I’ll argue this point by point.
I will as well.
Saying tkachuk hasn’t out produced Gaudreau is blatantly untrue. Until 12 games ago when Gaudreau and Monahan got separated, Tkachuk had more points and even more even strength points (Monahan was also outproducing Gaudreau 5v5 at that time too).
You're right, I forgot that after a Sutter's first 14 games Tkachuk was able to catch Gaudreau because #13 was playing dump and chase hockey with Monahan and Ritchie. My fault.
2000 minutes over 7 seasons now (532 games) is a small sample size when it’s that spread out.
I didn't include Monahan's rookie season in my calculations, but adding that in there and the total sample for Monahan without Gaudreau at 5v5 is over 2,613 minutes.
For example, if once a game Gaudreau goes for an early change but Monahan gets caught out for only 15 seconds before he can change, thats 133 of those minutes already.
I've heard this excuse too much, so let me dispute it once and for all. So let's only include games where Monahan played at least half of his 5v5 time without Gaudreau.
Of the 2,613 minutes Monahan has played on his own, 2,107 minutes were logged in games where at least 50% of Monahan's 5v5 ice time was without Gaudreau - meaning he played the majority of the game without him. In that 2,106 minute sample, Monahan's xGF% is 45.55 and his xGF/60 drops to 1.86.
I've grouped on ice xGF metrics for Monahan in the table below based on the % of his 5v5 time he shared with Gaudreau. You can see that no matter the share of time he spends with Gaudreau, he gets completely dominated on his own.
You can see clearly how his productivity plummets when he doesn't spend a majority of his 5v5 time with Gaudreau. Note this is total productivity for the game regardless of whether he was with Gaudreau at the time of or not:
That situation happens endlessly in game situations. Another example is this 12 game stretch would account for over 10% of that total time, with Monahan getting time with Ritchie and Ryan.
He's only played 146 mins 5v5 in the last 12 games, far less than 10% of the sample.
He's also spent most of that time with Andrew Mangiapane on his wing.
First 5 games with Mangiapane and Dube (scored 1 5v5 goal and 1 empty net goal)
6th game with Mangiapane/Gaudreau and Ritchie (scored on Gaudreau setup, had a PP assist, and empty net assist)
7-8th games with Mangiapane and Gaudreau
9-11th games with Mangiapane and Ritchie
12th game with Ryan and Ritchie
You think it’s an indictment on Monahan when he can’t produce much with Ritchie when Gaudreau can’t at all?
Apparently this is news to you, but Monahan does not have a point in the last 12 games with Ritchie on the ice...
Monahan's 5 points in the last 12 games is comprised of
1 EN goal
1 EN assist
1 PP secondary assist
2 5v5 goals (one from Gaudreau, one from Mangiapane)
Monahan literally has 2 5v5 points in the last 12 games, one of them was set up by Gaudreau and the other was in his first game without Gaudreau on a play completely setup by Mangiapane and Dube.
How about the 30 games over four separate playoffs sample size in the playoffs where Gaudreau’s production suffers, yet Monahan’s doesn’t drop much at all and he out produces Gaudreau?
Monahan and Gaudreau both have 4 5v5 points in the playoffs, and Monahan gets to benefit from things that Gaudreau does, like this:
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Monahan also has more EN points than Gaudreau, and doesn't get shadowed around the ice by the other teams top defenders.
Another point is the fact that Gaudreau also hasn’t improved Tkachuk or Lindholm’s pace much at all since playing with them despite Gaudreau putting up numbers like he used to.
Dude what the heck are you talking about? Check out their 5v5 scoring paces with and without Gaudreau this year:
Lindholm with Gaudreau:
G/60: 1.39 (0.63 without)
P/60: 2.17 (1.76 without)
Tkachuk with Gaudreau:
G/60: 0.78 (0.52 without)
P/60: 3.13 (1.47 without)
There’s no arguing the fact Monahan is having a bad offensive season. But per 60 stats don’t do much to prove he depends on Gaudreau, and there are plenty of examples of him doing well without Gaudreau or while Gaudreau is struggling to disprove it.
Show me an example of Monahan doing well at 5v5 without Gaudreau or while Gaudreau is struggling. Remember last year when they tried to put Gaudreau with Lindholm and Tkachuk, but after 2 games of Monahan getting caved in they had to abandon that experiment?
You can chalk it up to randomness or small samples but the fact that he's been so remarkably consistent in his struggles to produce at 5v5 without Gaudreau leads me to believe otherwise:
His best year without Gaudreau was his rookie year, where puck luck significantly boosted his goal totals - he had 18 5v5 goals vs 8.47 expected goals. And even with that great puck luck, he was never able to breach 1.5 p/60 without Gaudreau.
