Fertitta : " Hockey struggles south of the Mason-Dixon Line, and it's a fact"

[Killion]

An NHL franchise is not worth 650 million imo. There is no TV contract to justify that. Mostly because of what you have mentioned. This shouldn't affect a bid unless jacobs is as thin skinned as people here say he is.

... indeed not.... at least certainly not outside of just about the only market in North America that an owner could recoup that kind of an investment during his lifetime if young enough, and that would be Southern Ontario..... one also has to wonder that had Foley known that the NFL was on the immediate horizon... not to mention that MGM CEO Jim Murren in October 2016 in an interview said he's working on securing an NBA Franchise for T-Mobile, and not by way of Expansion.. the situation with Seattle at $650M is being driven by NHL insiders (Jacobs, Leiweke & OVG) and tied to the renovation of the former Key Arena so on several levels that price tag while high can be absorbed, already a preexisting hockey culture in the market, lots of history, huge thirst for the product. But; its still high. $350M or $400M more reasonable, a better reflection of actual valuation.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Well, that was 40 years ago (a WHA team I think). So, to most of their potential fan base, they would have to be introduced.

no it's not, AF24, IS CORRECT,Atlanta, the Aeros name would've disappeared then when both the WHA and IHL ceased to exist, and until the owner/operators aka the Wild VIA ITS OWNERSHIP Corporation (Minnesota Sports/Entertainment) BOUGHT WHAT THEY DIDN'T already own, the 20% OWNED BY Chuck Watson, ALTHOUGH WHETHER a side deal existed between MSE regarding the name Aeros ARE STILL owned by them is not known when the deal to relocate them to Iowa occurred.

 

[Killion]

It sounds like a negotiation to me. Foley paid 500 million to be south of the Mason-Dixon line (if it were to extend that that far west).

Tillman has all of the leverage with the league here. This is a market the league has wanted for a long time and he controls the only suitable venue in the area. On top of this he doesn't NEED 44 plus new dates at any price-point. Sometimes less is more.

Ya, this is the thing to.... he could actually be negotiating through the media, sending a message to Bettman that "hey Man, hockey's not a sure bet south of the Mason-Dixon & your asking for a huge chunk of change, best be sharpening your pencil"... I did consider that, wont discount that as a possibility. Could easily see the NHL affixing a price tag of $650M to the Coyotes. That buying them is actually a steal as you also get player contracts etc, heck, we'll even throw in the Roadrunners for the same price as a bare bones Expansion Team. Or maybe he's being offered 49 or 51%, Barroway comes with, and either not interested & wants majority or maybe balking at an investment of $300M-$350M... But I sure as shootin dont see him paying $650M. No way. Wouldnt be the first to use the media to send a message.

 

[MNNumbers]

I agree that this is part of the negotiations for the coyotes. However, having said this publicly, I think it makes such a transaction much more difficult.

How do you walk back those comments and then purchase s team and try to market what you said doesn't have a market?

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Well, that was 40 years ago (a WHA team I think). So, to most of their potential fan base, they would have to be introduced.

They lost the Aeros in 2013.

 

[Melrose Munch]

Except hockey appears to be doing very well in Nashville. Tampa Bay has been successful. Carolina had been successful in the past. Vegas has been hugely successful so far.

My take-away is that hockey can succeed in non-traditional markets where there is not substantial conflict with other sports (and more importantly, basketball). All of the markets I mentioned the team does not go up against basketball. Whereas in Miami, Phoenix, Dallas... there is a NBA franchise to compete against.

Except Dallas has done great since they came in, on and off the ice. The panthers and Yotes have been terrible since their inception. Performance of the new team is the most important part in winning the support of the local casual fan.

Of course, having the NBA doesn't matter. It didn't in Chicago.
But zetastrike, I have to ask you, whats your response to the OP given that it came from the Rockets owner and not someone in the canadian media or here? To me he is just driving down the price.

... indeed not.... at least certainly not outside of just about the only market in North America that an owner could recoup that kind of an investment during his lifetime if young enough, and that would be Southern Ontario..... one also has to wonder that had Foley known that the NFL was on the immediate horizon... not to mention that MGM CEO Jim Murren in October 2016 in an interview said he's working on securing an NBA Franchise for T-Mobile, and not by way of Expansion.. the situation with Seattle at $650M is being driven by NHL insiders (Jacobs, Leiweke & OVG) and tied to the renovation of the former Key Arena so on several levels that price tag while high can be absorbed, already a preexisting hockey culture in the market, lots of history, huge thirst for the product. But; its still high. $350M or $400M more reasonable, a better reflection of actual valuation.

I absoulutely agree, and frankly $250 million would be better to get an owner off the ground in the black.

 

[zetajerk]

Of course, having the NBA doesn't matter. It didn't in Chicago.
But zetastrike, I have to ask you, whats your response to the OP given that it came from the Rockets owner and not someone in the canadian media or here? To me he is just driving down the price.

I absoulutely agree, and frankly $250 million would be better to get an owner off the ground in the black.

Oh yeah, I totally read it as "I'm not paying 650mil for the privilege of putting out your fire." And he shouldn't. If the yotes ultimately leave Arizona, then I hope the league takes one in the chin for it.

 

[Melrose Munch]

Oh yeah, I totally read it as "I'm not paying 650mil for the privilege of putting out your fire." And he shouldn't. If the yotes ultimately leave Arizona, then I hope the league takes one in the chin for it.

Agreed. I hope the market corrects itself and he can get one at a cheaper rate. Same with Portland.

 

[gstommylee]

Oh yeah, I totally read it as "I'm not paying 650mil for the privilege of putting out your fire." And he shouldn't. If the yotes ultimately leave Arizona, then I hope the league takes one in the chin for it.

They are going to have to. Expanding is essentially allowing the team to set a price that they want. Having to desperately relocate a team to another region, they dont have any leverage unless its to another market and to keep it 16/16 the only real option is Houston unless they are willing to accept an even lower sale/relocation fee to where Portland will be happy with.

Unfortunately Portland in itself will create an alignment nightmare.

Agreed. I hope the market corrects itself and he can get one at a cheaper rate. Same with Portland.

Unfortunately like I said if coyotes end to in Portland for example and not Houston, You run into a problem of who moves to central division.

 

[Killion]

Unfortunately like I said if coyotes end to in Portland for example and not Houston, You run into a problem of who moves to central division.

I'm not seeing Paul Allen buying an existing NHL franchise & moving them to Portland never mind applying for an Expansion team @ $500M let alone $650M. He's experienced, he's got experienced executives on his team, several with NHL backgrounds and no, just no way. These guys, Paul Allen & now seemingly Fertitta.... they didnt all fall off the back of a Tuna boat. Theyve crunched the numbers, not about to over-pay by about 100% for an existent or non-existent NHL franchise. Numbers dont pencil out given their particular situations & neither one of them driven enough by ego that it would overrule common sense, basic economic modeling & realities. The NHL has priced itself out of almost every single market in North America without a team, in places that most would agree they should be, and I would suggest that absolutely includes Portland & of course, Houston.... Seattle, thats a different animal altogether.

 

[gstommylee]

I'm not seeing Paul Allen buying an existing NHL franchise & moving them to Portland never mind applying for an Expansion team @ $500M let alone $650M. He's experienced, he's got experienced executives on his team, several with NHL backgrounds and no, just no way. These guys, Paul Allen & now seemingly Fertitta.... they didnt all fall off the back of a Tuna boat. Theyve crunched the numbers, not about to over-pay by about 100% for an existent or non-existent NHL franchise. Numbers dont pencil out given their particular situations & neither one of them driven enough by ego that it would overrule common sense, basic economic modeling & realities. The NHL has priced itself out of almost every single market in North America without a team, in places that most would agree they should be, and I would suggest that absolutely includes Portland & of course, Houston.... Seattle, thats a different animal altogether.

Agreed and if NHL has to relocate teams that price is going to drop big time. And i have a feeling that's what is going to happen.

 

[MNNumbers]

Not to jump in here.

But, remember, there was a vague comment by Bettman about the possibility of Seattle getting a relocation.

Does this news fit that narrative?

 

[Jumptheshark]

Hockey struggles in Washington and St. Louis?

Nashville and BJS?

 

[superdeluxe]

Portland is back in the game as landing spot?

 

[Melrose Munch]

Portland is back in the game as landing spot?

Once the price comes down, and it will, they will have to beg paul to take a team.

 

[gstommylee]

Portland is back in the game as landing spot?

No. Nothing has changed in that regards. I only mention cause Portland has a similar issue as with Houston price is just way too high. The price has to drop.

 

[MNNumbers]

Exactly, everyone. The price has to drop. That's the problem here. The price is simply too high. But, having placed the price point where it is, it will take catastrophe to bring it down...

 

[Killion]

Not to jump in here.

But, remember, there was a vague comment by Bettman about the possibility of Seattle getting a relocation.

Does this news fit that narrative?

Yes, glove fits... but so too, its a possibility that it's also a fit for Seattle... and yes, based on Bettmans comments & some comments made by Bruckheimer. So the NHL has options, very much in the drivers seat.... and I really dont think Bettman's going to appreciate Fertittas comments about the Mason~Dixon, being reminded of their failures, that theres a pattern or that its a lot more difficult to gain take-off & altitude in a southern market & that he, Tilman Fertitta should therefore receive a big fat discount (obviously unsaid but you just gotta figure it's the Coyotes). The suggestion, very thought that he'd be dropping $650M in order to get in through Expansion seems rather ludicrous no? So who else could he be referencing if not Arizona?... Calgary?

 

[nickp91]

if the NHL could bring a preseason game to Toyota Center, that would be HUGE for hockey in Houston I think NHL will draw well in Houston We did better than them in AHL attendance, so I think we’d do well in NHL attendance

 

[Killion]

if the NHL could bring a preseason game to Toyota Center, that would be HUGE for hockey in Houston I think NHL will draw well in Houston We did better than them in AHL attendance, so I think we’d do well in NHL attendance

Yeah I dont think your going to get many arguments from people here that Houston's not a viable NHL market, certainly not from me. They shouldve' been in since 1979/80 IMO but... got screwed over. And that was 38yrs ago. The markets only grown, gotten a whole lot bigger & better since. Thats not the issue. The issue is cost of entry and that is absolutely an obstacle and shouldnt be. But, as is so typical of the NHL, greed, short term thinking & gain, if an ownership group coughs it up long term pain saddled with a massive debt through purchase. The numbers just arent there to support a $500M or $650M outlay unless right out of the box you surpass & then lap MLSE & the NY Rangers with gate, local broadcast & other revenue streams & thats simply not going to happen.

 

[gstommylee]

I believe once team #32 aka Seattle is granted an official then we'll more likely see relocation movement at some point. Right now there is still an team spot open so the price is 650m and only 1 market (seattle) has agreed to pay that price. They aren't going to talk relocation as long as that team 32 spot remains open and technically speaking it is still open pending finalization of the arena in and announcement of NHL Seattle by the league.

Once #32 team is official done deal announced by league then the clock is ticking on coyotes and maybe the flames.

In terms of relocation that involves a sale/relocation, NHL does not control the leverage there unless there is some western city that is willing to pay 650m+, (outside of Seattle) when in reality there isn't any. Its going to remain 16 western city and 16 eastern cities.

Only thing NHL has control over is where the team ends up and no western city team will move out east.

 

[TheLegend]

Hockey struggles in Washington and St. Louis?

Or Tampa.... or Nashville....

Awwwwww, shucky darn...looks like we'll have to add yet another city to the long list of places the Coyotes aren't going:

Hamilton
Winnipeg
Quebec
Portland
Seattle
Kansas City
Las Vegas
Seattle (again)
Houston

The only thing we’re missing from here are the FlightAware reports.

 

[TheLegend]

I agree that this is part of the negotiations for the coyotes. However, having said this publicly, I think it makes such a transaction much more difficult.

How do you walk back those comments and then purchase s team and try to market what you said doesn't have a market?

You can’t. Not if you’re the BoG and you just took $500M from Foley for Vegas and Dundon forking over the same for Carolina (not to mention $650M from OVG for Seattle) and now have a guy now who wants to low ball his way in.

 

[gstommylee]

You can’t. Not if you’re the BoG and you just took $500M from Foley for Vegas and Dundon forking over the same for Carolina (not to mention $650M from OVG for Seattle) and now have a guy now who wants to low ball his way in.

Here's the problem Seattle is the last major market that is willing to pay that kind of money with out forcing Detroit and/or Columbus back west (neither will happen).

There is no western city out there anymore that will pay that kind of money. You either forced to stay in arenas that just won't do anymore (coyotes and at some point the flames) or lower the price and relocate the team.

NHL has no leverage to demand that kind of a price on a relocation of a team where the alternative is being stuck in a market that isn't going to be building a new arena when the team needs one. The price will drop.

 

[Siludin]

Once Seattle has a team for even a couple of years, Portland will change their tune. I imagine the folks from Portland have a healthy enough rivalry with Seattle (especially on the soccer field), and enough of an appetite for hockey. Seattle/Vancouver/Portland will be the SJ/LA/ANA of the Northwest.