GDT: Game 13: Sharks vs. Oilers 7:30pm ESPN+ and Hulu only

[Hodge]

Early returns on Timo's new contract don't look great either. Devils might end up regretting that trade. There are only a small handful of wingers in the league worth spending that much for, both in terms of acquisition cost and the contract itself, and Timo has never been one of them.

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[timorous me]

I know people hate quantity for quality trades on this board but it seems like we got 2 young solid NHL players in Zetterlund and Okhotiuk. A very good prospect in Muk. A first in a loaded draft that turned into Musty. And either a first or second round pick in this years draft. That could be a fantastic trade for us...

Especially considering the few options Grier had on the table with Timo, I haven't ever really minded this, and Zetterlund now playing like the guy I remember watching for Jersey, and Okhotiuk being maybe better than I thought he was (he looks like a potentially cromulent 3rd pair + PK guy, which isn't world-beater territory but it's still of value), and getting a pick in Musty that I'm absolutely thrilled about (to me basically mid-1st value with a late-1st pick)...well, that's a really nice combination, and I think the centerpiece is going to be a good 2nd pairing guy, if not better.

Something interesting that crossed my mind the other day is with the Burns trade, how differently we might have felt about it had it been for Duclair instead of Lorentz. Duclair is starting to pick up his game finally and he's a fun player to watch with some real ability. Whether we re-sign him or trade him at the deadline, getting him for Lorentz was basically an upgrade to the quality of the Burns return, only a year later.

 

[TheBeard]

Especially considering the few options Grier had on the table with Timo, I haven't ever really minded this, and Zetterlund now playing like the guy I remember watching for Jersey, and Okhotiuk being maybe better than I thought he was (he looks like a potentially cromulent 3rd pair + PK guy, which isn't world-beater territory but it's still of value), and getting a pick in Musty that I'm absolutely thrilled about (to me basically mid-1st value with a late-1st pick)...well, that's a really nice combination, and I think the centerpiece is going to be a good 2nd pairing guy, if not better.

Something interesting that crossed my mind the other day is with the Burns trade, how differently we might have felt about it had it been for Duclair instead of Lorentz. Duclair is starting to pick up his game finally and he's a fun player to watch with some real ability. Whether we re-sign him or trade him at the deadline, getting him for Lorentz was basically an upgrade to the quality of the Burns return, only a year later.

Yeah but if we had Duclair instead of Lorentz then we wouldn’t have had Lorentz to trade for Duclair.

 

[Pavelski2112]

It shouldn't be lost on us that in these two wins we've been outshot by 43, more than a minus 20 shot differential a night

We really haven't improved our play, we've just played two basement teams and gotten .962 goaltending, all the problems are still staring us in the face

I do like some of the roster changes (top line Eklund, Addison addition, Okhotiuk looking great), but we're not playing any better, we've just had our luck turn a bit, I fully expect the losing to resume soon

I do think they've been playing harder. They look more engaged and are winning more battles. That alone makes a difference.

 

[hohosaregood]

I do think they've been playing harder. They look more engaged and are winning more battles. That alone makes a difference.

As long as they're not giving up structure and chasing puck carriers out of position, it's all good for me. The Vancouver, Pittsburgh, and Florida games were uniquely unprofessional calibers of bad hockey.

 

[weastern bias]

I do think they've been playing harder. They look more engaged and are winning more battles. That alone makes a difference.

We've improved our effort, yes, but we are still at such a talent deficit that it hasn't improved our quality of play basically at all

It's like the South Park episode where the peewee hockey players are going against the Detroit Red Wings, I'm sure those kids were working really hard too

 

[Pavelski2112]

We've improved our effort, yes, but we are still at such a talent deficit that it hasn't improved our quality of play basically at all

It's like the South Park episode where the peewee hockey players are going against the Detroit Red Wings, I'm sure those kids were working really hard too

Oh sure, it's just the difference between losing 10-1 and losing 3-2, and that latter effort will occasionally squeak out a win or two

 

[weastern bias]

Oh sure, it's just the difference between losing 10-1 and losing 3-2, and that latter effort will occasionally squeak out a win or two

I still say the biggest differences in the outcome were the quality of opponents (especially goaltending) and shooting luck

 

[drunksage]

Flames fan coming in peace. Thanks for giving me some late night entertainment and beating the Oilers! The Sharks players even gave some love to a Flames fan who was in attendance

Better you than that rando in the VGK hat behind the Sharks bench.

It shouldn't be lost on us that in these two wins we've been outshot by 43, more than a minus 20 shot differential a night

We really haven't improved our play, we've just played two basement teams and gotten .962 goaltending, all the problems are still staring us in the face

I do like some of the roster changes (top line Eklund, Addison addition, Okhotiuk looking great), but we're not playing any better, we've just had our luck turn a bit, I fully expect the losing to resume soon

Ohh, so your "." isn't broken!

 

[Pavelski2112]

I still say the biggest differences in the outcome were the quality of opponents (especially goaltending) and shooting luck

Pittsburgh isn't much better than Edmonton

 

[Alaskanice]

I still say the biggest differences in the outcome were the quality of opponents (especially goaltending) and shooting luck

Winning and scoring actually has an effect on players. Case in point, Luke Kunin. He’s been lousy this season, nothing he’s done has had any positive effect for this team. Last night, his hard work caused their passes to deflect, blocking shots and skating paths. It didn’t score any points but it did help in our win.
The only luck in scoring was the deflection to Hertl. The other 2 goals were a product of good passes.

 

[weastern bias]

Pittsburgh isn't much better than Edmonton

Their goaltending certainly is, which had an effect on our shooting percentages in those games

In the Penguins game we scored 2 goals on 26 shots, a 7.6% sh% for us, a 92.3% sv% for them

In the Oilers game we scored 3 goals on 18 shots, a 16.6% sh% for us, an 83.3% sv% for them

Our save percentages also had a wild swing in these two games, but if we shoot the same percentage in the Oilers game as we did in the Pens game we only score 1 goal, a 2-1 loss, it completely flips the outcome

 

[TheBeard]

We've improved our effort, yes, but we are still at such a talent deficit that it hasn't improved our quality of play basically at all

It's like the South Park episode where the peewee hockey players are going against the Detroit Red Wings, I'm sure those kids were working really hard too

It's 100% improved out quality of play, what are you talking about? We've literally just won two games after giving up 20 goals in 2 games. We're obviously a talent-devoid team, but even the worst teams in the NHL can be competitive against the best if they put in the effort.

 

[weastern bias]

Winning and scoring actually has an effect on players. Case in point, Luke Kunin. He’s been lousy this season, nothing he’s done has had any positive effect for this team. Last night, his hard work caused their passes to deflect, blocking shots and skating paths. It didn’t score any points but it did help in our win.
The only luck in scoring was the deflection to Hertl. The other 2 goals were a product of good passes.

So one goal in a one goal win was pure luck, sounds like it determined the outcome

Of course human elements like confidence, hard work, engagement and investment translate to good outcomes, these are humans playing the game after all, but the long form trends that are reflected in these numbers capture these events, it simply removes our cognitive biases by smoothing them into cold figures, the numbers capture all events and quantify them

Every team deals with these intangible elements, yet over time these numeric trends are predictive for every team, over a long sample size like an 82 game season they tend to wash out

 

[weastern bias]

It's 100% improved out quality of play, what are you talking about? We've literally just won two games after giving up 20 goals in 2 games. We're obviously a talent-devoid team, but even the worst teams in the NHL can be competitive against the best if they put in the effort.

We had less shots on goal and more shots against in both wins than in either 10 goal loss

The outcomes were better, the quality of play was not, we got dominated by Philly and Edmonton, we just got lucky and won the games

 

[Alaskanice]

So one goal in a one goal win was pure luck, sounds like it determined the outcome

Of course human elements like confidence, hard work, engagement and investment translate to good outcomes, these are humans playing the game after all, but the long form trends that are reflected in these numbers capture these events, it simply removes our cognitive biases by smoothing them into cold figures, the numbers capture all events and quantify them

Every team deals with these intangible elements, yet over time these numeric trends are predictive for every team, over a long sample size like an 82 game season they tend to wash out

Using all of this, how does that explain the St.Louis Blues being in last place halfway through the season and going on to win the Stanley Cup? How does it explain the Boston Bruins having the absolute best regular season point wise and going out in the first round??
This is why they play the games.

 

[TheBeard]

We had less shots on goal and more shots against in both wins than in either 10 goal loss

The outcomes were better, the quality of play was not, we got dominated by Philly and Edmonton, we just got lucky and won the games

Well when you consider neither Pittsburgh nor Vancouver needed to be aggressive basically from the first period on, it's not surprising. We're always going to give up more shots to better teams in close contests.

 

[weastern bias]

Using all of this, how does that explain the St.Louis Blues being in last place halfway through the season and going on to win the Stanley Cup? How does it explain the Boston Bruins having the absolute best regular season point wise and going out in the first round??
This is why they play the games.

The Blues comeback season is the greatest statistical aberration in the history of the sport, all numeric plots have outliers, attempting to replicate those outliers is not reliable, hence why it has never happened before or since in a 30+ team league

St Louis as an organization has only won 1 playoff round in the 4 years since that cup, it was a fluke run that can't be purposefully replicated

As for the Bruins, 7 games is a small sample size, any team can choke in the playoffs, but an 82 game season is a much more stable model upon which to build predictive and sweeping claims

Everything I'm talking about is strictly relevant to regular season hockey, it just so happens that those are the only games of record the Sharks have played for the last 5 years, we can talk about the playoffs when they finally make it back there

 

[weastern bias]

Well when you consider neither Pittsburgh nor Vancouver needed to be aggressive basically from the first period on, it's not surprising. We're always going to give up more shots to better teams in close contests.

It's true that score effects played a part in our inflated shot totals

It's also true that we haven't outshot any opponent in any game this season, no matter how close the score has been

The two closest shot clocks were the Nashville game (4 goal loss) and the Vancouver game (9 goal loss) where we were only outshot by 2

This team simply doesn't have the talent to compete with just about any roster in the league, we're entirely dependent upon shooting luck to carry us against fellow cellar dwellers

 

[tahoesharksfan]

Tomas must have been pretty spent after that game, he's almost talking slow enough that I can understand him...

 

[Alaskanice]

The Blues comeback season is the greatest statistical aberration in the history of the sport, all numeric plots have outliers, attempting to replicate those outliers is not reliable, hence why it has never happened before or since in a 30+ team league

St Louis as an organization has only won 1 playoff round in the 4 years since that cup, it was a fluke run that can't be purposefully replicated

As for the Bruins, 7 games is a small sample size, any team can choke in the playoffs, but an 82 game season is a much more stable model upon which to build predictive and sweeping claims

Everything I'm talking about is strictly relevant to regular season hockey, it just so happens that those are the only games of record the Sharks have played for the last 5 years, we can talk about the playoffs when they finally make it back there

I’m hoping the Sharks turn this around, win the Stanley Cup this year and leave you muttering,” aberrations…statistics… shots.”

 

[weastern bias]

I’m hoping the Sharks turn this around, win the Stanley Cup this year and leave you muttering,” aberrations…statistics… shots.”

Yes, I, a lifelong fan, would be really upset if the Sharks won the cup, you really got me

 

[Alaskanice]

Yes, I, a lifelong fan, would be really upset if the Sharks won the cup, you really got me

Listen, I’m not a person who relies on such things. You don’t know this, I found my biological family after 50 years. Statistically, that wasn’t supposed to happen. The odds were against me. It has turned into the biggest revelation of my life.
If you want to spend your time with numbers and stats, be my guest. I’m simply going to enjoy the game.

 

[weastern bias]

Listen, I’m not a person who relies on such things. You don’t know this, I found my biological family after 50 years. Statistically, that wasn’t supposed to happen. The odds were against me. It has turned into the biggest revelation of my life.
If you want to spend your time with numbers and stats, be my guest. I’m simply going to enjoy the game.

I'm glad for you, that is a lovely and happy story and I'm glad it has enriched your life

It is also a discrete event that has absolutely nothing to do with the outcome of NHL games, so I won't be taking it into account when evaluating the 2024 San Jose Sharks