News Article: Expansion Draft: Protection list, who Seattle might take

[Embiid]

Is Ben Simmons eligible?

 

[NateThompson44]

Is Ben Simmons eligible?

No way they would pick that loser, even if they could

 

[The Madrigal]

Is Ben Simmons eligible?

We could talk about Simmons but for some reason somebody closed down both Sixers we had going on.

 

[deadhead]

Some players rise in the playoffs, some fall.
JVR and Ghost are not playoff performers.

Couts and Provorov are. G was great, then awful, last few PO he's been solid, but not special.

Hayes has stepped up, Voracek depends on 'tude, when he's physical he's good, when he's finesse, he's meh.

The kids, the jury is still out.

 

[Don Nachbaur 26]

Some people were upset we protected Laughton over Raffl.

Dave Isaac wanted Philly to protect Brennan and Leier.

 

[The Madrigal]

Dave Isaac wasn't too bright, certainly no Bill Meltzer.

 

[Magua]

Those 13 points in 40 previous playoff games — since we are fond of using those samples — definitely screams Hayes is a clutch playoff performer. Unlike some other bums, he rises! He’s been one of the worst 5v5 scorers for the Flyers for the past 125 games, but luckily those don’t count either. Aren’t narratives based entirely on a single round or two just a load of fun?

 

[deadhead]

Those 13 points in 40 previous playoff games — since we are fond of using those samples — definitely screams Hayes is a clutch playoff performer. Unlike some other bums, he rises! He’s been one of the worst 5v5 scorers for the Flyers for the past 125 games, but luckily those don’t count either. Aren’t narratives based entirely on a single round or two just a load of fun?

It's better than not performing. Like Ghost.

 

[mja]

Some players rise in the playoffs, some fall.
JVR and Ghost are not playoff performers.

This is the biggest cliche of them all. Keith Primeau was a complete playoff dud until suddenly he was a playoff god. Yzerman was killed for years until suddenly he became the archetype of the playoff warrior. Lindros was knocked for his performance against Detroit after completely dominating the Rangers literally the series before.

Ghost has played in a whopping 17 playoff games being jerked around the line-up, a third of them during his rookie season, all of them horribly coached. Near a third of JVR's playoff games came during his rookie season when he was a bottom six winger getting swapped out with Darrol Powe, and then he was the breakout star of the Buffalo series the next year, which had us all dreaming of him becoming a perennial 40 goal a year star.

You have your narratives and then you twist the evidence to support them.

 

[deadhead]

This is the biggest cliche of them all. Keith Primeau was a complete playoff dud until suddenly he was a playoff god. Yzerman was killed for years until suddenly he became the archetype of the playoff warrior. Lindros was knocked for his performance against Detroit after completely dominating the Rangers literally the series before.

Ghost has played in a whopping 17 playoff games being jerked around the line-up, a third of them during his rookie season, all of them horribly coached. Near a third of JVR's playoff games came during his rookie season when he was a bottom six winger getting swapped out with Darrol Powe, and then he was the breakout star of the Buffalo series the next year, which had us all dreaming of him becoming a perennial 40 goal a year star.

You have your narratives and then you twist the evidence to support them.

JVR had 11 ES points in 25 PO games from age 21-23, excluding that rookie season.
Four year hiatus.
Last 3 PO Series: 5 ES points in 25 games from 27-30.

Ghost got plenty of prime PT his first two PO series, didn't do squat and was targeted by the Pen's forecheck.
An offensive defenseman needs to outscore Hagg.

Voracek hasn't played up to snuff for 4 PO series, at some point it's a trend.

You can make excuses for your favorites, but they get paid to perform in the post-season. They haven't, and that's one reason why the Flyers have struggled in the post-season, your best players should carry you, while one or two lesser lights seem to come out of nowhere each post-season, but they rarely repeat (or they'd be top players).
ES Playoff scoring - note most top (not superstars) score a little below their regular season rate but not far below
Bergeron 153g 21-55 76
Krejci 156g 30-56 86
Barzal 49g 9-17 26
Nelson 67g 20-14 34
Guentzel 51g 21-19 40
Rust 72g 18-6 24
Backstrom 133 27-41 68
Oshie 92g 14-23 37
Coleman 52g 8-16 24
Gourde 68g 11-11 22
Killorn 11g 22-23 45
Point 66g 23-24 47
Palat 114g 26-30 56
JT 37 g 13-8 21
Mathews 32g 10-7 17
Marner 32g 4-11 15
Nylander 32g 8-12 20
Paveliski 155g 35-35 70
Benn 59g 12-23 35
Schiefle 33g 12-12 24
Wheeler 60g 6-21 27
ROR 52g 12-18 30
Schenn 63g 7-14 21
Hoffman 33g 8-6 14

Letang 142g 13-37 50
Hedman 131g 11-38 49
Carlson 117g 6-25 31
Krug 79g 5-17 22
Klingberg 52g 6-18 24
Josi 81g 8-21 29
Elis 74g 5-27 32
Ekholm 74g 5-21 26
Jones 37g 3-8 11
Hamilton 54g 5-10 15

 

[Rebels57]

This is the biggest cliche of them all. Keith Primeau was a complete playoff dud until suddenly he was a playoff god. Yzerman was killed for years until suddenly he became the archetype of the playoff warrior. Lindros was knocked for his performance against Detroit after completely dominating the Rangers literally the series before.

Ghost has played in a whopping 17 playoff games being jerked around the line-up, a third of them during his rookie season, all of them horribly coached. Near a third of JVR's playoff games came during his rookie season when he was a bottom six winger getting swapped out with Darrol Powe, and then he was the breakout star of the Buffalo series the next year, which had us all dreaming of him becoming a perennial 40 goal a year star.

You have your narratives and then you twist the evidence to support them.

He's been doing it for 7+ years and everyone still indulges him so no one should be angry about at this point.

 

[deadhead]

If Hayes had gone belly up in the playoffs, there would be no end of threads pointing that out, and no mention of SSS.
Now I don't think he's gonna be a PO mainstay, but he did what he was signed to do.

The excuses for high paid players who don't produce fall flat, Ghost was healthy his first two PO appearances, Voracek and JVR have been healthy, unlike Couts who gutted through injuries, same with Provorov.

I can be patient with TK, who is still learning how to play in traffic without becoming road kill, or Farabee who is a couple years away from his peak, or Sanheim, who is still learning how to convert puck possession into points.

But highly paid players in their peak years (25-30) are the core of any playoff team - if they don't produce, you don't have a chance.

Even with Hart's meltdown last season, the fact that he could go mano mano against Price in the playoffs and prevail tells you, unlike Bob, he has "it." While he didn't play as well against the Isles, he didn't embarrass himself either.

 

[mja]

239 games wasn't enough to judge Hak but 17 games (12 of them under Hak getting completely outcoached, 5 of them being completely dicked around by AV, including a game where he was the best player on the ice for either squad) is enough to deem Ghost a playoff flop. Got it.

 

[deadhead]

239 games wasn't enough to judge Hak but 17 games (12 of them under Hak getting completely outcoached, 5 of them being completely dicked around by AV, including a game where he was the best player on the ice for either squad) is enough to deem Ghost a playoff flop. Got it.

Hak made the playoffs twice with a crappy team, that's enough to judge him.
Ghost has 1 ES assist in the POs. No ES goals. That's enough to judge him.

 

[mja]

Hak made the playoffs twice with a crappy team, that's enough to judge him.
Ghost has 1 ES assist in the POs. No ES goals. That's enough to judge him.

You cannot be serious with this take. This is bonkers, even for you. ES goals, for a defenseman, in a 17 game sample?

YOU JUST DON'T LIKE THE SMALL and/or SOFT BOYS. We get it. I'd rather you just come out and own it instead of trying to lawyer your position into seeming meaningfully considered.

 

[mja]

I don't know why Chuck went out and got Braun when he's clearly not a playoff performer. He only has 3 goals and 15 points in 100 playoff games.

 

[mja]

Niskanen was a bad move, too. Only 6 goals and 42 points in a 140 game sample. That's pretty much identical to Ghost's production in a much smaller sample. I'm not sure how much of those were at even strength but I imagine it's not all of them. Another non-playoff performer. Chuck must be the worst GM in history to keep adding all of these non-playoff performers to the club.

 

[deadhead]

Niskanen was a bad move, too. Only 6 goals and 42 points in a 140 game sample. That's pretty much identical to Ghost's production in a much smaller sample. I'm not sure how much of those were at even strength but I imagine it's not all of them. Another non-playoff performer. Chuck must be the worst GM in history to keep adding all of these non-playoff performers to the club.

Uh, no. Ghost is on a 5 point in 82 game pace at ES.
Niskanen was on a 19 point pace. Braun a 12 point pace.
Provorov a 34 point pace, Sanheim a 29 point pace.

 

[mja]

Uh, no. Ghost is on a 5 point in 82 game pace at ES.
Niskanen was on a 19 point pace. Braun a 12 point pace.
Provorov a 34 point pace, Sanheim a 29 point pace.

Total production is about dead even, as I said. What's the breakdown there on ES goals, since you argued that, incredibly, over a 17 game sample for a defenseman? I'm just wondering, since Ghost is pacing for 9.6 goals overall per 82 while Niskanen averaged a mere 3.5 goals per 82 over the course of his career.

 

[GoFightWin16]

He was a regular in the SO for many years until he hit a cold streak and lost his place. But it’s frankly bananas to asses a star player’s worth by how they do in the shootout. Ovechkin is at 31.2% for his career, Giroux is 30.6%, Jake is 30%, and Bergeron is only at 27.8%.

I don't care about SO %, what bothers me is the Head Coach looks past him and selects others to go before him. Your $8.25M, offensively-gifted player is bypassed in SO. He's 1 for 8 in the last three years. 8 chances in 3 yrs?

I didn't assess a star player by his shootout %. It tells me a lot when others are picked to go before you. Cold streak and lost his place? Please! Try again. Did Ovechkin, Giroux, or Bergeron ever hit a cold streak and lose their place? Love Giroux, and would always select him in a crucial situation. Not Jake.

 

[deadhead]

There's no one to pass the puck to on the SO.

 

[Curufinwe]

Evolving-Hockey

Tampa Bay: In my opinion, the Lightning will likely be hit the hardest by expansion. Whether it be through the draft or a forced trade ahead of the draft, it’s hard to see them coming out of July 21st unscathed. Now, does that mean they’ll be worse? Well, probably. They’ll still be quite good though. Right now, Yanni Gourde is the clear pick for Seattle. Not only is he a center among a very underwhelming group of exposed players, he has the highest projection among all players (both rate and raw GAR). However, if Tampa does indeed opt for the 8/1 protection option, which it seems like they might, I can’t imagine Gourde will be on the team once the draft comes around. We believe that electing to protect 7 forwards and 3 defensemen, exposing McDonagh, would be the best option for Tampa. However, the Lightning have enjoyed a steady core on the backend over the last couple of seasons and will likely want to protect that. Either way, it seems unlikely they’ll be able to keep contracts like Gourde’s, so he may be gone either way. If Gourde is gone before the draft, Mathieu Joseph and Alex Killorn are the next options based on our projections. Both players are quite good and would make great selections for Seattle.

Philadelphia: Some people may be surprised by Gostisbehere’s projection here (given he passed through waivers this year and the Flyers haven’t been able to find a trade partner), but basically everything we have at our disposal indicates he’s a top-tier D aside from whatever the hell is going on in Philly. JVR or Voracek are the next options for PHI, but they’re far behind Ghost.

 

[Curufinwe]

HockeyBuzz.com - Bill Meltzer - Quick Hits: Expansion Draft, Entry Draft, a Flyers Pilgrimage

My protection list would be as follows:

Seven forwards: Claude Giroux (NMC), Kevin Hayes (NMC), Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom, and Nolan Patrick.

Three defensemen: Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim (RFA), Phil Myers.

One goaltender: Carter Hart (RFA).

The unprotected list would include all of the following: Jakub Voracek, James van Riemsdyk, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Shayne Gostisbehere, Justin Braun, Robert Hägg and Felix Sandström (RFA, first year of ELC was burned while on loan to HV71 in the SHL).

 

[The Madrigal]

HockeyBuzz.com - Bill Meltzer - Quick Hits: Expansion Draft, Entry Draft, a Flyers Pilgrimage

Thats exactly what it should and likely will be.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Contracts aside, Jake, JVR, and Ghost has to be one of the better trios available right?