G Yaroslav Askarov (2020, 11th, NSH) - PART 2

[LeafChief]

Last thread was over 1000 posts.

Askarov seems to be struggling at the World Juniors which seems to have been the case in the last two tournaments as well. Decent KHL numbers but many have mentioned that his game hasn't improved much since he was drafted. Looks to have all of the tools. Hopefully he can put it all together.

Click to read more...

 

[LeafChief]

Looks like Russia went with their other tendy tonight vs SUI.

 

[Fantomas]

Russia going with Guskov doesn't mean what some people think it means. Today's game was the second of back-to-back and Guskov was always scheduled to play in it. Askarov will start on Wednesday.

 

[SlafCaufield]

This why you never take goalies in the top 20 picks unless his name is CAREY PRICE

 

[ponder]

This why you never take goalies in the top 20 picks unless his name is CAREY PRICE

Brodeur, Luongo, Vasi, Fleury, Fuhr, Kolzig, Barrasso, Giguere, etc. Knight and Wallstedt are quite promising too.

Askarov has huge potential, super athletic in the Fleury/Quick vein, but he really needs to learn to play a quieter, calmer game. Overcommits and takes himself out of position far too often, he looks like an iffy pick. But that doesn’t mean it’s always a bad idea to take goalies in the top 20 - lots of top 20 picks at all positions but, and clearly there are plenty of goalies taken in the top 20 where it’s been a great pick.

 

[Gnashville]

Brodeur, Luongo, Vasi, Fleury, Fuhr, Kolzig, Barrasso, Giguere, etc. Knight and Wallstedt are quite promising too.

Askarov has huge potential, super athletic in the Fleury/Quick vein, but he really needs to learn to play a quieter, calmer game. Overcommits and takes himself out of position far too often, he looks like an iffy pick. But that doesn’t mean it’s always a bad idea to take goalies in the top 20 - lots of top 20 picks at all positions but, and clearly there are plenty of goalies taken in the top 20 where it’s been a great pick.

Now list all the other Goalies picked in the first round that failed miserably. Askarov is just another in the long line first round goalies that never panned out. It’s the one position that GM’s should shy away from until the later rounds. Predators have done it 3 times without any success.

 

[ponder]

Now list all the other Goalies picked in the first round that failed miserably. Askarov is just another in the long line first round goalies that never panned out. It’s the one position that GM’s should shy away from until the later rounds. Predators have done it 3 times without any success.

I think it’s a little early to call Askarov a bust, dude is just 19 years old, and his KHL resume is pretty good. I have concerns about his game, but his upside is massive if he can learn to quiet/calm his game down, and leverage his athleticism without overcommitting so much.

Also, isn’t Askarov just the second goalie the Preds have ever selected in the 1st round, not the third? And the first was way back in 1999, one of the worst drafts of all time, where nearly everyone busted. The Preds took Finley at 6 that year, but from picks 6-25, the best player by a wide margin was Barrett Jackman - they didn’t really miss out on anything by gambling (unsuccessfully) on a goalie that year.

Goalies are certainly a high risk 1st round pick, they’re hard to project, but when you hit on a legit franchise goalie they have a massive impact. Guys like Price, Vasi, Brodeur, Luongo, Rask, etc. were unquestionably excellent picks (followed by unquestionably atrocious trade for Luongo/Rask). Having a hard “no goalies in the 1st round” policy, you’re going to lose out on franchise players. Let’s not forget that the majority of 1st round picks at any position becoming low impact players - either complete busts, or just middling players that you can sign for ~$1-2 mil AAV any free agency, with really no advantage to drafting them. The point of draft picks, first round or otherwise, is to gamble on guys who could become high impact players that you control for a long time - goalies represent an especially high risk/high reward gamble, but it’s a gamble no matter who you select.

 

[Soundgarden]

Now list all the other Goalies picked in the first round that failed miserably. Askarov is just another in the long line first round goalies that never panned out. It’s the one position that GM’s should shy away from until the later rounds. Predators have done it 3 times without any success.

You're gonna be miserable about this pick for years, aren't you? He's 19, he's got years before we declare he's "failed miserably."

I'd like to see him traded to a Russian team that doesn't have such a log jam in net so he can get some more games in.

 

[Gnashville]

I think it’s a little early to call Askarov a bust, dude is just 19 years old, and his KHL resume is pretty good. I have concerns about his game, but his upside is massive if he can learn to quiet/calm his game down, and leverage his athleticism without overcommitting so much.

Also, isn’t Askarov just the second goalie the Preds have ever selected in the 1st round, not the third? And the first was way back in 1999, one of the worst drafts of all time, where nearly everyone busted. The Preds took Finley at 6 that year, but from picks 6-25, the best player by a wide margin was Barrett Jackman - they didn’t really miss out on anything by gambling (unsuccessfully) on a goalie that year.

Goalies are certainly a high risk 1st round pick, they’re hard to project, but when you hit on a legit franchise goalie they have a massive impact. Guys like Price, Vasi, Brodeur, Luongo, Rask, etc. were unquestionably excellent picks (followed by unquestionably atrocious trade for Luongo/Rask). Having a hard “no goalies in the 1st round” policy, you’re going to lose out on franchise players. Let’s not forget that the majority of 1st round picks at any position becoming low impact players - either complete busts, or just middling players that you can sign for ~$1-2 mil AAV any free agency, with really no advantage to drafting them. The point of draft picks, first round or otherwise, is to gamble on guys who could become high impact players that you control for a long time - goalies represent an especially high risk/high reward gamble, but it’s a gamble no matter who you select.

In 2008 the Predators took Chet Pickard and they traded down with Ottawa who took Erik Karlsson.

 

[ponder]

In 2008 the Predators took Chet Pickard and they traded down with Ottawa who took Erik Karlsson.

Ah touche. Although the next 3 picks after Pickard were:

• Luca Sbisa
• Michael Del Zotto
• Anton Gustafsson

So again, players at all positions bust a lot, it's the norm, not just goalies.

 

[ponder]

Now list all the other Goalies picked in the first round that failed miserably.

I was curious to take a really objective look at this, so I did. Here's an analysis of all goalies taken in the 1st round in the past 20 drafts (2002-2021), and a comparison between them and the next 5 players taken after them, to get an idea of "was this a good pick over the other top contenders at this spot".

I'll use these verdicts for each pick:

• Excellent pick - the best of this range (them and the next 5 picks)
• Good pick - 2nd best
• Average pick - 3rd/4th best
• Bad pick - 5th best
• Terrible pick - 6th best (a.k.a. worst of the range)

Or:

• Too early to judge - for when we really just can't rank the players yet

Here's how I have it:

• 2002
  • Kari Lehtonen (2nd overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Bouwmeester, Pitkanen, Ryan Whitney, Upshall, Lupul
    • Average-good pick
      • Bouwmeester was the best of the bunch, otherwise hard to rank
      • Personally I have it as roughly a draw between Lehtonen and Pitkanen, then the other 3 slightly behind
      • Lehtonen's career was shortened by injuries, but he was still a quality #1 goalie for a decade or so
  • Cam Ward (25th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Martin Vagner, Mike Morris, Jonas Johansson, Hannu Toivonen, Jim Slater
    • Excellent pick
      • Ward is by far the best of this group
  • Hannu Toivonen (29th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Jim Slater, Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers, Janos Vas, Lee Falardeau, Tobias Stephan
    • Average pick
      • Toivonen was a bust, but they all were
      • Jim Slater was the only real NHLer in this group, and he was a 4th liner
• 2003
  • Marc-Andre Fleury (1st overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Eric Staal, Nathan Horton, Nikolai Zherdev, Thomas Vanek, Milan Michalek
    • Good-excellent pick
      • Arguable between Fleury/Staal who was the best, but they're clearly better than the rest
      • This draft was stacked later in the 1st round (and 2nd round), but in Fleury's range, he was one of the best picks
• 2004
  • Al Montoya (6th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Rostislav Olesz, Alexandre Picard, Ladislav Smid, Boris Valabik, Lauri Tukonen
    • Average pick
      • You can rank Montoya/Olesz/Smid however ... maybe Smid first? None were very good, and Picard/Valabik/Tukonen were full busts
  • Devan Dubnyk (14th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Alexander Radulov, Petteri Nokelainen, Marek Schwarz, Kyle Chipchura, Lauri Korpikoski
    • Good-excellent pick
      • Dubnyk/Radulov arguable, but they're the clear top 2
  • Marek Schwarz (17th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Kyle Chipchura, Lauri Korpikoski, Travis Zajac, Wojtek Wolski, Lukas Kaspar
    • Terrible-bad pick
      • Either Schwarz or Kaspar are the worst
  • Cory Schneider (26th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Jeff Schultz, Mark Fistric, Mike Green, Andy Rogers, Johannes Salmonsson
    • Good-excellent pick
      • Schneider/Green arguable, but they're the clear top 2
• 2005
  • Carey Price (5th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Gilbert Brule, Jack Skille, Devin Setoguchi, Brian Lee, Luc Bourdon
    • Excellent pick
      • Best of the group by an absolutely ridiculous margin
  • Tuukka Rask (21st overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Matt Lashoff, Nicklas Bergfors, T.J. Oshie, Andrew Cogliano, Matt Pelech
    • Excellent pick
      • Best of the group by a wide margin (Oshie 2nd, well behind)
• 2006
  • Jonathan Bernier (11th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Bryan Little, Jiri Tlusty, Michael Grabner, Riku Helenius, Ty Wishart
    • Average-good pick
      • Little #1, then arguable between Bernier/Grabner for 2/3
  • Riku Helenius (15th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Ty Wishart, Trevor Lewis, Chris Stewart, Mark Mitera, David Fischer
    • Bad-average pick
      • Lewis and Stewart the top 2, the rest all busts
  • Semyon Varlamov (23rd overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Dennis Persson, Patrik Berglund, Leland Irving, Ivan Vishnevskiy, Nick Foligno
    • Average-good pick
      • I'd put Foligno #1, then arguable between Varlamov/Berglund for 2/3 (both far above the rest)
  • Leland Irving (26th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Ivan Vishnevskiy, Nick Foligno, Chris Summers, Matt Corrente, Tomas Kana
    • Average pick
      • All busts except Foligno
• 2007
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2008
  • Chet Pickard (18th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Luca Sbisa, Michael Del Zotto, Anton Gustafsson, Jordan Eberle, Tyler Cuma
    • Bad pick
      • Eberle/Sbisa/MDZ top 3, Pickard/Gustafsson/Cuma all busts (1 total NHL game between them)
  • Tom McCollum (30th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Jacob Markstrom, Vyacheslav Voynov, Phil McRae, Jake Allen, Nicolas Deschamps
    • Bad pick
      • Markstrom/Voynov/Allen top 3, McCollum/McRae/Deschamps all busts
      • Funnily enough, going goalie was the right call, they just went with the wrong goalie - should've gone Markstrom (or Allen)
• 2009
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2010
  • Jack Campbell (11th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Cam Fowler, Brandon Gormley, Jaden Schwartz, Derek Forbort, Vladimir Tarasenko
    • Average pick
      • Tarasenko 1, Schwartz 2, Fowler 3, Campbell 4, Forbort 5, Gormley 6
      • Campbell has a very small chance to move up to as high as 2 on this list if he can keep playing like he has for the Leafs, but for now he's a solid 4
  • Mark Visentin (27th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Charlie Coyle, Emerson Etem, Brock Nelson, Tyler Pitlick, Jared Knight
    • Terrible-bad pick
      • Clear bottom 2, with Jared Knight
• 2011
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2012
  • Andrei Vasilevskiy (19th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Scott Laughton, Mark Jankowski, Olli Maatta, Mike Matheson, Malcolm Subban
    • Excellent pick
      • Best of the group by an absolutely ridiculous margin
  • Malcolm Subban (24th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Jordan Schmaltz, Brendan Gaunce, Henrik Samuelsson, Brady Skjei, Stefan Matteau
    • Average pick
      • Skjei the clear #1, after that it's arguable between Subban/Gaunce/Matteau, all borderline NHLers. Schmaltz/Samuelsson the clear bottom 2
• 2013
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2014
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2015
  • Ilya Samsonov (22nd overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Brock Boeser, Travis Konecny, Jack Roslovic, Noah Juulsen, Jacob Larsson
    • Average pick
      • We're starting to enter "too early to judge" territory. Samsonov could still be anywhere from a high end #1 to a bust
      • But for now I'll guess either 3rd or 4th - TK/Boeser top 2, then Roslovic/Samsonov arguable for 3/4, both ahead of Juulsen/Larsson
• 2016
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2017
  • Jake Oettinger (26th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Morgan Frost, Shane Bowers, Henri Jokiharju, Eeli Tolvanen, Klim Kostin
    • Too early to judge
      • Early returns look good, he's been great for Dallas this year, but it's just too early to judge most of these guys

And then since then, goalies taken in the 1st round are Spencer Knight, Yaroslav Askarov, Sebastian Cossa and Jesper Wallstedt, and it's just too early to judge for all of them.

So overall I have it:

• Excellent pick: 4
• Good-excellent pick: 3
  
• Average-good pick: 3
  
• Average pick: 6
  
• Bad-average pick: 1
  
• Bad pick: 2
  
• Terrible-bad pick: 2

And then 5 too early to tell. So overall, over the past 20 years, it seems like goalies have been a bit better than the 5 players picked after them - more above average than below average picks.

I'd say this clearly contradicts your idea that it's a bad idea to pick goalies in the 1st round. The Preds may not have had much success with their 1st round goalies, but it's a tiny sample size, and just one team. Overall 1st round goalie picks seem to be fairly solid.

I do think that over time:

• Scouting of forwards and dmen has gotten more accurate - fewer busts, fewer steals
• Scouting of goalies hasn't improved nearly as much - still more uncertainty

And because of this, teams almost never take goalies top 10 anymore, and are more hesitant to take them in the 1st round at all. From roughly the mid 90s to mid 2000s, it was common for goalies to go top 5 - in that era guys like Knight/Askarov/Cossa/Wallstedt likely would have gone top 5ish, which is too high for the risk involved today, when the certainty for a top 5 F/D is just so much higher. However, I think goalies are going in appropriate spots now, with really top goalie prospects going in the ~10-20 range. They're still a bit risky there, but so are forwards and dmen in that range, and the upside is often huge.

 

[Kaners PPGs]

I'd say this clearly contradicts your idea that it's a bad idea to pick goalies in the 1st round. The Preds may not have had much success with their 1st round goalies, but it's a tiny sample size, and just one team. Overall 1st round goalie picks seem to be fairly solid.

I do think that over time:

• Scouting of forwards and dmen has gotten more accurate - fewer busts, fewer steals
• Scouting of goalies hasn't improved nearly as much - still more uncertainty

And because of this, teams almost never take goalies top 10 anymore, and are more hesitant to take them in the 1st round at all. From roughly the mid 90s to mid 2000s, it was common for goalies to go top 5 - in that era guys like Knight/Askarov/Cossa/Wallstedt likely would have gone top 5ish, which is too high for the risk involved today, when the certainty for a top 5 F/D is just so much higher. However, I think goalies are going in appropriate spots now, with really top goalie prospects going in the ~10-20 range. They're still a bit risky there, but so are forwards and dmen in that range, and the upside is often huge.

Helluva post! Thanks for posting. This is the type of researched article I'd like to see on the Athletic.

 

[Stephen]

Now list all the other Goalies picked in the first round that failed miserably. Askarov is just another in the long line first round goalies that never panned out. It’s the one position that GM’s should shy away from until the later rounds. Predators have done it 3 times without any success.

The good news is a lot of teams would be willing to take Askarov off Nashville's hands, should they not be satisfied.

 

[Stephen]

I was curious to take a really objective look at this, so I did. Here's an analysis of all goalies taken in the 1st round in the past 20 drafts (2002-2021), and a comparison between them and the next 5 players taken after them, to get an idea of "was this a good pick over the other top contenders at this spot".

I'd say this clearly contradicts your idea that it's a bad idea to pick goalies in the 1st round. The Preds may not have had much success with their 1st round goalies, but it's a tiny sample size, and just one team. Overall 1st round goalie picks seem to be fairly solid.

I do think that over time:

• Scouting of forwards and dmen has gotten more accurate - fewer busts, fewer steals
• Scouting of goalies hasn't improved nearly as much - still more uncertainty

And because of this, teams almost never take goalies top 10 anymore, and are more hesitant to take them in the 1st round at all. From roughly the mid 90s to mid 2000s, it was common for goalies to go top 5 - in that era guys like Knight/Askarov/Cossa/Wallstedt likely would have gone top 5ish, which is too high for the risk involved today, when the certainty for a top 5 F/D is just so much higher. However, I think goalies are going in appropriate spots now, with really top goalie prospects going in the ~10-20 range. They're still a bit risky there, but so are forwards and dmen in that range, and the upside is often huge.

I have an alternative theory to the idea that "goalies are voodoo and you never know." A lot of development goes into building up a goalie to be pro ready post draft, and the competence level varies by team. Also another factor that comes into play is the position has evolved tremendously between 2002 and 2021 and again, that competency seems to vary greatly from organization to organization.

I notice some teams like the LA Kings with Bill Ranford/Dusty Imoo are able to find a lot of random athletes and build them up into quality NHL goalies. Quick was a mid round pick, Martin Jones came out of nowhere and was good for a number of years. They rebuild Jack Campbell's game. Cal Petersen seems like another guy they're grooming. Garrett Sparks seems like a guy they're trying to repurpose.

Maybe some teams are struggling with those highly drafted goalies because they're attracted to certain raw tools but don't have the personnel to develop them?

 

[nergish]

He'll need to learn to play more composed, like his countryman Shesterkin has, to become a truly great goaltender.
Even a guy like Thatcher Demko who was as electric and athletic as they come as a collegiate player, had to buzz his head and go full zen-Monk to reach that next level.

Flash and athleticism are things I would not want to work out of his game, but the best tenders have learned how to calm down their movements and pick their spots. Right now, Askarov looks more like Petr Mrazek than Igor Shesterkin.

 

[Gnashville]

The good news is a lot of teams would be willing to take Askarov off Nashville's hands, should they not be satisfied.

I wonder what his Trade value is now?

 

[Legionnaire11]

Also another factor that comes into play is the position has evolved tremendously between 2002 and 2021

And I think you can see the goalie picks having more success over that period as well. I think that farther in the past when goaltending was more about reflexes and athleticism, it was easier to bust. Today with the advances in equipment, and the reliance on percentages for blocking shots, goalies are more robotic than ever. It's not as pleasant from a visual entertainment standpoint, but I think it makes drafting them a bit safer as the position continues to evolve.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I was curious to take a really objective look at this, so I did. Here's an analysis of all goalies taken in the 1st round in the past 20 drafts (2002-2021), and a comparison between them and the next 5 players taken after them, to get an idea of "was this a good pick over the other top contenders at this spot".

I'll use these verdicts for each pick:

• Excellent pick - the best of this range (them and the next 5 picks)
• Good pick - 2nd best
• Average pick - 3rd/4th best
• Bad pick - 5th best
• Terrible pick - 6th best (a.k.a. worst of the range)

Or:

• Too early to judge - for when we really just can't rank the players yet

Here's how I have it:

• 2002
  • Kari Lehtonen (2nd overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Bouwmeester, Pitkanen, Ryan Whitney, Upshall, Lupul
    • Average-good pick
      • Bouwmeester was the best of the bunch, otherwise hard to rank
      • Personally I have it as roughly a draw between Lehtonen and Pitkanen, then the other 3 slightly behind
      • Lehtonen's career was shortened by injuries, but he was still a quality #1 goalie for a decade or so
  • Cam Ward (25th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Martin Vagner, Mike Morris, Jonas Johansson, Hannu Toivonen, Jim Slater
    • Excellent pick
      • Ward is by far the best of this group
  • Hannu Toivonen (29th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Jim Slater, Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers, Janos Vas, Lee Falardeau, Tobias Stephan
    • Average pick
      • Toivonen was a bust, but they all were
      • Jim Slater was the only real NHLer in this group, and he was a 4th liner
• 2003
  • Marc-Andre Fleury (1st overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Eric Staal, Nathan Horton, Nikolai Zherdev, Thomas Vanek, Milan Michalek
    • Good-excellent pick
      • Arguable between Fleury/Staal who was the best, but they're clearly better than the rest
      • This draft was stacked later in the 1st round (and 2nd round), but in Fleury's range, he was one of the best picks
• 2004
  • Al Montoya (6th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Rostislav Olesz, Alexandre Picard, Ladislav Smid, Boris Valabik, Lauri Tukonen
    • Average pick
      • You can rank Montoya/Olesz/Smid however ... maybe Smid first? None were very good, and Picard/Valabik/Tukonen were full busts
  • Devan Dubnyk (14th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Alexander Radulov, Petteri Nokelainen, Marek Schwarz, Kyle Chipchura, Lauri Korpikoski
    • Good-excellent pick
      • Dubnyk/Radulov arguable, but they're the clear top 2
  • Marek Schwarz (17th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Kyle Chipchura, Lauri Korpikoski, Travis Zajac, Wojtek Wolski, Lukas Kaspar
    • Terrible-bad pick
      • Either Schwarz or Kaspar are the worst
  • Cory Schneider (26th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Jeff Schultz, Mark Fistric, Mike Green, Andy Rogers, Johannes Salmonsson
    • Good-excellent pick
      • Schneider/Green arguable, but they're the clear top 2
• 2005
  • Carey Price (5th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Gilbert Brule, Jack Skille, Devin Setoguchi, Brian Lee, Luc Bourdon
    • Excellent pick
      • Best of the group by an absolutely ridiculous margin
  • Tuukka Rask (21st overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Matt Lashoff, Nicklas Bergfors, T.J. Oshie, Andrew Cogliano, Matt Pelech
    • Excellent pick
      • Best of the group by a wide margin (Oshie 2nd, well behind)
• 2006
  • Jonathan Bernier (11th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Bryan Little, Jiri Tlusty, Michael Grabner, Riku Helenius, Ty Wishart
    • Average-good pick
      • Little #1, then arguable between Bernier/Grabner for 2/3
  • Riku Helenius (15th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Ty Wishart, Trevor Lewis, Chris Stewart, Mark Mitera, David Fischer
    • Bad-average pick
      • Lewis and Stewart the top 2, the rest all busts
  • Semyon Varlamov (23rd overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Dennis Persson, Patrik Berglund, Leland Irving, Ivan Vishnevskiy, Nick Foligno
    • Average-good pick
      • I'd put Foligno #1, then arguable between Varlamov/Berglund for 2/3 (both far above the rest)
  • Leland Irving (26th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Ivan Vishnevskiy, Nick Foligno, Chris Summers, Matt Corrente, Tomas Kana
    • Average pick
      • All busts except Foligno
• 2007
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2008
  • Chet Pickard (18th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Luca Sbisa, Michael Del Zotto, Anton Gustafsson, Jordan Eberle, Tyler Cuma
    • Bad pick
      • Eberle/Sbisa/MDZ top 3, Pickard/Gustafsson/Cuma all busts (1 total NHL game between them)
  • Tom McCollum (30th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Jacob Markstrom, Vyacheslav Voynov, Phil McRae, Jake Allen, Nicolas Deschamps
    • Bad pick
      • Markstrom/Voynov/Allen top 3, McCollum/McRae/Deschamps all busts
      • Funnily enough, going goalie was the right call, they just went with the wrong goalie - should've gone Markstrom (or Allen)
• 2009
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2010
  • Jack Campbell (11th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Cam Fowler, Brandon Gormley, Jaden Schwartz, Derek Forbort, Vladimir Tarasenko
    • Average pick
      • Tarasenko 1, Schwartz 2, Fowler 3, Campbell 4, Forbort 5, Gormley 6
      • Campbell has a very small chance to move up to as high as 2 on this list if he can keep playing like he has for the Leafs, but for now he's a solid 4
  • Mark Visentin (27th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Charlie Coyle, Emerson Etem, Brock Nelson, Tyler Pitlick, Jared Knight
    • Terrible-bad pick
      • Clear bottom 2, with Jared Knight
• 2011
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2012
  • Andrei Vasilevskiy (19th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Scott Laughton, Mark Jankowski, Olli Maatta, Mike Matheson, Malcolm Subban
    • Excellent pick
      • Best of the group by an absolutely ridiculous margin
  • Malcolm Subban (24th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Jordan Schmaltz, Brendan Gaunce, Henrik Samuelsson, Brady Skjei, Stefan Matteau
    • Average pick
      • Skjei the clear #1, after that it's arguable between Subban/Gaunce/Matteau, all borderline NHLers. Schmaltz/Samuelsson the clear bottom 2
• 2013
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2014
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2015
  • Ilya Samsonov (22nd overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Brock Boeser, Travis Konecny, Jack Roslovic, Noah Juulsen, Jacob Larsson
    • Average pick
      • We're starting to enter "too early to judge" territory. Samsonov could still be anywhere from a high end #1 to a bust
      • But for now I'll guess either 3rd or 4th - TK/Boeser top 2, then Roslovic/Samsonov arguable for 3/4, both ahead of Juulsen/Larsson
• 2016
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2017
  • Jake Oettinger (26th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Morgan Frost, Shane Bowers, Henri Jokiharju, Eeli Tolvanen, Klim Kostin
    • Too early to judge
      • Early returns look good, he's been great for Dallas this year, but it's just too early to judge most of these guys

And then since then, goalies taken in the 1st round are Spencer Knight, Yaroslav Askarov, Sebastian Cossa and Jesper Wallstedt, and it's just too early to judge for all of them.

So overall I have it:

• Excellent pick: 4
• Good-excellent pick: 3
  
• Average-good pick: 3
  
• Average pick: 6
  
• Bad-average pick: 1
  
• Bad pick: 2
  
• Terrible-bad pick: 2

And then 5 too early to tell. So overall, over the past 20 years, it seems like goalies have been a bit better than the 5 players picked after them - more above average than below average picks.

I'd say this clearly contradicts your idea that it's a bad idea to pick goalies in the 1st round. The Preds may not have had much success with their 1st round goalies, but it's a tiny sample size, and just one team. Overall 1st round goalie picks seem to be fairly solid.

I do think that over time:

• Scouting of forwards and dmen has gotten more accurate - fewer busts, fewer steals
• Scouting of goalies hasn't improved nearly as much - still more uncertainty

And because of this, teams almost never take goalies top 10 anymore, and are more hesitant to take them in the 1st round at all. From roughly the mid 90s to mid 2000s, it was common for goalies to go top 5 - in that era guys like Knight/Askarov/Cossa/Wallstedt likely would have gone top 5ish, which is too high for the risk involved today, when the certainty for a top 5 F/D is just so much higher. However, I think goalies are going in appropriate spots now, with really top goalie prospects going in the ~10-20 range. They're still a bit risky there, but so are forwards and dmen in that range, and the upside is often huge.

Can a moderator please paywall this? It can fund new HFBoards servers.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

How is he lately?

 

[Legionnaire11]

 

[Caser]

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Good timing for the admirals to bring him in with the Saros injury.

 

[cjeagle]

I was curious to take a really objective look at this, so I did. Here's an analysis of all goalies taken in the 1st round in the past 20 drafts (2002-2021), and a comparison between them and the next 5 players taken after them, to get an idea of "was this a good pick over the other top contenders at this spot".

I'll use these verdicts for each pick:

• Excellent pick - the best of this range (them and the next 5 picks)
• Good pick - 2nd best
• Average pick - 3rd/4th best
• Bad pick - 5th best
• Terrible pick - 6th best (a.k.a. worst of the range)

Or:

• Too early to judge - for when we really just can't rank the players yet

Here's how I have it:

• 2002
  • Kari Lehtonen (2nd overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Bouwmeester, Pitkanen, Ryan Whitney, Upshall, Lupul
    • Average-good pick
      • Bouwmeester was the best of the bunch, otherwise hard to rank
      • Personally I have it as roughly a draw between Lehtonen and Pitkanen, then the other 3 slightly behind
      • Lehtonen's career was shortened by injuries, but he was still a quality #1 goalie for a decade or so
  • Cam Ward (25th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Martin Vagner, Mike Morris, Jonas Johansson, Hannu Toivonen, Jim Slater
    • Excellent pick
      • Ward is by far the best of this group
  • Hannu Toivonen (29th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Jim Slater, Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers, Janos Vas, Lee Falardeau, Tobias Stephan
    • Average pick
      • Toivonen was a bust, but they all were
      • Jim Slater was the only real NHLer in this group, and he was a 4th liner
• 2003
  • Marc-Andre Fleury (1st overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Eric Staal, Nathan Horton, Nikolai Zherdev, Thomas Vanek, Milan Michalek
    • Good-excellent pick
      • Arguable between Fleury/Staal who was the best, but they're clearly better than the rest
      • This draft was stacked later in the 1st round (and 2nd round), but in Fleury's range, he was one of the best picks
• 2004
  • Al Montoya (6th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Rostislav Olesz, Alexandre Picard, Ladislav Smid, Boris Valabik, Lauri Tukonen
    • Average pick
      • You can rank Montoya/Olesz/Smid however ... maybe Smid first? None were very good, and Picard/Valabik/Tukonen were full busts
  • Devan Dubnyk (14th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Alexander Radulov, Petteri Nokelainen, Marek Schwarz, Kyle Chipchura, Lauri Korpikoski
    • Good-excellent pick
      • Dubnyk/Radulov arguable, but they're the clear top 2
  • Marek Schwarz (17th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Kyle Chipchura, Lauri Korpikoski, Travis Zajac, Wojtek Wolski, Lukas Kaspar
    • Terrible-bad pick
      • Either Schwarz or Kaspar are the worst
  • Cory Schneider (26th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Jeff Schultz, Mark Fistric, Mike Green, Andy Rogers, Johannes Salmonsson
    • Good-excellent pick
      • Schneider/Green arguable, but they're the clear top 2
• 2005
  • Carey Price (5th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Gilbert Brule, Jack Skille, Devin Setoguchi, Brian Lee, Luc Bourdon
    • Excellent pick
      • Best of the group by an absolutely ridiculous margin
  • Tuukka Rask (21st overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Matt Lashoff, Nicklas Bergfors, T.J. Oshie, Andrew Cogliano, Matt Pelech
    • Excellent pick
      • Best of the group by a wide margin (Oshie 2nd, well behind)
• 2006
  • Jonathan Bernier (11th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Bryan Little, Jiri Tlusty, Michael Grabner, Riku Helenius, Ty Wishart
    • Average-good pick
      • Little #1, then arguable between Bernier/Grabner for 2/3
  • Riku Helenius (15th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Ty Wishart, Trevor Lewis, Chris Stewart, Mark Mitera, David Fischer
    • Bad-average pick
      • Lewis and Stewart the top 2, the rest all busts
  • Semyon Varlamov (23rd overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Dennis Persson, Patrik Berglund, Leland Irving, Ivan Vishnevskiy, Nick Foligno
    • Average-good pick
      • I'd put Foligno #1, then arguable between Varlamov/Berglund for 2/3 (both far above the rest)
  • Leland Irving (26th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Ivan Vishnevskiy, Nick Foligno, Chris Summers, Matt Corrente, Tomas Kana
    • Average pick
      • All busts except Foligno
• 2007
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2008
  • Chet Pickard (18th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Luca Sbisa, Michael Del Zotto, Anton Gustafsson, Jordan Eberle, Tyler Cuma
    • Bad pick
      • Eberle/Sbisa/MDZ top 3, Pickard/Gustafsson/Cuma all busts (1 total NHL game between them)
  • Tom McCollum (30th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Jacob Markstrom, Vyacheslav Voynov, Phil McRae, Jake Allen, Nicolas Deschamps
    • Bad pick
      • Markstrom/Voynov/Allen top 3, McCollum/McRae/Deschamps all busts
      • Funnily enough, going goalie was the right call, they just went with the wrong goalie - should've gone Markstrom (or Allen)
• 2009
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2010
  • Jack Campbell (11th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Cam Fowler, Brandon Gormley, Jaden Schwartz, Derek Forbort, Vladimir Tarasenko
    • Average pick
      • Tarasenko 1, Schwartz 2, Fowler 3, Campbell 4, Forbort 5, Gormley 6
      • Campbell has a very small chance to move up to as high as 2 on this list if he can keep playing like he has for the Leafs, but for now he's a solid 4
  • Mark Visentin (27th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Charlie Coyle, Emerson Etem, Brock Nelson, Tyler Pitlick, Jared Knight
    • Terrible-bad pick
      • Clear bottom 2, with Jared Knight
• 2011
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2012
  • Andrei Vasilevskiy (19th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Scott Laughton, Mark Jankowski, Olli Maatta, Mike Matheson, Malcolm Subban
    • Excellent pick
      • Best of the group by an absolutely ridiculous margin
  • Malcolm Subban (24th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Jordan Schmaltz, Brendan Gaunce, Henrik Samuelsson, Brady Skjei, Stefan Matteau
    • Average pick
      • Skjei the clear #1, after that it's arguable between Subban/Gaunce/Matteau, all borderline NHLers. Schmaltz/Samuelsson the clear bottom 2
• 2013
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2014
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2015
  • Ilya Samsonov (22nd overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Brock Boeser, Travis Konecny, Jack Roslovic, Noah Juulsen, Jacob Larsson
    • Average pick
      • We're starting to enter "too early to judge" territory. Samsonov could still be anywhere from a high end #1 to a bust
      • But for now I'll guess either 3rd or 4th - TK/Boeser top 2, then Roslovic/Samsonov arguable for 3/4, both ahead of Juulsen/Larsson
• 2016
  • No goalies taken in the 1st round
• 2017
  • Jake Oettinger (26th overall)
    • Next 5 picks: Morgan Frost, Shane Bowers, Henri Jokiharju, Eeli Tolvanen, Klim Kostin
    • Too early to judge
      • Early returns look good, he's been great for Dallas this year, but it's just too early to judge most of these guys

And then since then, goalies taken in the 1st round are Spencer Knight, Yaroslav Askarov, Sebastian Cossa and Jesper Wallstedt, and it's just too early to judge for all of them.

So overall I have it:

• Excellent pick: 4
• Good-excellent pick: 3
• Average-good pick: 3
• Average pick: 6
• Bad-average pick: 1
• Bad pick: 2
• Terrible-bad pick: 2

And then 5 too early to tell. So overall, over the past 20 years, it seems like goalies have been a bit better than the 5 players picked after them - more above average than below average picks.

I'd say this clearly contradicts your idea that it's a bad idea to pick goalies in the 1st round. The Preds may not have had much success with their 1st round goalies, but it's a tiny sample size, and just one team. Overall 1st round goalie picks seem to be fairly solid.

I do think that over time:

• Scouting of forwards and dmen has gotten more accurate - fewer busts, fewer steals
• Scouting of goalies hasn't improved nearly as much - still more uncertainty

And because of this, teams almost never take goalies top 10 anymore, and are more hesitant to take them in the 1st round at all. From roughly the mid 90s to mid 2000s, it was common for goalies to go top 5 - in that era guys like Knight/Askarov/Cossa/Wallstedt likely would have gone top 5ish, which is too high for the risk involved today, when the certainty for a top 5 F/D is just so much higher. However, I think goalies are going in appropriate spots now, with really top goalie prospects going in the ~10-20 range. They're still a bit risky there, but so are forwards and dmen in that range, and the upside is often huge.

I hope Cossa pans out. It cost Detroit 3 draft picks to get him at #15. He has played some games where he gave up a lot of goals but at least for now he is performing well in the WHL playoffs being named WHL Goaltender of the Month for April.

Interestingly TSN ranked 2 goalies(Wallstedt at #6 and Cossa at #13) ahead of Askarov at #36 in their list of top NHL affiliated players. That surprised me since I ranked Askarov a lot higher soon after his draft year.

Blueline Power: Sabres' D-Man tops Button's annual top prospects list - TSN.ca

Craig Button has seen the future of the NHL and it’s in 3D. TSN’s Director of Scouting has defencemen 1-2-3 on his 2022 list of the Top 50 NHL-affiliated Prospects: No. 1 Owen Power of Buffalo, No. 2 Jake Sanderson of Ottawa, and No. 3 Simon Edvinsson of Detroit.

www.tsn.ca

 

[alko]

Good timing for the admirals to bring him in with the Saros injury.

How will he travel to North America?

 

[Caser]

How will he travel to North America?

He is already there, was practicing with the team yesterday.