GDT: Game 18 | Senators @ Devils | Who's Bad? Edition | Wed Nov. 13th, 7:00PM | SN360, TVAS

[Samsquanch]

Boro's advanced stats from last night's game suggest that some people are only seeing what they want to see.

38.46 CF% -23.61 CF% rel

Lmao. Or maybe, just maybe, advanced stats arent the greatest tool for judging someone's individuals performance in ONE GAME. Lol.......I swear to god people.

 

[Samsquanch]

5M is third C money these days.

Theres just no way you're getting an all around proven playoff player like Pageau for 4M unless you're going 7 years with bonus structure.

Hes got 16pts in 35gp in the playoffs, so hes proven exactly what everyone already knew, that hes an above average 3rd line center. One big 4 goal game in the playoffs against the Habs doesnt turn you into a Claude Lemiuex clone...

What other 3rd line centers are making 5m per year long term (real 3rd line centers - not guys forced down due to being on a super deep team)? Am I missing something here? Thats a luxury that most teams cannot afford the cap space on......

 

[aragorn]

Maybe NJ would be interested in acquiring Anderson before the trade deadline, they could use an upgrade in net in a bad way.

 

[Sensfan4life]

Lmao. Or maybe, just maybe, advanced stats arent the greatest tool for judging someone's individuals performance in ONE GAME. Lol.......I swear to god people.

Please find me single season where Boro has posted 50 or above.

It's not one game.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Please find me single season where Boro has posted 50 or above.

It's not one game.

I think people are saying he is playing better. No need to get excited.

 

[Samsquanch]

Please find me single season where Boro has posted 50 or above.

It's not one game.

And I dont think anyone will disagree with you that Boro has been utterly terrible in the past for us at times.

He has been very good this year though, unquestionably. Your advanced stats are letting you down big time if you cant open your eyes and see that for yourself. Truly. I dont need any kind of statistical data to back up my opinion that Boro has been very good this year. I know this because I understand hockey better than you will ever understand those numbers that your trying to stand behind.

Try and convince any analyst that has watched the Sens closely this year that Boro has been as bad as you are suggesting he has been. You will be laughed and scoffed at for not really watching the games, and still trying to make a legitimate point (one that is a bit of a hot take based on whats actually happening in reality).

 

[Sensfan4life]

I think people are saying he is playing better. No need to get excited.

Excited?

Pointing out simple facts is excited?

Boro has been slightly better this year. He's gone from terrible and a total liability to only occasionally being a liability. Congrats?

 

[Micklebot]

5M is third C money these days.

Theres just no way you're getting an all around proven playoff player like Pageau for 4M unless you're going 7 years with bonus structure.

5 mil will be about 6% of the cap for next year. It's worth noting that there are no teams where the 7th highest paid forward has a 5+ mil cap hit. It's also worth noting that playing on the 3rd line doesn't mean 7th best or most valuable forward on the team.

idk, Pageau will be an interesting case if he gets to UFA. He has universal appeal because of his all round game, but no significant history of offensive production, and it's that offensive potential that gets you the big money.

 

[Samsquanch]

It is an honour to share the board with someone who possesses your intimate understanding of the game.

We are all truly blessed by your presence here.

First tip for you (this one is free because your clearly new) - advanced stats are useless when you use them in a 1 game sample size. Not only is the data useless, but when you try to convince educated hockey fans that the data is valid, you lose all your credibility in the argument because you evidently dont even understand the nature of stats and trends.

Cherry picking advanced stats (from one game lol) is the most disingenuous form of discussing hockey players that there is. And you will be called out on it - every time.

 

[Sensfan4life]

First tip for you (this one is free) - advanced stats are useless when you use them in a 1 game sample size. Not only is the data useless, but when you try to convince educated hockey fans that the data is valid, you lose all your credibility in the argument because you evidently dont even understand the nature of stats and trends.

Cherry picking advanced stats (from one game lol) is the most disingenuous form of discussing hockey players that there is. And you will be called out on it - every time.

The one game sample size is backed up by a whole career of similar evidence.

Corsi simply measures game events and as per usual, Boro performed poorly.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Hes got 16pts in 35gp in the playoffs, so hes proven exactly what everyone already knew, that hes an above average 3rd line center. One big 4 goal game in the playoffs against the Habs doesnt turn you into a Claude Lemiuex clone...

What other 3rd line centers are making 5m per year long term (real 3rd line centers - not guys forced down due to being on a super deep team)? Am I missing something here? Thats a luxury that most teams cannot afford the cap space on......

He's got 2 playoff hat tricks.

Kerfoot just signed a 4 year deal at 3.5M
Jay Beagle (4th line C) 4 year 3M (2018)
Tyler Bozak 3 year 5M (2018)
Derek Ryan 3.125 3 years (2018)
Boone Jenner 3.75 4 years (2018)
Backlund 5.35 6 years (Feb 2018)
Lars Eller 3.5 5 years (2018)
Hanzal 4.75 3 years (2017)
Nick Bonino 4.1 4 years (2017)
Darren Helm 3.85 5 years (2016)
Marcus Kruger 3.1 3.years (2016)

 

[jhutter]

I'm thinking that 4 x 4 is a fair deal for both sides. Please don't trade him for a ~25th overall pick.

 

[Samsquanch]

He's got 2 playoff hat tricks.

Kerfoot just signed a 4 year deal at 3.5M
Jay Beagle (4th line C) 4 year 3M (2018)
Tyler Bozak 3 year 5M (2018)
Derek Ryan 3.125 3 years (2018)
Boone Jenner 3.75 4 years (2018)
Backlund 5.35 6 years (Feb 2018)
Lars Eller 3.5 5 years (2018)
Hanzal 4.75 3 years (2017)
Nick Bonino 4.1 4 years (2017)
Darren Helm 3.85 5 years (2016)
Marcus Kruger 3.1 3.years (2016)

Hes got 2 playoff hat tricks, true I guess. Hes still only got 16pts in 35gp, so it doesnt change my point at all. Hes a 3rd line center, and his playoff production does not suggest that we should call him anything other than that. Hes still not Claude Lemiuex and he doesnt go from an everyday grinder into an All-star when the calendar turns to April.

But anyways, I dont see one 3rd line C on that list of yours that is making 5m/yr though, do you? Seems like the 3.5-4.5 Im saying is right in line with reality...5m/year is not 3rd line money, and I doubt it will be anytime soon either.....

Backlund is not and was not signed to be the Flames 3rd line C...Neither was Bozak. And both had far more impressive careers statistically than Pageau at the time they signed their UFA contracts.

What teams do you think are going to throw 5m/year at Pageua to be their 3rd line C?

 

[coladin]

I'm thinking that 4 x 4 is a fair deal for both sides. Please don't trade him for a ~25th overall pick.

I don't think that will do it. I am thinking 5 yr-23M.

I know people want to dump him, and I am not in the signing camp yet, stuck in between two minds. My point is this: if you dump Pageau, at his age and his level of play, this team will be in a perpetual rebuild forever. At some point, the organizatioon has to identify who they want here, and don't fall in love with acquiring picks all the time. It is looking like he fits here, long term, with Chabot and White. That would be three pieces out of 18 that have long term deals.

That leaves a lot of spots.

 

[swiftwin]

Excited?

Pointing out simple facts is excited?

Boro has been slightly better this year. He's gone from terrible and a total liability to only occasionally being a liability. Congrats?

Yes. Boro has been better this year. Why are you getting all bent out of shape over this?

 

[stempniaksen]

Hes got 2 playoff hat tricks, true I guess. Hes still only got 16pts in 35gp, so it doesnt change my point at all. Hes a 3rd line center, and his playoff production does not suggest that we should call him anything other than that. Hes still not Claude Lemiuex and he doesnt go from an everyday grinder into an All-star when the calendar turns to April.

But anyways, I dont see one 3rd line C on that list of yours that is making 5m/yr though, do you? Seems like the 3.5-4.5 Im saying is right in line with reality...5m/year is not 3rd line money, and I doubt it will be anytime soon either.....

Backlund is not and was not signed to be the Flames 3rd line C...Neither was Bozak. And both had far more impressive careers statistically than Pageau at the time they signed their UFA contracts.

What teams do you think are going to throw 5m/year at Pageua to be their 3rd line C?

Just for the sake of clarity:

Tyler Bozak was absolutely signed to be that teams 3rd line center. They already had ROR and Schenn in the fold who were more of less locked in to the top-six spots. Obviously he's an outlier, but it's worth mentioning since guys who reach UFA status tend to be the outliers (more often than not) because of the bidding wars that come with free market.

JGP has outscored everyone's career high on that list minus Backlund, Bozak, Bonino and Jenner. Jenner was an RFA at the time of his signing, so isn't as direct a comparable for JGP as the other three on this list. That kind of sets the "floor" of his future contract at $4.1 million/season )not the $3.5 you implied).

You're also not taking into account his current pace enough, imo. If he can go out there this season and put up ~45+ points as a top-six center teams looking at him this summer might not be viewing him as a " 3rd line center" but as someone who can come in and play all over the lineup and chip in "top-six" prodution as needed (if JGP prioritizes fit over going to a contender he could find himself in a permanent 2nd line role as well).

$5 million might end up being high, I'm not really debating that part of your post. I do think based on his (UFA) comparable and regular inflation that the price will be higher than you've implied you think it will be.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Hes got 2 playoff hat tricks, true I guess. Hes still only got 16pts in 35gp, so it doesnt change my point at all. Hes a 3rd line center, and his playoff production does not suggest that we should call him anything other than that. Hes still not Claude Lemiuex and he doesnt go from an everyday grinder into an All-star when the calendar turns to April.

But anyways, I dont see one 3rd line C on that list of yours that is making 5m/yr though, do you? Seems like the 3.5-4.5 Im saying is right in line with reality...5m/year is not 3rd line money, and I doubt it will be anytime soon either.....

Backlund is not and was not signed to be the Flames 3rd line C...Neither was Bozak. And both had far more impressive careers statistically than Pageau at the time they signed their UFA contracts.

What teams do you think are going to throw 5m/year at Pageua to be their 3rd line C?

That point per game pace is higher than his regular season by almost 5 points/82 games. That's a playoff performer. He gets better.

Bozak was and is the third line C behind Schenn and O'Rielly.

Pageau is better than almost all of those guys, thus he will be paid more. Their contracts are what he would be getting if he wasn't having this kind of season. His role is much closer to Backlund. He's not a 3rd line C on this team and he's performing far above that. He's not just a 3rd C, he's a matchup guy, faceoff ace and PK ace. Pageau is probably the 4th or 5th best forward on a really good team.

 

[Samsquanch]

Just for the sake of clarity:

Tyler Bozak was absolutely signed to be that teams 3rd line center. They already had ROR and Schenn in the fold who were more of less locked in to the top-six spots. Obviously he's an outlier, but it's worth mentioning since guys who reach UFA status tend to be the outliers (more often than not) because of the bidding wars that come with free market.

JGP has outscored everyone's career high on that list minus Backlund, Bozak, Bonino and Jenner. Jenner was an RFA at the time of his signing, so isn't as direct a comparable for JGP as the other three on this list. That kind of sets the "floor" of his future contract at $4.1 million/season )not the $3.5 you implied).

You're also not taking into account his current pace enough, imo. If he can go out there this season and put up ~45+ points as a top-six center teams looking at him this summer might not be viewing him as a " 3rd line center" but as someone who can come in and play all over the lineup and chip in "top-six" prodution as needed (if JGP prioritizes fit over going to a contender he could find himself in a permanent 2nd line role as well).

$5 million might end up being high, I'm not really debating that part of your post. I do think based on his (UFA) comparable and regular inflation that the price will be higher than you've implied you think it will be.

Schenn plays wing though and has for years, so Bozak was definitely signed for the role of their #2C, and hes been given the minutes and linemates of the #2C in his time there... So I wouldnt even call him an outlier, hes clearly a top 6 C on the Blues, and not a 3rd liner. Not too mention that hes played a bigger role than Pageau did for nearly every year leading up to him becoming a FA, so its fairly easy to argue for him being in a different tier of player altogether.

So when you take out Bozak and Backlund (who arent 3rd liners), there is no 5m/year 3rd liner on that list. And thats really my only point I guess; I dont see a scenario where any team in the league could afford to go north of 4.5m/year on a guy like Pageau. Even if he ends up with 50-60pts this year.

Edit: apparently Schenn is playing C, so I stand corrected on that.

 

[Caeldan]

Hes got 2 playoff hat tricks, true I guess. Hes still only got 16pts in 35gp, so it doesnt change my point at all. Hes a 3rd line center, and his playoff production does not suggest that we should call him anything other than that. Hes still not Claude Lemiuex and he doesnt go from an everyday grinder into an All-star when the calendar turns to April.

But anyways, I dont see one 3rd line C on that list of yours that is making 5m/yr though, do you? Seems like the 3.5-4.5 Im saying is right in line with reality...5m/year is not 3rd line money, and I doubt it will be anytime soon either.....

Backlund is not and was not signed to be the Flames 3rd line C...Neither was Bozak. And both had far more impressive careers statistically than Pageau at the time they signed their UFA contracts.

What teams do you think are going to throw 5m/year at Pageua to be their 3rd line C?

His salary now is 3.4, and cap hit at 3.1. So unless you're saying that he's a worse player than when he signed that contract, 4M is where you're starting the conversation given that 3.4 was as an RFA when he had no leverage. Even if he was an RFA his QO would need to be ~3.75.

Artem Anisimov and Nick Bonino probably look like comparable situations (and they both got over 5% of the cap in their signing year) if I'm stat watching and looking at what they signed for in their years, as I don't think either one of them ever got past a 2nd/3rd line tweener stage and I personally think Pageau has been a better player than either at similar ages.

 

[stempniaksen]

Schenn plays wing though and has for years, so Bozak was definitely signed for the role of their #2C, and hes been given the minutes and linemates of the #2C in his time there... So I wouldnt even call him an outlier, hes clearly a top 6 C on the Blues, and not a 3rd liner. Not too mention that hes played a bigger role than Pageau did for nearly every year leading up to him becoming a FA, so its fairly easy to argue for him being in a different tier of player altogether.

So when you take out Bozak and Backlund (who arent 3rd liners), there is no 5m/year 3rd liner on that list. And thats really my only point I guess; I dont see a scenario where any team in the league could afford to go north of 4.5m/year on a guy like Pageau. Even if he ends up with 50-60pts this year.

Schenn has primarily been a center in St-Louis. They traded for him to be their #1. What he did in Philly is (largely) irrelevant to this conversation. Bozak has never played in the top-six for any length of time outside of injuries and has never lined up on the 1st PP unit. That doesn't sound like someone who has been a "2C in his time there".

If Pageau puts up 60 points he'll have broken through his "3rd line center tops" moniker as well, so this arbitrary designation doesn't come into play in the least at that point. Someone will pay him as a legitimate 2nd line center. I mean Bozak never topped 55 playing with Phil Kessel and got $5 million, if JGP puts up ~60 playing with Connor Brown someone is gonna back up the brinks truck.

I mostly just think your discounting inflation though. Bonino is the closest comparable out there currently (imo) and he signed for $4.1/season two years ago. I don't have the time or intelligence to figure out what percentage of the cap that was and what JGP would be making in 2020-21 with that same percentage, but it's safe to say it's at least $4.5 million.

 

[Caeldan]

Schenn has primarily been a center in St-Louis. They traded for him to be their #1. What he did in Philly is (largely) irrelevant to this conversation. Bozak has never played in the top-six for any length of time outside of injuries and has never lined up on the 1st PP unit. That doesn't sound like someone who has been a "2C in his time there".

If Pageau puts up 60 points he'll have broken through his "3rd line center tops" moniker as well, so this arbitrary designation doesn't come into play in the least at that point. Someone will pay him as a legitimate 2nd line center. I mean Bozak never topped 55 playing with Phil Kessel and got $5 million, if JGP puts up ~60 playing with Connor Brown someone is gonna back up the brinks truck.

I mostly just think your discounting inflation though. Bonino is the closest comparable out there currently (imo) and he signed for $4.1/season two years ago. I don't have the time or intelligence to figure out what percentage of the cap that was and what JGP would be making in 2020-21 with that same percentage, but it's safe to say it's at least $4.5 million.

Capfriendly is your friend and Bonino signed for 5.47% of the cap, which if you assume at least an 84M cap next year will be 4.6M.

Basically in terms of real money, Pageau would be worth anywhere between 4.5-5.5M in real dollars because of off-ice marketing potential (local boy from Gatineau, potential C material) in addition to his on-ice skills. Plus we gave Colin White 4.75M for 6 years off of one good season. Pageau should be at least in the same ballpark as White.

 

[coladin]

Capfriendly is your friend and Bonino signed for 5.47% of the cap, which if you assume at least an 84M cap next year will be 4.6M.

Hey, that is exactly the number I had in my 5yr-23M proposal!

 

[Micklebot]

Schenn has primarily been a center in St-Louis. They traded for him to be their #1. What he did in Philly is (largely) irrelevant to this conversation. Bozak has never played in the top-six for any length of time outside of injuries and has never lined up on the 1st PP unit. That doesn't sound like someone who has been a "2C in his time there".

If Pageau puts up 60 points he'll have broken through his "3rd line center tops" moniker as well, so this arbitrary designation doesn't come into play in the least at that point. Someone will pay him as a legitimate 2nd line center. I mean Bozak never topped 55 playing with Phil Kessel and got $5 million, if JGP puts up ~60 playing with Connor Brown someone is gonna back up the brinks truck.

I mostly just think your discounting inflation though. Bonino is the closest comparable out there currently (imo) and he signed for $4.1/season two years ago. I don't have the time or intelligence to figure out what percentage of the cap that was and what JGP would be making in 2020-21 with that same percentage, but it's safe to say it's at least $4.5 million.

Cap was 75 mil in the 2017 season, so 4.1 would have been about 5.5% of the cap. If the cap for next year is say 83.5, 5.5% would be right in line with your estimate of 4.5 mil

Also, capfriendly actually lists the % of cap at the time of signing on the player pages.

edit: oops @Caeldan beat me to it...

 

[Samsquanch]

I suppose Im just against the idea thats been said in here a few times that 5m/year is 3rd line money. Thats just not true imo.

And if Pageau falls off a cliff (or more accurately - comes back down to earth) and finishes the year around his normal 30-40pts, all this talk of contracts north of 4.5m/year are going to evaporate pretty quickly. Before this season started, he was absolutely not worth that kind of money. Not even close tbh.

So I feel like people are basing too much of his perceived value on this hot start of his, when in reality most teams will likely take whatever happens this year with a huge grain of salt.

The only way Pageau gets anything more than 4.5m/year is if he soundly breaks the 50pt barrier this season, imo. Bozak averaged over 50pts for several seasons, and the only team willing to pay him that kind of money to be a 3rd C was a team that was in a unique situation in that they were not already paying top tier dollars for their other two top 6 centers.

Not many other teams have that same luxury.

 

[stempniaksen]

I suppose Im just against the idea thats been said in here a few times that 5m/year is 3rd line money. Thats just not true imo.

And if Pageau falls off a cliff (or more accurately - comes back down to earth) and finishes the year around his normal 30-40pts, all this talk of contracts north of 4.5m/year are going to evaporate pretty quickly. Before this season started, he was absolutely not worth that kind of money. Not even close tbh.

So I feel like people are basing too much of his perceived value on this hot start of his, when in reality most teams will likely take whatever happens this year with a huge grain of salt.

The only way Pageau gets anything more than 4.5m/year is if he soundly breaks the 50pt barrier this season, imo. Bozak averaged over 50pts for several seasons, and the only team willing to pay him that kind of money to be a 3rd C was a team that was in a unique situation in that they were not already paying top tier dollars for their other two top 6 centers.

Not many other teams have that same luxury.

To the bolded, you're right that $5 million/season isn't high end 3rd line money yet, but with inflation it's pretty clearly going to be a reality in the next few years. The new US TV deal coupled with Seattle expansion should lead to a bit of a cap boom and ~$5 million will be "the new normal". Depending on the term in JGP's next deal he could be in line to be one of the first guys to breach that number (just like Bozak was THE first guy to do it).

I also don't think teams will take this season (if JGP performs well and puts up 45+ points) with a "huge grain of salt". The guy still has a track record of being one of the better defensive/shutdown centers in the league, a guy who steps it up in the playoffs (you don't need to be Claude Lemieux to improve markedly in the post-season) and someone who has paced at 30+ points his entire career, with a couple 40+ point seasons in there (I'm projecting out for this year with one of those, admittedly).

Also, just because I'm a stickler for this stuff, Bozak only topped 50 points once. He paced at it a handful of other times, but if we're looking at the raw numbers Pageau could be entering his UFA season with as many 50 point seasons as Bozak when he got his payday.

There's obviously lots at play and Pageau may very well come in below that number if he takes a hometown discount or signs with a contender or get some insane term that bring the AAV down. I just don't think you should be speaking in such absolutes about him not getting that number when his most direct comparables put him in the ~$4.5/$5 million range.

Free agency is called silly season for a reason, we see guys get overpaid every single off-season. With a pretty weak group of centers, JGP is a prime position (imo) to cash in if that's what he prioritizes. The other centers in this group as of now are: Nick Backstrom, Mikael Granlund (more of a winger now, but I'll list him anyways), Charlie Coyle, Mikko Koivu, Carl Soderberg, Cody Eakin, Erik Haula, Joe Thornton....I mean, there's a world where Pageau is the 2nd most sought after FA center this off-season (or even 1st if Backstrom and Koivu re-sign as expected). I wouldn't be surprised if we see 2-3 more "3rd line centers" get Bozak money this off-season in all honesty.