hes 36 yrs old, you had better believe Im going to ask him to look long and hard at it.

That might not be proof, but it sure as hell is logical.

I think the bold is pretty off-base, so I get why we don't see eye to eye on this.

If the cap booms with the new TV deal and expansion we could be looking at $1+ million as the minimum, so even if he does fall off an cliff and become a minimum guy he could ultimately end up making more by cashing in early and taking the "risk".

There's (as far as I can tell) zero historical comparisons of guys hitting FA (after having one their better seasons) and taking less than their QO would have been. You can call it "logic" if you want, but if no one in the history of the league has done it I personally like my chances of being right on this over yours.

 

[Samsquanch]

I think the bold is pretty off-base, so I get why we don't see eye to eye on this.

If the cap booms with the new TV deal and expansion we could be looking at $1+ million as the minimum, so even if he does fall off an cliff and become a minimum guy he could ultimately end up making more by cashing in early and taking the "risk".

Your right, we will have to agree to disagree. Im glad you arent my agent, thats for sure.

Asking a 32/33 year old bottom 6 player to bank on himself making another 3.1 to 7.6 million in the NHL from age 32/33 to retirement (and thats just to offset the money from the 8 year contract that you turned down) is incredibly, uh, dumb. Sorry.

 

[Caeldan]

Your right, we will have to agree to disagree. Im glad you arent my agent, thats for sure.

Asking a 32/33 year old bottom 6 player to bank on himself making another 3.1 to 7.6 million in the NHL from age 32/33 to retirement (and thats just to offset the money from the 8 year contract that you turned down) is incredibly, uh, dumb. Sorry.

All he would need is one season at 3.1M to make up for that difference. Which if he's coming off a 4.5M deal is likely very possible outside of something that you don't plan for like a career ending injury.

So long as he keeps his head on his shoulders, he'll be an effective PK and matchup centre well into his thirties. Perhaps he will lose a step and not get so many shorthanded breakaways but he'll still be able to keep the puck away from the net.

So no, he's not taking a paycut for 3 years of job security.

And while the league might be trending younger, both owners and the PA will look at ways at keeping those young contracts in check because the older players are the ones voting on the CBA and unions protect their existing members, not future ones.

 

[Sweatred]

I definitely dont care to research it, because its after 4:30 now and work is done .

But its really not hard to do the quick math and see that JG would be smart to take 8yrs x 3.2 (25.6m) over 4 or 5yrs x 4.5 (18m - 22.5m) .

ESPECIALLY when you consider that the league is trending younger and younger, and that will only likely get worse for older players as time goes on. Earning anything beyond the league minimum is going to be VERY hard for a 32 yr old bottom 6 player. How much can he realistically expect to make between age 32-36 in the NHL on a new contract?

You can say its unconventional or whatever to take less on the UFA contract, sure. But if Im this mans agent and the Sens offer him 8 x 3.2, a contract that guarantees him a very nice income until hes 36 yrs old, you had better believe that Im going to ask him to look long and hard at it before turning that offer down.

That might not be proof, but it sure as hell is logical.

Na.. he pushes for $5x5 = $25+ vs your 8 year deal and gets to resign at 32, quit playing a viscous game 3 years early, coach his kids, find a part time job, sit on the beach or whatever he wants to do with the $45+ million me has made.

 

[Samsquanch]

All he would need is one season at 3.1M to make up for that difference. Which if he's coming off a 4.5M deal is likely very possible outside of something that you don't plan for like a career ending injury.

So long as he keeps his head on his shoulders, he'll be an effective PK and matchup centre well into his thirties. Perhaps he will lose a step and not get so many shorthanded breakaways but he'll still be able to keep the puck away from the net.

So no, he's not taking a paycut for 3 years of job security.

And while the league might be trending younger, both owners and the PA will look at ways at keeping those young contracts in check because the older players are the ones voting on the CBA and unions protect their existing members, not future ones.

Wow, so your saying hes going to sign for 3.1m at age 32???

Come on folks, that's absolutely crazy talk.

 

[topshelf15]

Love JGP but by the time we are ready to compete he will be 30 ,moving him seems like the sensible option here...

 

[Hale The Villain]

Love JGP but by the time we are ready to compete he will be 30 ,moving him seems like the sensible option here...

That's another thing to consider.

Let's face it, this team is likely another 2-3YRs away from making the post season, and probably 4-5YRs away from potentially contending (assuming the rebuild goes smoothly).

By that time who knows if Pageau will be at the same level as he is now.

 

[TheDebater]

Love JGP but by the time we are ready to compete he will be 30 ,moving him seems like the sensible option here...

That's another thing to consider.

Let's face it, this team is likely another 2-3YRs away from making the post season, and probably 4-5YRs away from potentially contending (assuming the rebuild goes smoothly).

By that time who knows if Pageau will be at the same level as he is now.

Does a contending team not need veterans with playoff experience? 30-32 is definitely not old for a player who by that time should be one of the best two-way players in the NHL. Why spend future assets in 3 years to acquire veteran help at the deadline when we can simply sign one now and let him grow with the young guys.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Wow, so your saying hes going to sign for 3.1m at age 32???

Come on folks, that's absolutely crazy talk.

Why? Nothing you've said is really supported by anything. 3.1M in 5 years from now will likely be around 3% of the cap. That's nothing to sign veteran bottom 6 talent, especially if he's doing one year deals. We gave Hainsey 3.5M, he's washed up and way older. Val Filpula signed 2 years 6M this offseason at 35.

 

[stempniaksen]

Your right, we will have to agree to disagree. Im glad you arent my agent, thats for sure.

Asking a 32/33 year old bottom 6 player to bank on himself making another 3.1 to 7.6 million in the NHL from age 32/33 to retirement (and thats just to offset the money from the 8 year contract that you turned down) is incredibly, uh, dumb. Sorry.

Ditto, dude.

I'm really not sure what's so egregious about saying he could recoup ~$5 million from the time he's 32 until the time he retires. You're acting like anyone over the age of 30 is washed when there's plenty of examples of bottom-six/bottom-four getting paid in recent history.

The league isn't moving towards youth so fast that 32 year old veteran leader, more than capable PKers won't be able to find a job. That's just silly talk. I really don't think history will be kind to your projections.

 

[Larionov]

Btw, how is it that the Devils are so bad? They have two recent #1 overall picks playing for them, and according to Team Tank all we need is one of those to set ourselves up for greatness. (As an aside, in the year Hirschier was drafted Elias Pettersson went fifth - which one would you rather have now?)

 

[BondraTime]

Btw, how is it that the Devils are so bad? They have two recent #1 overall picks playing for them, and according to Team Tank all we need is one of those to set ourselves up for greatness. (As an aside, in the year Hirschier was drafted Elias Pettersson went fifth - which one would you rather have now?)

Vancouver only got Petterson because they tanked, they came 2nd last.

Or Heiskanen at 3, or Makar at 4. 3 of the top 5 are star/franchise level players. I don't think any of the teams are mad they tanked, aside from Philly who made a very bad pick, and that was lotto luck. Colorado aren't too mad they tanked and got Makar, Likewise with Vancouver or Dallas. Ending up 3rd or 4th last and getting Lias Anderson and Caasy Middlestadt hurts, they both wish they finished lower to get one of the stars and high potential guys drafted 1-6.

 

[Larionov]

Hainsey got incredibly lucky though - we needed to sign an FA to ensure that we reached the floor, and he has a history with DJ.

 

[Samsquanch]

Ditto, dude.

I'm really not sure what's so egregious about saying he could recoup ~$5 million from the time he's 32 until the time he retires. You're acting like anyone over the age of 30 is washed when there's plenty of examples of bottom-six/bottom-four getting paid in recent history.

The league isn't moving towards youth so fast that 32 year old veteran leader, more than capable PKers won't be able to find a job. That's just silly talk. I really don't think history will be kind to your projections.

Its like you guys are completely glossing over the fact that unlike other sports like the NFL, the NHL contracts are completely GUARANTEED - thats so friggin huge in this decision making process.

In the world of sports where absolutely nothing is guaranteed, and your playing career can literally be ended on any day by a fluke accident (like JG blowing his achilles out on the high boxes in training camp), players absolutely do give up AVV for longer term.

Ask yourself how many prime UFAs sign short term with high AVV banking on themselves later on (when they also had a long term deal on the table that was fair)? Who is the last one?

The answer is not friggin many, like zero as far as I can recall in the modern CBA. No responsible agent will let them pass up a long term contract if its on the table (and the numbers check out like my proposed ones do).

No bottom 6 player in their right mind gives up guaranteed money that takes them up to age 35 when the difference is more or less negligible - you guys are basically arguing with me that it comes out as close to a wash anyways. At very best it sounds like an insignificant gain, so howagain is that a compelling argument for him to roll the dice like that (because its literally that - a major gamble for real life millions).

If the Sens offered Pageau an 8 year contract north of 3m per year (which they will not), he would take that deal in a microsecond. I guess you guys dont appreciate the human side of things either, and how enticing it would be to have full control of your own fate for the next 8 years after living the tumultuous and transient lifestyle of a young pro athlete.

Ive said my point and I know you guys dont agree, so Im over it. For me this one comes down to some pretty simple math and a little bit of risk assessment, and I dont see how you guys can end up so far off base...

For a such fiscally responsible town like Ottawa, Im not getting that vibe in here at all....

 

[Samsquanch]

Why? Nothing you've said is really supported by anything. 3.1M in 5 years from now will likely be around 3% of the cap. That's nothing to sign veteran bottom 6 talent, especially if he's doing one year deals. We gave Hainsey 3.5M, he's washed up and way older. Val Filpula signed 2 years 6M this offseason at 35.

Ive already touched on this in my post above, but how about you show me a prime time UFA (aka not 35 yr old Filpula or Hainsey) that banked on themselves with a short term/inflated AAV contract - instead of signing the fair, long term and GUARANTEED contract that was also on the table for them.

Where are all of the two year max /near max deals for those elite level players that are uber confident in their ability to get paid big again? Please no outliers like the Russians who are coming over and looking for the hit and run contracts either, that hardly counts.

In reality we dont even see star players taking these kind of unnecessary risks. Think about that. They just dont do it if they have other options, there is too much real money at risk. Willingly gambling on a deal that can potentially set up your kids and their kids financially for life is not something many good men would be able to do very easily.

So at least to me, it seems like it would be even more foolish for a career bottom 6 guy (with limited scoring abilities and therefore a higher chance to bust as time goes on) to take this same risk, given the choice. The key words to focus on there are "given the choice".

You guys keep saying the onus is on me to prove my theory, and I say that the proof is everywhere and we see it every time a prime UFA signs a contract. In the NHL under the current CBA, you take the guaranteed money all day everyday. This isnt the NBA where you can coast your way into your mid 30s easily and always bank on yourself getting another huge payday (because of the minimal wear and tear by comparison to an actual contact sport, and "load management" among other things lol).

Admittedly this situation is a little unique because JG is a pretty unique bottom 6 guy, and hes coming off a contract that he didnt technically live up to in some ways as of right now, so a pay cut would be necessary on something that would take him into his mid 30s.

And I feel like thats what you guys are hung up on for whatever reason, the paycut. In the new NHL where the RFAs are getting paid, and as long as the contracts are still guaranteed. its going to become less and less odd for an RFA to take a pay cut in exchange for longer term on their UFA contract, no doubt.