Speculation: Expansion draft

[odin1981]

If Z got picked, I am certain it would be done with the understanding he'd be an LTIR option for the club in order to allow them to go on the cheap.

That is the only reason he would be selected if left unprotected, and it's a huge, huge benefit for LV in the short term to select some guys with Z-like contracts. They are going to sell really well at first, and the gap between salary and cap hit would essentially be pure profit for them.


The forwards to protect are easy. Nielsen, Nyquist, Tatar, Abby, Larkin, Helm, Tatar. Z's exposed. The dmen are a little more complex, but not really. DK, Green, E. Kronwall gets exposed. Obviously Mrazek is protected.

The only exposed targets would be Z, Kronwall, Howard, Sheahan, Glendening.

Man, that's a way to screw LV over. They'd HAVE to take one of those guys. If Holland really wanted to bleep them he'd switch Z with Helm and leave Helm exposed. Dear lord, that's like playing Russian Roulette with 6 chambers loaded, just with different sized bullets.

That is under the assumption they would select a contract from us. They don't have too. There are 7 teams they can avoid and still come out with a 23 man roster.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

If Z got picked, I am certain it would be done with the understanding he'd be an LTIR option for the club in order to allow them to go on the cheap.

That is the only reason he would be selected if left unprotected, and it's a huge, huge benefit for LV in the short term to select some guys with Z-like contracts. They are going to sell really well at first, and the gap between salary and cap hit would essentially be pure profit for them.


The forwards to protect are easy. Nielsen, Nyquist, Tatar, Abby, Larkin, Helm, Tatar. Z's exposed. The dmen are a little more complex, but not really. DK, Green, E. Kronwall gets exposed. Obviously Mrazek is protected.

The only exposed targets would be Z, Kronwall, Howard, Sheahan, Glendening.

Man, that's a way to screw LV over. They'd HAVE to take one of those guys. If Holland really wanted to bleep them he'd switch Z with Helm and leave Helm exposed. Dear lord, that's like playing Russian Roulette with 6 chambers loaded, just with different sized bullets.

Why on earth with those guys protected would LV not take Anthony Mantha? And why also would you protect Jonathan Ericsson over almost literally anyone else? Doesn't he have one of the worst deals on the team that people were willing to buy out and have a 1.5M hit on the books for EIGHT years to get rid of?

 

[SoupNazi]

And yeah, even though you're eating up the bank as you go along in the deal, the amount of years the hit is spread across is fewer so you get a higher hit.

So instead of 11M over four years you get 5 all in one.

That's why the Weber deal is going to **** Nashville. It's going to be so bad that they're certainly going to amend the rules before it hits, because they don't want Nashville having a potential one year like 20M hit when Weber retires from Montreal. That's why they never should have retroactively applied the backdiving rule. It's just annoying because I can see the bailout coming because it's going to be so bad... but because the Wings didn't do it stupidly, they have to plan around those dealsz

Not to derail the thread here, but yeah, this recapture thing is idiotic.

I just don't believe we should be punishing teams for operating within the rules that existed at the time, and it amazes me that the owners actually agreed to this. I see it disappearing in the next CBA, though.

 

[Frk It]

If Z got picked, I am certain it would be done with the understanding he'd be an LTIR option for the club in order to allow them to go on the cheap.

That is the only reason he would be selected if left unprotected, and it's a huge, huge benefit for LV in the short term to select some guys with Z-like contracts. They are going to sell really well at first, and the gap between salary and cap hit would essentially be pure profit for them.


The forwards to protect are easy. Nielsen, Nyquist, Tatar, Abby, Larkin, Helm, Tatar. Z's exposed. The dmen are a little more complex, but not really. DK, Green, E. Kronwall gets exposed. Obviously Mrazek is protected.

The only exposed targets would be Z, Kronwall, Howard, Sheahan, Glendening.

Man, that's a way to screw LV over. They'd HAVE to take one of those guys. If Holland really wanted to bleep them he'd switch Z with Helm and leave Helm exposed. Dear lord, that's like playing Russian Roulette with 6 chambers loaded, just with different sized bullets.

Mantha, Sproul, and Athanasiou would be unprotected in this scenario. Although that may be contingent on them playing 40 games this year, but even still, all of them likely will.

 

[HockeyinHD]

-According to the rules regarding the Ex draft I've read, LV has to take one player from each of the 30 teams.

-Those rules also say first and second year pros are exempt. The term 'pro' is not separately defined, but I have to assume it's referring to NHL status, not 'professional' (ie, post draft) status. If that's the case, I'm not sure AA, Mantha and Sproul will need to be protected. Since the Ex draft is happening before the season (obviously) those guys would only be at most 2nd year players... and both Mantha and Sproul may only be first year guys. I don't remember off the top of my head what the games played standard is for a counting season. Wasn't it 14ish?

-I expose Kronwall and protect E because, God help us, E's deal is 'less worse' than Kronwall's and has less potential to cause grief. If Kronwall retires out early there's a recapture penalty. If E does, there isn't.

 

[Laser Rayzor]

-According to the rules regarding the Ex draft I've read, LV has to take one player from each of the 30 teams.

-Those rules also say first and second year pros are exempt. The term 'pro' is not separately defined, but I have to assume it's referring to NHL status, not 'professional' (ie, post draft) status. If that's the case, I'm not sure AA, Mantha and Sproul will need to be protected. Since the Ex draft is happening before the season (obviously) those guys would only be at most 2nd year players... and both Mantha and Sproul may only be first year guys. I don't remember off the top of my head what the games played standard is for a counting season. Wasn't it 14ish?

-I expose Kronwall and protect E because, God help us, E's deal is 'less worse' than Kronwall's and has less potential to cause grief. If Kronwall retires out early there's a recapture penalty. If E does, there isn't.

It does include AHL games

Players with two years of professional experience or less will be exempt from the process. Determining who that covers is based on the definition included in the collective bargaining agreement – meaning that 10 games played in the NHL at age 18 or 19 counts as a season, as does any American Hockey League or NHL season for players older than that.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-teams-receiving-information-potential-expansion-draft/

 

[Flowah]

It does include AHL games



http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-teams-receiving-information-potential-expansion-draft/

If it didn't we'd be so lucky. Wouldn't have to protect Mantha or AA or Sproul or XO. That's free as hell.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

It does include AHL games



http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-teams-receiving-information-potential-expansion-draft/

Yeah guys like Dreger and McKenzie have already come out and said Mantha will need to he protected. Him and nylander and other guys in that class

 

[Reddwit]

It's the principle of the thing, protecting Z and Kronwall shows respect to them, not protecting them would be a lack of respect. I'd be absolutely floored if Holland didn't protect either of them.

Unfortunately, this is so, so true. The only thing I disagree on is that Kronwall is at the level of Zetterberg in terms of loyalty or protection. I just don't see it. For so many of his core years, he played 3rd string to our defensive gods. He was the best #3 in the NHL for a long time but wasn't "the guy" in his prime years and arguably wasn't even "the guy" when he was our #1 defenseman.

He never did what Zetterberg or Datsyuk did for this club in terms of that generation of players, and I think that makes all the difference.

 

[InGusWeTrust]

I would hope you pull Kronwall and Z into the room and tell them that for the sake of the talent on this team that they aren't going to be able to protect them. If it is that important then give up a pick for Z. I seriously would put my savings that they don't take Kronner.

I would protect Z over Abdelkader (if we had to)but I am extremely bias. I have not liked 8 ever. Nobody will ever convince me otherwise. lol.

 

[Tatar Shots]

I would hope you pull Kronwall and Z into the room and tell them that for the sake of the talent on this team that they aren't going to be able to protect them. If it is that important then give up a pick for Z. I seriously would put my savings that they don't take Kronner.

I would protect Z over Abdelkader (if we had to)but I am extremely bias. I have not liked 8 ever. Nobody will ever convince me otherwise. lol.

Sake of what talent? How do you tell Zetterberg that you are protecting Sheahan over him? Even at his age with all of his back issues Zetterberg is still the best player on this team. Everyone can complain that he is just a 55 point player now, but who on this team is out scoring him? Helm, Abdelkader, and Sheahan all will never hit 55 points.

Kronwall is a different story because he pretty much just can't play anymore and Vegas will have much better options. But how many better forwards than Zetterberg will Vegas get a crack at? Hypothetically, if Z is left unprotected, there is a good chance he leads Vegas in scoring.

This team certainly isn't brimming with talented forwards to the point where they should let Zetterberg go

 

[InGusWeTrust]

Sake of what talent? How do you tell Zetterberg that you are protecting Sheahan over him? Even at his age with all of his back issues Zetterberg is still the best player on this team. Everyone can complain that he is just a 55 point player now, but who on this team is out scoring him? Helm, Abdelkader, and Sheahan all will never hit 55 points.

Kronwall is a different story because he pretty much just can't play anymore and Vegas will have much better options. But how many better forwards than Zetterberg will Vegas get a crack at? Hypothetically, if Z is left unprotected, there is a good chance he leads Vegas in scoring.

This team certainly isn't brimming with talented forwards to the point where they should let Zetterberg go

Ha, I wasn't clear enough. Z should be the 7th F protected. That was more of my response to if he wasn't going to be protected for whatever reason. Nielsen, Tatar, Nyquist, Athanasiou, Mantha, Zetteberg, and one of Abby, Glenny, Helm. Unless somehow Vanek gets resigned here then you take him and let them pick between the crap contracts of Abby, Glenny, Helm, or the other route with SHeahan. Think it goes between 8 and 43 in that debate.

While Z could be the best. I won't be surprised if there are a couple of older vets in the league that waive or are left unprotected and get grabbed. Like a Nash (However I think he has to waive his NMC for that)...but that we will have to wait and see!

But who knows, maybe DET goes with the 8/1 set up. Don't see why they should but you never know

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Detroit will lose in order of likelihood
-Sheehan
- marchenko
-howard

Don't see LV taking a helm or HE and no chance we expose Mantha, aa or sproul

We will protect 7-3-1

 

[Tatar Shots]

Ha, I wasn't clear enough. Z should be the 7th F protected. That was more of my response to if he wasn't going to be protected for whatever reason. Nielsen, Tatar, Nyquist, Athanasiou, Mantha, Zetteberg, and one of Abby, Glenny, Helm. Unless somehow Vanek gets resigned here then you take him and let them pick between the crap contracts of Abby, Glenny, Helm, or the other route with SHeahan. Think it goes between 8 and 43 in that debate.

While Z could be the best. I won't be surprised if there are a couple of older vets in the league that waive or are left unprotected and get grabbed. Like a Nash (However I think he has to waive his NMC for that)...but that we will have to wait and see!

But who knows, maybe DET goes with the 8/1 set up. Don't see why they should but you never know

Oh I see. I agree with your forward
Protections. Just don't understand why so many here are talking about leaving Z unprotected. In regards to Vanek I would try and sign him after the expansion draft

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Oh I see. I agree with your forward
Protections. Just don't understand why so many here are talking about leaving Z unprotected. In regards to Vanek I would try and sign him after the expansion draft

Because they think he's garbage now. obey86 has been banging the Zetterberg is trash drum for two years now.

And they're hoping to leave a mid-30s guy unprotected so they can protect the 23 year old du jour (yes, I know we have young guys worth protecting...).

 

[avssuc]

Why on earth with those guys protected would LV not take Anthony Mantha? And why also would you protect Jonathan Ericsson over almost literally anyone else? Doesn't he have one of the worst deals on the team that people were willing to buy out and have a 1.5M hit on the books for EIGHT years to get rid of?

With the way Ericsson has been playing, I'd protect him over Dekeyser. While his hip and hand may not hold up, that's not the point. I think Ericsson is essentially as valuable as a #4, with less $$$ and term. If you can somehow lessen the coming LTIR crunch by moving Zetterberg or Kronwall, it helps in the rebuild and FA acquisition.

By the averages Ericsson is still in his prime. Dekeyser entered his almost 3 years ago. While E is a year or 2 from leaving his, $.750 in cap is a lesser ELC, or added money elsewhere. If things continue, and Dekeyser can't prove he is at least a poor man's #2/3, then I'd leave dude out in the cold.

 

[InGusWeTrust]

Oh I see. I agree with your forward
Protections. Just don't understand why so many here are talking about leaving Z unprotected. In regards to Vanek I would try and sign him after the expansion draft

To me we are in a perfect spot to lose either a guy who is just taking up space, or lose a guy with a bad contract. This expansion could not have came at a better time for Detroit...if you ask me.

Maybe Holland knew it was coming and had to force VGK to pick up a bad contract from us to restrict what theyre able to do

 

[Tatar Shots]

Because they think he's garbage now. obey86 has been banging the Zetterberg is trash drum for two years now.

And they're hoping to leave a mid-30s guy unprotected so they can protect the 23 year old du jour (yes, I know we have young guys worth protecting...).

I really wonder what some of the Zetterberg trashers on here would be saying if we had the Toews contract. Makes 4.5 million more than 36 year old broken back Zetterberg but is still out produced by Z.

I wouldn't be to surprised if Vegas takes Coreau as there 3rd goalie. With all of our crappy long term contracts, they may be better served saying no thanks to what we have to offer. Coreau has posted very solid numbers in the AHL and wouldn't be a bad choice salary and age wise.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

With the way Ericsson has been playing, I'd protect him over Dekeyser. While his hip and hand may not hold up, that's not the point. I think Ericsson is essentially as valuable as a #4, with less $$$ and term. If you can somehow lessen the coming LTIR crunch by moving Zetterberg or Kronwall, it helps in the rebuild and FA acquisition.

By the averages Ericsson is still in his prime. Dekeyser entered his almost 3 years ago. While E is a year or 2 from leaving his, $.750 in cap is a lesser ELC, or added money elsewhere. If things continue, and Dekeyser can't prove he is at least a poor man's #2/3, then I'd leave dude out in the cold.

Yeah... getting Zetterberg or Kronwall expansion draft selected does **** all in clearing out the LTIR crunch. Moving them just locks in the cap recapture pool. It doesn't make it go away. And then, you lose the ability to put them on LTIR to avoid the hit. LV wouldn't have the recapture risk, so they'd let Zetterberg retire when he wants to retire, so you're giving up control of when you take the LTIR hit for no benefit. That is dumb... no other word for it.

And what the ****? DeKeyser entered his prime... when he entered the league? But Ericsson is just now hitting his after about five or six years? Somehow, I don't think you know what you're talking about... because I certainly can't piece it together.

Ericsson, even though he finally looks okay as a defenseman again, is still an overpaid piece of garbage. He needs bottom pairing minutes to look remotely useful. His 4.25M is so much worse than DeKeyser's 5M that it isn't funny.

E: Even further... Jonathan Ericsson is 32 and his contract runs to 36. DeKeyser is 26. He'll be 31 when his contract expires... or, you know, younger than Ericsson is right this second.

And um... yeah, Ericsson's hip and hand holding out are pretty damn relevant to a decision to hold him. I'd rather have a 5M player who still has some time to hit his stride and doesn't have well-documented injury problems with the ability to bump him down a pairing over a 4.25M player with creaky hips and a shattered hand who is looking good on the bottom pairing, but would be completely useless if he slowed down at all.

You can hate DeKeyser all you want, but there is no comparison between his value and Ericsson's.

 

[avssuc]

Yeah... getting Zetterberg or Kronwall expansion draft selected does **** all in clearing out the LTIR crunch. Moving them just locks in the cap recapture pool. It doesn't make it go away. And then, you lose the ability to put them on LTIR to avoid the hit. LV wouldn't have the recapture risk, so they'd let Zetterberg retire when he wants to retire, so you're giving up control of when you take the LTIR hit for no benefit. That is dumb... no other word for it.

And what the ****? DeKeyser entered his prime... when he entered the league? But Ericsson is just now hitting his after about five or six years? Somehow, I don't think you know what you're talking about... because I certainly can't piece it together.

Ericsson, even though he finally looks okay as a defenseman again, is still an overpaid piece of garbage. He needs bottom pairing minutes to look remotely useful. His 4.25M is so much worse than DeKeyser's 5M that it isn't funny.

It's possible that I don't know what I'm talking about, but Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports says you're statistically likely to eat crow. Reading and research go a long way to helping provide informed opinions and replies.

Some may use the injuries on one side and late age entrance on the other as variables that skew, but there's a reason he entered the league late... and it's become clear this season. The study findings on improvement and decline symmetry tell us quite a bit. The fact that Ericsson was a low end top pair, coupled with DeKeyser being abysmal in the same spot may speak volumes. Next to Smith, DeKeyser and Marchenko are easily the worst defenders on the team (usage dependent).

http://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054

 

[avssuc]

E: Even further... Jonathan Ericsson is 32 and his contract runs to 36. DeKeyser is 26. He'll be 31 when his contract expires... or, you know, younger than Ericsson is right this second.

And um... yeah, Ericsson's hip and hand holding out are pretty damn relevant to a decision to hold him. I'd rather have a 5M player who still has some time to hit his stride and doesn't have well-documented injury problems with the ability to bump him down a pairing over a 4.25M player with creaky hips and a shattered hand who is looking good on the bottom pairing, but would be completely useless if he slowed down at all.

You can hate DeKeyser all you want, but there is no comparison between his value and Ericsson's.

To reply to your added content:

-36, yep. A year and change off of the 90% playing percentile.

-31, indeed. Still, he hasn't played well in the same position that Ericsson held down for 3 years. In fact, it looks like other areas of his game are hurting as well. This regression and lower performance in the same position makes it easy to speculate that he would be a much bigger risk when all factors are considered. One full year should be more than enough time to decide here.

DeKeyser looks panicked anytime the puck touches his stick. He can't clear the crease, never stands up for his teammates, and only local press seems to think there is any upside. NHL teams only have the ability to carry so many PIM killing D. If they exceed their ability, it becomes clear on the score-sheet.

-It's not hate, it's research coupled with watching both play. I'm not all that high on Ericsson either, but he fills a role well at this point and may carry that through his contract; a contract that permits a low end ELC to be rostered. ELC's plus success are the new NHL mold.


What I mentioned previously in terms of DeKeyser and the coming cap apocalypses:

Looking forward to a 'very real' LTIR forecast, the Wings are in the suck pretty deep. With no idea of what the Vegas expansion will do to the cap, folks might anticipate a $3 million per year raise as per the norm. That puts the cap at roughly $77 million in 2018. That means the Wings will only be able to exceed the 2018 summer cap by $7.7 million, or put more horrifically, a half-million less than what Hank and Weiss add up to. This fails to include Franzen, Kronwall, and Ericsson (and if the parts keep breaking, 50/50 on Helm). Worst case (minus the hyperbole on Helm) means the Wings will have $20,704,545 spent on buyouts and LTIR to start 2018. The team will need to be $13,004,545 under the cap to start the 2018 season (meeting the 10% summer overage limit), placing the internal cap at $63,995,455. Only the Cains have that much space right now, and that's with 7 entry level contracts. The Wings may have to stay $13+ million under that anticipated cap with $44,666,667 spent as of now, $19,328,788 left to potentially keep:

-A full year after Tatar, Athanasiou, Jurco, Russo, Ouellet, and Frk will need a bridge or extension

-After doing something with Vanek

-In the summer that Larkin, Mantha, Lil Bert, Sproul, Coreau, Mrazek, Marchenko, Nastasiuk, Nosek, and Patterson will need to be bridged or extended

-After replacing/re-signing Green.

If all players are kept, they will need to average $1.136 on the contracts.

Heck, it's easy to see Athanasiou, Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi, and Mrazek commanding $13 in space (current deals accounted for on the flip). That leaves 6 million to replace Vanek, Tatar, and Green, and leaves them 2 short of roster minimums on forwards, 3 defenseman short of the minimum (a 15 man roster 2 line, 10 forwards and 3 defensemen, 2 goalies under this LTIR hypothetical). So in other words, they probably can't even ice a team at this point! Hence the value of the ELC, and dumping guys in 'way' over their heads in expansion or trade.


It's irrational to think that all of those players will still be around for this to happen, and the ones in the minors don't move the cap, but we 'are' talking about a Tradeoholic, prospect rushing, tough as nails salary negotiator on organizational products... the myth, the man, the legend... Ken Holland. I suppose this assumes that he hasn't been run off by an angry mob by then.

*** I didn't even touch on the NHL trend of moving away from bridge deals. That goes a ways in terms of the money they have to spend later; Larkin, Mantha, and Sproul seeming to be on top of that list.


So with potential, role comparison, and contracts/cap ramifications added in, it makes absolutely no sense not to try everything to get away from DeKeyser. Focus on the micro all you like, this can't be argued without looking at the macro. One thing is very clear, Holland has built one hell of a dumpster fire.

 

[jkutswings]

^ And the longer they wait, the messier it gets...

 

[avssuc]

^ And the longer they wait, the messier it gets...

Psychology tells us that a large number of fans 'not accepting' this probable reality is expected, but it also tells us that the management getting paid to address this should be burning this roster down as of yesterday. Of course, if revenue generation is the only concern, the few fans that see through BS are of little concern. If Bryan Campbell and Ryan Martin aren't sounding the alarm every day to the higher-ups, they need to quit in protest and tell the press why they did such. There's no way they will work again in the NHL if they're willing captains aids on this sinking ship.



"Harvard psychology professor Daniel Gilbert argues that humans are exquisitely adapted to respond to immediate problems, but not so good at more probable, but distant dangers."

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5530483

 

[avssuc]

So, in that hypothetical, how would you spend the $19 million in cap space for the 2018-19 season? Pick from:

Green
Tatar
Athanasiou
Jurco
Russo
Ouellet
Frk
Vanek
Larkin
Mantha
Bertuzzi
Sproul
Coreau
Mrazek
Marchenko
Nastasiuk
Nosek
Patterson
Smith

You need to add 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goalie to the roster to meet the minimum.

I guess the answer depends on if you want the team to be in mega-tank mode from 2018 to 2020, losing guys coming off of ELC's along the way.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

It's possible that I don't know what I'm talking about, but Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports says you're statistically likely to eat crow. Reading and research go a long way to helping provide informed opinions and replies.

Some may use the injuries on one side and late age entrance on the other as variables that skew, but there's a reason he entered the league late... and it's become clear this season. The study findings on improvement and decline symmetry tell us quite a bit. The fact that Ericsson was a low end top pair, coupled with DeKeyser being abysmal in the same spot may speak volumes. Next to Smith, DeKeyser and Marchenko are easily the worst defenders on the team (usage dependent).

[URL="

Ericsson didn't "hold anything down". He was ****ing terrible. He was part of "the worst defense we've ever had" last year. Him and Kronwall on the top pairing tanked our D core. He, again, was so bad that people were calling for him to be bought out and 1.5M kept on the books till 2024. He wasn't a low-end top pair. He was a bottom pair getting top pair minutes.

And I still am not understanding one iota your insistence that Ericsson is somehow in his hockey playing prime, but DeKeyser (who is 6 years younger) is past his.

Looking statistically over their careers... DeKeyser has potted 50-100% more points with consistently worse zone starts. Danny DeKeyser is a better hockey player than Jonathan Ericsson. Judging in probable health issues and the likelihood that a guy with documented hip issues isn't going to follow a gentle decline curve... I don't care what statistical bull**** you throw, there is no way that DDK at 5M is a worse contract than Ericsson at 4.25M.

You are just using those statistics incorrectly as you are ignoring every microdifference. Jonathan Ericsson has borked hips. He's got a destroyed finger that may never be the same. The "average decline curve" doesn't apply to him the same as it does a guy like Brian Campbell who's never really had too much in the way of injuries. Further, Ericsson is a big dude who makes his hay, when he's good, by imposing his size and will on other players. On sticking up for his teammates. Will he be able to do that as a 34 year old with **** up hips? And if he starts playing kittenish because he's slow and his injuries are piling up... he's not a borderline middle pairing guy anymore.