Post-Game Talk: Flyers? More like fallers. Pens - 6, them - 2

[Asuna]

Statistically we have been one of the best, arguably the best, team in the NHL for over half a year now in the stats which best predict playoff success.

I wonder if the Pens are flying somewhat under the radar still though and not thought of as in that top tier.

They definitely are flying under the radar, which is fine by me. I prefer it that way.

 

[IcedCapp]

Any context for that graph... because it looks like a whole lot of nothing to me

We take a lot of shots and don't give up a lot

 

[Jaded-Fan]

We take a lot of shots and don't give up a lot

That article that I linked said that 10 of the 14 cup finsps participates were top four in shot differential for the year. As it is a reflection of puck possession.

So while stats can be, and often are, misleading, that is a very good one to be leading in.

Especially when you consider that those numbers have been much better since Sully took over as compared to the entire year.

 

[WayneSid9987]

There was a fun one of those graphs on twitter that showed where the MJ/Scuderi/Perron Pens were to now. See if i can find it...

Here it is:

 

[MrBrightside]

That article that I linked said that 10 of the 14 cup finsps participates were top four in shot differential for the year. As it is a reflection of puck possession.

So while stats can be, and often are, misleading, that is a very good one to be leading in.

Especially when you consider that those numbers have been much better since Sully took over as compared to the entire year.

Was surprised to see that the 2012-2013 team that was 36-12 was only 18th in shot differential while Boston was 3rd...perhaps they didn't choke so much as get beaten by the better team.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Was surprised to see that the 2012-2013 team that was 36-12 was only 18th in shot differential while Boston was 3rd...perhaps they didn't choke so much as get beaten by the better team.

Read this:

Can Analytics Predict the Playoffs? — Part 1

One of the biggest reasons that puck possession numbers have become so prevalent in today’s NHL is because of their ability to predict playoff success.

Over the past decade or so, teams that finish the season with high 5-on-5 Corsi For percentages find themselves going deep into the postseason, especially the teams that finish near the top of the league.

Here’s a quick and simple chart, showing the Stanley Cup winners and runners-up of the salary cap era, as well as their 5-on-5 score adjusted Corsi For percentage (rank in parentheses). The 2005-06 season is kept off due to the high number of power plays we saw in the league that year (less time at 5-on-5 means less importance for puck possession metrics).

As we can see, the winning team has been an elite possession team in almost every season; seven of the nine winners were top five in Corsi For percentage, while the two teams that fell outside of the top five still rated high by possession metrics.

The 2010-11 Boston Bruins finished 10th in Corsi For percentage, which is good, but not great. They had a massive advantage over the rest of the league when it came to their goaltender, however, as Tim Thomas posted a 0.938 save percentage during the regular season, and a 0.940 save percentage during the playoffs, transforming a good Bruins team into the Stanley Cup Champions.

The 2008-09 Pittsburgh Penguins may have finished 19th in the league that year, but they had a coaching change late in the season, firing Michel Therrien and hiring Dan Bylsma. Under Bylsma, the team was 6th in the league with a 53.6 percent Corsi rating.

Even among the runners-up, six of the nine teams finished the year in the top 10 in Corsi For percentage.

Overall, among the 18 teams that have competed for the Stanley Cup in the past nine years, 14 of them (15, if you count the 2008-09 Penguins) finished the regular season in the top ten for score adjusted Corsi For percentage.

Looking at puck possession metrics instead of the league standings is generally going to give you a good idea of which teams are ripe for playoff success. The key reason for this is because puck luck and random variance play a significant role in determining the outcome of games during the regular season, while shot attempt metrics remain relatively stable.

http://www.todaysslapshot.com/one-timers/can-analytics-predict-playoffs-part-1/

Then this:

Pittsburgh, the fourth-best puck possession team, is 8-2-0 over the last 10 games and has the fifth highest adjusted scoring margin in the NHL (.036). Plus, they feature Sidney Crosby, who, after a slow start to the season, ranks third in points scored with 78.

The Rangers, meanwhile, are one of the worst puck possession teams (48 percent, 22nd in league) and have been in a free fall over the past 25 games.

Sure, the Rangers still have goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, but not even the best goaltenders can weather a storm of high-danger chances for very long. And right now, there are only five teams that yield more high-danger scoring chances than New York does at even strength (currently 11.3 per 60 minutes).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...hould-want-to-face-the-islanders-and-rangers/

The Pens ARE playing the kind of hockey that past cup winners play. Have been for months, since Sully's hire. In fact their numbers are even BETTER than the ones above because they include the half of a season under Johnson when those numbers were among the worst in the league. They are playing at one of the highest puck possession levels of any team in any year and have been since December.

 

[ChrisKuuuunitz]

rebroadcast on root right now, can watch the flyers choke again woot

 

[Malkinstheman]

I was fine expecting a first round loss as long as the team made some progress. I don't know if I can handle an early exit after so much excitement and anticipation.

 

[Lionel Hutz]

I was fine expecting a first round loss as long as the team made some progress. I don't know if I can handle an early exit after so much excitement and anticipation.

They've made a believer out of me.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

rebroadcast on root right now, can watch the flyers choke again woot

Thanks, was at the game so never saw the broadcast.

 

[vodeni]

Haha, that perked someone up.

Dušan Makajevev "WR: Mysteries of the Organism", which is super explicit and pretty hilarious. And Miloš Forman's "Loves of a Blonde" which is less explicit and sadder but just as funny in parts.

wow citing makavejev and forman, not your typical yinzer pens fan

 

[cygnus47]

I was fine expecting a first round loss as long as the team made some progress. I don't know if I can handle an early exit after so much excitement and anticipation.

The nice thing is that the team could easily bring the whole gang back next year minus some dead weight.

 

[MetalheadPenguinsFan]

Dem Philadelphia Failures.

Never change Philly.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Dem Philadelphia Failures.

Never change Philly.

The Pens traded nothing for Daley, Schultz and almost useless to us for Carl Hagelin.

And the Flyers added Gudas.

At least they have an identity, we all know what Flyer hockey is. That is better than the Pens had for the past few years.

However, how many times can you roll out the same fail formula before you try something new? It is almost half a century since their last cup now.

 

[Mr. T]

wow citing makavejev and forman, not your typical yinzer pens fan

What's next, a Jan Svankmajer reference?

 

[madinsomniac]

Was surprised to see that the 2012-2013 team that was 36-12 was only 18th in shot differential while Boston was 3rd...perhaps they didn't choke so much as get beaten by the better team.

The Bottom six that year wasnt very good at generating shots and the 4 th line was a shooting gallery for the other team every time it set foot on the ice