I had reply for this post a while ago but lost it when I loaded a new page. Blame it on the 3 day bender.
Hopefully these aren't just regurgitated responses from the writeups.
1.) It's hard to find Brisson footage, but could you elaborate on what you think his realistic upside is? What are the limitations to his skillset? Why do you think consensus opinion lags on him -- is it just USHL factor?
Realistic upside? 2C / PP1. Hard to project more than that because of the lack of track record, but I wouldn't bet against a kid as smart and as skilled as he is.
Limitations? Foot speed is average and I don't think the stride is overly athletic looking. Stride seems a bit short, but he plays fast through puck distribution. I don't see him being a high volume carry-in attacker, but he should be able to get his teammates easy entries. His play away from the puck in the DZ can be poked at as well.
Yeah I think the USHL factor is at play. He had no hype coming into the year. It's rare for a non-USNTDP USHL guy to be a top 20 consensus player. I think back to Kyle Connor who had three great years, u18s, and Hlinka and still went 17th. Granted that was a great draft, but he should have went sooner. Brisson also played for a great team and didn't standout
that much statistically from his peers. From a scouting perspective I don't think it's close, but some do.
They still have USA WJAC games up if you wanted to take a peak (warning: very Junior Hockey-ish commentary).
https://www.hockeycanada.ca/en-ca/n...-junior-a/2019/stats/schedule?tournament=true
2.) Perreault has all the skill in the world. But do you worry that he truly is as outlier bad as a 2-way player as his stats indicate? I was expecting to love the skill/hate the player, but the one game I saw it wasn't anything like that. 1 game does not negate bad ones I didn't see, but I had none of the hockey sense red flags I imagined I'd see. His effort/positioning was fine in that game. Good at times. Do you think Sarnia was a perfect storm of shit defense -- because defense can be contagious both ways?
His play away from the puck ran hot and cold when I saw him. Some of that may have been confirmation bias as I also expected not to like him, but he's so damn good with the puck, both in the OZ and in transition as a puck carrier, that I don't think it will matter. And yes I don't think the Sarnia lack of structure helped (shoutout Derian Hatcher).
I'm usually leery of guys that have more goals than assists, but he's an excellent playmaker. I saw a game where he had 3 passes from the goal line to the slot. That's not normal. The shot is his calling card, but he can set up grade A chances for linemates as well.
3.) In a draft with quite a few mediocre physically tooled players, Gunler's tools pop as a versatile, rangy, possible power forward. Did you find he had hockey sense issues relating to his purported inconsistencies? (Amirov also stands out physically to me as a skater and puck handler, but he won't be there, which saddens me. He seems like he'd be one of "My Guys").
Admittedly I haven't seen enough of Gunler but Eliteprospects had an article up the other day highlighting his strengths and weaknesses. They gave him one of the higher hockey sense marks in the draft, but pointed out his game-to-game inconsistencies boiling it down to three issues- skating (lack of separating gear), puck fumbles (needs a touch before shooting allowing goalies to recover), and unwillingness to engage physically (poor body positioning when contact is initiated). The shot is obvious though. That is an easy, powerful release.
Yeah Amirov is really good. I flipped him and Perreault at the last minute because I think Perreault has more scoring upside and I think the CHL to NHL transition is easier to project, but it's hard not to see Amirov becoming a good two-way winger.
4.) Rough assessment of Bourque is he's a lesser Jarvis. He's very cleverly skilled. But how much do you worry about his pace? I don't just mean skating. Jarvis, for example, is no burner -- but he can burst quick and plays quick when the situations calls for it (he's got a little Artemi in him, but that's another story). My first impression was Bourque not only played slow (gliding through NZ, not challenging defenders, usually waiting for help, etc.), but his all-around mobility was clunky too. One is acceptable for projecting, but both is hard.
It's a concern for sure but I tend to bet on smart/skill figuring out their skating issues than fast players figuring out their skill/hockey sense issues. I do have a couple theories though. 1) His usage was extreme for a forward so I think there was some corner cutting and 2) his best quality is his ability to draw in defenders toward him, opening up space for his teammates, before dishing so I think naturally playing slow is the easiest way to invite pressure. That doesn't explain everything but I do have
some optimism it can improve at an appropriate level relative to his peers. His skating did standout in short spurts at the Hlinka when he was playing a limited role in a faster paced environment. There is some projection but I think he'll get to an acceptable level. I'm hoping I can catch his games from the weekend to see if any progress was made over the last 6 months.
I had Bourque around 20 for much of the year due to the concerns you laid out, but I kept sliding him up that tier due to what I perceived his floor to be. I think he's one of the safest players in the draft. An offensive leaning center with high end smarts and playmaking and he added the shot element this season. Some of the public projection models love him too. One such model gave him the 4th best odds of becoming a full-time NHLer behind Lafreniere, Holtz, and Raymond. Obviously my placement has a bit of an analytical slant.
Plus he looks like Carter Hart.
5.) Wallinder.....higher variance Broberg?
Yeah in that mold. Jurmo too. The physical tools don't quite add up to the on-ice production, but he's quite talented. I found he didn't quite have the best feel for the ice at times and that kind of left me wanting more, but he did show it in spurts. I'm not 100% convinced he's a first round talent, but he is young, talented, and he seemed to hold his own against men.
6.) Do you think Mercer has a lower ceiling than others you ranked in that range? No game footage for him, but his toolkit seems more middle 6 support piece.
I agree. That's my hunch. The dip in production after the trade was concerning and I hate when you have questions like that about 3rd year junior players. He has great hands, and scoring touch, and he's a pretty underrated playmaker, but the skating probably limits his impact. I think he has really good complimentary skills, but I'm not sure he's the type that can drive a line.
7.) Which realistic targets would you groan the most at Blech Bleh taking?
Why do I have a feeling I am going to bump this some day?
I think someone asked this the other day in another thread and my first reaction was Holloway. Solid, meat and potatoes, straight-line guy. Pretty good at everything. Great at nothing. He's fine, but doesn't really add another dynamic to the present-day roster.
Zary - Just not a big fan. Good shot, but lacks skating and high end playmaking skills.
Foerster - Big shot, but not a great skater and I'm not entirely convinced the scoring translates.
Neighbours - I'm not sure he's getting first round buzz, but I imagine he goes in the top 40 and I don't want him in any round.
Greig - I don't see high-end skill.
Evangelista - More of the same.
Probably any defensemen but particularly these:
Guhle - Good defender, great skater, but you just can't take another LHD early unless they have impact skills or the versatility to play the right side.
Schneider - Nope.
O'Rourke - I don't see it.
Barron - So many red flags.
