Fantasy GM Thread | Off-Season has Begun Edition

[Mr. Canucklehead]

With the off-season officially beginning, figured we could use a new thread.

Click to read more...

 

[MS]

He would need to be traded for, so maybe the Canes would want some of our signed depth back instead. If Poolman wasn't hurt he would be an obvious candidate as Carolina would get Term vs more upside. So I could see something if they think they can get something.

I think the rumour is that Bear isn't going to get a QO from Carolina. He's going to require a $2.5 million QO from a contending team where he's their 7th defender - I don't think there's any way they do that.

To me at that salary he's a negative value asset - no different than Poolman at the same salary.

If he's a UFA and you can sign him for $1.3 or something it's a different story.

 

[racerjoe]

I think the rumour is that Bear isn't going to get a QO from Carolina. He's going to require a $2.5 million QO from a contending team where he's their 7th defender - I don't think there's any way they do that.

To me at that salary he's a negative value asset - no different than Poolman at the same salary.

If he's a UFA and you can sign him for $1.3 or something it's a different story.

That's fair, he is a player I would really like to take a flyer on, I just want it to be a flyer and not an entire book.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Waiting for #bearwatch #bearsightinginbc

 

[Diablo2020]

Nils Hoglander
Jack Rathbone
Michael Ferland
Tucker Poolman
for
Brandon Carlo
Jake Debrusk

($6,891,667 plus Rathbone's RFA contract for $8,100,000)

Canucks gets some grit and goals up front and a long-term partner for Hughes or OEL signed for 5 years.

Bruins get some cap flexibility with Nils being able to be sent down to start the season while they juggle LTIR contracts, and Rathbone can help replace some of the LHD injuries to start the season.

 

[StickShift]

Nils Hoglander
Jack Rathbone
Michael Ferland
Tucker Poolman
for
Brandon Carlo
Jake Debrusk

($6,891,667 plus Rathbone's RFA contract for $8,100,000)

Canucks gets some grit and goals up front and a long-term partner for Hughes or OEL signed for 5 years.

Bruins get some cap flexibility with Nils being able to be sent down to start the season while they juggle LTIR contracts, and Rathbone can help replace some of the LHD injuries to start the season.

I don’t hate the value of Höglander/Rathbone for Carlo/DeBrusk—but that would be a Benning-esque exchange of youth for help right now.

 

[Vector]

Did he wink when he said the last part?

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Did he wink when he said the last part?

Maybe Johnson got a peek at what Millers agent is asking..If it’s outrageous the Canucks may not even bother to negotiate..?

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Everyone and their grandma knows Miller is going to get traded.

 

[Vector]

Maybe Johnson got a peek at what Millers agent is asking..If it’s outrageous the Canucks may not even bother to negotiate..?

It’s a pretty quick negotiation from the get go. “We want market value.” Which means he wants what Zibanejad got and all reports are the Canucks don’t want to do that price or term. Don’t even really need to actually exchange numbers.

 

[iceburg]

It’s a pretty quick negotiation from the get go. “We want market value.” Which means he wants what Zibanejad got and all reports are the Canucks don’t want to do that price or term. Don’t even really need to actually exchange numbers.

While Miller's camp would definitely argue that the Zibanejad comp is market, I view it as an overpayment. Zib has had a 40 goal season and two 30 goal seasons. Miller is coming off a career year where he scored 32. His next best was 27 two years ago and 22 after that, 6 years ago. Last year Miller scored 15 goals. He definitely did well for himself having a career year but paying him for that expectation is a huge risk.

All that said, I wouldn't be surprised if Miller plays hardball. It makes no sense for him to take a discount. He's from the States and I'm sure would be quite happy to play in an american city with a lower tax bracket. .

 

[MS]

While Miller's camp would definitely argue that the Zibanejad comp is market, I view it as an overpayment. Zib has had a 40 goal season and two 30 goal seasons. Miller is coming off a career year where he scored 32. His next best was 27 two years ago and 22 after that, 6 years ago. Last year Miller scored 15 goals. He definitely did well for himself having a career year but paying him for that expectation is a huge risk.

All that said, I wouldn't be surprised if Miller plays hardball. It makes no sense for him to take a discount. He's from the States and I'm sure would be quite happy to play in an american city with a lower tax bracket. .

Over the last 3 seasons, Miller has averaged 88 points/82 GP and Zibanejad has averaged 87/82. They're about as close as you can get as comparables.

 

[iceburg]

Over the last 3 seasons, Miller has averaged 88 points/82 GP and Zibanejad has averaged 87/82. They're about as close as you can get as comparables.

Sure Miller has more assists. Goals are valued more highly for wingers though. But I can't disagree it's the best comp as comps go, since Zib just signed. There's more variability year over year so the most recent precedent is usually the best. Still think Zib > Miller.

Edit: I guess the fact that Miller also plays centre would increase his value IDK

 

[timw33]

Over the last 3 seasons, Miller has averaged 88 points/82 GP and Zibanejad has averaged 87/82. They're about as close as you can get as comparables.

And Couture signed an $8MM x 8 deal 4 years ago (79.5MM cap) at age 29 after putting up ~55-60pts/82GP.

8MM is the absolute floor for Miller, and at least 6 years.

 

[MS]

Sure Miller has more assists. Goals are valued more highly for wingers though. But I can't disagree it's the best comp as comps go, since Zib just signed. There's more variability year over year so the most recent precedent is usually the best. Still think Zib > Miller.

Edit: I guess the fact that Miller also plays centre would increase his value IDK

Both Zibanejad and Miller play C.

And Couture signed an $8MM x 8 deal 4 years ago (79.5MM cap) at age 29 after putting up ~55-60pts/82GP.

8MM is the absolute floor for Miller, and at least 6 years.

Yup. That's the absolute floor, and it could be much higher than that.

 

[Hansen]

On an open market and another 90+ point season Miller could get 10

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

As long as the team acquiring Miller is happy to pay him, could care less about AAV or term.

I want prospects and picks.

But I’m selfish that way.

 

[Hodgy]

Ya, Zibanejad is a good comparison. I think he is slightly more valuable though due to the fact that he has scored more goals, has less perceived mental issues and his contract kicks in a year earlier than Millers despite the fact that they are basically the same age. So, using it as a precedent, I would expect a slightly lower amount for Miller, but I also recognize that Zibanejad may have taken a discount to play in New York as many players do.

 

[David71]

hopefully van finds another puckmover ala bowen byram. what the kid did in the playoffs is surprising to see. eating 21+mins 5 on 5. coming back from a concussion.

 

[Vector]

Tomas Hertl just got 8.137/8 at 28 years old and he averages 65/82GP over the last 3 seasons while also being a C.

 

[Tomatoes11]

I am a huge fan of Zibanjed. Miller not so much. I think Zibanjed is way better but that said, miller is getting paid, even Boeser is to an extent. So trade them both.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

hopefully van finds another puckmover ala bowen byram. what the kid did in the playoffs is surprising to see. eating 21+mins 5 on 5. coming back from a concussion.

Byram is an incredible player, he surprises me every time I watch him play. When he was 15 playing with the Giants, his skating was the best on the team. At 17, he was playing the half-wall as a defenseman in the WHL playoffs on the PP. And now this. You really feel good for the kid. That Colorado team is going to be trouble yet.

 

[Hammer79]

I'm comfortable giving Miller 8 years at $8m AAV, as long as our management doesn't pull another Eriksson and load it with signing bonuses and NMC's to make it unmovable and buyout-proof. If he isn't performing, we do a buyout at the end. By then, the cap will be pushing towards $100m, as the player's escrow 'debt' will be paid and the cap will starting increasing normally. He's easily worth $10m in his prime, but we are buying subprime years to get his prime years at a discount.

We don't need to do a full tear-down rebuild anymore. We have elite players at least 1 per position, we have center depth. We need to fix special teams, bottom 6 (add toughness to help Schenn) and our RHD, but I don't see us being too far off anymore. If we trade Miller though, we are kicking the can down the road a couple of years and there is only so long that we can have EP on a team friendly deal. The chances of us picking a 100 point forward with picks we get back from a Miller trade are low.

 

[Canucker]

I'm comfortable giving Miller 8 years at $8m AAV, as long as our management doesn't pull another Eriksson and load it with signing bonuses and NMC's to make it unmovable and buyout-proof. If he isn't performing, we do a buyout at the end. By then, the cap will be pushing towards $100m, as the player's escrow 'debt' will be paid and the cap will starting increasing normally. He's easily worth $10m in his prime, but we are buying subprime years to get his prime years at a discount.

We don't need to do a full tear-down rebuild anymore. We have elite players at least 1 per position, we have center depth. We need to fix special teams, bottom 6 (add toughness to help Schenn) and our RHD, but I don't see us being too far off anymore. If we trade Miller though, we are kicking the can down the road a couple of years and there is only so long that we can have EP on a team friendly deal. The chances of us picking a 100 point forward with picks we get back from a Miller trade are low.

Personally, I wouldn't be a fan of going 8 years on Miller...I think he's due for a quick regression (just my opinion)...for me, I'm not really expecting to get a 100 point player out of a Miller deal, give me a combination of 3 quality picks/prospects who have the potential to upgrade the lineup and I'll be satisfied.

On a purely fantasy level, I'd be exploring trading both Miller and QH to NJ to see if they'd be willing to overpay to unite the Hughes brothers. Give me a #2 overall (draft Nemec), Hischier, Holtz, Bahl/Smith and a 2023 1st rounder if Miller re-signs, and you can have your brother combo.

 

[Vector]

Here’s a clip of the interview with Johnson. I find it very interesting.