HF Habs: Flames or Panthers 1st Round Pick 2025

[pth2]

If the Calgary pick is between 20-32 in 2024 the Habs could just take that pick and forget all the rest of it.

That's highly unlikely to be the best outcome for Montreal.
The odds of getting a top 20 pick in 2025 are decent when you break it all down.

 

[calder candidate]

I think we should keep it on the down low before we jinx it like that Florida pick it look so good for so long and that quickly slip away

 

[habsfan92]

Hgher odds of trding it for an underachiever or keeping it and passing the the BPA's to address a roster need

 

[Jee]

This pick will be used to trade for Lafrenière, it's our destiny.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

This pick will be used to trade for Lafrenière, it's our destiny.

Him, or some other reclamation project.

 

[Chadstudsky]

You know what's actually bullish about this? All of these picks were all 8+ picks from Buffalo.

As @Goldenhands mentioned, Buffalo is more advanced in their rebuild than us and solidified their defense through Power and Dahlin before getting Benson, Savoie and Kulich. Obviously Reinbacher is not Dahlin (could be as good as Power though if he hits his ceiling), but this also means we still have 2-3 years to get prospects that are as good as what Buffalo has today.

We are very likely to get another top 10 pick this year and we can potentially get 2 top ~10 picks next year with ours + Calgary if they continue trending downwards.

Man I'm still so confused when I look at those conditions...

So Montreal can choose the 2024 CGY 1st pick if its between 20 and 32 (won't happen, they'll bet on CGY sucking in 2025)

But if CGY pick is top 10 in 2025 and FLA is not (good chances), we receive FLA pick, which could be 24+.

So how is it possible we get a top 10 CGY pick in 2025?

FLA will not imo be a lottery pick in 2025 therefore all those other subconditions of their pick dont matter.

 

[BLONG7]

Flames have lost Toffoli, are going to lose Hanifin at some point, Huberdeau hasn't been great and is on the wrong side of 30 and lindholm is likely to leave. The flames are a bad gust of wind away from being the Habs 21-22

And......................we have their pick in the first round? Or is that in 2025?

 

[SlafySZN]

And......................we have their pick in the first round? Or is that in 2025?

Yeah i wanna know too. The short version, because we know the trade is complicated

 

[FloJack]

Yeah i wanna know too. The short version, because we know the trade is complicated

If they pick 20th or higher this year, the Habs can let them know they’ll be taking that pick 48 hours prior to the draft.

2025 it gets more interesting, which I don’t have the time to currently add. I assume it will be next year as it can be Calgary’s or Florida's.

 

[Redux91]

If they pick 20th or higher this year, the Habs can let them know they’ll be taking that pick 48 hours prior to the draft.

2025 it gets more interesting, which I don’t have the time to currently add. I assume it will be next year as it can be Calgary’s or Florida's.

I sure hope Hughes has the entire point by point explanation tattooed on his body somewhere because I just don't know how anyone in management remembers even a single stipulation from the whole thing at all lol

 

[FloJack]

I sure hope Hughes has the entire point by point explanation tattooed on his body somewhere because I just don't know how anyone in management remembers even a single stipulation from the whole thing at all lol

Right? Lol. Just don’t take Calgary’s pick this year and then get to the calculus and corporate records and slot machine the next season.

 

[xX SEYF Xx]

Right? Lol. Just don’t take Calgary’s pick this year and then get to the calculus and corporate records and slot machine the next season.

or take the 20+ pick this year and save everybody the headache

 

[FloJack]

or take the 20+ pick this year and save everybody the headache

I WANT CHOAS! (and the Habs to have a lower pick in 2025/2026)

 

[LaP]

or take the 20+ pick this year and save everybody the headache

Taking the 20+ this year would be incredibly dumb.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Taking the 20+ this year would be incredibly dumb.

Not really. The odds of us getting anything other than the Florida pick in 2025 are very slim, pick 20-23 in 2024 could be better than waiting an extra year for a worse pick

 

[Gustave]

or take the 20+ pick this year and save everybody the headache

That’s a cop out. You want to have to follow both CGY and FLO (again) without knowing if you should be happy about very single result they both get.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Calgary drafting 20+ this year and then top 10 next year would almost require them to keep Lindholm, Backlund and Kylington for the full year and lose them for nothing. If they are good enough for top 12 this year they'll try to retain their vets. If not they'll trade them and finish lower than that.

ahhh, respectfully I don't think you fully understand the conditions of the trade.

We aren't getting Calgary's 1st in 2025 unless a lot of things happen. Most of which is dependent on how Florida plays this year.

Florida owes Calgary a conditional 1st for the Huberdeau trade, but they lottery protected it for this year. If the 2025 1st transfers to Calgary (Not a top-14 pick), Montreal will receive the Florida 1st (15-32) instead of the Calgary 1st.

TLDR: In order to get a high pick from Calgary, Florida needs to miss the playoffs as well

 

[LaP]

ahhh, respectfully I don't think you fully understand the conditions of the trade.

We aren't getting Calgary's 1st in 2025 unless a lot of things happen. Most of which is dependent on how Florida plays this year.

Florida owes Calgary a conditional 1st for the Huberdeau trade, but they lottery protected it for this year. If the 2025 1st transfers to Calgary (Not a top-14 pick), Montreal will receive the Florida 1st (15-32) instead of the Calgary 1st.

TLDR: In order to get a high pick from Calgary, Florida needs to miss the playoffs as well

According to pretty much anywhere i check if both Florida and Calgary do not draft top 10 next season we get the better pick. Which means if Calgary pick 11th we draft 11th.

2025 NHL Draft - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

2025 NHL draft details: player, overall, round and trade details

www.capfriendly.com

"Scenario: In the event CGY receives FLA’s 2025 1st round pick:
1. If both CGY AND FLA’s picks are NOT top 10, MTL will receive the better of the CGY and FLA 2025 1st round picks. Result: TBD"

The chance for Calgary to receive Florida pick in 2025 and Calgary to draft between 11th and 15th are imo much better than Calgary drafting 20+ (top 12 in the standings) and then finishing bottom 10 the next season.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

According to pretty much anywhere i check if both Florida and Calgary do not draft top 10 next season we get the better pick. Which means if Calgary pick 11th we draft 11th.

2025 NHL Draft - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

2025 NHL draft details: player, overall, round and trade details

www.capfriendly.com

"Scenario: In the event CGY receives FLA’s 2025 1st round pick:
1. If both CGY AND FLA’s picks are NOT top 10, MTL will receive the better of the CGY and FLA 2025 1st round picks. Result: TBD"

The chance for Calgary to receive Florida pick in 2025 and Calgary to draft between 11th and 15th are imo much better than Calgary drafting 20+ (top 12 in the standings) and then finishing bottom 10 the next season.

Definitely a strong possibility that Calgary doesn't finish 20+ and we don't even get a choice to exercise the option, but if they pick at #20 I'm probably taking it.

If Calgary finishes top-10 in 2025 we get the Florida pick again which is probably worse than 20. We'll have to see how things go this year because it is hard to project 2 seasons out

 

[Gustave]

Definitely a strong possibility that Calgary doesn't finish 20+ and we don't even get a choice to exercise the option, but if they pick at #20 I'm probably taking it.

If Calgary finishes top-10 in 2025 we get the Florida pick again which is probably worse than 20. We'll have to see how things go this year because it is hard to project 2 seasons out

Or a shit ton of bad happens and we get the 2026 CGY pick, totally unprotected

 

[Wayfarer13]

Not really. The odds of us getting anything other than the Florida pick in 2025 are very slim, pick 20-23 in 2024 could be better than waiting an extra year for a worse pick

If they don't get the 2025 pick does it go to 2026 without any conditions?

 

[LaP]

Definitely a strong possibility that Calgary doesn't finish 20+ and we don't even get a choice to exercise the option, but if they pick at #20 I'm probably taking it.

If Calgary finishes top-10 in 2025 we get the Florida pick again which is probably worse than 20. We'll have to see how things go this year because it is hard to project 2 seasons out

Calgary wont drafty 20th+ this year anyway. I would be surprised otherwise. They'll draft below that.

 

[Gustave]

If they don't get the 2025 pick does it go to 2026 without any conditions?

Yes.

 

[LaP]

If they don't get the 2025 pick does it go to 2026 without any conditions?

Yes but it's unlikely to happen. If we want to be honest it's going to be a 2025 pick. I don't see Calgary finishing top 12 this year in the standings so they wont draft 20+. Calgary drafted 16th this year and it should be similar next year too. And Florida wont draft top 10 in 2025 either. The most probably outcome is we either get Florida pick in 2025 because Calgary draft top 10 in 2025 or we get Calgary pick in 2025 because they draft somewhere in between 11th and the middle of the first round give or take.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Yes.

Then why are people worried about the 2025 pick? The farther off we can put it the higher the return has the potential to be.

Yes but it's unlikely to happen. If we want to be honest it's going to be a 2025 pick. I don't see Calgary finishing top 12 this year in the standings so they wont draft 20+. And Florida wont draft top 10 in 2025 either.

Nothing is for sure in this world and once something has the potential it will happen it's just a matter of when.