Prospect Info: FLYguy3911's 3rd Annual (and last?) Draft Rankings - 101+ Skaters

[FLYguy3911]

Here it is.

• I have spent less time watching prospects and more time collecting relevant data and trying to find edges that way so keep that in mind with these rankings. For detailed scouting refer to @Magua and @BigToe .
• I only ranked first year eligible skaters. The few re-entries I would have interest in are listed at the bottom of the rankings.
• This is a general ranking and not a Flyers specific draft board. I am purely BPA.
• Went liberal with the tiers this year. Wouldn't sweat guys at the end or beginning of tiers. I tried to make it quick and painless. I see a clear top 2 and then a bunch of guys I think have top 6 F/top 3 D upside if things go well. The second tier is why I am #TeamTradeBack unless one of the top 2 are on the board. After 50 pick a name out of a hat.
• Yes after cautioning about taking defensemen in the top 5, I have 5 in my top 10. I still would lean forward if all is equal, I just think those five are a little cleaner to project into top roles. Nemec is my clear preference at that position, but I don't see a whole lot separating them which is why I have the other 4 stacked. I also found it much easier to pick out defensemen I could see a pathway to success later in the draft than forwards.
• I believe in track records. Many of the guys I am highest on have produced among the best in their age group for multiple levels.

To the board....


<iframe src=""></iframe>

Guys I am higher on than consensus:

Frank Nazar
Brad Lambert
Denton Mateychuk
Liam Öhgren
Noah Östlund
Jagger Firkus
Lane Hutson
Gleb Trikozov
Filip Mesar
Seamus Casey

Essentially as an outline to my rankings I looked at three things - Tools, Production, and Age. Only two guys were in the 90th percentile for all three - Denton Mateychuk and Gleb Trikozov (Kevin Korchinski just missed).

(Hopefully it embedded.)

hold.

Click to read more...

 

[freakydallas13]

I appreciate you posting your list, going to throw on some tea and take a gander through it.

 

[freakydallas13]

Interesting that you have Ostlund ahead of Savoie. And Mateychuk that high, are you banking on his late birthday? He's a interesting one to me, I like the way he walks the blueline in the offensive zone; his offensive game (obviously) looks enticing.

 

[DancingPanther]

Trade everything for Rutger. Jagger is a fine consolation

 

[Magua]

For detailed scouting refer to @Magua

 

[BigToe]

Wow there’s so many surprises in there

 

[usahockey22flyers]

Wow this is really easy to read. I’m going to have this open while I watch tonight.

THANK YOU!

 

[FlyguyOX]

Here it is.

• I have spent less time watching prospects and more time collecting relevant data and trying to find edges that way so keep that in mind with these rankings. For detailed scouting refer to @Magua and @BigToe .
• I only ranked first year eligible skaters. The few re-entries I would have interest in are listed at the bottom of the rankings.
• This is a general ranking and not a Flyers specific draft board. I am purely BPA.
• Went liberal with the tiers this year. Wouldn't sweat guys at the end or beginning of tiers. I tried to make it quick and painless. I see a clear top 2 and then a bunch of guys I think have top 6 F/top 3 D upside if things go well. The second tier is why I am #TeamTradeBack unless one of the top 2 are on the board. After 50 pick a name out of a hat.
• Yes after cautioning about taking defensemen in the top 5, I have 5 in my top 10. I still would lean forward if all is equal, I just think those five are a little cleaner to project into top roles. Nemec is my clear preference at that position, but I don't see a whole lot separating them which is why I have the other 4 stacked. I also found it much easier to pick out defensemen I could see a pathway to success later in the draft than forwards.
• I believe in track records. Many of the guys I am highest on have produced among the best in their age group for multiple levels.

To the board....


<iframe src=""></iframe>

Guys I am higher on than consensus:

Frank Nazar
Brad Lambert
Denton Mateychuk
Liam Öhgren
Noah Östlund
Jagger Firkus
Lane Hutson
Gleb Trikozov
Filip Mesar
Seamus Casey

Essentially as an outline to my rankings I looked at three things - Tools, Production, and Age. Only two guys were in the 90th percentile for all three - Denton Mateychuk and Gleb Trikozov (Kevin Korchinski just missed).

(Hopefully it embedded.)

hold.

Just going to say it - you're way out to town on Lambert.
Here's a good scouting article from my friend, fantasy league commissioner, former coworker, and former HockeyFutures regional scout:

How To Look At Brad Lambert In The 2022 Draft

How To Look At Brad Lambert In The 2022 Draft June 30, 2022 by Brian Fogarty Brad Lambert has long been a dynamic and divisive prospect for the 2022 NHL dr...

hockeyprophets.com

He also provides his rankings on that site, too.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Interesting that you have Ostlund ahead of Savoie. And Mateychuk that high, are you banking on his late birthday? He's a interesting one to me, I like the way he walks the blueline in the offensive zone; his offensive game (obviously) looks enticing.

Yeah that could look stupid in time. I originally had him stacked with Lambert, but a couple statistical items gave me pause (he's good not great). I like Savoie's skills, I just think Ostlund is smarter and his best days are ahead of him. I wanted to fade @BigToe badly, but these aren't the types I bet against. He's slight but I look at that as a positive. As he fills out that stride should become more powerful. Just an unreal passer and play connector and should stay in the middle.

re: Mateychuk

To my Cutter Gauthier point yesterday, you are never not noticing him. He's involved in every play. He averaged like 150 puck touches a game. That is just insane involvement and one of the simplest and maybe most telling stats I think there is. You need to be smart, aware, and well positioned at all times to achieve that. Just tons of give and goes all over the ice. You think of centers as play connectors but he's the defensive version. Does he have star level skill? Probably not, but I just don't see anyway he's not a really good top 4 defenseman in the NHL. One of the youngest players in the class too and has performed at every level.

Just going to say it - you're way out to town on Lambert.
Here's a good scouting article from my friend, fantasy league commissioner, former coworker, and former HockeyFutures regional scout:

How To Look At Brad Lambert In The 2022 Draft

How To Look At Brad Lambert In The 2022 Draft June 30, 2022 by Brian Fogarty Brad Lambert has long been a dynamic and divisive prospect for the 2022 NHL dr...

hockeyprophets.com

He also provides his rankings on that site, too.

Yeah if you look at his draft year production, it's not good. I think it is well know by now.

However if you look at the year prior, Lundell and Barkov are the only players that have more points in their D-1 season in Liiga.

In his D-2 he is the top scorer ever in the Finnish U20 level for such players. The new #1 in this class wasn't even as productive in the same league in his D-1.

5 points in 2 WJC games this year. PPG internationally mostly playing up a year. Let's not pretend this guy is incapable of producing at all. If I thought he was can't miss I'd have him with Wright and Cooley. I have my reservations, but the kid is really talented and as I said yesterday, at minimum you should have one of the best puck carriers and transition guys in the league.

 

[iceman42]

I know this is a bit early and hard to judge but any of the Russians who might fall because of the Fedotov news?

 

[FlyguyOX]

Yeah that could look stupid in time. I originally had him stacked with Lambert, but a couple statistical items gave me pause (he's good not great). I like Savoie's skills, I just think Ostlund is smarter and his best days are ahead of him. I wanted to fade @BigToe badly, but these aren't the types I bet against. He's slight but I look at that as a positive. As he fills out that stride should become more powerful. Just an unreal passer and play connector and should stay in the middle.

re: Mateychuk

To my Cutter Gauthier point yesterday, you are never not noticing him. He's involved in every play. He averaged like 150 puck touches a game. That is just insane involvement and one of the simplest and maybe most telling stats I think there is. You need to be smart, aware, and well positioned at all times to achieve that. Just tons of give and goes all over the ice. You think of centers as play connectors but he's the defensive version. Does he have star level skill? Probably not, but I just don't see anyway he's not a really good top 4 defenseman in the NHL. One of the youngest players in the class too and has performed at every level.



Yeah if you look at his draft year production, it's not good. I think it is well know by now.

However if you look at the year prior, Lundell and Barkov are the only players that have more points in their D-1 season in Liiga.

In his D-2 he is the top scorer ever in the Finnish U20 level for such players. The new #1 in this class wasn't even as productive in the same league in his D-1.

5 points in 2 WJC games this year. PPG internationally mostly playing up a year. Let's not pretend this guy is incapable of producing at all. If I thought he was can't miss I'd have him with Wright and Cooley. I have my reservations, but the kid is really talented and as I said yesterday, at minimum you should have one of the best puck carriers and transition guys in the league.

One of the best in the league seems like a bit of hyperbole. I think at worst he's a bottom six, high speed penalty killer. Thinking Michael Grabner.

 

[Chuck Downie]

Here it is.

• I have spent less time watching prospects and more time collecting relevant data and trying to find edges that way so keep that in mind with these rankings. For detailed scouting refer to @Magua and @BigToe .
• I only ranked first year eligible skaters. The few re-entries I would have interest in are listed at the bottom of the rankings.
• This is a general ranking and not a Flyers specific draft board. I am purely BPA.
• Went liberal with the tiers this year. Wouldn't sweat guys at the end or beginning of tiers. I tried to make it quick and painless. I see a clear top 2 and then a bunch of guys I think have top 6 F/top 3 D upside if things go well. The second tier is why I am #TeamTradeBack unless one of the top 2 are on the board. After 50 pick a name out of a hat.
• Yes after cautioning about taking defensemen in the top 5, I have 5 in my top 10. I still would lean forward if all is equal, I just think those five are a little cleaner to project into top roles. Nemec is my clear preference at that position, but I don't see a whole lot separating them which is why I have the other 4 stacked. I also found it much easier to pick out defensemen I could see a pathway to success later in the draft than forwards.
• I believe in track records. Many of the guys I am highest on have produced among the best in their age group for multiple levels.

To the board....


<iframe src=""></iframe>

Guys I am higher on than consensus:

Frank Nazar
Brad Lambert
Denton Mateychuk
Liam Öhgren
Noah Östlund
Jagger Firkus
Lane Hutson
Gleb Trikozov
Filip Mesar
Seamus Casey

Essentially as an outline to my rankings I looked at three things - Tools, Production, and Age. Only two guys were in the 90th percentile for all three - Denton Mateychuk and Gleb Trikozov (Kevin Korchinski just missed).

(Hopefully it embedded.)

hold.

Nice job!

 

[BigToe]

One of the best in the league seems like a bit of hyperbole. I think at worst he's a bottom six, high speed penalty killer. Thinking Michael Grabner.

How much have you watched of him and what do you think his ceiling is?

 

[FLYguy3911]

One of the best in the league seems like a bit of hyperbole. I think at worst he's a bottom six, high speed penalty killer. Thinking Michael Grabner.

Nope. He's a phenomenal puck carrier.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

Trading down to nab Lambert + a little more of a higher floor guy in the mid first would just make too much sense for Fletcher. Might require a little too much thinking too

 

[FLYguy3911]

You could probably walk away from this draft with 2 of Nazar, Lambert, Ostlund or one of the "second tier" defensemen if you really wanted to.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Nope. He's a phenomenal puck carrier.



View attachment 565391

And I bet for every successful transition rush he has five where he turns the puck over trying to deke through multiple players.
If I'm taking a high risk player then I'd rather go with one of the russians, specifically Miroshnichenko

 

[landsbergfan]

Gustafson too low, hard to trust any of the rankings as a result

 

[FLYguy3911]

Gustafson too low, hard to trust any of the rankings as a result

I almost didn't rank him completely.

 

[DancingPanther]

Nope. He's a phenomenal puck carrier.



View attachment 565391

What exactly is this stat tracking?

 

[FLYguy3911]

What exactly is this stat tracking?

Combined Exits and Entries controlled from the u18s last year.

 

[DancingPanther]

Combined Exits and Entries controlled from the u18s last year.

Either one in any capacity? Or is it specifically when a controlled entry is carried through the NZ on the same players stick and into the offensive zone as a controlled entry?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Either one in any capacity? Or is it specifically when a controlled entry is carried through the NZ on the same players stick and into the offensive zone as a controlled entry?

The former.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Almost everyone's bottom outcomes are non-NHL players, but if you wanted me to describe an NHL level player poor outcome for Lambert, I wouldn't point to a goal scorer like Grabner at all. That would look an awful lot like "bust" era Jack Hughes to me.

(I hope I don't have to say this, but I did not think Hughes was a bust. I'm just talking about attributes, both positive and negative.)

 

[DancingPanther]

The former.

Appreciate you.

I'm all in on Lambert

Almost everyone's bottom outcomes are non-NHL players, but if you wanted me to describe an NHL level player poor outcome for Lambert, I wouldn't point to a goal scorer like Grabner at all. That would look an awful lot like "bust" era Jack Hughes to me.

(I hope I don't have to say this, but I did not think Hughes was a bust. I'm just talking about attributes, both positive and negative.)

Jack is such an animal. I know you know this, and no you didn't have to explain yourself, but I like watching Jack. That's it. That's the post.