GDT: Free Agency III - Continues.....

TheProspector

Registered User
Oct 18, 2007
5,339
1,698
Orlando
So what is more likely, that chart missing something, or pretty much every person who watches hockey?

I've said before, the current statistical methods are defiantly an improvement over what has been used in the past, but we're a long, long way from being able to fully evaluate and compare players.

Shot suppression seems to be used as a measure of defensive ability when that's not what it is as all. Its basically Corsi re-jigged. If I have the puck, you can't shoot. So, possession = shot suppression. If there was a way to measure the quality of shots against, that would measure defensive play much better, though still nowhere near perfect.


Not really sure what you're getting at with regards to watching vs the chart. The data meets with my expectations from watching hockey. And I don't think it even is inconsistent with your read of the situation.

FYI, there are existing attempts to solve for shot quality. xga60 (expected goals against per 60min on ice) actually accounts for shot type, distance, angle, rebounds, and whether it was off the rush based on the quantity of each kind of shots allowed while the player is on the ice. I honestly don't know much about it yet.
 

diceman934

Help is on the way.
Jul 31, 2010
17,338
4,149
NHL player factory
Thanks. and that's the thing. I might not like every deal (lol i try to be quiet on these ;) ) but i try not to react to every micro move. it's the macro moves that i think we should be focusing on.

I don't have capfriendly up right now but I still feel that a majority of our yuckiest contracts expire this year or next year, So we're pretty much playing with house money right now at this moment.

You know you have to extend (ideally) the following
2 years: Nylander
3 years: Marner + Matthews.

out of those 3 - Matthews is the obvious "here is your "cheap" long term deal - cheap in quotations because it could easily be anything to a 5-6 year deal for whatever the the cap hit at that time will be and what game economics dictate - but say 6-7ish m). he could be AMAZING as all hell a lot earlier and we give him 8x8.

Nylander + Marner will dictate what we give them. we could bridge them, they could be given Naz-Mo Contracts (cheaper and liveable than what we expected it to be). so when people freak out about "omg, how do we sign them." That's literally a bridge we cross. they'll show us what to pay - and we'll have the cap space to pay it (because again the crap contracts for the most part are gone).

and etc, etc.

Martin's 4 years doesn't bug - because it won't be an issue. 4 years is a long time, and literally anything can happen. (for all we know,he could be part of our core. i likely doubt that happens, but again. anything can happen). this is micro.

Polak's one flipping year - it's such a micro move.

the MACRO moves in my opinion is when they start moving pieces out - that you really have to stop and think about. Stamkos (had he signed here) would have been a Macro move. if we trade Kadri (or JVR or etc). that's a Macro-move. Those are the moves where you should be having the debates, and wondering what's going on, se how things fit.

People might want to cauterwall - but pieces like Marincin, Corrado, Hyman, Sosh, Brown etc - they ALL won't be on the "We're ready to kick ass and take names" Leafs. So depending on who they are moved for (or why they are let go) - those aren't the players we should jump up and down if something affects them. what we SHOULD be saying is: those are the players who better be having the summer of the lives and playing in a way that Babcock goes "How do i send him down? How do I bench them." these little micro obstacles, are in place to make those "bubble-y" guys - macro in nature.


Well explained.

Micro vs Macro

I work with youths and I constantly am telling my Co workers about big deal, little deal..big reaction vs no or little reaction.
 

LeafsFan89

Registered User
Jan 2, 2011
4,683
5,089
It goes to what I said in another thread. People think that Babcock is going to ice the equivalent to 2 lines of rookies... Not all of these players are going to be good enough. I argue that Polak and Martin were signed because they have shown they can play in the NHL. Versus a lot of our rookies have had ups and downs or a lack of NHL experience, or have the potential to be better. Not to mention they need mentoring and time to react and learn.

I agree with Daisy Jane in that most of our bad contracts end within a couple years, and it's more the macro moves we should be concerned about.
 

JMcLeaf

__________
Mar 21, 2010
18,601
19
Russell's agent:

Allain Roy ‏@alroy42 4m4 minutes ago
Reports of Kris Russell turning down any offer from the @MapleLeafs are false. Simply rumors...
 

ViewsFromThe6ix

Zachary on the Attackary
Oct 17, 2013
10,887
4,901
6ix
andersen is a big risk, and signing bad players is an omen that they overvalue the wrong stuff

Are you even a leafs fan? You post on almost every Canadian teams' boards... .

Of course Andersen is a risk. Every trade is. Ask Edmonton and San Jose how they feel about their "risks" in Jones and Talbot.

Martin is a good player.
 

Daisy Jane

everything is gonna be okay!
Jul 2, 2009
70,280
9,323
Stated clearly that he did not turn down any offer from the Leafs.


I love the English language.

Russel hasn't turned down any offer from the Leafs.
but - that doesn't mean the Leafs actually offered him anything either.


can't turn down what was never offered.
 

sxvnert

Registered User
Nov 23, 2015
12,179
7,263
Rielly Wisniewski
Gardiner Zaitsev
Marincin Carrick
Hunwick Polak

A 1/2 yr deal without NTC/NMC would be the max I would offer Wis

Hunwick, Polak, and Marincin become the next wave of trade bait at the deadline.
 

MJ65

Registered User
Jul 12, 2009
16,376
2,233
Toronto
Kevin Paul Dupont ‏@GlobeKPD 2h2 hours ago
Contacted Vesey camp tdy (7/3, 3 pm). With UFA dust settling, Vesey committed to reaching his 8/15 UFA status, selecting his "best fit"
 

Cor

I am a bot
Jun 24, 2012
69,648
35,246
AEF
Hilarious that BUF traded a 3rd round pick for his rights, and less than an hour later, Vesey's agent comes out and said they aren't interested in signing and Vesey will still be going to UFA.

Just hilarious
 

MJ65

Registered User
Jul 12, 2009
16,376
2,233
Toronto
Hilarious that BUF traded a 3rd round pick for his rights, and less than an hour later, Vesey's agent comes out and said they aren't interested in signing and Vesey will still be going to UFA.

Just hilarious

That's desperation - I mean him and his agent do not even want to entertain the thought
 

NarcoPolo

Registered User
Jul 16, 2012
7,191
248
So is there still a high chance that we're signing Russell? Why are we even in the middle of it..
 

Mad Brills*

Guest
So is there still a high chance that we're signing Russell? Why are we even in the middle of it..

With polak in the fold, and basically no cap room once they sign the RFAs until october, I say no.

They have 8 waiver eligible dmen signed for 2016-17.
 

NarcoPolo

Registered User
Jul 16, 2012
7,191
248
With polak in the fold, and basically no cap room once they sign the RFAs until october, I say no.

They have 8 waiver eligible dmen signed for 2016-17.

I really hope not. Would rather give more minutes to a guy like carrick and see what he can do
 

lastnotice

Registered User
Jun 23, 2010
170
0
Hilarious that BUF traded a 3rd round pick for his rights, and less than an hour later, Vesey's agent comes out and said they aren't interested in signing and Vesey will still be going to UFA.

Just hilarious

The thread about Vesey in the Buffalo forum is also hilarious! So much denial!
 

MJ65

Registered User
Jul 12, 2009
16,376
2,233
Toronto
General Fanager
‏@generalfanager
Roman Polak (#Leafs)
1 yr @ $2.25M

$2.25 is a good deal to me - people are making fuss for nothing

General Fanager ‏@generalfanager 9m9 minutes ago
With Polak, #Leafs are an est. $594,084 over the cap (13F/7D/2G) but have flexibility with potential LTIR options.
 
Last edited:

Mad Brills*

Guest
and that close the door on russell, unless he takes a 1 year 2 million deal.
 

Mad Brills*

Guest
Do we really need him - I don't think if the Leafs are even pursuing him

nope, they don't. It's clear that with polak signed he's not coming here.
 

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