GDT: Game 18 | Senators @ Devils | Who's Bad? Edition | Wed Nov. 13th, 7:00PM | SN360, TVAS

[stempniaksen]

No bottom 6 player in their right mind gives up guaranteed money that takes them up to age 35 when the difference is more or less negligible - you guys are basically arguing with me that it comes out as close to a wash anyways. At very best it sounds like an insignificant gain, so howagain is that a compelling argument for him to roll the dice like that (because its literally that - a major gamble for real life millions).

In your hypothetical scenario (which seems stupid to argue about since we can all agree JGP aint getting an 8 year offer from the Sens, but here we are) you were talking about $3.2 X 8 vs what he could get based on his comps (4.5-$5 million, let's split the difference and say $4.75). I'm not sure how $1.55 million/year can be called "negligible".

I'm also not arguing it's a wash, I'm arguing that JGP can come out ahead (by a good chunk) if he takes the money now and signs another deal when he's 31/32 (and far from washed up).

$3.2 X 8 = $25.6 million

$4.75 X 5 = $23.75 million

JGP would only need to make an additional $2 million over the course of the rest of his career to come out ahead. God forbid he can sign for $5 million or more per year and all he has to do is play one more year at the minimum and he's coming out ahead. If the difference was "negligible" you'd be making a good point, but there's nothing negligible about $1.55-$2.05 million X 5, imo.

EDIT: You also mention no UFA turning down a "fair" offer like you're the arbiter of what is fair value is, but I also don't see what's "fair" about giving someone a 100k raise after putting up a top-two offensive season, and likely a career high in goals.

TL;DR There's some merit to your overall point about security and guaranteed money, but you're not taking into account that there's a significant gap in money earned over the next 5 years and the fact that Pageau SHOULD (no guarantees obviously) be able to re-coup more than the difference after his shorter contract runs out.

 

[Samsquanch]

In your hypothetical scenario (which seems stupid to argue about since we can all agree JGP aint getting an 8 year offer from the Sens, but here we are) .

Exactly. This is exactly my point.

There is basically no chance that the Sens offer an 8 year contract north of 3m to a player like Pageau, but its an interesting thought. Bottom 6 players dont typically ever get 8 year deals that take them into their mid 30s - they are replaceable with younger legs from within. Its the way of the cap, and its the team that is inheriting most the risk for a player that only will only decline at that point in their career.

But hypothetically, if they did offer him an 8 year contract, Pager would accept it in a heart beat while sporting a shit eating grin from ear to ear - and thats because players like Pager dont get 8 year deals offered to them. That kind of long term confidence and security from a team isnt a luxury granted to most players.

So in all likelihood he will in fact sign the 4 or 5 year deal people are proposing. But that is almost certainly not because he turned down an 8 year deal in favour of the shorter term option.

FTR I agree its a silly argument, but people chose to take some MAJOR exception to the rough numbers I proposed on a hypothetical deal. So as you said, here we are....

 

[stempniaksen]

Exactly. This is exactly my point.

There is basically no chance that the Sens offer an 8 year contract north of 3m to a player like Pageau, but its an interesting thought. Bottom 6 players dont typically ever get 8 year deals that take them into their mid 30s - they are replaceable with younger legs from within. Its the way of the cap.

But hypothetically, if they did offer him an 8 year contract, Pager would accept it in a heart beat while sporting a **** eating grin from ear to ear - and thats because players like Pager dont get 8 year deals offered to them. That kind of long term confidence and security from a team isnt a luxury granted to most players.

So in all likelihood he will in fact sign the 4 or 5 year deal people are proposing. But that is almost certainly not because he turned down an 8 year deal in favour of the shorter term option.

FTR I agree its a silly argument, but people chose to take some MAJOR exception to the rough numbers I proposed on a hypothetical deal. So as you said, here we are....

Colton Sissons is really the only example we have that's even remotely close and even that's not great for a variety of reasons (younger, RFA, less proven, less production). I mean, I think it would take more than $300k/year more to sign Pageau given all the factors in his favour, but we obviously don't see eye to eye on that one.

We can agree that an 8 year offer isn't coming from the Sens and agree to disagree on the validity of a 5 year vs 8 year deal. Not sure how many more words need to be wasted on the minutia of a hypothetical deal

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Love JGP but by the time we are ready to compete he will be 30 ,moving him seems like the sensible option here...

Mark Stone would be the same age but that doesn't mean I wouldn't have done anything possible to keep him.

Some players you keep for more than just skill.. Pageau is one of them (cost permitting).

The only way he should be traded is if he has unreasonable salary expectations and/or we're made an offer we just can't refuse.

 

[Sensfan4life]

I think people are saying he is playing better. No need to get excited.

Yes. Boro has been better this year. Why are you getting all bent out of shape over this?

It was a simple comment that Boro has been much better this year and has played well in most games...and it is the truth, why is that upsetting you?

Interesting that you came to the same conclusion.

Please point out what part of these posts struck you as me being excited, upset or bent out of shape.

Please find me single season where Boro has posted 50 or above.
It's not one game.

Excited?
Pointing out simple facts is excited?
Boro has been slightly better this year. He's gone from terrible and a total liability to only occasionally being a liability. Congrats?

The one game sample size is backed up by a whole career of similar evidence.
Corsi simply measures game events and as per usual, Boro performed poorly.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Interesting that you came to the same conclusion.

Please point out what part of these posts struck you as me being excited, upset or bent out of shape.

By still talking about it the next day?

Maybe I am totally wrong here, but I think your hate for Boro is based on his embarrassing interview with EM, not by his stats. You seem to focus on EM mainly which leads me to believe this.

I like player that give it all. It is good for the young players to have leaders that are hard working.

Is he amazing? No. Is he getting better, yes.

 

[Sensfan4life]

By still talking about it the next day?

Maybe I am totally wrong here, but I think your hate for Boro is based on his embarrassing interview with EM, not by his stats. You seem to focus on EM mainly which leads me to believe this.

I like player that give it all. It is good for the young players to have leaders that are hard working.

Is he amazing? No. Is he getting better, yes.

So you projected your biases onto my posts and then made assumptions about my posts based on zero evidence in the posts. It's very weird that two other posters made exactly the same error.

And I'm not talking about Boro the next day, I'm talking about a strange posting pattern from three separate accounts.

 

[Micklebot]

Since nobody is talking about the game anymore, this thread has run it's course...