Fan 590's Howard Berger: Contentious debate about draft

[Kritter471]

The problem with saying "well, they've been good and probably won't be next year" or "these bad teams need the most help" is that no one knows who will be coming back.

What would the Wings be without Yzerman, Shanahan, CuJo and Lidstrom (just picking vets here)? What would the Stars look like without Modano, Zubov, Morrow and Arnott (all unsigned past 04-05)? With each team having 8-10 players at most signed for the theoretical 05-06 season, it's impossible to tell "who needs the most help." And that's why a weighted lottery, while a better option than just saying let's re-use the 03-04 standings, is still not a good option.

 

[MacDaddy TLC*]

The Leafs should just awarded Crosby for going along with this lockout without making a whisper. They were the ones hurt the most by this lockout. They lost a year of service from a ****load of players; will only have 8 players under contract next season; they are one of the few that makes a profit (17 million more than the next best team). They should be rewarded for standing by the loser teams of the league.

 

[Monty]

It's funny how there have been (1) numerous threads with a collective zillion posts about how to do the 2005 Draft, (2) numerous comments that "Everyone should have an equal chance at Crosby," and (3) numerous comments about the way to resolve who gets Crosby is to reconfigure the determination of the entire draft order rounds one through ten, and yet I haven't seen one comment containing any of the following statements:

Everyone should have an equal chance to get Brule.

Everyone should have an equal chance to get Johnson.

Everyone should have an equal chance to get [insert name of any player predicted to be selected around 10th or so in the first round].

To state the obvious, 99 percent of the cause for this all-out argument war over how to do the 2005 draft is because Crosby is the plum at the top. And if that is everyone's far and away primary concern, then the first step to resolving the argument and finding a solution is to realize that everyone's true focus is on that No. 1 pick, and therefore, the only thing that needs to be tinkered with is how to determine who gets the No. 1 pick.

In my local area there is currently a television commercial where a plumber determines that the kitchen sink faucet needs to be fixed, and so he announces to the owner of the house that we're going to have to tear down the whole house to fix the faucet. And that's what they do.

If everyone is so fixated on what is a fair way to determine which team gets Crosby, why is it necessary to demolish the whole current draft system and order to figure out who picks first. I have no contribution on determining which team should pick first - should every time get a chance, get an equal chance, get a weighted chance, get a chance based on the last season played, the last two, three, four seasons played, get a chance based on a declining weighting of the last X seasons played - I don't know.

All I suggest is that if everyone is so preoccupied with Crosby, the road to a resolution of the issue could be shorter and straighter if the solution is limited to how to determine who gets the No. 1 pick, and leave the rest of the draft based on the last season played.

 

[MLH]

The Leafs should just awarded Crosby for going along with this lockout without making a whisper. They were the ones hurt the most by this lockout. They lost a year of service from a ****load of players; will only have 8 players under contract next season; they are one of the few that makes a profit (17 million more than the next best team). They should be rewarded for standing by the loser teams of the league.

Plus, he would probably be so honored to play in the hockey mecca that is Toronto that he would play for the league minimum.

 

[Boltsfan2029]

The answer is obvious even to those who say otherwise . . . the only reason a team like Detroit, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Philly, etc. should have a shot at number one is continued greed of their fans, no basis in logic or reality.

LOL! Never thought I'd see the day that the Bolts would be lumped in with teams like these... I'll only point out that we were $10M under league average payroll when we won the Cup. Greed is something the fans are completely unfamiliar with down here, we've just been begging to have an average payroll for years, being up there with the big spenders has never even crossed our minds.

As an aside, I feel really sorry for the kid. This thread makes it sound like he's expected to instantly be the best player on the planet, pressure like that can make an 18-year old implode.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

LOL! Never thought I'd see the day that the Bolts would be lumped in with teams like these... I'll only point out that we were $10M under league average payroll when we won the Cup. Greed is something the fans are completely unfamiliar with down here, we've just been begging to have an average payroll for years, being up there with the big spenders has never even crossed our minds.

As an aside, I feel really sorry for the kid. This thread makes it sound like he's expected to instantly be the best player on the planet, pressure like that can make an 18-year old implode.

Hey, nothing personal, just picked the player I would most love having . . . I would take LeCalvier over Crosby anyday . . . a prospect, no matter how much of a sure thing, is not more of a sure thing than the real deal.

 

[ryz]

The Leafs should just awarded Crosby for going along with this lockout without making a whisper. They were the ones hurt the most by this lockout. They lost a year of service from a ****load of players; will only have 8 players under contract next season; they are one of the few that makes a profit (17 million more than the next best team). They should be rewarded for standing by the loser teams of the league.

LOL. Gotta love Leaf fans. Maybe we should just give you the Cup next year too because you havn't had a sniff of it in almost 40 years? Naw, I'd love to see you wait another 40.

 

[John Flyers Fan]

John, I disagree, if the teams that have some of the best talent in the league and are saying that the league is going to start with a whole new playing field then a full dispersal draft of all the players in the NHL is in order.

Why should Tampa Bay have Lecavalier, Richards, Kubina etc etc and get Crosby ahead of Malone, Fata, Tarnstrom?

Even if the advantages are not drastic, there has to be some.

By winning the Stanley Cup the Lightning picked up Andy Rogers instead of Ovechkin/Malkin etc.

Who know what would have happened last year? Maybe instead of setting an NHL record by losing 60 man games to injury, they lose 450, with Richards, LeCavalier and Khabibulin all missing extended time.

Where do you put the Bruins ... maybe they go out and sign Kariya, Selanne and Zhitnik to fill out there roster and again win the NE, but perhaps they fill it with Hilbert, Boyes and Jurcina and don't sniff a playoff birth.

 

[Mess]

Plus, he would probably be so honored to play in the hockey mecca that is Toronto that he would play for the league minimum.

Well Bettman can test his Hard Cap Parity theory out ..

Make all the kids UFA let them chose the team of their choice .. If all teams have to sign them via the Entry level contract and bonus system it would be fair for all ..

Lets see how many if GIVEN FREE WILL would chose to play in Small market non-traditional markets ?? Or if restricting their human rights and freedom of choice is the only way you could get them to play for some cities ..

It would be an interesting experiment ..

 

[EroCaps]

Washington is a fat cat team that tried to buy a winner for years, but failed because their management was STUPID. In fact, Washington was directly responsible for undermining Pittsburgh's operation when they got Jagr and signed Robert Lang!

Ted Leonsis' decision to dump everyone was a hockey related decision. I have a hard time believing that a couple of million dollars in losses could undermine the financial wellbeing of a multi-billionaire.

What a joke.

The Caps a fat cat team? Based on two FAs in the last 20 years???

I won't be surprised to see the Leafs, among others engaged in petty whining and overbearing bellyaching regarding the draft.

It's a shame and should a playoff team land Crosby will only alienate fans further.

 

[PecaFan]

My solution (in rough form, no calculations done):

o Take the various team records from the past three years.
o Weight them, with more weight on the past year, less on 2 years ago, etc. Maybe 60%/30%/10%, that sort of thing.
o Multiply it all out, come out with the average standing for each team.

Deduct points:

o If the team has won the Cup recently (say past 5 or 6 years).
(Recent Cup winners should not be getting possible "best player in a generation" kind of guys)

o For each playoff series win during the last 3 years, deduct something.
(Recent playoff success indicates less need for the #1 pick).

Add it all up, figure out the relative odds, dish out the ping pong balls. First ping pong ball combo out determines the #1 overall pick, which all 30 teams had access to. Random, but weighted.

Key point: The worst team left gets the balls remaining from the team that just got the pick. IE, if the first pick goes to the #5 team, then the #1 team gets all their leftover picks. This increases their chances, and helps make sure that they'll come up sooner rather than keep dropping. If the second pick goes to the #8 team, then now the #1 team has their own, plus #5 and #8's balls. If #8 comes up again, then finally #1 gets the third pick. All their balls would transfer to the #2 team, etc.

The most important part: The draw must be held in public.

None of this NBA type crap where they come out with envelopes, and you have to take their word for it how the draw went. There's a reason why you see the Lotto 6/49 machine get loaded, and the balls come out.

 

[jamiebez]

No can do. That leaves Crosby open to just decide to sign whereever he wants when he turns 18. And if the league tries to block him, they'll get sued on age discrimination so fast it'll make Fedorov look like Ulanov. You cannot prevent an adult in the US from making a living the best way he knows how, and 18 is an adult.

I don't think the age of majority has anything to do with who is allowed to play in the NHL and who isn't. That's in the CBA. See item 8.4 on this page:
http://www.andrewsstarspage.com/CBA/cba8.htm

The NHL is within their rights to restrict whoever can sign with them, as long as its not discriminatory, right? Why won't he sue them now (via his parents) to play as a 17-year old? That's still "age discrimination".

Besides, he can hardly claim he's being prevented from making a living, since he could play in Europe or even live off his endorsements.

PS: That "... make Fedorov look like Ulanov" quote. Genius, sir... Genius

 

[reckoning]

It boggles the mind to think that somebody could call a system where every team gets a fair and equal shot unfair. Probably wasting my breath here beceause a dozen people have already said it, but for the last time:

Nobody knows what the standings would`ve been last year

The arguement we keep hearing is " nobody believes Pittsburgh or Washington would`ve finished higher than Detroit or Colorado". By that same logic, could you let me know how many people predicted Tampa would win the Cup at the start of `03-`04. Nobody was picking Washington to finish as low as they did- they made the playoffs the year before and were expected to do it again. Some predictions from the THN yearbook previewing `03-`04:

East:

Rangers: Predicted 7th-- Actual 13th
Washington: Predicted 8th-- Actual 14th
Montreal: Predicted 13th-- Actual 7th

West:

Anaheim: Predicted 5th-- Actual 12th
Calgary: Predicted 12th-- Actual 6th
San Jose: Predicted 14th-- Actual 2nd

That`s the way it is every year, there s always two or three teams that do far better than expected and there`s always two or three teams that do far worse than expected.

And please don`t give me that lame argument that " the American media will laugh at the league if Detroit or Toronto get the pick" because there`s no logic or validity to it. If Carolina got the pick and only five people showed up at the announcement of Crosby`s signing, then that would be a joke. However I still believe Carolina is entitled to their 1-in-30 shot like everyone else.

 

[HSHS]

there are two points to be made.

1. the caps have missed the playoffs two of the last three seasons and went to rebuild after being in last place when they started trading off contracts. so they sucked fair and square. its not so much about getting crosby as it is about them getting a top 5 pick that they deserve. if you set up this draft so that cup contenders can get a top pick, that means a lottery team can end up with a bottom 5 pick. that would be wrong. its not about crosby.

2. its about toronto and detroit and colorado NOT getting a shot at crosby. they DON'T deserve it. They have bought the top players in the game over the last ten years and have been contenders as a result. they do not deserve a top 5 draft choice.

exactly... and its not just about them.

Its about TB being in the bottom 10. Carolina being in the bottom 10. Atl being in the middle 10. NYR being in the bottom 10... etc. etc. etc. You can argue one way or the other, but you can rather accurately agree on where team rank by thirds.

 

[Stephen]

What a joke.

The Caps a fat cat team? Based on two FAs in the last 20 years???

I won't be surprised to see the Leafs, among others engaged in petty whining and overbearing bellyaching regarding the draft.

It's a shame and should a playoff team land Crosby will only alienate fans further.

The Caps are a fat cat franchise. You're not exactly small market when your owner is Ted Leonsis. You're not small market when your team has paid out over $50 in salary in each of the past three seasons and your team is not small market when you shell out $77 million on one player. For all of the Leafs' spending the past few years, I'm not sure that their free agent acquisitions even came close to $77 million. So please spare me the nonsense about Washington being a poor small market team who deserves another #1 pick more than a playoff team.

 

[Poochie_D]

My solution (in rough form, no calculations done):

o Take the various team records from the past three years.
o Weight them, with more weight on the past year, less on 2 years ago, etc. Maybe 60%/30%/10%, that sort of thing.
o Multiply it all out, come out with the average standing for each team.

Deduct points:

o If the team has won the Cup recently (say past 5 or 6 years).
(Recent Cup winners should not be getting possible "best player in a generation" kind of guys)

o For each playoff series win during the last 3 years, deduct something.
(Recent playoff success indicates less need for the #1 pick).

Add it all up, figure out the relative odds, dish out the ping pong balls. First ping pong ball combo out determines the #1 overall pick, which all 30 teams had access to. Random, but weighted.

Key point: The worst team left gets the balls remaining from the team that just got the pick. IE, if the first pick goes to the #5 team, then the #1 team gets all their leftover picks. This increases their chances, and helps make sure that they'll come up sooner rather than keep dropping. If the second pick goes to the #8 team, then now the #1 team has their own, plus #5 and #8's balls. If #8 comes up again, then finally #1 gets the third pick. All their balls would transfer to the #2 team, etc.

The most important part: The draw must be held in public.

None of this NBA type crap where they come out with envelopes, and you have to take their word for it how the draw went. There's a reason why you see the Lotto 6/49 machine get loaded, and the balls come out.

thats a great idea. well thought out... and yes, they should hold the drawing publicly... i dont trust teams like NYR and toronto.. would probably throw money at the nhl and rig it...

 

[HSHS]

Because they've never taken a full season off. Nobody is saying the draft should be random every year.

Then the level playing field argument runs hollow. If every team has the same chance every year, then what you did last the previous year doesn't matter. Drafts never take into account how many UFA will be lost that year.

Case in point... look at who Pitt lost this yeat with Plex, K. Bell, two OL starters... but they still get 30. Just cause the "system" allowed and "equal playing field", the Steelers don't get the chance to draft Ronnie Brown.

 

[HSHS]

Someone asked, so I ran an excel spreadsheet.

Should the draft be a weighted lottery based on record over the past 4 years (since MIN and CBJ came into the league), this is the ranking they would use. Notice the whre the Caps fit into all of this....

Thanks for doing that... can anyone here say that TB deserves ANY higher pick over Wash. Caps at #9, I can deal. There was no season so if they lose out, fine. But you start moving towards 16 and put TB before them... doesn't that just smell to all of you?

 

[HSHS]

The Leafs should just awarded Crosby for going along with this lockout without making a whisper. They were the ones hurt the most by this lockout. They lost a year of service from a ****load of players; will only have 8 players under contract next season; they are one of the few that makes a profit (17 million more than the next best team). They should be rewarded for standing by the loser teams of the league.

How much $$$$ they make in the league by themselves????

 

[Boltsfan2029]

Hey, nothing personal, just picked the player I would most love having . . . I would take LeCalvier over Crosby anyday . . . a prospect, no matter how much of a sure thing, is not more of a sure thing than the real deal.

I didn't take it personally or even negatively, I just thought it was, well, hilarious to be grouped with big spenders like Detroit, Toronto, Philly and Colorado when, in truth, we've been griping for a decade about how cheap our ownership has been!

I agree with you -- I'm more than happy with Lecavalier. And having seen how the pressure of being the anticipated Michael Jordan of hockey figured into the inconsistencies in his development, I shudder at the thought of what being expected to be the next Gretzky is going to do to Crosby.

So, here I'll propose something entirely different. As was pointed out earlier, the only reason the good folks here are so up in arms over this draft order silliness is Crosby. If he wasn't eligible this year, no one would care. But, since he's the prize and in order for him to reach god-like status, it's very important not that he go to the worst team or the best team or the most deserving team or the least deserving team or the one that's missed more playoffs than any others. It's important that he go to the team that can best guide this young man to being the best player he can be. Therefore, I propose that Crosby be awarded to the team with the coach best suited to accomplish that. We've seen down here how coaches who let an 18-year old phenom do whatever he wants have an negative impact on the player's overall development, this situation needs to be avoided with Crosby.

How's that for a different approach?

 

[Morbo]

LOL. Gotta love Leaf fans. Maybe we should just give you the Cup next year too because you havn't had a sniff of it in almost 40 years? Naw, I'd love to see you wait another 40.

This is why I cheered for the Lightning in the final.

 

[MacDaddy TLC*]

How much $$$$ they make in the league by themselves????

The same as all the others would make without the Toronto Maple Leafs. The league should be bending over backwards to make the Leafs happy after screwing them out of $100 million because Peter Karmanos is an idiot, because the St louis Blues can't manage a team, because the Detroit Red Wings can't even make money, and because Gary Bettman and some greedy owners couldn't help themselves when expansion dollars were flashed in front of their eyes (looking at you Bruce Mcnall and the 50 million cheque from the ducks) !

 

[HSHS]

It's funny how there have been (1) numerous threads with a collective zillion posts about how to do the 2005 Draft, (2) numerous comments that "Everyone should have an equal chance at Crosby," and (3) numerous comments about the way to resolve who gets Crosby is to reconfigure the determination of the entire draft order rounds one through ten, and yet I haven't seen one comment containing any of the following statements:

Everyone should have an equal chance to get Brule.

Everyone should have an equal chance to get Johnson.

Everyone should have an equal chance to get [insert name of any player predicted to be selected around 10th or so in the first round].

To state the obvious, 99 percent of the cause for this all-out argument war over how to do the 2005 draft is because Crosby is the plum at the top. And if that is everyone's far and away primary concern, then the first step to resolving the argument and finding a solution is to realize that everyone's true focus is on that No. 1 pick, and therefore, the only thing that needs to be tinkered with is how to determine who gets the No. 1 pick.

In my local area there is currently a television commercial where a plumber determines that the kitchen sink faucet needs to be fixed, and so he announces to the owner of the house that we're going to have to tear down the whole house to fix the faucet. And that's what they do.

If everyone is so fixated on what is a fair way to determine which team gets Crosby, why is it necessary to demolish the whole current draft system and order to figure out who picks first. I have no contribution on determining which team should pick first - should every time get a chance, get an equal chance, get a weighted chance, get a chance based on the last season played, the last two, three, four seasons played, get a chance based on a declining weighting of the last X seasons played - I don't know.

All I suggest is that if everyone is so preoccupied with Crosby, the road to a resolution of the issue could be shorter and straighter if the solution is limited to how to determine who gets the No. 1 pick, and leave the rest of the draft based on the last season played.

I can equivically guarantee that the majority of Caps fans care about picks 2-5 more than they do #1. Would we be eccstatic if they lucked out again... of course. He might bring MANY prospects and picks back in a trade. But what many of the teams who are near the bottom don't want is to be picking #23. There is a big difference between picks in the top ten verses last 10 in the 1st round.

 

[Boltsfan2029]

By winning the Stanley Cup the Lightning picked up Andy Rogers instead of Ovechkin/Malkin etc.

Who know what would have happened last year? Maybe instead of setting an NHL record by losing 60 man games to injury, they lose 450, with Richards, LeCavalier and Khabibulin all missing extended time.

Excellent point. Richards is currently recovering from abdominal surgery and Lecavalier is about to undergo (or may have already in the last week or so) arthroscopic knee surgery for injuries sustained during the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Bolts would have been without Richards for basically the entire season. Lecavalier could have played but not at full speed and who knows if he could have finished the season.

 

[hockeytown9321]

Then the level playing field argument runs hollow. If every team has the same chance every year, then what you did last the previous year doesn't matter. Drafts never take into account how many UFA will be lost that year.

Case in point... look at who Pitt lost this yeat with Plex, K. Bell, two OL starters... but they still get 30. Just cause the "system" allowed and "equal playing field", the Steelers don't get the chance to draft Ronnie Brown.

You'll get no argument from me that the cap levels the playing field.