Forward Wins Above Average This Season

[NHL WAR]

Some of you may remember my 2017-18 WAR leaders thread last fall. I have been tinkering with the formula and values all season. One of the major differences is the incorporation of XG. Pretty happy with the formula for forwards now. Plugged the stats from this season in ( all data via Corsica) and these are the results. Keep in mind these are wins over an AVERAGE forward.... I haven't factored in replacement level yet. I added in the players points at time of data retrieval and the difference between their point rank and WAA rank for comparison. Let me know any questions you have over the formula or feel free to ask for a specific player or teams WAA. Without further ado, here are the top 50 forwards in WAA so far this season:

Player	WAA	WAA RANK	P	P RANK	DIFF
JOHNNY.GAUDREAU	6.128512221	1	67	4	3
SIDNEY.CROSBY	5.362945161	2	60	13	11
NIKITA.KUCHEROV	5.280678949	3	80	1	-2
JOHN.TAVARES	5.064644295	4	54	19	15
ARTEMI.PANARIN	4.861820101	5	61	9	4
BRAYDEN.POINT	4.515709673	6	65	5	-1
CONNOR.MCDAVID	4.492383551	7	72	2	-5
DAVID.PASTRNAK	4.22800545	8	61	10	2
JAKE.GUENTZEL	4.152420139	9	50	28	19
SEAN.MONAHAN	4.035372228	10	56	17	7
MITCH.MARNER	4.008122613	11	60	12	1
STEVEN.STAMKOS	3.949058578	12	61	11	-1
AUSTON.MATTHEWS	3.869812092	13	45	48	35
PATRICE.BERGERON	3.523106519	14	46	47	33
ELIAS.PETTERSSON	3.477212845	15	48	37	22
MARK.STONE	3.390702975	16	50	30	14
RYAN.O'REILLY	3.38217774	17	50	32	15
TIMO.MEIER	3.31813091	18	42	61	43
LEON.DRAISAITL	3.25986298	19	63	6	-13
NATHAN.MACKINNON	3.242308186	20	63	8	-12
BRAD.MARCHAND	3.193304987	21	57	15	-6
EVANDER.KANE	3.17269938	22	47	39	17
JOE.PAVELSKI	3.150342164	23	46	45	22
SEBASTIAN.AHO	3.147294103	24	52	22	-2
TOMAS.HERTL	3.065915985	25	45	51	26
MATT.DUCHENE	3.059592806	26	45	50	24
JEFF.SKINNER	3.030674388	27	46	44	17
PATRICK.KANE	2.951518802	28	68	3	-25
CAM.ATKINSON	2.907013342	29	50	27	-2
ELIAS.LINDHOLM	2.776049336	30	51	23	-7
JACK.EICHEL	2.703082453	31	51	26	-5
TYLER.SEGUIN	2.573144023	32	49	35	3
VIKTOR.ARVIDSSON	2.541931647	33	28	122	89
TOMAS.TATAR	2.504676418	34	39	70	36
BRENDAN.GALLAGHER	2.376538312	35	34	88	53
MATTHEW.TKACHUK	2.374989921	36	48	38	2
LOGAN.COUTURE	2.363713866	37	47	40	3
PHILLIP.DANAULT	2.361665416	38	36	82	44
MIKKO.RANTANEN	2.313485943	39	63	7	-32
GUSTAV.NYQUIST	2.269899893	40	44	52	12
ALEX.OVECHKIN	2.239740593	41	57	14	-27
DYLAN.LARKIN	2.161235373	42	43	57	15
RYAN.JOHANSEN	2.145086411	43	44	54	11
ALEX.TUCH	2.11802883	44	38	72	28
CLAUDE.GIROUX	2.087347078	45	53	21	-24
MATHEW.BARZAL	2.072003948	46	47	41	-5
FILIP.FORSBERG	2.071046599	47	28	116	69
MARK.SCHEIFELE	1.965360429	48	54	20	-28
CHRIS.KREIDER	1.934799052	49	42	60	11
PIERRE-LUC.DUBOIS	1.910724547	50	43	58	8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

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[NHL WAR]

Also of note, the bottom 10 in WAA include big contract veterans such as Ryan Kesler, Justin Abdelkader, Jeff Carter, James Neal and Milan Lucic.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Does the WAR of the lines predict CF% ?

if a Leafs line of WAR 6 played a shift of a WAR of 3, would the CF% (over time) be over 50% ?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Can you make a list of the top 20 Value players ? WAR/AAV.

 

[leeroggy]

Only one of those names lifted the Stanley Cup this year and he was the MVP of the playoffs . . . is this solely a list of forwards? Or do defensemen basically have no chance statistically to make this list?

 

[WarriorOfGandhi]

Only one of those names lifted the Stanley Cup this year and he was the MVP of the playoffs . . . is this solely a list of forwards? Or do defensemen basically have no chance statistically to make this list?

it was too much to read the very first word of the title?

 

[NHL WAR]

Only one of those names lifted the Stanley Cup this year and he was the MVP of the playoffs . . . is this solely a list of forwards? Or do defensemen basically have no chance statistically to make this list?

Yes, Ryan O Reilly rightfully performs very well in WAR because it acknowledges his superb faceoff skills, discipline and two way play. This is solely a list of forwards and an outdated one at that. If you are interested there is an updated thread.

 

[NHL WAR]

Does the WAR of the lines predict CF% ?

if a Leafs line of WAR 6 played a shift of a WAR of 3, would the CF% (over time) be over 50% ?

Can you make a list of the top 20 Value players ? WAR/AAV.

I would expect the 6 WAR line to out-Corsi the 3 WAR line over time. It isn't a gurantee though, as the 3 WAR line could have earned that WAR mostly through puck possession and the 6 WAR line could be puck chasers that are just better finishers.

Sometime in July I will take a look at all the free agent signings and how justified their contracts are compared to their WAR. I can definitely do a top WAR/ AAV list then, too