Sportsnet: Friedman - 30 Thoughts (March 16, 2016)

[indigobuffalo]

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet covered a lot of interesting stuff on the Leafs this week. We got some actual answers out of Lou "Tight Lips" Lamoriello!

link to full article
17. We’re going to get interesting insight into the way the Toronto Maple Leafs organization really thinks, and the test case is going to be Martin Marincin. Marincin is playing very well as the season progresses, getting more minutes almost by attrition. He has, for a few years now, been highly regarded by the analytics community and Toronto’s assembled a bright staff of these thinkers.

That's a pretty polarizing statement, as Marincin is this year's Kostka/Lebda... But this is what I thought, so glad to see I have someone else backing me up this year...

Last year, there was no doubt they had influence. When Lou Lamoriello and Mike Babcock arrived, the feeling was that influence would decrease, by a large margin. Marincin is not a points producer. He’s not overly physical. He defends well. I’m very curious to see how much Babcock/Lamoriello value him at contract time and as the organization grows in talent.

It will be interesting. From what I've read from HF Boarders, Marincin seems like a useless flub. But yet he continues to get ice-time where others get stonewalled (Corrado, anyone?).

I thought, believing the anti-hype circulating around here, that he might've been getting ice-time to help move him at the deadline, but he's still here.

Could management be on his side?

18. Toronto GM Lou Lamoriello, on how close his current roster will be to next season’s: “I don’t think it’s close to what we will see. If we had to put a percentage, I’d probably say 50 per cent, maybe 60 if stretching it. But I think you’ll see changes.â€

What changes? He called it “premature†to give an exact answer.

“You’ll see young players in the lineup, how many I couldn’t answer… And I’m sure you’ll see acquisitions that hopefully we’re able to make. We know what our template is, I think we know what our needs are, and getting them filled is another thing. Once you identify them then it’s what can you do, and you can’t get ahead of yourself just for the sake of doing it….I do believe we’re a little bit ahead of where I thought we might be because of what the potential is — and I’m very careful of that word with some of our younger players — and how they’ve developed and the success they’ve had with the Marlies coming together, working together, knowing what it is to win.â€

So let's lose our heads now. 40% to 50% of the roster is anticipated to be moved out in the off-season (he said 50-60% is returning)! That's huge in-and-of-itself.

Add to that the part about the rebuild being further along than what Lou thought it would be at from this point (presumably the rapid indoctrination of Soshnikov and Hyman), and things are looking better by the day.

19. Is Mitch Marner, who cannot play in the American Hockey League next season, ready for the NHL?

“That’s a tough question,†Lamoriello said. “I do not feel that he’s ready today, whether he’s ready in September or October only time will tell. But he’s in a very difficult position with the success he’s had in junior, and maybe he’s too good for junior, coming September maybe not quite ready for the National Hockey League. So those will be judgments that have to be made at a certain time, but we don’t want to get ahead of ourselves. He’s got a season in the Ontario league right now that should be his focus, that’s where it should be.â€

Hoo-boy... this has been such a polarizing topic this year, as tons of people have been pencilling Marner onto the 2016-17 roster, while others have resorted to name-calling at the idea of him being anywhere but the OHL.

I, for one, am curious whether they might look at sending him overseas to play in one of the European Men's Leagues (SEL, KHL, etc.), sort of like how Matthews did, and how many of our European-born prospects do. Clearly with a contract with a "use-any-time opt out clause".

20. A couple other execs who know Lamoriello well say he might not admit it, but he needed a change. They used the word “rejuvenated†to describe him. Does he feel that way?

“Maybe. I’ll let you know a little more at a later period of time, but right now everybody is working toward a common goal. No one is allowing the media or the fans to get in the way of the decisions that have to be made. Whatever pressure is coming is whatever we put on internally, which is the way it should be, and I can assure you we put pressure on each other. That’s the only way you succeed.â€

21. In this week’s edition of questions Lamoriello laughs at and ignores: “Whoever gets the number one draft pick, are they guaranteed to take Auston Mhews?â€

Answer: “We’ll have to see at that draft table.â€

What if you get it?

“We’ll have to see.â€

So some exciting info! What does everyone else think?

Click to read more...

 

[BertCorbeau]

Is Modo still struggling? IIRC when Nylander was there they weren't a good team and even the worse after the Leafs brought Willie over. Maybe as a favour to them they could send Marner over there next year?

 

[indigobuffalo]

Is Modo still struggling? IIRC when Nylander was there they weren't a good team and even the worse after the Leafs brought Willie over. Maybe as a favour to them they could send Marner over there next year?

I don't think they would look to do another organization any favours, especially with regards to Nylander as he was our property, and we were doing THEM a favour letting him play there in the first place.

But what I do know is that Shanahan is a man of many contacts. He has a network of people out in Europe, many of whom are in positions of significant power. As does Lou Lamoriello.

Lamoriello is the man who first started bringing Russians into the NHL. He paved the way for the Russian 5, for Scotty Bowman, for, essentially, the Detroit and Chicago dynasties of the modern era, and helped define the NHL as it is today.

And Shanahan has been moulded in that same vision.

So these guys definitely will have some very good networks of people out in Europe that they trust very deeply, so lending a top prospect to a team run by one of those people is a very feasible undertaking.

For example, Sergei Federov is the GM of CSKA Moscow, and we're rumoured to be poaching one of their top players (Nikita Zaitsev). It would make more sense to see Marner playing there than for MODO. But again, it would come down to who they trusted the most, and where they would retain the most control, and of course the strategic benefit to both parties.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Is Modo still struggling? IIRC when Nylander was there they weren't a good team and even the worse after the Leafs brought Willie over. Maybe as a favour to them they could send Marner over there next year?

London would have to allow it, not us.

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

London would have to allow it, not us.

No. That agreement when it comes to players drafted out of the CHL is only to prevent them to play in the AHL when they could play in juniors instead. We can loan him out to a European team if we want to.

 

[LeafsNation75]

London would have to allow it, not us.

Given that Mark Hunter still owns part of the Knights wouldn't he also want Marner playing there next season, assuming he does not make the Leafs roster next season.

 

[SprDaVE]

He mentions Marner being in a tough position in terms of being fully NHL ready right now but fully accepts the reality that he will be given every chance in training camp to earn a spot.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

London would have to allow it, not us.

The London knights? Owned by mark hunter and his brother who is also president and gm (I think)?

That London? Not sure that would be a huge barrier

 

[SprDaVE]

Is Modo still struggling? IIRC when Nylander was there they weren't a good team and even the worse after the Leafs brought Willie over. Maybe as a favour to them they could send Marner over there next year?

That's not going to happen. I don't understand why people think it would ever work. Different rink, different culture, different goals of the teams involved and just away from everything development wise of the Leafs makes the transition so much more complicated.

Can't people accept the fact that it will be the NHL or OHL for Marner? It doesn't have to be so complicated just to get him to play outside the OHL.

He's not going to lose all of his skill just because he may have to play in the OHL for another year.

 

[SprDaVE]

The London knights? Owned by mark hunter and his brother who is also president and gm (I think)?

That London? Not sure that would be a huge barrier

The barrier being that they would much prefer having Marner in London, making that team much better then him not being there? Why would Dale Hunter, or Mark for that matter, want a top prospect to be shipped away in Europe when there's very little incentive for them to do so?

I don't think you thought that one through.

 

[showtime8]

This is the smartest thing that Lou could have said in regards to Marner.

What he did, was set the bar as low as it could go, giving him no expectations and also giving them a ton of options.

From the way it sounds, it's almost like it's a 80% chance he's back with the London Knights next season. BUT, if he has an amazing camp, he could start the season with the Leafs. He's also taking all the pressure off Marner to perform and make the team and live up to the medias expectations of him.

It changes a lot of peoples minds as fans as well. Some people who might have had Marner on their team next year already penciled in, might change their opinion and give the nod to someone else on a full-time basis, like a Parenteau on a 1 year basis.

Very smart move by Lou to establish this now.

 

[X66]

I am a Marincin supporter and thinks he's played WAY better than his image on this forum lol.

In saying that, he still needs to improve and work on his poise with the puck. When he makes a mistake, it's a glaring one. Hopefully that gets addressed moving forward.

 

[Reddaye]

How has Marner's body mass grown this season? I haven't been following things too closely due to life commitments, but my biggest bugbear with him playing in the NHL is his body and frame seemed too slight when we drafted him. I'd be more comfortable with him adding a bit of mass, but if they feel he's ready, who am I to say otherwise?

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

I'm sure the Leafs and the NHL don't want to get into a war with the Canadian Junior Leagues by sending elite prospects to Europe.

 

[Mad Brills*]

That's not going to happen. I don't understand why people think it would ever work. Differentice rink, different culture, different goals of the teams involved and just away from everything development wise of the Leafs makes the transition so much more complicated.

Can't people accept the fact that it will be the NHL or OHL for Marner? It doesn't have to be so complicated just to get him to play outside the OHL.

He's not going to lose all of his skill just because he may have to play in the OHL for another year.

he's outgrown junior hockey.

That's a fact.

Him playing against players 2 years younger in his d+2 year is stupid.

 

[ACC1224]

How has Marner's body mass grown this season? I haven't been following things too closely due to life commitments, but my biggest bugbear with him playing in the NHL is his body and frame seemed too slight when we drafted him. I'd be more comfortable with him adding a bit of mass, but if they feel he's ready, who am I to say otherwise?

Hasn't gotten any bigger from my understanding.

 

[SprDaVE]

he's outgrown junior hockey.

That's a fact.

Him playing against players 2 years younger in his d+2 year is stupid.

He hasn't outgrown it if he isn't NHL ready to me. Since the AHL isn't an option, going back for another year isn't going to kill him.

He's going to have himself to blame, more or less, if he can't earn a spot in training camp. With that talent and drive, he should be able to come in and earn it.

I think he has the skill set to earn a spot next year but if for some reason it doesn't work out, he's clearly not ready for the pro ranks as an elite prospect.

 

[selltrade]

Marner is probably as ready as Nylander was at the beginning of this year. Ready but wont be rushed I believe. Sosh, Hyman, Brown, Nylander, Leivo plus the 1st rounder (Laine, Matthews) is essentially 6 rookies. Add in JVR, Kadri, Holland, Komarov, Bozak as main guys if some are not traded plus vets such as Michalek, Laich, Greening, and maybe Lupul. Hes going to be in tough, and thats without July 1st (Stamkos, PAP resigned?) You've also got Kapanen, Leipsec and AJ knocking on the door. sb fun to watch

 

[indigobuffalo]

I'm sure the Leafs and the NHL don't want to get into a war with the Canadian Junior Leagues by sending elite prospects to Europe.

Given that the Knights are run/owned by the Hunter bros, I would imagine that they would want what's best for the Leafs and not their own interests, as Mark is on our payroll and is beholden to MLSE first and foremost.

If it makes more sense for Marner's development to play in Europe, then that's what will happen.

That being said, I agree with Reddaye who brought up Marner's mass/size.

In my opinion, this is the largest barrier to him playing in the NHL, so if he is under-sized here, wouldn't he be undersized in any European league?

So maybe the OHL is where he ends up, since even if he has outgrown it "skill-wise", the extra year of maturity/growth might be more important...

It's hard to gauge this accurately because there aren't really any precedents. Usually teams just go with the junior teams because no one has the resources to send players overseas and monitor their development.

But we do...

 

[Mad Brills*]

He hasn't outgrown it if he isn't NHL ready to me. Since the AHL isn't an option, going back for another year isn't going to kill him.

He's going to have himself to blame, more or less, if he can't earn a spot in training camp.

I think he has the skill set to earn a spot next year but if for some reason it doesn't work out, he's clearly not ready for the pro ranks as an elite prospect.

ok. He's going to fall into bad habits.

 

[SprDaVE]

ok. He's going to fall into bad habits.

Talk about a myth without any evidence. Why would he fall into 'bad habits' and not just keep working on his game that made him be a cut in training camp anyway?

And why wouldn't he learn bad habits if he goes to Europe, where he's so much further away from your development system, on top of being surrounded by people that don't really owe the Leafs anything in terms of his development.

I'm sure he'll work on the things he needs to work on in order to be able to take the next step. If going back to Junior because he failed to earn a spot makes him develop bad habits... Then we probably have a bigger problem on our hands. Dale Hunter wouldn't let it happen.

I'd have no problems giving him ~12 minutes a night with a bit of PP next year if the plan was for him to take the next step, even if there are weaknesses in his game.

 

[maplehawk]

not surprised they like Marincin.

every team needs solid bottom pairing cost-effective defensemen.

when he plays a simple game he's fine, when he tries to do too much he gets in trouble. this is easy to fix. not every d-man needs to be smooth skating with a great outlet pass - every team needs big-bodied guys to protect the front of the net who chip it off the glass and out.

the fact that he's still very young and will be extremely cost-effective is a huge bonus.

 

[Daisy Jane]

what bad habits would he develop playing in Junior?

 

[bigfreeze]

I'm not sure how much "bigger" Marner will get, but I'd like to see him get "stronger"
Successful players in the NHL despite their small stature; try getting the puck off a Kane or Marchand.

His ability with the puck (and without it) will be much improved under Babcock than in the OHL again.

That's why I think Nylander is being kept with the big club even though he has struggled with his play away from the puck. He continues to learn the system and how to play Centre under Babs rather than dominate the AHL, and that will only help him next season.

 

[bigfreeze]

what bad habits would he develop playing in Junior?

I think when you play on a team that has tremendous puck possession, scores a lot, and wins a ton of games, you don't get the time and opportunity to work on other aspects of the game, like playing without the puck.

Like my previous comment, I believe that's why Nylander hasn't made a huge impact yet 5 on 5 on the Leafs. If you watch him carefully, he is standing around a lot and not moving his feet as much as he should be. He's getting accustomed to playing without the puck, as opposed to being a huge driving force for the Marlies and scoring at a record pace.

That's why I think Marner would be better suited for the Leafs next season, if he shows that he is physically ready. An "NHL summer", as Babs would put it, would be great benefit for him