Fan 590's Howard Berger: Contentious debate about draft

[MLH]

Carolina?

Anaheim?

Went to the finals one season and failed to make it the next. Sounds like tanking to me.

Nice of you to not put the rest of my quote where I say that there is no possible way to find a perfect order for the exact reasons that you just posted...

Anyway, obviously there are exceptions. The teams you brought up would be (IMO) fairly judged under my system because neither have been great for three solid year and both would be bumped down for their playoff runs.

Obviously we are never going to see what would have happened this season, but to say that Columbus, Pittsburgh, Florida, Atlanta, and the Rangers had an equal chance of having a good season as Detroit, Ottawa, Philadelphia, Colorado, and New Jersey is crazy.

Maybe Detroit would have had a terrible year and Florida would have shocked everybody. That's why everyone deserves a shot. It shouldn't be equal though, because the chances of having a good season (even with a new economic system) would not have been equal for all teams.

 

[John Flyers Fan]

Nice to see that it will be a snake style draft.

http://tsn.ca/nhl/news_story.asp?ID=120872&hubName=nhl

The NHL hasn't decided yet when to conduct the lottery -- it could happen before the lockout is over; it could be put off until a new CBA is in place -- but two things we do know. Whichever team gets the first pick overall won't pick again until No. 60, and the team that gets the 30th pick will pick again at 31.

 

[EroCaps]

Nice to see that it will be a snake style draft.

http://tsn.ca/nhl/news_story.asp?ID=120872&hubName=nhl

The NHL hasn't decided yet when to conduct the lottery -- it could happen before the lockout is over; it could be put off until a new CBA is in place -- but two things we do know. Whichever team gets the first pick overall won't pick again until No. 60, and the team that gets the 30th pick will pick again at 31.

Can't hurt.

 

[wazee]

Carolina?

Anaheim?

Went to the finals one season and failed to make it the next. Sounds like tanking to me.

Sounds to me like their playoff success was a just fluke.

 

[Hockeyfan02]

This is one big headache.

 

[mikeg]

here's a thought...

why not just get rid of the draft altogether, *if*, there is a salary cap.

as well he might decide to play someplace he wants to play, like the team he dreamt of playing for as kid.. some team, that is glorious, and has a rich history and 24 stanley cups... as opposed to a poophole like, oh i don't know, toronto.



mike

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I'm glad they are going with a weighted lottery. I am glad they will give everybody a shot at Crosby. I'm glad it will be based on 3-4 years. And I even like the idea of the snake. What I wonder about is how long with they snake? Will the entire 2005 draft include a snake?

I suppose I could live with that.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

One thing not stated in the article, if the article is to be believed, is the weighting. How strongly the weighting is favoring the lower tier teams will control how I, and how anyone feels about this. I am guessing pretty strongly toward the top, just as it is in a normal lottery.

For those who forgot, under the normal system, the last place team had a 25% chance, on down to lower and lower odds until team 14 (last one out of the playoffs) however you could not move up more than five slots, the team moving up bumped everyone below them down one slot. That gave the worst team almost a 50% chance (25% + the aggregate 24.8% chances of teams 7-14 who could not move to number 1). Note how weighted toward the top this is, a 75% chance for half of the non-playoff teams, less than a 25% chance for the last half plus one of non-playoff teams.

I am guessing that something close to this would play out, except that the worst team, CBJ it seems, would have a slightly lower chance to give teams 15-30 a token chance. So CBJ would have, say, a 15% chance . . . Team number 30 something like a half a percent chance, and teams near the top would be close to 10% - 15%, bottom ten really would have only a token chance, maybe 5% between them all. I would guess in fact the first ten slots would end up with at least 65% of the chances if not 70%. One more point, it likely will make little difference whether you are the number 1 team weighted, number 2, or even number 5 . . . unlike most drafts where the drop of chance between numbers 1 and 2 is over half (49.8% to 24%) all teams are eligible to move up so the drop I would guess would be fairly negligible. If you are in the top 7 or 8 expect your chances to differ not that much from being number 1. All admittedly eductated guesswork on my part, but makes sense to me. If the article is correct, then expect something close to the above.

 

[tom_servo]

we're rewarding teams for stupidity now?

No, we're assisting under-performing teams, just like we've always been.

 

[reckoning]

But in truth, we both KNOW 100% that Toronto would have not finished in the bottom 5 if there was a year.

No, you don`t know that. Before last season, nobody picked Washington to finish near the bottom- they were expected to make the playoffs just like the previous year. Before 2002-03, everybody thought San Jose would be a top contender- instead they finished 25th. There`s no guarantee what would`ve happened.

 

[RangerBoy]

Of the issues discussed at the meetings, the one that could impact the Panthers most is a preliminary plan outlined by Commissioner Gary Bettman for a comprehensive lottery, which would substitute for the 2005 NHL Draft.

"What was indicated to us was a weighted lottery, where every team involved would be rated on a sliding scale," Keenan said.

Keenan said that, along with the 2003-04 season, previous years also would be considered in creating the scale.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/panthers/content/sports/epaper/2005/04/09/a7b_nhl_0409.html

 

[Scoogs]

This is one big headache.

 

[FlyersFan10*]

This whole draft idea is a farce. Yeah, let's weight the draft so that teams who continually suck and make no effort on improving continue to get the top pick. I'm tired of hearing excuses from Florida, Atlanta, Columbus, Pittsburgh, etc....about how there is little talent there, but yet they have a deep collection of prospects. Why should other teams who have built their teams properly not be given a shot to draft Crosby or Brule or Johnson? It's a joke. I'm tired of all these bottom feeders who continue to get the benefit of the draft. The draft is supposed to help teams get better. Instead, the above teams have used the draft as an excuse to keep their teams as bottom feeders. I hope that there is contraction and those teams are kicked to the curb.

 

[Charge_Seven]

here's a thought...

why not just get rid of the draft altogether, *if*, there is a salary cap.

as well he might decide to play someplace he wants to play, like the team he dreamt of playing for as kid.. some team, that is glorious, and has a rich history and 24 stanley cups... as opposed to a poophole like, oh i don't know, toronto.



mike

While I'm offended by the poophole comment, I have to agree, let the kids choose where they want to play, or what suits them best, if you can't come up with an agreement on what's fair here. It'd suck to see Crosby be a Hab, but I'd probably enjoy that more than seeing him a Panther, it's not like there's no kids in the first round that would be willing to play for the Leafs. Realistically I don't see this positioning battle as a battle for Crosby right now, sure, it'd be huge to win it, but I doubt it'll happen. I see it as a chance to be completely fair, and that's what I want. If Montreal gets the top pick, and the Leafs the 30th in a draft lottery, then so be it, however I want it to be done fairly and equally, based on the 2004-2005 season, which in my books had absolutely everyone finish last.

 

[FlyersFan10*]

While I'm offended by the poophole comment, I have to agree, let the kids choose where they want to play, or what suits them best, if you can't come up with an agreement on what's fair here. It'd suck to see Crosby be a Hab, but I'd probably enjoy that more than seeing him a Panther, it's not like there's no kids in the first round that would be willing to play for the Leafs. Realistically I don't see this positioning battle as a battle for Crosby right now, sure, it'd be huge to win it, but I doubt it'll happen. I see it as a chance to be completely fair, and that's what I want. If Montreal gets the top pick, and the Leafs the 30th in a draft lottery, then so be it, however I want it to be done fairly and equally, based on the 2004-2005 season, which in my books had absolutely everyone finish last.

Mike must be a Montreal fan. And to counter what Mike said, who would want to play in Quebec where you don't know whether or not they plan on separating from Canada. And if they do, well, good riddance to them all. Don't expect any handouts from anyone.

 

[txpd]

Carolina?

Anaheim?

Went to the finals one season and failed to make it the next. Sounds like tanking to me.

Sometimes its so obvious when someone knows little or nothing about what they are talking about. I am probably guilty myself from time to time.

Carolina was destroyed by injuries the year after they went to the finals. they lead the league in man games lost. They were not exactly a dominant team as it was.

Anaheim was a hot goalie story in the playoffs, but you may have missed that they lost Paul Kariya, by far their best player, to Colorado(what a shock..ufa's never go to a team like that..eh?) from free agency that off season.

Neither team tanked.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

This whole draft idea is a farce. Yeah, let's weight the draft so that teams who continually suck and make no effort on improving continue to get the top pick. I'm tired of hearing excuses from Florida, Atlanta, Columbus, Pittsburgh, etc....about how there is little talent there, but yet they have a deep collection of prospects. Why should other teams who have built their teams properly not be given a shot to draft Crosby or Brule or Johnson? It's a joke. I'm tired of all these bottom feeders who continue to get the benefit of the draft. The draft is supposed to help teams get better. Instead, the above teams have used the draft as an excuse to keep their teams as bottom feeders. I hope that there is contraction and those teams are kicked to the curb.

This just may be the most idiotic post ever posted on the HF boards . . . so many things to address here that I will not even make the attempt . . . Wow . . . congratulations.

 

[txpd]

This whole draft idea is a farce. Yeah, let's weight the draft so that teams who continually suck and make no effort on improving continue to get the top pick. Why should other teams who have built their teams properly not be given a shot to draft Crosby or Brule or Johnson? It's a joke. I'm tired of all these bottom feeders who continue to get the benefit of the draft. The draft is supposed to help teams get better. Instead, the above teams have used the draft as an excuse to keep their teams as bottom feeders. I hope that there is contraction and those teams are kicked to the curb.

ah...yes, the "if you can't afford to a $50m payroll you should get out of the league" attitude.

Are you saying that Calgary and Tampa Bay didn't deserve those top draft picks for missing the playoffs 7 straight years? It takes time to build thru the draft and some teams can't afford to take a shot at every overpriced free agent or salary dump trade on the market. Most teams cant afford $5m or $6m for an 8 goal center like Keith Primeau or an overpriced player like Tony Amonte. Most teams can't afford $4m for a back up goalie like Sean Burke.

Additionally, You seem to forget how even lottery picks often are not even in the league til two years after they are drafted. You expect a bad team to draft a top prospect then improve immediately while that guy is still in junior hockey? LOL

its must my perspective, but you sound like a spoiled fan of a big market team and you just want what you want.

 

[X0ssbar]

This whole draft idea is a farce. Yeah, let's weight the draft so that teams who continually suck and make no effort on improving continue to get the top pick. I'm tired of hearing excuses from Florida, Atlanta, Columbus, Pittsburgh, etc....about how there is little talent there, but yet they have a deep collection of prospects. Why should other teams who have built their teams properly not be given a shot to draft Crosby or Brule or Johnson? It's a joke. I'm tired of all these bottom feeders who continue to get the benefit of the draft. The draft is supposed to help teams get better. Instead, the above teams have used the draft as an excuse to keep their teams as bottom feeders. I hope that there is contraction and those teams are kicked to the curb.

This post is a farce.

 

[BLONG7]

This whole draft idea is a farce. Yeah, let's weight the draft so that teams who continually suck and make no effort on improving continue to get the top pick. I'm tired of hearing excuses from Florida, Atlanta, Columbus, Pittsburgh, etc....about how there is little talent there, but yet they have a deep collection of prospects. Why should other teams who have built their teams properly not be given a shot to draft Crosby or Brule or Johnson? It's a joke. I'm tired of all these bottom feeders who continue to get the benefit of the draft. The draft is supposed to help teams get better. Instead, the above teams have used the draft as an excuse to keep their teams as bottom feeders. I hope that there is contraction and those teams are kicked to the curb.

AHHH...spoken like a true big market team fan...

 

[Lanny MacDonald*]

This whole draft idea is a farce. Yeah, let's weight the draft so that teams who continually suck and make no effort on improving continue to get the top pick. I'm tired of hearing excuses from Florida, Atlanta, Columbus, Pittsburgh, etc....about how there is little talent there, but yet they have a deep collection of prospects. Why should other teams who have built their teams properly not be given a shot to draft Crosby or Brule or Johnson? It's a joke. I'm tired of all these bottom feeders who continue to get the benefit of the draft. The draft is supposed to help teams get better. Instead, the above teams have used the draft as an excuse to keep their teams as bottom feeders. I hope that there is contraction and those teams are kicked to the curb.

Dog pile!

 

[Jester]

No, we're assisting under-performing teams, just like we've always been.

i can't debate with that avatar...

i understand that... i was just responding to ranger complaining.

 

[FlyersFan10*]

AHHH...spoken like a true big market team fan...

Boy are you ever mistaken. It's not about $50 million dollar payrolls. It's about teams who have an awesome talent base but do nothing to get better. If you're trying to tell me that Scotty Bowman couldn't make a playoff contender out of someone like Florida, then it's an insult to the rest of us.

The issue at hand is that all of the teams I've mentioned have an awesome talent base. Florida has the franchise goalie in Luongo, franchise defenseman in Bouwmeester, and the franchise forward in Oli Jokinen. And yet, they CHOOSE to not surround those players with better talent.

We then go to Atlanta and we see that the Thrashers have an all world goalie in Kari Lehtonen, a future franchise defenseman in Braydon Colburn, and two stud forwards in Kovalchuk and Heatley. I'll give Atlanta the benefit of the doubt though in that they are at least trying to build around Kovalchuk and Heatley by bringing in MacEachern, Kozlov, and Savard. As well, the addition of Scott Mellanby doesn't hurt and having Garnet Exelby patrol the blueline for a full season will help.

As for Columbus, Doug MacLean is a GM that has completely overspent on Andrew Cassels, Luke Richardson, Todd Marchant, and Scott Lachance. He has Rick Nash, Nik Zherdev, Rostislav Klesla and Marc Denis to build around. MacLean dropped the ball on that. He deals off Daryl Sydor to Tampa Bay for next to nothing and then complains they aren't making any money. Gee, proper management there.

As for Pittsburgh, they were a team that has known for a long time that they would need a new arena. Even while Lemieux was retired, they knew they needed the arena. They did nothing. Instead, they blamed escalating salaries and let everyone of the good players go for next to nothing. Marginal prospects at best for Jagr and Rico Fata and some scrubs for Kovalev.

So, if you're trying to tell me that any of these teams deserve a shot a drafting Crosby because their GMs are inept at building adequate teams, then no, they don't. Hey, I have no problem with a Tampa Bay or a Montreal or a Calgary or an Edmonton drafting Sydney simply because they've at least built teams to compete (and in Tampa's case, built a Stanley Cup winner). And let's not forget that in Tampa Bay, the biggest cause of their turn around was aggressive dealing by Jay Feester and the coaching of John Tortorella. Calgary's turn around can be clearly pointed at the hiring of Sutter for both positions and his knowledge of the game.

So, people can point at me and say that my post is crap, and to be honest, I could care less. However, at least I've provided facts to back up my argument. So, for some of the personal attacks that I have received, I think that it's rather childish that some of you act in that manner. And where's the moderators now when you need them. I've been blasted in the past for that type of behaviour and now when it happens to me, the mods view it as acceptable. Talk about hypocrites.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

I think that someone is about to have his $80 million toy taken from him and does not like it one bit . . .

 

[jacketracket*]

So, people can point at me and say that my post is crap, and to be honest, I could care less.

Good thing ... because your post is crap.