Roster Moves: Flyers claim Pickard off Waivers

[Ghosts Beer]

This team is going nowhere with their current level of goaltending.

 

[BernieParent]

I don't see much in the way of a quick (Quick?) fix. Maybe, maybe, if Crawford showed that he was healthy, but that is a huge risk / big reward option. $6 million for another season after this one.

 

[deadhead]

tell me more.
View attachment 148637

Elliott .878, dS% 0.89 PK 83.33 dS% -0.47
Pickard .833 dS% -7.08 PK 80.0% dS% -5.27

Pickard is worse than Elliott, even worse than Mrazek, amazing!

 

[renberg]

IDK if Lehtonen is healthy but if he is, the Flyers should sign him. Elliott and Neuvirth should be gone at the end of this season; Pickard by the end of the first week in November. Hart won't be ready for at least a season and the same is true for Sandstrom. Unless the Flyers are willing to go with Lyon and Stolarz, a goalie has to be added to the mix until Hart, Sandstrom or one of the Russian prospects is ready to go. Maybe Hextall will trade for a goalie but that would cost assets and be no better than Lehtonen. He only costs money.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Is it possible with the hot garbage in net that they just say "f*** it" and roll with Stolie (or Hart, but I feel like that is unrealistic)?

 

[Appleyard]

In regards to Neuvirth and Elliott over their time with the Flyers though most of the problems have been the PK... same as the problem was for Mason.

They have all been fine at 5v5... even if Neuvirth slightly below average.

5v5:

Mason: .931 sv%, +0.39 vs ExSV%
Elliott: .928 sv%, +0.63 vs ExSV%
Neuvirth: .922 sv%, -0.14 vs ExSV%

League average since 2013-14 has been ~.923sv% at 5v5...
Flyer have been at .926sv%.

Flyers 5v5:

14-15: .930sv% (7th in NHL)
15-16: .934sv% (2nd in NHL)
16-17: .917sv% (25th in NHL)
17-18: .925sv% (12th in NHL)
Overall: 926sv% (9th in NHL)

Now for PK:

14-15: .837sv% (29th in NHL)
15-16: .863sv% (21st in NHL)
16-17: .839sv% (28th in NHL
17-18: .817sv% (31st in NHL)
Overall: . .840sv% (31st in NHL... 2nd worst are at .857)

 

[Ghosts Beer]

In regards to Neuvirth and Elliott over their time with the Flyers though most of the problems have been the PK... same as the problem was for Mason.

They have all been fine at 5v5... even if Neuvirth slightly below average.

5v5:

Mason: .931 sv%, +0.39 vs ExSV%
Elliott: .928 sv%, +0.63 vs ExSV%
Neuvirth: .922 sv%, -0.14 vs ExSV%

League average since 2013-14 has been ~.923sv% at 5v5...
Flyer have been at .925sv%.

Flyers 5v5:

14-15: .930sv% (7th in NHL)
15-16: .934sv% (2nd in NHL)
16-17: .917sv% (25th in NHL)
17-18: .925sv% (12th in NHL)

Now for PK:

14-15: .837sv% (29th in NHL)
15-16: .863sv% (21st in NHL)
16-17: .839sv% (28th in NHL
17-18: .817sv% (31st in NHL)

Or could it be that it’s harder to cover up a goaltender’s flaws when a man short?

 

[deadhead]

The weird thing about the PK S% is the Flyers are above average in xGA, so the goalies are giving up far more goals than you'd expect.

My theory is that the 5x5 is structured enough that goalies can focus on the first shot and position themselves, so lack of athleticism isn't apparent.
But on PK, the goalie is the 5th player, that is, even with a top PK goalies still have to make tough saves and control rebounds, and this is where a less athletic/less fundamentally sound goalie gets exposed.

Could be nonsense, not sure how you test this, but it's the only explanation that explains the divergence in ExSV% between 5x5 and PK:
PK ExSV%
Mason -4.41
Mrazek -4.31
Elliott -4.99
Neuvirth -0.65

 

[Appleyard]

Or could it be that it’s harder to cover up a goaltender’s flaws when a man short?

This has been several goalies now though whose numbers have dropped on the PK quite obviously since coming to Philly.

Elliott before Flyers: .882 sv%
Elliott with Flyers: .819 sv%
Neuvirth before Flyers: .880 sv%
Neuvirth with Flyers: .868 sv%
Mason before Flyers: .861 sv%
Mason with Flyers: .854 sv%

NHL average is .871 sv%.

 

[renberg]

But on PK, the goalie is the 5th player, that is, even with a top PK goalies still have to make tough saves and control rebounds, and this is where a less athletic/less fundamentally sound goalie gets exposed.

This is where Elliott kills the team. He is not athletic, especially now after his injuries from last season. He can hardly move side to side. He stays back deep in the nets so there is no way that he can cut down shooting angles. He should be put on IR until he is healthy and if he can't perform at that time buy him out and let him go.
Neuvirth is athletic and when he is healthy, he can make plays. His issue, as we all know, is he can't stay healthy. That said, what good is an unreliable goalie?
Unless the organization is ready to go with Lyon, a reliable goalie has to be acquired. I get it that Hextall thought that Elliott and Neuvirth would be capable of playing this year so he didn't make a move to add a goalie in the off season. Well that didn't play out. There is a major need to add a goalie and Pickard isn't the one. With a capable goalie, the Flyers can make the POs. With the hot garbage that is there now, that isn't going to happen.
Questions for Appleyard: (1) Is Lehtonen healthy? and (2) does he want to play in the NHL anymore?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

They got six goalies under contract. They’re going have to unload at least one of them (if not two) if they want to make a move for a goalie.

 

[renberg]

They got six goalies under contract. They’re going have to unload at least one of them (if not two) if they want to make a move for a goalie.

Cut Pickard; IR Elliott; play Neuvirth until he gets hurt and then IR him. Hart, Lyon and Stolarz are at LV.
Elliott and Neuvirth are done at the end of the season anyway. Pickard is no better than Lyon or Stolarz when they are healthy. Hart isn't ready.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Elliott is .819 on the PK with the Flyers? Dear God. That’s a lot more than just system to be that shockingly horrible.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Cut Pickard; IR Elliott; play Neuvirth until he gets hurt and then IR him. Hart, Lyon and Stolarz are at LV.
Elliott and Neuvirth are done at the end of the season anyway. Pickard is no better than Lyon or Stolarz when they are healthy. Hart isn't ready.

You can’t IR Elliott unless there’s an injury. Pickard you could potentially get rid of if you put him back on waivers & Toronto reclaims him. Otherwise you’re stuck with him.

It’s not just the NHL level but clearing up the picture down in the minors would also be helpful as well since you got three guys down there in Hart, Stolarz, & Lyon you preferably like them all to get enough work in.

 

[Curufinwe]

This is where Elliott kills the team. He is not athletic, especially now after his injuries from last season. He can hardly move side to side. He stays back deep in the nets so there is no way that he can cut down shooting angles. He should be put on IR until he is healthy and if he can't perform at that time buy him out and let him go.

You can't buy a player out during the season, and his contract is up after this season.

Philadelphia Flyers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Appleyard]

The weird thing about the PK S% is the Flyers are above average in xGA, so the goalies are giving up far more goals than you'd expect.

My theory is that the 5x5 is structured enough that goalies can focus on the first shot and position themselves, so lack of athleticism isn't apparent.
But on PK, the goalie is the 5th player, that is, even with a top PK goalies still have to make tough saves and control rebounds, and this is where a less athletic/less fundamentally sound goalie gets exposed.

Could be nonsense, not sure how you test this, but it's the only explanation that explains the divergence in ExSV% between 5x5 and PK:
PK ExSV%
Mason -4.41
Mrazek -4.31
Elliott -4.99
Neuvirth -0.65

ExGA on the PK are also way less correlated with actual sv% over large samples.

86 goalies have played 2500+ 5v5 minutes since 2010.
80 goalies have played 400+ PK minutes since 2010.

5v5 since 2010: +0.345 correlation coefficient. P Value= 0.001142, significant to 99%.

9/86 with +1/-1 or more difference than expected:
Lundqvist (+1.02)
Roloson (-1.06)
Linback (-1.13)
Fasth (-1.13)
Grubauer (+1.2)
Garon (-1.2)
Gustavsson (-1.47)
Brodeur (-1.5)
Ellis (-1.51)

PK since 2010: +0.121 correlation coefficient. P Value= 0.284999, not significant even to even 90%.

37/80 with +1/-1 or more difference than expected.
14/80 with +2/-1 or more difference than expected.


So part of it is simply that ExGA is really, really good at 5v5... but not actually that good at PK.


Even when I plug in EVERY season of PK data ever... and only use goalies with 1400+ minutes (38 of them):

P Value= 0.159193, better than the previous sample... but still not significant to even 90%.

So ExSv% on the PK pretty much has no significance vs actual sv%, even though they are positively related.


(Hope all the figures are right... I literally just thought of this and did it on the fly. But they should be.)

 

[David St Hubbins]

This has been several goalies now though whose numbers have dropped on the PK quite obviously since coming to Philly.

Elliott before Flyers: .882 sv%
Elliott with Flyers: .819 sv%
Neuvirth before Flyers: .880 sv%
Neuvirth with Flyers: .868 sv%
Mason before Flyers: .861 sv%
Mason with Flyers: .854 sv%

NHL average is .871 sv%.

Hakstol has no choice! The coaching is fine!

 

[renberg]

You can't buy a player out during the season, and his contract is up after this season.

Philadelphia Flyers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Fine. Then just leave him on IR; put him on waivers when he's "well" and send him to LV. He's entitled to his contracted money but not a place on the roster when he can't play up to an acceptable level.

 

[deadhead]

This has been several goalies now though whose numbers have dropped on the PK quite obviously since coming to Philly.

Elliott before Flyers: .882 sv%
Elliott with Flyers: .819 sv%
Neuvirth before Flyers: .880 sv%
Neuvirth with Flyers: .868 sv%
Mason before Flyers: .861 sv%
Mason with Flyers: .854 sv%

NHL average is .871 sv%.

Neuvirth and Mason are close enough to be "noise," but Elliott's falloff suggests it's the goalie.

 

[Curufinwe]

The I in IR stands for injured. He's not injured.

 

[renberg]

The I in IR stands for injured. He's not injured.

If he’s not fully recovered from his surgeries he is.

 

[Rebels57]

This has been several goalies now though whose numbers have dropped on the PK quite obviously since coming to Philly.

Elliott before Flyers: .882 sv%
Elliott with Flyers: .819 sv%
Neuvirth before Flyers: .880 sv%
Neuvirth with Flyers: .868 sv%
Mason before Flyers: .861 sv%
Mason with Flyers: .854 sv%

NHL average is .871 sv%.

Meanwhile, Lappy is safe.

 

[Curufinwe]

If he’s not fully recovered from his surgeries he is.

He is recovered enough to play nine games already between preseason and regular season. Tonight will be #10.

Are you the same guy who kept saying Umberger should go on IR in his last season here when he wasn't injured?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

If he’s not fully recovered from his surgeries he is.

I’m going to guess by the fact he’s playing he’s recovered. He’s just old & sucks which isn’t a valid reason to put someone on injured reserve.

The Flyers haven’t even put MacDonald on IR to this point & he’s been out going on four games now & you can make a much better case for him that he didn’t fully recover yet from his injury.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

I’m going to guess by the fact he’s playing he’s recovered. He’s just old & sucks which isn’t a valid reason to put someone on injured reserve.

The Flyers haven’t even put MacDonald on IR to this point & he’s been out going on four games now & you can make a much better case for him that he didn’t fully recover yet from his injury.

At this point, I'm starting to wonder if it was Andy who gave birth to the baby and he is on maternity leave.