Flyers Defense at the deadline

Rebels57

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http://alongtheboards.com/2015/02/philadelphia-flyers-blue-line-deadline-dilemma-part-one/

I wrote an overview of who is more likely to be traded and the value we would likely get back for them. This is part one, I would have just done it is one article but had to split it as it was just too long! Part 2 due in the next few days. Not as analytical as my last two articles but hopefully you guys like it all the same!

Excellent work. Looking forward to part 2!

I agree with the assesment on all 4 players. Streit is here to stay to maintain our solid PP and be a veteran presence going forward. AMac is here to stay for a few seasons. Coburn won't be traded unless we are getting a 1st and a prospect. Timonen is the most likely to be moved (Hexxy alluded to moving him already) if he makes it through some games before the deadline and I expect it to be for a conditional 3rd or 4th.
 

Tedeward

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Can't wait for Part 2.

Luke Schenn is going to be interesting. Suprisingly his CF60 is 2nd on the team defense only behind CC. I thought that this may just be because that he is partnered with offensive defenseman often but his individual corsi is 3rd on the team. This may be a result of being 2nd on the team in OZFO%. He is almost tied with Streit for 1st in that regard. Why would Berube do that? Definitely a headscratcher.
 

thedjpd

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Can't wait for Part 2.

Luke Schenn is going to be interesting. Suprisingly his CF60 is 2nd on the team defense only behind CC. I thought that this may just be because that he is partnered with offensive defenseman often but his individual corsi is 3rd on the team. This may be a result of being 2nd on the team in OZFO%. He is almost tied with Streit for 1st in that regard. Definitely a headscratcher.

It's not that surprising. Schenn is scrutinized a lot for his defensive miscues, because he's one of only 3 defenseman on our team that get the puck in the defensive zone and actually look up to pass instead of firing it off the boards or into center ice blindly.

This idea of trying to make a play results in the same turnover miscues like Streit and MDZ but he doesn't produce offensively like they do, so they are given more leeway.

But for a defensive d-man, he's actually pretty perfect - Solid defensively, physical, and can make the pass to get it out of the zone (not a blind dump). Won't produce offensively, but even in the o-zone he looks to fire and get his shots through.

I'm hoping he still drops another 10 pounds over this offseason to a 210 type of weight and his skating and conditioning will make him much more effective.
 

BillDineen

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At mid season AMac also had 82 failed zone exits vs. 55 for MDZ despite playing fewer games (and ave. fewer even strength minutes) and had to attempt more zone exits (224 for AMac vs 202 for MDZ). Those are actual large differences. As is his decline in blocked shots. If AMac is having to clear the puck out of his zone that often, he is getting chances to block shots. Further, even MDZ has more blocks.
 

thedjpd

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At mid season AMac also had 82 failed zone exits vs. 55 for MDZ despite playing fewer games (and ave. fewer even strength minutes) and had to attempt more zone exits (224 for AMac vs 202 for MDZ). Those are actual large differences. As is his decline in blocked shots. If AMac is having to clear the puck out of his zone that often, he is getting chances to block shots. Further, even MDZ has more blocks.

Even MDZ has played well, and is quite clearly a top-4 damn as is. He still is young enough to sneak into the top pairing if he keeps developing. Same with Luke Schenn.

I think Flyers fans are expecting every defenseman to be Timonen/Pronger without realizing how rare they are.

Every team that has defenseman like MDZ and Schenn that make mistakes, or aren't perfect. Mistakes and miscues will happen when you aren't Timonen/Pronger.

Not every defenseman "sucks" because they make a turnover. It's part of the game. But I feel our fanbase is far too critical.
 

BringBackHakstol

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It's not that surprising. Schenn is scrutinized a lot for his defensive miscues, because he's one of only 3 defenseman on our team that get the puck in the defensive zone and actually look up to pass instead of firing it off the boards or into center ice blindly.

This idea of trying to make a play results in the same turnover miscues like Streit and MDZ but he doesn't produce offensively like they do, so they are given more leeway.

But for a defensive d-man, he's actually pretty perfect - Solid defensively, physical, and can make the pass to get it out of the zone (not a blind dump). Won't produce offensively, but even in the o-zone he looks to fire and get his shots through.

I'm hoping he still drops another 10 pounds over this offseason to a 210 type of weight and his skating and conditioning will make him much more effective.

Good point. Schenn, Streit, Schultz, and MDZ are quite clearly the best D we have with breakout skills. Schenn can't move his feet at all which reduces his ability, but he can pass and he can read the breakout.

Coburn is sort of stuck in the middle. He's got the physical tools and sometimes he'll make the smart play, but more often than not he panics or just misreads the play, noticeably he tries to wheel the puck back to his D partner but misreads the play making it a tougher play for his partner or just flat out turns it over.

Goes without saying that MacD and Grossmann are just flat out dog **** at exiting the zone. They almost always just chip the puck off of the boards or miss a really long pass no matter what is going on around them
 

BernieParent

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Great job on this, Appleyard. It reads better than the vast majority of "professional" sports reporter content. I'm looking forward to Part 2, as well.

One thing I am wondering is the effect of this current win streak on how a move by Hextall would be perceived in the locker room. It's one thing to move a key player like Coburn (for example) when the team is slumping, but to have them clawing their way back into contention for a playoff spot may well get some player noses out of joint. I'm not saying it wouldn't be the right move, but in such a scenario Hextall is now in the unenviable position of having to justify to the players a step back when the team is "starting to gel".

We can take the stance that Hextall has been consistent on his long-term vision statements and that he doesn't have to justify his actions. However, a good manager needs to keep his employees' considerations in mind of significant changes, and we have talked about the damaging effects of "cultures of losing". How to walk the fine line of breaking with the past of hell-bent-for-leather for playoff pushes versus making realistic decisions about the current team's playoff chances and future potential? This is where Ron Hextall starts earning his salary.
 

Rebels57

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Even MDZ has played well, and is quite clearly a top-4 damn as is. He still is young enough to sneak into the top pairing if he keeps developing. Same with Luke Schenn.

I think Flyers fans are expecting every defenseman to be Timonen/Pronger without realizing how rare they are.

Every team that has defenseman like MDZ and Schenn that make mistakes, or aren't perfect. Mistakes and miscues will happen when you aren't Timonen/Pronger.

Not every defenseman "sucks" because they make a turnover. It's part of the game. But I feel our fanbase is far too critical.

Good post.

I like MDZ and Schenn a lot this season, despite the occasional mistake. They have been solid contributors. The fact that both have been healthy scratches more than AMac or Grossmann is a true indicator of how out of touch Berube and Gord Murphy are with the defense.
 

deadhead

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MDZ and Schenn have got benched because of inconsistency, not talent. When MDZ is focused, he's probably the best defenseman on the current roster, when he's off, he's really off - and that makes him scary, because at his age he shouldn't be so inconsistent. Schenn is more a matter of the right pairing, MDZ would be perfect if he was responsible, Streit if he could skate (on the PP, Streit doesn't have to move the way he does at ES), etc.

In a sense, the problem is more a matter of misfits than talent, while they lack first line talents, they have 5 guys who could be a solid second pairing defensemen if paired with the right guy (Streit, McDonald, Schenn, MDZ, Coburn), but they don't fit well with each other. Grossman and Schultz would be an above average 3rd pairing, if they could put the first two pairs together.

I could see in a couple years, Morin/Ghost, Senheim/Schenn, Hagg/McDonald. I'm not sure they trust MDZ enough to give him a market level extension. I suspect Hextall will be far more stingy when it comes to paying players in the future - once burned . . .
 

Rebels57

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MDZ and Schenn have got benched because of inconsistency, not talent. When MDZ is focused, he's probably the best defenseman on the current roster, when he's off, he's really off - and that makes him scary, because at his age he shouldn't be so inconsistent. Schenn is more a matter of the right pairing, MDZ would be perfect if he was responsible, Streit if he could skate (on the PP, Streit doesn't have to move the way he does at ES), etc.

In a sense, the problem is more a matter of misfits than talent, while they lack first line talents, they have 5 guys who could be a solid second pairing defensemen if paired with the right guy (Streit, McDonald, Schenn, MDZ, Coburn), but they don't fit well with each other. Grossman and Schultz would be an above average 3rd pairing, if they could put the first two pairs together.

I could see in a couple years, Morin/Ghost, Senheim/Schenn, Hagg/McDonald. I'm not sure they trust MDZ enough to give him a market level extension. I suspect Hextall will be far more stingy when it comes to paying players in the future - once burned . . .

MDZ has been better than Grossmann and AMac all season and should at no point have been scratched over them IMO.

I totally agree with your second paragraph. We certainly don't have the RIGHT pieces in place on D..and it actually looks worse with Coburn in there because Coburn has ZERO chemistry with anyone on the defense since Timonen went down. I'd be interested to see if Coburn is able to elevate his play paired with Timonen when he comes back (if one or both aren't traded).

Timonen-Coburn
Schultz-Streit
Del Zotto-Schenn

That's actually solid if Timonen and Coburn regain some semblance of their previous effectiveness.

MacDonald, Grossmann

Or will the putz scratch Schenn and Del Zotto over AMac and Gross? My guess is, YES. :help:
 

lancer247

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does the Methot contract change the idea of keeping Coburn?

If you can sign Coburn next year at 4.5 x 5 would you do that?


Ghost - Coburn
MDZ - Morin
AMac - Schenn
 

daynus

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I can see grosmann getting moved, what would he fetch a 3rd? Timmonen I wish him the best, love that guy, such a beast. If he can get a few games in, he should be worth a 3rd. So if we nab a couple more 3rds, this will give hexy and scouts lots of ammo to fill the cupboards.
 

potsiev2

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AMac was elite at one thing, shot blocking, until this past season:

2014-2015: #6 on the Flyers, tied #133 in the nhl. 58 in 42 gm - 1.38 blocks/game

2013-2014: #1 in nhl: 242 blocks (#2 had 211) in 82 gm - 2.95 blocks/game (19 games with Flyers)
2012-2013: tied #3 in nhl: 123 blocks in 48 gm - 2.56 blocks/game
2011-2012: tied #5 in nhl: 185 blocks in 75 gm - 2.47 blocks/game
2010-2011: tied #14 in nhl: 160 blocks in 60 gm - 2.67 blocks/game

This is puzzling because shot blocking is just a matter of sacrificing your body and AMac doesn't seen to be close as willing to do this now that he has a new fat contract.

It is clear that Hextall values blocked shots and the Isles did while AMac was there:

Hextall:

“The game today is blocking shots,†said general manager Ron Hextall, who didn’t have as many teammates blocking shots when in his days as a goalie. “You’re right to block shots. As long as you think you can block it. You’ve got to try and block it.â€

Capuano1:

“Blocking shots comes from sacrificing yourself and putting yourself in the right position in the defensive zone, being in shooting lanes.â€
Capuano added: “It’s a read-and-react game. Players go by instinct. The rules are a lot different. Now the way to defend is a little different, too. Sometimes, a blocked shot is as big as scoring a game-winning goal when you see desperation on a six-on-five situation later in games, or the other team is on the power play.â€

Capuano2:

Capuano reminded that defensive work "is all five guys, making sure of having good gaps when [the offense] enters the zone, making sure you're taking away time and space, and having an active stick. And, yeah, you have to sacrifice your body, have a willingness to block shots."

Vigneault/Lundqvist during last year's playoff series:

“Shot blocking is a skill, but it takes a lot of will and courage. Our guys have that,†Rangers coach Alain Vigneault said Wednesday during a conference call. “It has more to do with the willingness to find that lane and block that shot.
“You know it’s coming and you know it’s going to hurt. That’s just part of winning hockey. Teams that usually have that in their repertoire are usually good teams. We had to make some great defensive plays.â€

“It’s a big part in the playoffs,†Lundqvist said. “That’s huge when guys pay the price like that. It’s tough mentally for the other team when you try to get going and guys are just throwing themselves in front of the puck and stop it.

USA Today with Quotes:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/2014/11/30/shot-blocking-important-nhl-hockey/19687535/

Over the last 10 seasons, shot blocking has increased by roughly five a game. That means that there are about 6,000 more shots a season blocked today than there were in 2003-04.

In 1997-98, the New York Rangers led the NHL with 871 blocked shots and most teams had a total below 700. Last season, the Montreal Canadiens led with 1,491 blocked shots, an average of 18 a game. Four of the 30 teams blocked fewer than 1,000 shots.

"It is hard to get the puck to the net," Arizona Coyotes defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson said. "Everyone is talking about blocking shots."

"It's considered a big team thing and you usually get the pat on the back when you get back to the bench," said Vancouver Canucks defenseman Kevin Bieksa. "It can galvanize a team."

Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman said shot blocking "can be as important as scoring a goal."

"Everyone hates to be scored on," Simmonds said. "I'm all for sacrificing your body if that is what you need to do to win. … You see guys putting their faces in front of pucks."

The popularity of shot blocking has escalated as coaches have become more defensive-oriented. Now, forwards are working on trying to overcome the shot blockers.

"These defensemen are so good at getting in lanes," New Jersey Devils forward Travis Zajac said. "It's almost like you have to make the extra pass if you want to score."

"Ryan McDonagh blocks everything he sees," Simmonds said.

The Rangers' McDonagh says the value of shot blocking outweighs the risk of injury. In addition to preventing a scoring chance, there's an inspirational boost, particularly in the playoffs.

"When you see a block," he said, "it motivates you as a player to make sure you are doing your part."

Note: there are those against it. Ie. if you have the puck in possession there is nothing to block.

Hitchcock on blocking shots:

"I think shot blocking is the most useless stat in the National Hockey League."
“If you’re blocking shots it means the puck is in your zone a lot,†Hitchcock said today, per NHL.com’s Dan Rosen. “When you’re a shot-blocking team, you never get it back.â€

... But it is not as if the puck isn't trapped in the Flyers zone when AMac is out there. He just isn't playing as he used to.

amac was in a recent interview addressing the reason for his blocked shots being down. Basically stated that he's been asked to play a more offensive role and thus has changed his approach to how he plays the game. I'm a little foggy on the interview but i'm pretty sure he was putting it on the coaching staff asking him to change up his game style as a reason for his blocked shots being down. I can't be the only one that seen that interview? ( a month ago or so). He needs to go back to doing the one thing he was actually good at IMHO. Berube needs to go as well
 

dats81

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does the Methot contract change the idea of keeping Coburn?

If you can sign Coburn next year at 4.5 x 5 would you do that?


Ghost - Coburn
MDZ - Morin
AMac - Schenn

5 more years of Coburn... as the second highest paid defenseman once Streit retires?
:banghead:

I'd offer him 2 years max.
 

PALE PWNR

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A-Mac's shot blocking totals were so absurdly high because he doesn't challenge the puck carrier at the blue line and just backs up all the way into the goalie, resulting in more shots, resulting in more blocks because hes directly between the goalie and shot taker. The problem being he's letting the shooter move in so close if he doesn't block it, it's a fantastic scoring chance as the shooter is basically in the slot because they were allowed in the zone without any pressure. I haven't seen a ton of games this year, nor have I payed a ton of attention to A-Mac this year aside from seeing 47 on the ice and wanting to immediate vomit but maybe he's challenging the puck carrier more, leading to less shot attempts leading to less blocked shots. At least, I hope thats the reason because hes going to be on this team forever now.
 

OrangeAndBlackMetal

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I'd trade Coburn for a late first, dump Grossmann, and maybe look into bringing in a guy like Paul Martin or Johnny Oduya in the offseason to help the rookies along on the defensive side of the game.
 

FLYguy3911

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Always liked Oduya but he's another LHD. Martin did/does play the right side however.
 

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