Final Top 50 OHL Prospects for the 2020 NHL Draft

[Steve Kournianos]

I think there’s a lot of over-scouting with Foudy. Almost everyone says he’s more talented than his brother, and despite having a bad draft year, he was still more productive than his brother. Liam was probably slightly over-drafted in hindsight, but I see it really hard to justify Foudy outside of the first round.

There’s a point in every draft where the talent drops off and you don’t have a choice of players with high ceilings, unless you take one of the polarizing players. With a kid like Foudy, we are talking about an elite speed, skill, playmaking combination. It’s easily a top six ceiling because of those three attributes. Some of the things people mention are quintessential over-scouting.

Some of these guys have real big weaknesses in their game like skating issues, a bad hockey IQ, weak playmaking. The majority of people that criticize Foudy are criticizing very minor things, like over-handling the puck, perimeter playing style, play off the puck, teammates not keeping up well with him in OHL.

I have no problem with his stock slipping a little due to not having a good season. Players that don’t have good seasons usually slip, but I think there comes a point where you can’t have him slip past because he’s too talented, and the upside of players in that range simply isn’t high enough to justify ranking ahead of him.

Not a fan which sucks because I wanted to keep him high up. He creates a lot but the finish was barely there. Personally I’m of the opinion that OHL first-round picks should have close to 100-point potential for their draft+1 season but in Foudy I think there’s no chance.

 

[Brock]

I think there’s a lot of over-scouting with Foudy. Almost everyone says he’s more talented than his brother, and despite having a bad draft year, he was still more productive than his brother. Liam was probably slightly over-drafted in hindsight, but I see it really hard to justify Foudy outside of the first round.

There’s a point in every draft where the talent drops off and you don’t have a choice of players with high ceilings, unless you take one of the polarizing players. With a kid like Foudy, we are talking about an elite speed, skill, playmaking combination. It’s easily a top six ceiling because of those three attributes. Some of the things people mention are quintessential over-scouting.

Some of these guys have real big weaknesses in their game like skating issues, a bad hockey IQ, weak playmaking. The majority of people that criticize Foudy are criticizing very minor things, like over-handling the puck, perimeter playing style, play off the puck, teammates not keeping up well with him in OHL.

I have no problem with his stock slipping a little due to not having a good season. Players that don’t have good seasons usually slip, but I think there comes a point where you can’t have him slip past because he’s too talented, and the upside of players in that range simply isn’t high enough to justify ranking ahead of him.

I definitely see what you're saying.

I won't disagree with him possibly being overscouted and over criticized. Part of the issue is that lack of progression in Windsor, as a whole. The organization has struggled to develop players in some recent years after being a factory for the last decade.

The thing with Liam, is that, IMO, he had (and has) a higher floor than his brother. Jean Luc may have the higher ceiling because of his creativity, but he's way less likely to reach it because Liam is (and was as a draft eligible player) a much more engaged player without the puck. He uses his speed very effectively on the forecheck, as a PK'er, and to drive the middle. Where as Jean Luc is neutralized on the perimeter.

Here's where you lost me though:

"Some of these guys have real big weaknesses in their game like skating issues, a bad hockey IQ, weak playmaking. The majority of people that criticize Foudy are criticizing very minor things, like over-handling the puck, perimeter playing style, play off the puck, teammates not keeping up well with him in OHL."

I don't see those as minor things at all. For me, those would be major red flags. His overhandling of the puck and inability to slow the game down for his linemates shows a lack of high end vision and hockey sense. It's push, push, push, but what happens in the NHL when defenders bottle him up and he can't beat players with his feet? This is what happened with Rico Fata in the NHL. He could only play at a higher tempo and just didn't have the vision to compensate otherwise. Additionally, a perimeter playing style and play off the puck means to me, that he is less likely to develop into a bottom six player at the NHL level. So there's this high ceiling, but a low floor. He's the classic boom/bust selection for me.

I'll say that I do agree that given his skill set, he shouldn't fall past the second round. But he's a 45-60ish player for me in this draft.

 

[Brock]

One thing about Tullio - I probably overrate him but I really like the fact that he earned a top-line job with while his dad is the owner. He was criticized/pressured a little for how high he went in the OHL draft but he lived up to it. Have no idea what his coaches or teammates think but nobody can deny how good he was.

Tullio is a tough one for me. I loved watching him in MM with that strong Vaughan Kings team (where he worked so well alongside Cole Perfetti).

He's always noticeable when you watch Oshawa. I also think that his true upside and playmaking ability may have been hidden playing alongside guys like Tomasino and Neumann. Sometimes I felt like he was just playing keep up with them, or was tasked as a grunt; retrieve the puck, drive the net, open space.

He's just a very well rounded player who thinks the game at a high level. My concern is, is he more than a tweener? His skill set is good, but I wouldn't classify it as elite. Additionally, he's undersized and not an elite skater (good, but not high end). So what is he at the NHL level? Is he a complimentary scoring line player? Is he a third liner who can be a jack of all trades? Is he more of a high end AHL scorer? I really just don't know.

Again, I do really like him and enjoy watching him play. But I also do have concerns over projection. For that reason, I tried to balance those two things in my ranking by placing him in that late 2nd, early 3rd round range.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I definitely see what you're saying.

I won't disagree with him possibly being overscouted and over criticized. Part of the issue is that lack of progression in Windsor, as a whole. The organization has struggled to develop players in some recent years after being a factory for the last decade.

The thing with Liam, is that, IMO, he had (and has) a higher floor than his brother. Jean Luc may have the higher ceiling because of his creativity, but he's way less likely to reach it because Liam is (and was as a draft eligible player) a much more engaged player without the puck. He uses his speed very effectively on the forecheck, as a PK'er, and to drive the middle. Where as Jean Luc is neutralized on the perimeter.

Here's where you lost me though:

"Some of these guys have real big weaknesses in their game like skating issues, a bad hockey IQ, weak playmaking. The majority of people that criticize Foudy are criticizing very minor things, like over-handling the puck, perimeter playing style, play off the puck, teammates not keeping up well with him in OHL."

I don't see those as minor things at all. For me, those would be major red flags. His overhandling of the puck and inability to slow the game down for his linemates shows a lack of high end vision and hockey sense. It's push, push, push, but what happens in the NHL when defenders bottle him up and he can't beat players with his feet? This is what happened with Rico Fata in the NHL. He could only play at a higher tempo and just didn't have the vision to compensate otherwise. Additionally, a perimeter playing style and play off the puck means to me, that he is less likely to develop into a bottom six player at the NHL level. So there's this high ceiling, but a low floor. He's the classic boom/bust selection for me.

I'll say that I do agree that given his skill set, he shouldn't fall past the second round. But he's a 45-60ish player for me in this draft.

The things I mentioned that I see as the areas of criticism are more in-game micro-situational aspects of hockey. I think those are a lot more fixable and a lot less of a problem than having a major weakness in one of the main 5-6 tools. Let’s face it, if you are a bad skater or have bad hands at age 18, it’s almost never going to be above average at the NHL level. That’s going to be something that follows your career, even if you improve it to no longer being a weakness.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting these aren’t things that need fixing, but I think the skillset analysis comes first. These are all still prospects, the micro-aspects you see game to game in junior hockey could be completely different in a few years and are usually on the whole extremely fixable in a way that the major tools are not.

Projecting the tools is usually still the best way of projecting the success of players. That’s not to say these micro-aspects you see in-game don’t matter. When a player doesn’t have success with consistency, despite having a lack of real big tool weaknesses, there’s usually some bigger issue that people are missing in evaluating the tools or maybe a character/work-ethic issue.

For now though, I see Foudy’s season as a player whose game is still there as a top level talent, and a disappointing season that included injuries, playing through injuries, some bad puck luck, maybe some wider problems with the team, is leading to people looking for things wrong with his game. When we can’t come up with any of the major tools as a problem, we start looking to the micro-aspects. That’s what I mean when I say we are over-scouting his season.

 

[Brock]

The things I mentioned that I see as the areas of criticism are more in-game micro-situational aspects of hockey. I think those are a lot more fixable and a lot less of a problem than having a major weakness in one of the main 5-6 tools. Let’s face it, if you are a bad skater or have bad hands at age 18, it’s almost never going to be above average at the NHL level. That’s going to be something that follows your career, even if you improve it to no longer being a weakness.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting these aren’t things that need fixing, but I think the skillset analysis comes first. These are all still prospects, the micro-aspects you see game to game in junior hockey could be completely different in a few years and are usually on the whole extremely fixable in a way that the major tools are not.

Projecting the tools is usually still the best way of projecting the success of players. That’s not to say these micro-aspects you see in-game don’t matter. When a player doesn’t have success with consistency, despite having a lack of real big tool weaknesses, there’s usually some bigger issue that people are missing in evaluating the tools or maybe a character/work-ethic issue.

For now though, I see Foudy’s season as a player whose game is still there as a top level talent, and a disappointing season that included injuries, playing through injuries, some bad puck luck, maybe some wider problems with the team, is leading to people looking for things wrong with his game. When we can’t come up with any of the major tools as a problem, we start looking to the micro-aspects. That’s what I mean when I say we are over-scouting his season.

Won't disagree with anything that you've said.

However, tools are great, but if you don't have the toolbox, it can be hard to utilize them. And that's where scouts seem to be divisive on Foudy. Does he think the game well enough to be able to utilize some of his physical gifts?

 

[bert]

I think there’s a lot of over-scouting with Foudy. Almost everyone says he’s more talented than his brother, and despite having a bad draft year, he was still more productive than his brother. Liam was probably slightly over-drafted in hindsight, but I see it really hard to justify Foudy outside of the first round.

Can you explain to my why Liam Foudy in your opinion was over-drafted? He was the best player on the ice for Canada in more than one game at the WJC, even earned a call up to the NHL last year and has increased his production substantially year by year. The eye test really has shown substantial progression on both sides of the puck in my viewings. Maybe I am missing something, can you please elaborate?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Can you explain to my why Liam Foudy in your opinion was over-drafted? He was the best player on the ice for Canada in more than one game at the WJC, even earned a call up to the NHL last year and has increased his production substantially year by year. The eye test really has shown substantial progression on both sides of the puck in my viewings. Maybe I am missing something, can you please elaborate?

I think history shows that there’s a drop off in most drafts around 20, and 2018 was a good draft, so it might be after that.

I think we can approach this two ways, pre-draft and post-draft. Pre-draft, he’s one of the least statistically productive players you’ll see picked in the first round. Part of that is a small role, so you are banking on projection, but it was a risky pick. The skillset is intriguing as a center with great speed and good size. There’s some offense there. The question was how much. I think at that spot in 2018, there were players with more potential.

Post-draft, it’d be a good question where he falls. Personally, he wouldn’t be within my top 20. And maybe not in the top 31. He’ll probably play in the NHL as a 3rd line center, but I think you are talking about a player that lacks high-end upside, and probably doesn’t have the points in his game to be more than a third line guy. You’ll often take a contributor in the first round, but I think the lack of offensive upside in a good draft makes it such that it was an incorrect gamble. Not terribly so, but I don’t think he’s the 18th best player in this draft right now.

 

[bert]

I think history shows that there’s a drop off in most drafts around 20, and 2018 was a good draft, so it might be after that.

I think we can approach this two ways, pre-draft and post-draft. Pre-draft, he’s one of the least statistically productive players you’ll see picked in the first round. Part of that is a small role, so you are banking on projection, but it was a risky pick. The skillset is intriguing as a center with great speed and good size. There’s some offense there. The question was how much. I think at that spot in 2018, there were players with more potential.

Post-draft, it’d be a good question where he falls. Personally, he wouldn’t be within my top 20. And maybe not in the top 31. He’ll probably play in the NHL as a 3rd line center, but I think you are talking about a player that lacks high-end upside, and probably doesn’t have the points in his game to be more than a third line guy. You’ll often take a contributor in the first round, but I think the lack of offensive upside in a good draft makes it such that it was an incorrect gamble. Not terribly so, but I don’t think he’s the 18th best player in this draft right now.

That's interesting you feel that way. I think he is going to be a terrific two way player in the NHL and the type of guy you want on your team in the playoffs. He is always noticable when I watch and contributes in every facet of the game. I think he can definitely be a 2nd line guy but also has the versatility to carry a third line and likely matchup against the other teams top lines. I dont agree with your assesment but I appreciate you explaining it,

 

[DontEverTouchMyPuck]

Really good write-up and notes. Nore than anything, I appreciate your insight into the thought process. Everyone brings their own values, preferences, etc to player assessment.

Loved listening to your internal debate between Byfield and Drysdale. Count me as one who thinks it should be Drysdale on top. Hockey IQ, poise, great vision. He's a future NHL Captain, IMO. I didn't like seeing Byfield turn it on and off during shifts, giving less than 100% at all times. To me, it points to self-motivation, drive, etc. Or maybe I'm wrong, and he is the adult playing with kids that doesn't always need to give it 100%.

Vierling is interesting to me. I don't agree that he should be that high,. HOWEVER, it won't surprise me if he goes that early. Kid has skills, for sure. But his "quitting" on Flint points to either a lack of mental maturity or "me-first" attitude. Either one is a red flag in my mind. It's like handicapping horses in a race: you have reed flags that make you toss a horse out of consideration. If I was a pro team, quitting would be one of those. I don't think NHL teams want to raise other people's children.

JL Foudy is one that I just don't get. Personally, I dislike his style of play, since he wastes a lot of puck control time that results in a turnover more often than not. I watched a lot of games in Windsor and listened to the crowd moan and complain every time he carried the puck. He circles and circles while teammates stand around. The problem is his head doesn't come up enough while he's doing it. If he had the hockey IQ of Evangelista or the awareness of Perfetti, he would be picking up another 30 assists. To me, it is a selfish style of play, which is my biggest problem with his brother's game, too. And he plays for a team that actually, at one point, designed their Power Play scheme for him to pick up the puck at their red line and go coast to coast. That is NOT a team that is looking to settle down his style of play and make him more well-rounded, IMO.

Your Quinn v Rossi toss-up seems to be just that. Pick 'em. I prefer Quinn, but you had some excellent insight - it really depends on what style of play you value going forward. You're right on that.

Nice job.

 

[Brock]

Really good write-up and notes. Nore than anything, I appreciate your insight into the thought process. Everyone brings their own values, preferences, etc to player assessment.


Vierling is interesting to me. I don't agree that he should be that high,. HOWEVER, it won't surprise me if he goes that early. Kid has skills, for sure. But his "quitting" on Flint points to either a lack of mental maturity or "me-first" attitude. Either one is a red flag in my mind. It's like handicapping horses in a race: you have reed flags that make you toss a horse out of consideration. If I was a pro team, quitting would be one of those. I don't think NHL teams want to raise other people's children.

Nice job.

My thinking on Vierling (and any other CHL player who asks for a trade) is this: How soon we forget that these are kids. Yes, we ask them to play in a pro style environment and take a professional approach to the game, but we're also asking them to leave home and live with strangers at a young age. In Vierling's case, we're also asking him to move to a different country. He could have simply refused to report to Flint in the first place, like other OHL players have done, but he gave it go and it's obvious that he just wasn't happy.

Of course he'll have to answer questions about it from NHL teams during interviews, as he should. But if it's home sickness, I never hold it against kids. Maybe it's the educator in me, but mental health is such a big component to youth development. As he matures as a young man, he'd be better prepared to make sacrifices to play professionally.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Agree with your take that Quinn has joined the Rossi/Perfetti tier. As a Habs fan, I think I’d prefer him over either. He checks all the boxes and is a high floor player, yet still has elite skill giving him a tremendous ceiling. I’ve heard some say he could be a fast Mark Stone, and the thought of that type of player is a beautiful thing.

 

[Brock]

Agree with your take that Quinn has joined the Rossi/Perfetti tier. As a Habs fan, I think I’d prefer him over either. He checks all the boxes and is a high floor player, yet still has elite skill giving him a tremendous ceiling. I’ve heard some say he could be a fast Mark Stone, and the thought of that type of player is a beautiful thing.

I'm not sure I'd use the word fast to describe Quinn. His skating has improved a lot over the last few years, but he's still only an average to slightly above average mover overall. He is certainly not an explosive forward mover. In this way, his stride is somewhat similar to Stone (or a kid like Tyler Toffoli when he was drafted).

Even though he's a late birthday, he's still physically immature though. Lots of room to add strength and improve his stride and explosiveness further.