Expansion draft discussion

[Richard88]

Nice summary of the situation. I don’t know the exact language of the relevant rules, hopefully the word « played » is used.

On the other hand, I’m not too optimistic because he did get paid for that lost season. Sounds to me like a « professional season ».

If it comes down to it we could always make a deal with them to keep Timmins. But there's also the chance that Seattle actually prefer Graves over Timmins, due to his size, experience, and due to Timmins' history with concussions.

 

[Bender]

Donskoi's metrics have fallen off a cliff after joining the Avs, and he's clearly the ideal guy to eject in the expansion draft.

You can easily see from his underlying stats with San Jose what it was that attracted our analytics guys to sign him, but his metrics have fallen off hard since then, and he's clearly been our worst forward since signing.


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If Donskoi doesn't revert to how he played in San Jose he's very likely going to find himself off this team one way well before his contract ends, whether it's a trade or the expansion draft.

Personally I wouldn't be opposed at all to sending a reasonably valued draft pick or a B prospect to Seattle to entice them to take Donskoi, as losing him would be the optimal outcome based on our roster outlook.

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Removing Donskoi would allow Compher to slide back to RW, thus creating the space at 3C for Newhook to slot in. Kaut should be able to continue to play at a 3rd line/middle 6 level as he did in his 9 games last season; and either Kaut or Nichuskin would play on the 2nd line. An experienced 4th line forward would need to be signed to round out the lineup (whether it's Bellemare, Paquette, or someone else).

Capwise we'd have plenty of space having resigned all our key guys. We would be able to retain our extremely strong defensive depth, losing only Ian Cole from this years roster.

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I think Donskoi was great to start the season all the way up until the high hit from Lindgren in that game against the Rangers. With the injuries we had to start the year, I thought he did an excellent job filling-in especially when you consider that he's a 3rd line RW and probably shouldn't be playing up in the lineup. After he came back, he was a different player and then he got hit high again by Brendan Lemieux in another game against the Rangers at the end of the season. That's a tough 1st season and he didn't look anywhere close to 100% in the playoffs either.

I for one, am not writing him off as quickly as most since I was really impressed with the fact that he was able to put up 29 points in his first 42 games with the Avs before being injured. I'm not expecting numbers like that again but I think he's the type of player that can chip in and help on the 3rd line as long as it's clear his injuries are behind him.

I think Compher is the odd-man out moreso than Donskoi. In my opinion, Compher is in the same kind of situation that Kerfoot was before he was traded. Good player that ideally plays on a team's 2nd line but probably not on a contending team. A sort of place-holder while the younger talent develops. He's the kind of player that could potentially put-up 40 points on a bottom-15 team as long as he's getting Top-6 minutes. I feel like Compher is not a great fit for a 3rd or 4th line because he's probably just 'ok' defensively, not particularly strong on faceoffs and isn't really a physical element either.

Unlike most, I believe Compher has some value around the league. Maybe not 'great value' but there are a bunch of teams that don't have a great Top-6 and he could be a better fit for them than he is for us.

 

[shadow1]

I think Donskoi was great to start the season all the way up until the high hit from Lindgren in that game against the Rangers. With the injuries we had to start the year, I thought he did an excellent job filling-in especially when you consider that he's a 3rd line RW and probably shouldn't be playing up in the lineup. After he came back, he was a different player and then he got hit high again by Brendan Lemieux in another game against the Rangers at the end of the season. That's a tough 1st season and he didn't look anywhere close to 100% in the playoffs either.

I for one, am not writing him off as quickly as most since I was really impressed with the fact that he was able to put up 29 points in his first 42 games with the Avs before being injured. I'm not expecting numbers like that again but I think he's the type of player that can chip in and help on the 3rd line as long as it's clear his injuries are behind him.

I think Compher is the odd-man out moreso than Donskoi. In my opinion, Compher is in the same kind of situation that Kerfoot was before he was traded. Good player that ideally plays on a team's 2nd line but probably not on a contending team. A sort of place-holder while the younger talent develops. He's the kind of player that could potentially put-up 40 points on a bottom-15 team as long as he's getting Top-6 minutes. I feel like Compher is not a great fit for a 3rd or 4th line because he's probably just 'ok' defensively, not particularly strong on faceoffs and isn't really a physical element either.

Unlike most, I believe Compher has some value around the league. Maybe not 'great value' but there are a bunch of teams that don't have a great Top-6 and he could be a better fit for them than he is for us.

My thoughts as well. Donskoi started the playoffs off well (6p in 9gp) until he injured his leg/ankle, became slow as molasses, and eventually missed the end of the Dallas series. He was good when he was healthy last year.

 

[shadow1]

So you buy his ass out

Yeah, Johnson will be 33 with two years left on his deal.

He had a really good 9 games in the bubble, but frankly his game has taken a huge nose dive the last two years. He's easily the most overpaid player on the team and simply can't stay healthy.

 

[Balthazar]

Donskoi is shit next to Compher but so is Nuke and so was Namestnikov. Everyone's offense die on JTC's wing.


I'd like to see him with a real center.

 

[Richard88]

I think Donskoi was great to start the season all the way up until the high hit from Lindgren in that game against the Rangers. With the injuries we had to start the year, I thought he did an excellent job filling-in especially when you consider that he's a 3rd line RW and probably shouldn't be playing up in the lineup. After he came back, he was a different player and then he got hit high again by Brendan Lemieux in another game against the Rangers at the end of the season. That's a tough 1st season and he didn't look anywhere close to 100% in the playoffs either.

I for one, am not writing him off as quickly as most since I was really impressed with the fact that he was able to put up 29 points in his first 42 games with the Avs before being injured. I'm not expecting numbers like that again but I think he's the type of player that can chip in and help on the 3rd line as long as it's clear his injuries are behind him.

I think Compher is the odd-man out moreso than Donskoi. In my opinion, Compher is in the same kind of situation that Kerfoot was before he was traded. Good player that ideally plays on a team's 2nd line but probably not on a contending team. A sort of place-holder while the younger talent develops. He's the kind of player that could potentially put-up 40 points on a bottom-15 team as long as he's getting Top-6 minutes. I feel like Compher is not a great fit for a 3rd or 4th line because he's probably just 'ok' defensively, not particularly strong on faceoffs and isn't really a physical element either.

Unlike most, I believe Compher has some value around the league. Maybe not 'great value' but there are a bunch of teams that don't have a great Top-6 and he could be a better fit for them than he is for us.

My thoughts as well. Donskoi started the playoffs off well (6p in 9gp) until he injured his leg/ankle, became slow as molasses, and eventually missed the end of the Dallas series. He was good when he was healthy last year.

Donskoi is shit next to Compher but so is Nuke and so was Namestnikov. Everyone's offense die on JTC's wing.

I'd like to see him with a real center.

Interesting rebuttals, thanks.

Whilst I may have been a tad harsh on singling out Donskoi, it's a bit simplistic to simply point at Compher and say that he dragged Donskoi down.

The data from last year suggests that BOTH Compher and Donskoi were bad last year, so I'm not sure we can just pin the blame on Compher for Donskoi being bad.

Look at where combinations involving Donskoi appear on the 5v5 xG chart below (highlighted in red boxes).

The only combination that has Donskoi to the right of the dividing line between good and bad is 29+72 (Mackinnon + Donskoi). All other combinations are to the left among the worst combinations on the team.

As you can see, regardless of whether Donskoi was playing with Jost (17+72), Burakovsky and Kadri (72 + 91 + 95), or Compher (37+72), his metrics were statistically close, and all of them were "bad". So it's clearly not just Compher's fault that Donskoi has played poorly.

That said, Compher (37) was also notably bad.

 

[henchman21]

Dong is worse than Compher, but I'd argue Compher's biggest issue is the Avs just won't give up on him at center. He skates well enough to play the position and when he's having a good game he can be impactful there... he just isn't good enough consistently there to center a line. He needs to be stapled to wing and not be relied on a driver from the middle of the ice. His game would improve there and his mistakes would be hidden with a good 3C. He's never going to be a great player, he'd be an average 3rd liner that is fairly frustrating. If the Avs keep trying to force Compher into a 3C role, he's going to continue to be very frustrating.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Donskoi is an East-West style player in the heaviest North-South transition system in the NHL. He’s not going to work out here.

He has talent. He seems like an awesome guy. But this is a complete square peg in a round hole type situation.

I like that Bednar is trying him on the PK. It may not work but it’s worth a shot to get him some more minutes. If we can get value out of him on PK2 and use him on the PK he can play minimal 5v5 minutes and still bring something to the table.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I honestly think Newhook could make a real positive impact at 3C for this team if they decide to bring him up later in the year. His vision and play though the middle of the ice is much better than Compher’s.

It’s just a question of, if the Avs want to burn a year of his ELC. I think he’d immediately walk in and upgrade the position.

 

[Balthazar]

I honestly think Newhook could make a real positive impact at 3C for this team if they decide to bring him up later in the year. His vision and play though the middle of the ice is much better than Compher’s.

It’s just a question of, if the Avs want to burn a year of his ELC. I think he’d immediately walk in and upgrade the position.

Judging him from what I've seen in the WJC it felt like he needs one more year before being NHL ready. He was good but his game isn't as mature as the guys who were ready to jump in the NHL.

I just wish we'd have signed a 3C for cheap on a one year contract. I keep going back to Haula but damn, he was that guy.

 

[henchman21]

Trocheck was the move the Avs really missed IMO. Younger guy on a good deal who could have helped for 3 playoff runs and 2 whole seasons. Could have been had for 2 B level prospects since it was a clear dump. Priskie could be argued as a high B low A level guy... so Timmins + Kaut would have easily sealed up that deal...

 

[Richard88]

Trocheck was the move the Avs really missed IMO. Younger guy on a good deal who could have helped for 3 playoff runs and 2 whole seasons. Could have been had for 2 B level prospects since it was a clear dump. Priskie could be argued as a high B low A level guy... so Timmins + Kaut would have easily sealed up that deal...

He was suffering with injuries and bad form at the time though which may have been what put Sakic off.

 

[henchman21]

He was suffering with injuries and bad form at the time though which may have been what put Sakic off.

Pays to have a 1000' view of things. Trocheck isn't what he was 3 seasons ago, but he's still a very good middle 6 center who would have solved the problems there... for not a lot of cost.

I should state, Trocheck should have been option #3. JGP should have been #1 then Danault #2. I'd still love the Avs to get their hands on Danault.

 

[McJedi]

Why is Newhook not playing for BC lately. Is he injured? If so, how bad.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Why is Newhook not playing for BC lately. Is he injured? If so, how bad.

Pregame: Merrimack travels to Boston College

BC will be without star forward Alex Newhook, who is out with a shoulder injury.

 

[Pokecheque]

Dong is worse than Compher, but I'd argue Compher's biggest issue is the Avs just won't give up on him at center. He skates well enough to play the position and when he's having a good game he can be impactful there... he just isn't good enough consistently there to center a line. He needs to be stapled to wing and not be relied on a driver from the middle of the ice. His game would improve there and his mistakes would be hidden with a good 3C. He's never going to be a great player, he'd be an average 3rd liner that is fairly frustrating. If the Avs keep trying to force Compher into a 3C role, he's going to continue to be very frustrating.

I agree with everything but the “Dong is worse than Compher” part. Dong can (and did) play a scoring line role under the right circumstances. He’s insanely streaky but that still makes him a more reliable scorer than JTC.

Both have bad underlying numbers so it’s a really terrible idea to have the two of them together on top of the fact that JTC isn’t a center. At all.

 

[henchman21]

I agree with everything but the “Dong is worse than Compher” part. Dong can (and did) play a scoring line role under the right circumstances. He’s insanely streaky but that still makes him a more reliable scorer than JTC.

Both have bad underlying numbers so it’s a really terrible idea to have the two of them together on top of the fact that JTC isn’t a center. At all.

There are times that Compher can play on a scoring line too. He's just about as streaky as Dong, but has a higher up and a lower down. There are games where Compher looks like MacKinnon lite and games where he is utterly worthless. In the end, both are mid 30 point 3rd line wingers who are very frustrating players. I'd rather keep Compher over Dong on this team, but ideally, both would get pushed out for better 3rd line options.

 

[Richard88]

Given MacDonald's emergence lately there's a decent case to be made for trading Graves for a pick pre-expansion to funnel Seattle towards a forward instead. Teams needing D who have an extra protection slot may be ok with sending a 2nd or thereabouts for Graves, such as Arizona or Vancouver for instance.

Whatever the return, moving Graves means our expansion situation would be as follows:

• Protected (7+3+1):
  • Mackinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Kadri, Burakovsky, Nichuskin, Jost
  • Makar, Girard, Toews
  • Grubauer

• Exposed:
  • Donskoi, Compher, O'Connor
  • Johnson (waives NMC), MacDonald
  • Francouz.

With Graves off the board Seattle wouldn't really have an obvious choice, but you could nonetheless send them a pick to steer them towards Compher instead of Donskoi or O'Connor/MacDonald to ensure that we get $3.5m cap relief.

Those moves would allow us to resign everyone including Saad, and have the 2021-22 roster below:

 

[John Mandalorian]

What’s the customary pick for something like this?

 

[Richard88]

What’s the customary pick for something like this?

It depends on the difference in value between the player you want them to take, and the player they otherwise take. In this case, it's the difference in value between Compher and Donskoi. Donskoi is having a better season and has better analytics, but historically there isn't really much difference between them, as both are ~35 point 3rd line RW's. The fact that Compher is more of a regular PKer and plays C (at least in a pinch) might serve to balance the value a bit too. Maybe a 3rd rounder would do. Or perhaps Seattle just prefer Compher over Donskoi anyhow for whatever reason.

 

[Balthazar]

It seems like the most valuable thing this year and the upcoming next couple of seasons is CAP SPACE. So I'd expect Seattle to pick CHEAP CONTRACTS in the expansion draft and then weaponize the rest of its cap space (and also sign good UFA's for dirt cheap).

In other words, it's a real bad strategy for them to relieve teams from bigger contracts for nothing, even if those players are a little better than the cheap ones they'll pick.

 

[LTC Pain]

Sakic needs to get EJ off the roster. My hope is EJ at least waives his NTC so the Avs' don't have to protect him in the expansion draft. If a trade can't be accomplished, then buy EJ out in the off-season. Thanks EJ buy I think your time with the Avs is done.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Sakic needs to get EJ off the roster. My hope is EJ at least waives his NTC so the Avs' don't have to protect him in the expansion draft. If a trade can't be accomplished, then buy EJ out in the off-season. Thanks EJ buy I think your time with the Avs is done.

There’s plenty of room for compromise with this. I think he’ll waive the NTC. I’m not so sure he’s jettisoned though. But maybe you’re right?

 

[Richard88]

There’s plenty of room for compromise with this. I think he’ll waive the NTC. I’m not so sure he’s jettisoned though. But maybe you’re right?

If they can move Compher and Graves to Seattle and a trade for picks they should be able to keep EJ.

 

[John Mandalorian]

If they can move Compher and Graves to Seattle and a trade for picks they should be able to keep EJ.

Or Saad.

Do you agree that trading Compher (+?) means being able to choose Saad?