Forward Wins Above Average This Season

  1. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    Some of you may remember my 2017-18 WAR leaders thread last fall. I have been tinkering with the formula and values all season. One of the major differences is the incorporation of XG. Pretty happy with the formula for forwards now. Plugged the stats from this season in ( all data via Corsica) and these are the results. Keep in mind these are wins over an AVERAGE forward.... I haven't factored in replacement level yet. I added in the players points at time of data retrieval and the difference between their point rank and WAA rank for comparison. Let me know any questions you have over the formula or feel free to ask for a specific player or teams WAA. Without further ado, here are the top 50 forwards in WAA so far this season:

    PlayerWAAWAA RANKPP RANKDIFF
    JOHNNY.GAUDREAU6.12851222116743
    SIDNEY.CROSBY5.3629451612601311
    NIKITA.KUCHEROV5.2806789493801-2
    JOHN.TAVARES5.0646442954541915
    ARTEMI.PANARIN4.86182010156194
    BRAYDEN.POINT4.5157096736655-1
    CONNOR.MCDAVID4.4923835517722-5
    DAVID.PASTRNAK4.22800545861102
    JAKE.GUENTZEL4.1524201399502819
    SEAN.MONAHAN4.0353722281056177
    MITCH.MARNER4.0081226131160121
    STEVEN.STAMKOS3.949058578126111-1
    AUSTON.MATTHEWS3.86981209213454835
    PATRICE.BERGERON3.52310651914464733
    ELIAS.PETTERSSON3.47721284515483722
    MARK.STONE3.39070297516503014
    RYAN.O'REILLY3.3821777417503215
    TIMO.MEIER3.3181309118426143
    LEON.DRAISAITL3.2598629819636-13
    NATHAN.MACKINNON3.24230818620638-12
    BRAD.MARCHAND3.193304987215715-6
    EVANDER.KANE3.1726993822473917
    JOE.PAVELSKI3.15034216423464522
    SEBASTIAN.AHO3.147294103245222-2
    TOMAS.HERTL3.06591598525455126
    MATT.DUCHENE3.05959280626455024
    JEFF.SKINNER3.03067438827464417
    PATRICK.KANE2.95151880228683-25
    CAM.ATKINSON2.907013342295027-2
    ELIAS.LINDHOLM2.776049336305123-7
    JACK.EICHEL2.703082453315126-5
    TYLER.SEGUIN2.5731440233249353
    VIKTOR.ARVIDSSON2.541931647332812289
    TOMAS.TATAR2.50467641834397036
    BRENDAN.GALLAGHER2.37653831235348853
    MATTHEW.TKACHUK2.3749899213648382
    LOGAN.COUTURE2.3637138663747403
    PHILLIP.DANAULT2.36166541638368244
    MIKKO.RANTANEN2.31348594339637-32
    GUSTAV.NYQUIST2.26989989340445212
    ALEX.OVECHKIN2.239740593415714-27
    DYLAN.LARKIN2.16123537342435715
    RYAN.JOHANSEN2.14508641143445411
    ALEX.TUCH2.1180288344387228
    CLAUDE.GIROUX2.087347078455321-24
    MATHEW.BARZAL2.072003948464741-5
    FILIP.FORSBERG2.071046599472811669
    MARK.SCHEIFELE1.965360429485420-28
    CHRIS.KREIDER1.93479905249426011
    PIERRE-LUC.DUBOIS1.9107245475043588
     
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  2. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    Also of note, the bottom 10 in WAA include big contract veterans such as Ryan Kesler, Justin Abdelkader, Jeff Carter, James Neal and Milan Lucic.
     
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  3. HamiltonNHL

    HamiltonNHL Parity era hockey is just luck

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    Does the WAR of the lines predict CF% ?

    if a Leafs line of WAR 6 played a shift of a WAR of 3, would the CF% (over time) be over 50% ?
     
  4. HamiltonNHL

    HamiltonNHL Parity era hockey is just luck

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    Can you make a list of the top 20 Value players ? WAR/AAV.
     
  5. leeroggy

    leeroggy Registered User

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    Only one of those names lifted the Stanley Cup this year and he was the MVP of the playoffs . . . is this solely a list of forwards? Or do defensemen basically have no chance statistically to make this list?
     
  6. WarriorOfGandhi

    WarriorOfGandhi Was saying Boo-urns

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    it was too much to read the very first word of the title?
     
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  7. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    Yes, Ryan O Reilly rightfully performs very well in WAR because it acknowledges his superb faceoff skills, discipline and two way play. This is solely a list of forwards and an outdated one at that. If you are interested there is an updated thread.
     
  8. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    I would expect the 6 WAR line to out-Corsi the 3 WAR line over time. It isn't a gurantee though, as the 3 WAR line could have earned that WAR mostly through puck possession and the 6 WAR line could be puck chasers that are just better finishers.

    Sometime in July I will take a look at all the free agent signings and how justified their contracts are compared to their WAR. I can definitely do a top WAR/ AAV list then, too:thumbu:
     

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