Speculation: Facing cap issues after this year; who stays -- Buff or Wheeler?

[BigZ65]

Trading Wheeler in the off-season, however, should get us a king's ransom which would be interesting to see what that is.

Wouldn't be that great of a haul when he's a year away from UFA. Would be a step back for sure.

 

[behemolari]

Don't you pay a premium for centers ?

highest paid player in the league is a winger..

People on here know a lot more than me, but, I thought they got drafted higher and earned more as they were expected to be better two players. Interesting that, that is not the case.

they were drafted by teams desperately need of franchise center, like shittiest teams usually are. "better" depends what you already have.

players who have proved their value are paid most, not the most hyped ones

 

[Daximus]

highest paid player in the league is a winger..

If you go by pure salary then it's a tie between Kane and Toews for this year. So 1 winger AND 1 center.

 

[Aavco Cup]

highest paid player in the league is a winger..



they were drafted by teams desperately need of franchise center, like ****tiest teams usually are.

While not untrue entirely, your statement is a bit ingenuous.

 

[Channelcat]

How does a garbage player like Koivu make 9.18 M?

 

[Psych0dad]

Don't you pay a premium for centers ?

For what though? Faceoffs?

I'd think that main price driver in any players case is their ability to affect the outcome of the game positively.

 

[KingBogo]

The premise of the thread is kind of bizarre. Why so drastic? There are enough guys coming up to RFA and UFA that you could actually fairly easily keep the core of this team together with there being some correction of spots that are overpaid converting to ELC's/under 2 million per players and a few ELC slots right now converting to guys making bigger money. I don't see the Jets as a team that is in difficulty, just a team that needs to continue to develop ELC players into NHL players like every other team in the cap era.

Myers, Enstrom, Mason is $15.350 million, plus nearly $15 in open cap for next year projected. That's $30 million to give raises and slot in some value signings/ELC's.

IMO the impending cap crunch is real and we will start feeling it as early as next season. For next season we have 14 players under contract at a combined cap hit of $54.4 M. Players not signed that the organization likely wants to hold onto: Trouba, Morrissey, Lowry, Helly, Poolman & Armia. Then we need to sign 3 more players to fill out the roster. Again IMO the Jets need to account for performance bonuses for their top ELC guys against the cap especially in light of most of them being met last season. Laine himself accounts for $2.65 M in performance bonuses. And then there is the final the residue of Stu's buyout. My estimates are:

Lowry = $3M
Armia= $2M
Trouba = $6M
Poolman = $1.5M
Morrissey = $5M
Helly = $4M

14 contacts = $54.4M
6 signings = $21.5M
3 other players = $2.5M (very conservative)
Performance bonus allowance = $3.7125
Remaining hit on Stu's buyout = $583,333

Total = $82.695833

If people disagree great but there is more to it than saying I think we will be okay.

 

[JetsFan815]

To answer the premise of this thread- it's too early to say. We don't need to make the decision until next summer and what the decision is will depend on a number of variables- how the Trouba situation place out, the estimated cap, how much or how little Wheeler/Buff decline and the development of other players in the system. It's very hard to make a decision on this until there is a bit more clarity on those variables, esp the Trouba situation.

there is absolutely nothing which puts him over Laine

#1	Toronto Maple Leafs	Auston Matthews (C)	2	113	57	43	100	16
#2	Winnipeg Jets	Patrik Laine (LW)	2	114	54	44	98	46

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Gotta look beyond points, Matthews plays C and regardless is a much better player overall and this is no offense to Laine. Matthews has fantastic Corsi stats and can drive a line on his own. Laine cannot do that at this point and needs to rely on his linemates. Unless that changes in the next 1.5 years his value is probably around 8 million-ish. He should get one of the best 2nd contract of any young NHL player in recent years, just not McDavid/Matthews money.

Think our future cap issues are a bit overstated. Highly doubt Wheeler commands much more then Schief if at all.

The real question marks are probably gonna be Helly and Connor.

Well if Wheeler accepts less than Scheifele money he will be doing so out of the kindness of his heart as I am pretty certain that he can command more in the free market if his level of play keeps up.

I have said before that the Joe Thornton contracts in his mid 30s
(high AAV 3 year term) should be a great model for Wheeler's contracts and are both fair to the team and the player. Whether the Jets can make that work with their cap situation is unknown.

 

[Psych0dad]

Trading Wheeler in the off-season, however, should get us a king's ransom which would be interesting to see what that is.

That could also work well. He will have a lot of trade value. What do we trade for becomes the question. Would be easier to know if they played Roslo and found out where we are with him. Then the picture would get clearer on what to look for.

 

[JetsFan815]

IMO the impending cap crunch is real and we will start feeling it as early as next season. For next season we have 14 players under contract at a combined cap hit of $54.4 M. Players not signed that the organization likely wants to hold onto: Trouba, Morrissey, Lowry, Helly, Poolman & Armia. Then we need to sign 3 more players to fill out the roster. Again IMO the Jets need to account for performance bonuses for their top ELC guys against the cap especially in light of most of them being met last season. Laine himself accounts for $2.65 M in performance bonuses. And then there is the final the residue of Stu's buyout. My estimates are:

Lowry = $3M
Armia= $2M
Trouba = $6M
Poolman = $1.5M
Morrissey = $5M
Helly = $4M

14 contacts = $54.4M
6 signings = $21.5M
3 other players = $2.5M (very conservative)
Performance bonus allowance = $3.7125
Remaining hit on Stu's buyout = $583,333

Total = $82.695833

If people disagree great but there is more to it than saying I think we will be okay.

Gotta move on from Myers and Mason this summer. Can't have like 9.5 million tied up on your 5/6 d-man and your backup goalie. Moving those 2 contracts gives the Jets a ton of breathing room capwise. Moreover both of these contracts should be very movable if these guys keep up their level of play. That Myers' contract will be very attractive to low-spending teams like Ottawa, Florida, Coyotes and could get some nice assets back.

One thing is clear though. The Jets need way better two way play from their younger players in the future. Guys like Perreault and Wheeler won't be around forever to help us out, the Jets need Ehlers and especially Connor and Laine to take the next steps in their 200 foot game.

 

[KingBogo]

Think our future cap issues are a bit overstated. Highly doubt Wheeler commands much more then Schief if at all.

The real question marks are probably gonna be Helly and Connor.

Wheeler can take exactly Scheifele money and we are still in a cap crunch. Scheifele and Ehlers have helped keep alive the hope of keeping this young core together. Toby and Myers will be gone for sure unless the re-sign much lower contracts. Mason is gone after year 2 for a cheap in house alternative. Morrissey's quick accent is starting to rule out the cap relief of a bridge, and Helly 's quick jump up now puts him in line for a true starter's salary. Laine's contract demands and if Connor jumps past a cap relief bridge are 2 big question marks. Bottom line is this team now has a lot of very talented players that will all need to be paid if we want to keep them.

 

[KingBogo]

Gotta move on from Myers and Mason this summer. Can't have like 9.5 million tied up on your 5/6 d-man and your backup goalie. Moving those 2 contracts gives the Jets a ton of breathing room capwise. Moreover both of these contracts should be very movable if these guys keep up their level of play. That Myers' contract will be very attractive to low-spending teams like Ottawa, Florida, Coyotes and could get some nice assets back.

One thing is clear though. The Jets need way better two way play from their younger players in the future. Guys like Perreault and Wheeler won't be around forever to help us out, the Jets need Ehlers and especially Connor and Laine to take the next steps in their 200 foot game.

Agree on all your points.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Wheeler can take exactly Scheifele money and we are still in a cap crunch. Scheifele and Ehlers have helped keep alive the hope of keeping this young core together. Toby and Myers will be gone for sure unless the re-sign much lower contracts. Mason is gone after year 2 for a cheap in house alternative. Morrissey's quick accent is starting to rule out the cap relief of a bridge, and Helly 's quick jump up now puts him in line for a true starter's salary. Laine's contract demands and if Connor jumps past a cap relief bridge are 2 big question marks. Bottom line is this team now has a lot of very talented players that will all need to be paid if we want to keep them.

They need to figure out who their core is and build around that. For instance, the Penguins built around Malkin and Crosby and let Neal go. They also didn't spend much on their D after signing their stars. Chicago built around Kane, Toews Seabrook and Keith and Crawford. After that they were able to get Hossa who desperately wanted a cup and was willing to play for less. They essentially built around 5 guys. The Jets have Laine, Ehlers, Wheeler, Schief, and Connor, Perrault and Buff is getting paid like a core guy. I love Morissey and think he is the building block of their future D. That's 5 forwards and a couple of D who are really get paid. That is way more guys to build around then any of those other perennial teams had. Something needs to give in order to manage it in a cap world. We can't afford all that star power that's why Wheeler and people put so much emphasis on this being the year.

 

[Aavco Cup]

They need to figure out who their core is and build around that. For instance, the Penguins built around Malkin and Crosby and let Neal go. They also didn't spend much on their D after signing their stars. Chicago built around Kane, Toews Seabrook and Keith and Crawford. After that they were able to get Hossa who desperately wanted a cup and was willing to play for less. They essentially built around 5 guys. The Jets have Laine, Ehlers, Wheeler, Schief, and Connor, Perrault and Buff is getting paid like a core guy. I love Morissey and think he is the building block of their future D. That's 5 forwards and a couple of D who are really get paid. That is way more guys to build around then any of those other perennial teams had. Something needs to give in order to manage it in a cap world. We can't afford all that star power that's why Wheeler and people put so much emphasis on this being the year.

It's not fair to compare us to Chicago. Hossa did not play for less. He signed a ridiculous back diving contract that was allowed under CBA rules at the time. As expected he is not playing once the $$$ dropped to $1M. The same thing goes for Keith to some extent. Those days of cap circumvention are gone.

 

[KingBogo]

They need to figure out who their core is and build around that. For instance, the Penguins built around Malkin and Crosby and let Neal go. They also didn't spend much on their D after signing their stars. Chicago built around Kane, Toews Seabrook and Keith and Crawford. After that they were able to get Hossa who desperately wanted a cup and was willing to play for less. They essentially built around 5 guys. The Jets have Laine, Ehlers, Wheeler, Schief, and Connor, Perrault and Buff is getting paid like a core guy. I love Morissey and think he is the building block of their future D. That's 5 forwards and a couple of D who are really get paid. That is way more guys to build around then any of those other perennial teams had. Something needs to give in order to manage it in a cap world. We can't afford all that star power that's why Wheeler and people put so much emphasis on this being the year.

This year and then we can probably squeeze into next year before some really tough choices need to be made. Laine's next contract will likely eliminate any type of roster flexibility.

 

[Guffman]

I would imagine that we’re only going to keep two of Trouba, Buff and Myers. Preference is to resign Trouba. If we do, I would actually keep Myers over Buff.

I’d still try to keep Wheeler and downgrade what we’re spending on our D.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

The real problem is what Laine is going to demand. I have the feeling will give Matthews the moon and with what the Oilers signed McDavid/Drai too that has me worried.

With all due respect though, I don't think Laine is close to the $ value that McDavid and Matthews are. Those guys are on a different level.

 

[Psych0dad]

With all due respect though, I don't think Laine is close to the $ value that McDavid and Matthews are. Those guys are on a different level.

Yet it's hard to show in points or impact

 

[Crocket]

It depends what Wheeler wants imo. He's a great player but his next deal doesn't kick in until hes what 33? Will he be able to defy age to be productive throigh his late 30's.

In terms of systen depth we are more strongly positioned to be able to replace him internally than Buff.

Buff is easily replaceable now. He is not playing well at all. One factor is his age, his physicality and he is grossly overplayed. He's exhausted at the end of most games and yet is still out there.

 

[Crocket]

With all due respect though, I don't think Laine is close to the $ value that McDavid and Matthews are. Those guys are on a different level.

McDavid for sure is a different level. Matthews and Laine are much closer.

 

[Crocket]

I tend to agree with Bogo from this earlier post, something has to give. If we sign Trouba, Morrissey, Helly, Lowry, Armia & Poolman for 21.5 as listed above, plus 3 more bodies @ 2.5 (to fill our roster of 23 -- positions currently filled by Enstrom, Matthias & Hendricks ), we'll have spent 82.5.

Current cap is I believe 75 and projected to perhaps increase to 80 next season.

The following summer, we need to resign or replace Wheeler, Laine, Connor, Copp, Myers, Chiarot & Mason. Some tough decisions will need to be made.

It's really tough. Buff and Mason are big $ that we can hopefully move. Buff might be hard to move but he is the least effective / most expensive roster player right now.

 

[Aavco Cup]

It's really tough. Buff and Mason are big $ that we can hopefully move. Buff might be hard to move but he is the least effective / most expensive roster player right now.

Buff isn't going anywhere. He signed to win with the kids. Chevy will not take that away from him. People just need to accept that and move on.

 

[puck stoppa]

Buff isn't going anywhere. He signed to win with the kids. Chevy will not take that away from him. People just need to accept that and move on.

Yup, Wheeler, Buff, Little. All these guys chose/will choose to resign here and stay here long term, team treats them well, they like it here, they see the upcoming talent, they were here for tough times, they want to see this thru. No way TNSE moves any of them!

 

[Adam da bomb]

It's really tough. Buff and Mason are big $ that we can hopefully move. Buff might be hard to move but he is the least effective / most expensive roster player right now.

No one wants Buff at that price. We would have to give up a first just to get anyone to take him and his contract.

 

[Peggy]

Buff isn't going anywhere. He signed to win with the kids. Chevy will not take that away from him. People just need to accept that and move on.

can the jets afford that?

scheifele
wheeler
trouba
laine
little
ehlers
Connor
hellebuyck