Sportsnet: Friedman - 30 Thoughts (March 16, 2016)

[Daisy Jane]

I think when you play on a team that has tremendous puck possession, scores a lot, and wins a ton of games, you don't get the time and opportunity to work on other aspects of the game, like playing without the puck.

Like my previous comment, I believe that's why Nylander hasn't made a huge impact yet 5 on 5 on the Leafs. If you watch him carefully, he is standing around a lot and not moving his feet as much as he should be. He's getting accustomed to playing without the puck, as opposed to being a huge driving force for the Marlies and scoring at a record pace.

That's why I think Marner would be better suited for the Leafs next season, if he shows that he is physically ready. An "NHL summer", as Babs would put it, would be great benefit for him

oh. thank you

 

[Stats01]

what bad habits would he develop playing in Junior?

not necessarily bad habits, but he could get bored which could lead to laziness which turns into bad habits.. The guy has put up almost 300 points in the past 2 years. Time to move on from junior and do something else. How much is he going to learn (especially at C) beating 17-18 year olds at the dot? I really hope he can impress in camp and we don't have to talk about this kid going back for a 4th year when he's completely dominated the field the past 2 years

 

[LeafsNation75]

Let's say hypothetically Toronto signs Steven Stamkos and is able to draft Auston Matthews, where would that leave Marner for making the team next season? Plus you have to assume that William Nylander should make the roster out of training camp and maybe someone else like Zach Hyman.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

The barrier being that they would much prefer having Marner in London, making that team much better then him not being there? Why would Dale Hunter, or Mark for that matter, want a top prospect to be shipped away in Europe when there's very little incentive for them to do so?

I don't think you thought that one through.

I did think it through, it seems you have one view on the situation without looking at the other. Yes the Hunters are invested in the Knights, but Mark is also invested in Toronto for now and well into the future, this is his job now and he will do whats best for the Maple leafs.

Just because Marner is one of the top players on the knights doesnt mean that Dale would sacrifice mitch's development and future for an extra year of play for London. Its a business yes, but they've built a reputation for being a good team to send your teenage sons to based on how they treat the players as humans and not commodities. London will be just fine without Mitch, just like they are every season when they lose superstars.

All of that will be even easier if they manage to win the Mem cup this year.

 

[Pookie]

"Rebuild is further along eh?"

Ok then.

Ticket prices going up. Ratings going down. Bigger Bell/Rogers payment next year.

Rebuild further along? Ie faster than expected? Accelerated if you will?

Sounds about right.

Sigh.

 

[indigobuffalo]

what bad habits would he develop playing in Junior?

Certain plays that work in Junior (because opponents are much slower, dumb, less skilled) can become problems because as the player progresses to higher levels of competition, the skills that "worked" in Junior suddenly don't, and this can be a big hurdle for many players to overcome.

It's why you see so many guys in the AHL that are top point producers (like Arcobello, for example) just can't seem to translate that ability to the NHL.

The concern for Marner would be that he doesn't get to play against opponents that will force him to evolve his talents to a higher level if he stays in the OHL another year.

Conversely, if he plays in the NHL, while he'll be exposed to the NHL skill/speed and forced to adapt his skill-set, some here are arguing that his body isn't developed enough to withstand the rigours of NHL physicality, which could result in long-term injuries that hamper his development as much or more than "wasting a year" in the OHL.

A great example of that latter scenario would be Edmonton, take your pick or Hall, Yakupov, Nugent-Hopkins, and possibly even McDavid, all of whom were immediately playing in the NHL and all of whom suffered major injuries in their first and second years, and 3 of whom (all but McDavid... so far) clearly suffered long-term hits to their development.

Only Hall has sort of broken through that. But Nugent-Hopkins is a mere 2C and Yakupov is a borderline bust.

So that's the Marner argument in a nutshell.

 

[indigobuffalo]

"Rebuild is further along eh?"

Ok then.

Ticket prices going up. Ratings going down. Bigger Bell/Rogers payment next year.

Rebuild further along? Ie faster than expected? Accelerated if you will?

Sounds about right.

Sigh.

Wouldn't you agree though? Soshnikov and Hyman are clearly ready for the NHL. I don't think many people had them pegged to be mainstays this early. Myself for sure among them.

I think the expectation was the only player that really had a chance to make the NHL next season was Nylander, but instead we're going to see quite a few others, and they've earned it, not because strings are being yanked by Bell/Rogers.

 

[Pookie]

Wouldn't you agree though? Soshnikov and Hyman are clearly ready for the NHL. I don't think many people had them pegged to be mainstays this early. Myself for sure among them.

I think the expectation was the only player that really had a chance to make the NHL next season was Nylander, but instead we're going to see quite a few others, and they've earned it, not because strings are being yanked by Bell/Rogers.

Further along implies not as much cupboard stocking and perhaps the trading of picks for players further along in their development (22-23).

The players you cite, sure.

What about D? Goalie? And the fact that looking good over a few games isn't the same as proving oneself at the NHL level.

Scott Moore of Rogers told us the Leafs would be a .500 or better team next year a few months ago. Which incidentally was before any of the players you noted had played an NHL game.

Lou apparently has reached that same conclusion.

Weird.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

Further along implies not as much cupboard stocking and perhaps the trading of picks for players further along in their development (22-23).

The players you cite, sure.

What about D? Goalie? And the fact that looking good over a few games isn't the same as proving oneself at the NHL level.

Scott Moore of Rogers told us the Leafs would be a .500 or better team next year a few months ago. Which incidentally was before any of the players you noted had played an NHL game.

Lou apparently has reached that same conclusion.

Weird.

Is that unreasonable though? We're around the same point pace as last year with a massive amount of injuries to the NHL-worst roster and a laughably bad season by Bernier, I can't see how this team can go anywhere but up no matter how slightly. Even if they change nothing other than cutting dead weight and letting Marlies come up, that's going to be a marked improvement from this year.

 

[Durrr]

what bad habits would he develop playing in Junior?

He dances around full teams in the O zone and stays out for 2 minute + shifts for the PP. Sounds like those would be potentially bad habits imo, similar to what Kadri did (and still does to a degree) when entering the league.

 

[dubey]

I feel like I watched this interview a few weeks ago

 

[exporta]

He mentions Marner being in a tough position in terms of being fully NHL ready right now but fully accepts the reality that he will be given every chance in training camp to earn a spot.

I think this is also a statement to Marner, pushing him to have a strong off season off training and putting on mass.

I would be worried if Lou came out and said "he's ready now". We need to continue to press these kids to work hard.

 

[exporta]

I feel like I watched this interview a few weeks ago

Interview was a while ago, but I think he just released his 30 thoughts.

 

[LeafsNation75]

He mentions Marner being in a tough position in terms of being fully NHL ready right now but fully accepts the reality that he will be given every chance in training camp to earn a spot.

I wonder if he said that so Marner doesn't go into next seasons training camp thinking he has a roster spot locked up. Wasn't that the type of entitlement the players had under previous management groups?

 

[Semantics]

So let's lose our heads now. 40% to 50% of the roster is anticipated to be moved out in the off-season (he said 50-60% is returning)! That's huge in-and-of-itself.

Add to that the part about the rebuild being further along than what Lou thought it would be at from this point (presumably the rapid indoctrination of Soshnikov and Hyman), and things are looking better by the day.

Also, I'm not sure too many people expected that we'd be able to move Phaneuf. That speeds things up. So does getting a guy like Carrick for Winnik.

The 40-50% of the roster number is pretty interesting. Including the guys on the IR who've played a lot this year it means we'd likely only keep 13-14 players tops. Guesses?

F: JVR, Bozak, Komarov, Nylander, Kadri, Soshnikov, Hyman, Brown
D: Rielly, Gardiner, Carrick, Marincin, Corrado
G: Sparks

That's 14 already. I'm not counting callups like Valiev/Leipsic/Loov/Leivo, who I don't consider full time Leafs yet (Valiev is presumably in tonight, but may start next year on the Marlies, the others probably Lou wouldn't be counting). This assumes Bernier will be traded, which I'm not sure is easy, and that Michael, Lupul, Laich, Greening get sent to the minors or somehow traded.

Seems like Lou might be planning some turnover even within the group above. Good chance we don't move forward with Corrado, but now I'm thinking one or more of JVR/Bozak/Komarov/Kadri/Gardiner might be moved. Holland, I think, is done for sure.

 

[diceman934]

I feel like I watched this interview a few weeks ago

You did....

 

[diceman934]

A couple of things here. Mitch will either be a Leaf or on London, we will not be sending him to play in another country.

Mitch would not be ruined if he had to return to Jr....anyone who thinks so, is mistaken. Personal opinion is that he is a Leaf and he could be released to play on the World Jr team if he was not getting a regular shift ( small chance this happens).

When Lou said about 50% of the line up will change ...it is simply a guess based on what happens this summer.

There are players that they would like to shed but may find it hard to do so. We will make a trade or two if we can involving our surplus prospects to make room for a new group.

 

[Damisoph]

How has Marner's body mass grown this season? I haven't been following things too closely due to life commitments, but my biggest bugbear with him playing in the NHL is his body and frame seemed too slight when we drafted him. I'd be more comfortable with him adding a bit of mass, but if they feel he's ready, who am I to say otherwise?

These guys don't build mass during the season, that's for the summer when all they should be doing is working out.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Interview was a while ago, but I think he just released his 30 thoughts.

So pre deadline even?

Just wondering. I find the 40-50% expectation of different players pretty intriguing coming from Lou. If it was pre deadline when he said it that makes a difference on how to interpret it.

 

[killer1980]

Seems like we hear the same hype every spring. I think I'll wait to make any kind of judgement. Scott Moore would grasp at any straw given to him. And, a .500 record would put them just behind Montreal this year. I still don't see any front liners... yet; potential for sure, but the Leafs have been oozing potential every spring for the last 47 years. Meanwhile, the coach, general manager and president will have a job for, at least, three years. Its a great gig if you can get it.

 

[Community]

So pre deadline even?

Just wondering. I find the 40-50% expectation of different players pretty intriguing coming from Lou. If it was pre deadline when he said it that makes a difference on how to interpret it.

Bozak, Bernier, Kadri, JVR, Komarov, Rielly, Gardiner, Lupul, Hunwick, Marincin would already make up a returning 40%

Edit: and if you don't see all those defensemen back, Holland/Spaling/Sparks have a good chance of coming back and were here pre-deadline.

 

[FlareKnight]

I think we might be overestimating how much the Leafs can just make London flip in whatever ways we want. They can't even make them play Marner at center all the time . London isn't a direct arm of Mark Hunter. He has major influence, but he's not all powerful. If they don't want Marner going to Europe, he's not going.

It's likely London or Toronto for Marner. Just have to see how ready he is next year.

 

[DopeyFish]

I think we might be overestimating how much the Leafs can just make London flip in whatever ways we want. They can't even make them play Marner at center all the time . London isn't a direct arm of Mark Hunter. He has major influence, but he's not all powerful. If they don't want Marner going to Europe, he's not going.

It's likely London or Toronto for Marner. Just have to see how ready he is next year.

mark hunter owns the team with his brother

so they kind of are a direct arm of mark hunter

 

[roosterman]

This is my bet for Marner:

1) 9 games with the Leafs to get a taste of what Babs wants him to work on
2) World Juniors in December / January
3) OHL for the rest of the year

There are not a lot of options and I don't see Europe as one of them.

 

[Stephen]

what bad habits would he develop playing in Junior?

Generally speaking, probably long, lazy shifts, poor habits away from the puck, Harlem Globetrotter tendencies that will require pro editing later on.

But I don't mind if he goes back to the OHL for another year, really. Especially if we get Matthews, I see Matthews getting the pro promotion before Marner.