Confirmed with Link: Flyers Sign Noah Cates To Two Year Contract - Avoid Arbitration ($2.625M AAV)

[Tripod]

Cates 100% should not be playing on the top 2 lines and certainly not with our best winger.

But here we are.

Weird that dead wants to get back to Cates after going off rails to go to Torts, only to be put in his place.

 

[Magua]

The Flyers are consistently horrid at evaluating centers and defensemen. Luckily, those aren't terribly important.

 

[deadhead]

Since we're now relying on McCurdy, doesn't he have a total value metric?
How does Cates and Frost compare?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Since we're now relying on McCurdy, doesn't he have a total value metric?
How does Cates and Frost compare?

I absolutely do not want to submit to any one metric as Gospel. But since you asked...

Last year was +0.7 sG for Cates and +0.9 sG for Frost. Both good but not great.

Farabee was a -3.0 since he's a pretty agnostic player in the Holy War to give some scale.

 

[deadhead]

I absolutely do not want to submit to any one metric as Gospel. But since you asked...

Last year was +0.7 sG for Cates and +0.9 sG for Frost. Both good but not great.

Farabee was a -3.0 since he's a pretty agnostic player in the Holy War to give some scale.

Yeah, that's about right, they're complementary, different skill sets, about the same quality, both unproven at this point.

Farabee looks like a different player so far, guess it helps not to have neck surgery before the season.

 

[Cody Webster]

Cates is at center b/c the alternative is Laughton.

He's not a scorer, but his xGF/60 was similar to Frost when both became full-time starters at center last year. This year he leads the team in xGF/60 after 4 games with a ridiculous 4.55.

How can a bad offensive player create scoring chances when he's on the ice? Because Cates' strength is his great hands and instincts, he's really good at puck retrieval. Putting Brink with him gives his line a playmaker.

Why are you bringing up Frost? No one mentioned Frost at all.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Just shows you how you coach depends on your talent.

Not really. Sometimes how a coach coaches depends on their personality and intellect. Tortorella is a self-absorbed asshole who is too stupid and lazy to evolve. So he deliberately reduces the talent level on the team, because he thinks talented play is bad and because he personally enjoys harming players.

 

[Striiker]

"Too lazy to evolve?"

He doesn't even coach half the time.

Forget evolving... he's too lazy to even do what he was doing two decades ago.

 

[eramosat]

I appreciate Cates getting time with more offensively gifted forwards. He's one of the best young players the Flyers have, and seeing what else he can contribute beyond solid defense, plus more than solid offensive contributions points on lower line duties, is a completely worthwhile goal for a rebuilding team.

And if he helps them lose games by being placed too high in the lineup? Well, Flyers can make that work too.

Line juggling will probably continue for quite some time, and Cates is a part of it.

 

[deadhead]

I appreciate Cates getting time with more offensively gifted forwards. He's one of the best young players the Flyers have, and seeing what else he can contribute beyond solid defense, plus more than solid offensive contributions points on lower line duties, is a completely worthwhile goal for a rebuilding team.

And if he helps them lose games by being placed too high in the lineup? Well, Flyers can make that work too.

Line juggling will probably continue for quite some time, and Cates is a part of it.

Let's see, if we're rebuilding, does that mean we experiment with young players in different roles?
Nah, after one season we know exactly what a player can and can't do.

One reason for line shuffling is to figure out who has chemistry, and it usually comes down to pairs with the 3rd forward juggled between lines, Saw that in the past with G and Couts.
Frost - Tippett
Couts - Atkinson
Cates - Brink
are possibilities, with TK, Farabee, Laughton (Foerster) as "floaters?"

 

[Beef Invictus]

Let's see, if we're rebuilding, does that mean we experiment with young players in different roles?
Nah, after one season we know exactly what a player can and can't do.

Since this isn't remotely what the team is doing, I don't know why you'd even post it as a defense.

 

[VladDrag]

Since we're now relying on McCurdy, doesn't he have a total value metric?
How does Cates and Frost compare?

I missed this. The graphic I posted was a ‘total value’ metric. I just started subbing to him, but the only total value metric I have seen is his Synthetic Goal (sG) model, new to this year. He uses 5v5 shot rates, PP shots for, PK shots against, impacts on goal scoring (setting and finishing ability) impact on team penalties.

He computes these and places them on that graph.

 

[deadhead]

If you take that chart seriously, Cates and Frost are equivalent, and Poehling and Hathaway are two of our best forwards so far.

Which is good, we want Hathaway to be a metric's darling and have some GM fall in love with him.

 

[VladDrag]

If you take that chart seriously, Cates and Frost are equivalent, and Poehling and Hathaway are two of our best forwards so far.

In terms of effectiveness, yeah sure. But how they are getting there is the difference, that’s the nuanced discussion we are having here. They are both dairly neutral. Cates is getting to that effectiveness through exceptional defense and exceptionally poor offense and Frost is getting there thru slightly positive defense and neutral offense.

I hate how he has those 1st,2nd,3rd,4th line demarcations. The fact is that they are deployed in a certain way, and their sG is based on their individual circumstances. That’s descriptive, and you can’t use those values to say player x would preform in a top line role. I think those lines should say something different, some combination of ‘excellent, good, average, poor, bad’.

Which is good, we want Hathaway to be a metric's darling and have some GM fall in love with him.

Hathaway has always been a metrics darling. He’s a quality bottom 6 player and has been for a number of years. He usually brings defensive value. Same with Poehling. He’s been very good defensively and does bring some offensive ability as well.

 

[deadhead]

In terms of effectiveness, yeah sure. But how they are getting there is the difference, that’s the nuanced discussion we are having here. They are both dairly neutral. Cates is getting to that effectiveness through exceptional defense and exceptionally poor offense and Frost is getting there thru slightly positive defense and neutral offense.

I hate how he has those 1st,2nd,3rd,4th line demarcations. The fact is that they are deployed in a certain way, and their sG is based on their individual circumstances. That’s descriptive, and you can’t use those values to say player x would preform in a top line role. I think those lines should say something different, some combination of ‘excellent, good, average, poor, bad’.


Hathaway has always been a metrics darling. He’s a quality bottom 6 player and has been for a number of years. He usually brings defensive value. Same with Poehling. He’s been very good defensively and does bring some offensive ability as well.

If you look at 5x5 PT, they're rolling three lines, getting close to equal TOI:
Couts 12:16 (PK 2:32, PP 4:40)
Tippett 11:39 (PP 3;04)
Laughton 11:31 (PK 1:36)
Brink 11:24 (PP 3:24)
Farabee 11:10 (PP 2:58)
Foerster 10:40 (PP 4:01)
TK 10:38 (PP 4:16)
Atkinson 10:27 (PK 2:08, PP 4:19)
Hathaway 10:20 (PK 1:04)
Poehling 10:11 (PK 1:06)
Cates 9:55 (PK 2:27, PP 2:25)
Deslauriers 9:44
Frost 9:16 (PP 2:23)

Note they're using Cates almost like a 4th line forward
I think this will be in flux over the first 20 games or so, then Torts will settle on a top 9.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I hate how he has those 1st,2nd,3rd,4th line demarcations. The fact is that they are deployed in a certain way, and their sG is based on their individual circumstances. That’s descriptive, and you can’t use those values to say player x would preform in a top line role. I think those lines should say something different, some combination of ‘excellent, good, average, poor, bad’.

YES!!!!! Everyone else is busy arguing about these dopey labels and here the two of us are.

 

[Striiker]

YES!!!!! Everyone else is busy arguing about these dopey labels and here the two of us are.

Better used to just reference expected amounts of playing time.

 

[wasup]

Why are you bringing up Frost? No one mentioned Frost at all.

I see you are arguing with someone that I can't see anymore . I get three guesses and the first two don't count . lol It's way more e tolerable on here now a days and i've only got 60 percent of the posts on here to read .

Oh happy days are here again .

 

[freakydallas13]

Since this isn't remotely what the team is doing, I don't know why you'd even post it as a defense.

They are experimenting how much Frost likes the press box.

 

[deadhead]

YES!!!!! Everyone else is busy arguing about these dopey labels and here the two of us are.

It's arbitrary in that you're ranking players, whatever label you use.
What's more important is you know what you're ranking, that is, offense, defense, total value.

From a team building perspective, you want both to optimize total value in all situations, but also have a portfolio of skills, since some skills (like scoring goals when you're behind) are more valuable in certain situations.

So Cates might be a more valuable player with a one goal lead in the 3rd period, but less valuable if you're behind by 2 goals.

 

[tnfrs]

As a grizzled vet Frost is just here to help mentor some of the younger guys like owen tippett and ryan poehling, like legendary player/coach Marc Staal was here to do before he got injured, you guys are all small picture folks. And if you really wanna coach like Torts, it starts in the press box.

 

[freakydallas13]

It's arbitrary in that you're ranking players, whatever label you use.
What's more important is you know what you're ranking, that is, offense, defense, total value.

From a team building perspective, you want both to optimize total value in all situations, but also have a portfolio of skills, since some skills (like scoring goals when you're behind) are more valuable in certain situations.

So Cates might be a more valuable player with a one goal lead in the 3rd period, but less valuable if you're behind by 2 goals.

You want to optimize total value, but....

 

[Beef Invictus]

Better used to just reference expected amounts of playing time.

This is their only purpose and at this point I don't even like being that precise. Bottom, middle, top sixes.

 

[Curufinwe]

Two great setups by Cates so far this week. The GWG on Monday, and this insurance marker last night.

 

[deadhead]

"Everyone has been burned before, everybody knows pain . . "

HDCA/60:

Farabee 7.38
Foerster 7.43
Cates 7.51
Brink 8.54
TK 8.73
Laughton 9.12
Frost 9.12
Couts 9.82
Tippett 10.81
Atkinson 11.50
Hathaway 12.61
Poehling 12.70
Deslauriers 13.16