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F Cole Caufield - Univ. of Wisconsin, NCAA (2019, 15th, MTL) Part 2

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Mrb1p

Mrb1p

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Pavel Buchnevich said:
You are the one thats all over the place. Take a look at your Caufield opinions before and after your team drafted the player. You ranked the guy 15. Thats exactly where he went. Why not leave it there? You were right on about where he'd be picked. Your opinion aligned with the consensus. Your team drafts him, and all of a sudden here you are making this argument you wouldn't have made before the draft.

Laine was considered a generational goal-scoring prospect pre-draft. He went #2, and many thought he was 1OA in a draft with one of the better center prospects of the last 10 years. It wasn't for much else other than his goal-scoring. He probably had a little more of his game that projected better than Caufield to the NHL level like size and superior puck handling, but he's mostly only been a standstill shooter in the NHL. It still doesn't matter as he's been one of the best goal-scorers in the league since entering and his goal-scoring reputation pre-draft hasn't disappointed.

Caufield does not have the same goal-scoring reputation pre-draft. If you want to say Caufield's NTDP goals make him a generational goal scoring prospect pre-draft, you'd have to say that Hughes is the best offensive player to ever play in the NTDP or that Turcotte had the best U18 offensive season in the USHL in 30 years or that York had the second best U18 offensive season in the USHL ever for a defensemen. Probably none of those things are true because that team scored at an alarming rate, yet here you are making the argument that Caufield is a generational goal-scorer based off numbers from that team. Everyone who followed his draft knows that no one uttered those words because he wasn't viewed as such. He scored a lot of goals and is considered a very good draft prospect, but that conversation wasn't had because those who watched the games didn't feel like he had that ability.

Why does he now all of a sudden have that ability? The onus is on you to prove he has that ability, considering its a new conversation that I don't remember. It was uttered many times pre-draft that Laine was the best goal-scoring forward since Ovechkin. He was compared to Ovechkin. The best case people use for Caufield is his NTDP goal-scoring numbers because I think those that feel the need to defend his reputation know they can't make a good argument for it, aside from stats.
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Where did I ever say anything close to that?

Youre putting words in my mouth, words I havent even came close to saying. Caufield still is a 30ish prospect league wide, this did not change overnight.

Your witch hunt didnt bring anything but a broom stick in your face.
 
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tealhockey

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William H Bonney said:
But I still wouldn't sign him now. Wisconsin is going to have a lot of talent as you mention and his brother also plays for the Badgers. He can get better and maybe add a few pounds. Let him play in the NCAA for one season against bigger, stronger, and older players, as well as the WJC, and see how it goes. If he has a huge year, as I think everyone expects, then I think it makes sense to try and sign him after his NCAA season is over, let him play a few NHL games (or more depending on how Montreal's season is going) to end the year, with the plan to possibly make the team next season.
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It would be interesting to see what kind of expectations people have of his numbers. What do you guys think? If he has a point-per-game, with a 3:1 goals-assist ratio, is he on track for one-and-done? Personally I think two-to-three years tops, even if he does have great output as a freshman, he comes in after junior year (or soph) ready to play top six. He basically just has to fine-tune his game the way I see it. Would be a beast by then and not as many growing pains as the typical rookie
 
Kojo

Kojo

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He's not going to win the cy young his passing abilities are vastly underrated. If he played for us this season in 82 games I would expect something like 20 goals 18 assists or more.
 
tealhockey

tealhockey

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Pavel Buchnevich said:
Caufield does not have the same goal-scoring reputation pre-draft. If you want to say Caufield's NTDP goals make him a generational goal scoring prospect pre-draft, you'd have to say that Hughes is the best offensive player to ever play in the NTDP or that Turcotte had the best U18 offensive season in the USHL in 30 years or that York had the second best U18 offensive season in the USHL ever for a defensemen.
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What? This is weak thinking. Those guys objectively had some of the best seasons ever, did they all inflate each other? sure. But you watch Caufield and you see a pure goalscorer, one of the best goalscorers we have ever had. It is his size combined with the fact that he isn't a big athletic beast that keeps him from being considered one of the best americans we have ever produced. I don't know anyone who would underplay his goalscoring ability except basically you
 

mphmiles

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I think the depth of the latest USNTDP crop is making people overestimate the impact of scoring inflation compared to past top scorers.

During Matthews' u18 season, the guys on his line with him were Matthew Tkachuk and Jack Roslovic, and the guy feeding him breakouts was Charlie McAvoy. Are the guys on the second line of last year's U18 team a level above the guys on the 2nd line of that team? Sure, but it's not like Matthews was playing with 2nd liners much, and it's not like the guys Matthews was primarily playing with weren't insanely good too, as evidenced by how much NHL success they are already having.

The guys that were on the ice with them are at a pretty comparable level.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich

Pavel Buchnevich

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tealhockey said:
What? This is weak thinking. Those guys objectively had some of the best seasons ever, did they all inflate each other? sure. But you watch Caufield and you see a pure goalscorer, one of the best goalscorers we have ever had. It is his size combined with the fact that he isn't a big athletic beast that keeps him from being considered one of the best americans we have ever produced. I don't know anyone who would underplay his goalscoring ability except basically you
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What are you arguing against? I'm not sure I see a point in your post.
 
93LEAFS

93LEAFS

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milesandmiles said:
I think the depth of the latest USNTDP crop is making people overestimate the impact of scoring inflation compared to past top scorers.

During Matthews' u18 season, the guys on his line with him were Matthew Tkachuk and Jack Roslovic, and the guy feeding him breakouts was Charlie McAvoy. Are the guys on the second line of last year's U18 team a level above the guys on the 2nd line of that team? Sure, but it's not like Matthews was playing with 2nd liners much, and it's not like the guys Matthews was primarily playing with weren't insanely good too, as evidenced by how much NHL success they are already having.

The guys that were on the ice with them are at a pretty comparable level.
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The knock was more there usage. This coach really tried to run up scores, and there are some very blatant examples of what many would call bad sportsmanship chasing stats. We don't have the ice-time stats, but I don't remember Granato putting out his 1st PP with 3 minutes left in the game when he was already up 6 goals.
 
William H Bonney

William H Bonney

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tealhockey said:
It would be interesting to see what kind of expectations people have of his numbers. What do you guys think? If he has a point-per-game, with a 3:1 goals-assist ratio, is he on track for one-and-done? Personally I think two-to-three years tops, even if he does have great output as a freshman, he comes in after junior year (or soph) ready to play top six. He basically just has to fine-tune his game the way I see it. Would be a beast by then and not as many growing pains as the typical rookie
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Hard to say on his numbers just because there's so many unknowns, but I think it would be disappointing if he's basically not near or exceeding the best freshman goal scoring numbers of the last decade plus, which right now are Boeser with 27 and Eichel 26. That's a tall order no doubt and both those guys were teams that went to the NCAA championship game each year, but Caufield certainly has that ability.

Generally, I think expectations are he should be at least a PPG player. I'm most interested to see his playmaking. Despite what his stats may suggest, Caufield's a pretty good passer, it's just with his shot and role with the NTDP, he didn't really have to feature it. I wouldn't be surprised to see his points balance increase some in the NCAA as he'll be playing better competition and goalies. So many shooters like Caufield get their assists on rebounds and there's a lot less opportunity for that when you score 126 goals in two years while shooting 39% ('17/18) and 26% ('18/19), which is insane.
 
tealhockey

tealhockey

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William H Bonney said:
Hard to say on his numbers just because there's so many unknowns, but I think it would be disappointing if he's basically not near or exceeding the best freshman goal scoring numbers of the last decade plus, which right now are Boeser with 27 and Eichel 26. That's a tall order no doubt and both those guys were teams that went to the NCAA championship game each year, but Caufield certainly has that ability.

Generally, I think expectations are he should be at least a PPG player. I'm most interested to see his playmaking. Despite what his stats may suggest, Caufield's a pretty good passer, it's just with his shot and role with the NTDP, he didn't really have to feature it. I wouldn't be surprised to see his points balance increase some in the NCAA as he'll be playing better competition and goalies. So many shooters like Caufield get their assists on rebounds and there's a lot less opportunity for that when you score 126 goals in two years while shooting 39% ('17/18) and 26% ('18/19), which is insane.
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One factor is that the quality of goaltending/defense in the conference should drop somewhat. Ohio State get shakier defensively, Notre Dame are always hard to score against and return a stud. The rest, I don't want to say it will be free, but Penn State plays a wide-open style, Michigan goaltending was rough last year, Minnesota lost their guy Robson + should have a young d-corps. Michigan State have two solid goalies, but they lost the guy who drove their offense in Taro Hirose. I think there is a chance he could go to town, especially if he has someone like Sean Dhooghe playing with him. The key issue for me is that Wisconsin weren't a tournament quality team last year and with a bunch of freshman jumping into the mix, that is a tall order for them to get it going and firing on all cylinders early. But those are 24 of the games he'll play this year not counting playoffs, and only 8 are against teams I expect ought to be able to contain him (OSU/ND) reliably
 
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Michoulicious

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Those highlight goals/passes are certainly impressive! According to Pronman, he was the best player of the Summer Showcase.
 
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GlassesJacketShirt

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Having seen him at summer camp now, Caufield sorta reminds me of a discount Ovechkin. Same fantastic shot, same nose for the net, stocky build yet obviously packaged with a smaller stature, reduced explosiveness and less creativity. I have no doubt he'll be a fiend on the powerplay.
 
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Goldenhands

Goldenhands

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GlassesJacketShirt said:
Having seen him at summer camp now, Caufield sorta reminds me of a discount Ovechkin. Same fantastic shot, same nose for the net, stocky build yet obviously packaged with a smaller stature, reduced explosiveness and less creativity. I have no doubt he'll be a fiend on the powerplay.
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Best comparison I found is Theoren Fleury...
 
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