Post-Game Talk: First period sinks Jets, lose 5-2

[surixon]

Looking back through the games to see his matchups and his line doesn't fare well against top competition. With more even line distribution by opponents he mostly breaks even or slightly behind his line's competition.

Against Vegas he was getting primarily 2nd/3rd line competition, the Marchessault-Karlsson line. Kind of tough to judge with Vegas because they've spread their talent around to have 3 roughly even lines. Kessel-Eichel, Stephenson-Stone, Marchessault-Karlsson.
He came away basically even with the only goal against (ignoring the EN GA) being the Pionk pass to Rittich who gave it away to Eichel.

It's an entirely different story against Colorado however, being primarily hard matched against Rantanen-Mackinnon-Lehkonen and Makar. Lowry's line got completely caved in metrics against them, unsurprisingly. Looking back it seems even more incredible that we started Lowry against their top line in OT intentionally because it appears to have been dumb luck that they even got a shot away

The Stars TOI matchups against Lowry were all over the place but Lowry came away mostly even even against top competition. The only player he might've struggled with was Jason Robertson but with only 4:05 TOI against Robertson it's tough to say

And finally against the Rangers it was more similar to the Avs game. Hard matchups against the Rangers top players 5 on 5 in Lafrenière-Trochek-Panarin and Trouba where Lowry's line got their shit kicked in.

In summary - Lowry's line probably shouldn't be matched against top lines if we can help it with last change ie. the Rangers game.

I am going to wait and see how it fairs 10 games or so into the season but I'm not all that optimistic a third line built around Lowry that hard matches is a recipe for success any longer.

If anything I think the second line with their ability to get the puck out of their end cleanly and control their entries while maintaining possession might be our best bet for a matchup line.

 

[LowLefty]

Looking back through the games to see his matchups and his line doesn't fare well against top competition. With more even line distribution by opponents he mostly breaks even or slightly behind his line's competition.

Against Vegas he was getting primarily 2nd/3rd line competition, the Marchessault-Karlsson line. Kind of tough to judge with Vegas because they've spread their talent around to have 3 roughly even lines. Kessel-Eichel, Stephenson-Stone, Marchessault-Karlsson.
He came away basically even with the only goal against (ignoring the EN GA) being the Pionk pass to Rittich who gave it away to Eichel.

It's an entirely different story against Colorado however, being primarily hard matched against Rantanen-Mackinnon-Lehkonen and Makar. Lowry's line got completely caved in metrics against them, unsurprisingly. Looking back it seems even more incredible that we started Lowry against their top line in OT intentionally because it appears to have been dumb luck that they even got a shot away

The Stars TOI matchups against Lowry were all over the place but Lowry came away mostly even even against top competition. The only player he might've struggled with was Jason Robertson but with only 4:05 TOI against Robertson it's tough to say

And finally against the Rangers it was more similar to the Avs game. Hard matchups against the Rangers top players 5 on 5 in Lafrenière-Trochek-Panarin and Trouba where Lowry's line got their shit kicked in.

In summary - Lowry's line probably shouldn't be matched against top lines if we can help it with last change ie. the Rangers game.

thanks for sharing - good info -

No surprise they were caved by top team / top line competition - most of our lineup would probably fare the same under the circumstances.
But, it they are able to take some heat off the top 6 in the way of match ups, maybe not necessarily against the best teams, sawing off at even might be considered a plus IMO. I also think this line will only get better with more time to gel.

I'm not preaching a defensive 3rd line approach - only commenting that there can be a plus to this approach with our 3rd line (and that line might need more time to really dial in it). But I honestly don't have a problem with a solid defensive approach with our bottom 6 assuming they are taking some pressure off our top 6 and allowing them to drive the offense.

This might all change with what we have in the pipe for talent within the next few yrs - there is decent potential offense coming that is not there now.

 

[surixon]

thanks for sharing - good info -

No surprise they were caved by top team / top line competition - most of our lineup would probably fare the same under the circumstances.
But, it they are able to take some heat off the top 6 in the way of match ups, maybe not necessarily against the best teams, sawing off at even might be considered a plus IMO. I also think this line will only get better with more time to gel.

I'm not preaching a defensive 3rd line approach - only commenting that there can be a plus to this approach with our 3rd line (and that line might need more time to really dial in it). But I honestly don't have a problem with a solid defensive approach with our bottom 6 assuming they are taking some pressure off our top 6 and allowing them to drive the offense.

This might all change with what we have in the pipe for talent within the next few yrs - there is decent potential offense coming that is not there now.

Yeah we don't have enough ready pieces for an offensive third line at this time. Let's just hope this group improves as they get more familiar with the schemes.

We need tye top line to get back on track. Would be amazing if we could get them going at the same time our second line is going.

 

[gojetsgo]

so I think this means the earliest ehlers can be back is against the kings on the 27th

 

[surixon]

so I think this means the earliest ehlers can be back is against the kings on the 27th

That sucks. We need him back soon.

 

[Gm0ney]

A really nice positive so far has been Gustafsson, he's been one of the best forwards so far.

4th line > 3rd line - although the 4th is being sheltered and the 3rd is being fed to (and largely eaten by) the wolves.

 

[Inanna]

so I think this means the earliest ehlers can be back is against the kings on the 27th

Major suckage. Toninato is no one's solution to our lack of scoring.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Major suckage. Toninato is no one's solution to our lack of scoring.

just need him to stay in town and not off with the moose. he won't dress.

 

[bustamente]

It's not a Jets season if Nik doesn't pick up a nagging injury hopefully he heals up quickly and gets on the ice as soon as possible, the top line needs him

 

[ecolad]

Yeah we don't have enough ready pieces for an offensive third line at this time. Let's just hope this group improves as they get more familiar with the schemes.

We need tye top line to get back on track. Would be amazing if we could get them going at the same time our second line is going.

Not too many anticipated that the problem for the Jet`s this year might not be getting the xGA down but rather keeping the xGF up. The first four games have seen the xGF levels get worse and worse each game - not good at all.

 

[jetsforever]

so I think this means the earliest ehlers can be back is against the kings on the 27th

It sucks that when he finally gets Line 1 and PP1 time he immediately gets injured
Hope he's back ASAP

 

[rkp]

Pld needs to stop taking penalties in the o zone especially on the pp.......not a smart play.

 

[surixon]

Not too many anticipated that the problem for the Jet`s this year might not be getting the xGA down but rather keeping the xGF up. The first four games have seen the xGF levels get worse and worse each game - not good at all.

I would be lieing if I said I wasn't a bit worried about our ability to generate offense. I do think a large focus was on getting that defensive base in and I am hoping that once they get that down we see our offense pick up.

Some positives in that regard:

Perfetti, Ehlers and Dubois are showing a lot of ability early to drive play into the offensive end.

JoMo and Pionk look to be a pairing that can drive a lot of looks.

The worrying things I see:

Third line doesn't look all that dangerous offensively.

Scheifele's play driving. He's playing much better but I am wondering if we overestimated his ability to drive play due to Wheeler being elite at it prior to 2020. These last few games without an elite driver have been eye opening. He's still lethal in the ozone when possesion is established and he's rounding out his d game so he should still contribute but it looks like he needs someone to push the puck into the ozone for him.

Conner follows his centers lead instead of taking charge. Dubois played more quickly and more direct and he excelled playing that style. He's matched Mark's more slow play cycle game and I don't think he's as good at it as he is playing fast and attacking directly.

 

[John Agar]

I would be lying if I said I wasn't a bit worried about our ability to generate offense. I do think a large focus was on getting that defensive base in and I am hoping that once they get that down we see our offense pick up.

Some positives in that regard:

Perfetti, Ehlers and Dubois are showing a lot of ability early to drive play into the offensive end.

JoMo and Pionk look to be a pairing that can drive a lot of looks.

The worrying things I see:

Third line doesn't look all that dangerous offensively.

Scheifele's play driving. He's playing much better, but I am wondering if we overestimated his ability to drive play due to Wheeler being elite at it prior to 2020. These last few games without an elite driver have been eye opening. He's still lethal in the ozone when possession is established and he's rounding out his d game so he should still contribute but it looks like he needs someone to push the puck into the ozone for him.

Conner follows his centers lead instead of taking charge. Dubois played more quickly and more direct and he excelled playing that style. He's matched Mark's more slow play cycle game and I don't think he's as good at it as he is playing fast and attacking directly.

Surix' you are spot on...

Keep up the good 'work'... work is fun when it's fun... then it's not work...

 

[Buffdog]

It sucks that when he finally gets Line 1 and PP1 time he immediately gets injured
Hope he's back ASAP

Pomo knew he couldn't handle it

 

[garret9]

Maybe I will have to switch to one of those sites if they account for that.

Just as an FYI: Those sites won't really impact game shot charts (possible exception: HV heat maps, I'm unsure, but I think Micah has the data massaged somewhat). Shot charts are showing what they got from data. But, they will impact single game xG models and season level heat maps and such.

 

[LowLefty]

I would be lieing if I said I wasn't a bit worried about our ability to generate offense. I do think a large focus was on getting that defensive base in and I am hoping that once they get that down we see our offense pick up.

Some positives in that regard:

Perfetti, Ehlers and Dubois are showing a lot of ability early to drive play into the offensive end.

JoMo and Pionk look to be a pairing that can drive a lot of looks.

The worrying things I see:

Third line doesn't look all that dangerous offensively.

Scheifele's play driving. He's playing much better but I am wondering if we overestimated his ability to drive play due to Wheeler being elite at it prior to 2020. These last few games without an elite driver have been eye opening. He's still lethal in the ozone when possesion is established and he's rounding out his d game so he should still contribute but it looks like he needs someone to push the puck into the ozone for him.

Conner follows his centers lead instead of taking charge. Dubois played more quickly and more direct and he excelled playing that style. He's matched Mark's more slow play cycle game and I don't think he's as good at it as he is playing fast and attacking directly.

They need Ehlers to make the first line work - he's the play driver / zone entry wizard.
What he isn't, is a playmaker - but he could be if he can break the habit of hanging onto the puck.
I think he'll get there once he realizes who he is playing with and how much damage they can do if they start throwing the puck around at high speed.

KC's game is similar to Scheifs in that they both love to manage the puck once they have the zone. Both are good along the walls and in tight spots - they are also lethal shooters that know how to find open space.
I don't think either of them is great on their own off the rush (like Ehlers).

Ehlers need to be the puck carrier and playmaker - and that will require a shift in his game.
These guys are still sorting it out - I think it'll come with more time together.