Fantasy Mock Draft Part 3

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LT

Global Moderator
Jul 23, 2010
41,777
13,319
I knew it was naive to hope for one of Marino/Hronek/Kubalik/Olofsson falling...

There goes my list...
 
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Nucker101

Foundational Poster
Apr 2, 2013
21,156
16,632
But after the entire draft is over a 1-2 day window to make player only trades wouldn’t be that bad an idea
Some people will probably complain that they would’ve drafted differently if they knew they could trade.
 

Panda Bear

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
6,581
5,722
PandaScores 2.0



Please note that while PandaScores 2.0 are a perfect representation of every player and carries no inherent flaws whatsoever, they're merely pretty good but not perfect. For example, KentNilsson's team, Calgary, is likely better than #24. Panda's team, Chicago, is likely even better than #1.
 
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McDrai

Registered User
Mar 29, 2009
24,185
18,796
Cracked the top 10 #Pandascores

download.jpeg
 

BeLeafing

Registered User
Jun 5, 2017
2,165
3,447
I'll take 4th for now, I feel like I'm drafting better than last time to this point but lots of time left
 

Panda Bear

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
6,581
5,722
Please note the outrageous advantage picking in the top half of the draft gives you for first round selections.

Feedback on player scores appreciated.
 
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Horse McHindu

They call me Horse.....
Jun 21, 2014
9,668
2,650
Beijing
Middle of the pack on the Panda list.

I am neither happy nor am I sad.

ps - actually, I am a little sad. I’m missing Two and a Half Men re-runs right now on TV.
 

Canucks LB

My Favourite, Gone too soon, RIP Luc, We miss you
Oct 12, 2008
76,817
29,455
I am on now, sorry, You guys were crazy fast, had no idea i would go twice today
 

BeLeafing

Registered User
Jun 5, 2017
2,165
3,447
Please note the outrageous advantage picking in the top half of the draft gives you for first round selections.

Feedback on player scores appreciated.

Seems like despite the perceived advantage picking at the top, the scores lean heavier towards those who picked later in the draft. Depending on what side you put the Rangers (16th draft slot) on, the average rank of the back half is 3.5-4 spots higher
 

Panda Bear

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
6,581
5,722
Seems like despite the perceived advantage picking at the top, the scores lean heavier towards those who picked later in the draft. Depending on what side you put the Rangers (16th draft slot) on, the average rank of the back half is 3.5-4 spots higher
I have a 25 point difference between the 32nd best and the 62nd best while there's a 140 point difference between #1 versus #32.

PandaScores 2.0 would posit that people at the back end of the draft are just, well, drafting better. If people drafted according to these rankings--even with like a 10% variance--it would be effectively impossible for people in the back half to catch up.
 

Canucks LB

My Favourite, Gone too soon, RIP Luc, We miss you
Oct 12, 2008
76,817
29,455
I would like to give a shout out to the 8 pm's I got to remind me to make my pick :laugh::laugh:

@Makaveli OTC
 

donut

Moderator
Sep 5, 2012
8,089
833
PandaScores 2.0



Please note that while PandaScores 2.0 are a perfect representation of every player and carries no inherent flaws whatsoever, they're merely pretty good but not perfect. For example, KentNilsson's team, Calgary, is likely better than #24. Panda's team, Chicago, is likely even better than #1.


Surprised I'm #11... Not too happy with how my draft has been thus far, would definitely change a few of my picks if I had the chance :popcorn:
 

Panda Bear

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
6,581
5,722
You may have mentioned this earlier @Panda Bear but what did you change for the rankings from the first one?
Right. It's been overhauled a lot.

The first time around, I did something like this:
  • CF% * 0.345
  • CF% rel * 0.345
  • DF% * 0.462
  • DF% rel * 0.462
  • GF%
  • PDO-adjusted points per game
  • TOI vs elite competition
Turns out the CF% to GF% correlation this year is like 0.182, so that was flat out wrong. None of the stats were score- or venue-adjusted. I decided that CF%, DF% and GF%--even if isolated to the player's time on ice--are too broad/team-oriented. No positional scarcity was accounted for.
 
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