OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 6

[Stylizer1]

I sort of understand why people might think it was lab created but as usual, conspiracy theorists push things to ridiculous extremes.

I absolutely believe the Chinese work with infectious diseases for the purpose of exploring the potential of bioweapons. As a government they clearly don't have many scruples and are ramping up their military capabilities.

However what is a fact is that their massive wet markets have little regulation, and in the necessity of feeding massive populations, they probably won't look too hard at where the food is actually coming from. Naturally this can be a breeding ground for disease, which we've seen many times over. It just so happens that this virus was just a bit too difficult for the state mechanisms to lock down before it was too late.

I think Hanlon's razor appropriately describes the situation:

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.'

So it came from bat soup then? Like how aids came from someone having sex with a monkey?

 

[Stylizer1]

But the vast majority of the scientific world has debunked that idea

So unless they all lie and are on Bill Gates/China payroll, the virus WAS NOT created in a lab. Why is it still discussed?

Man, these disinformation campains are really something. You end up wondering who really has agenda. Looks like the conspiracy theorists are the ones fabricating a conspiracy

Really?

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Exactly my point. So to throw around "300,000 estimated deaths above an expected mortality rate" and attributing it to Covid would be misleading

Well, I guess it's all in how it's communicated or positioned. You originally asked if it was "primarily due" to Covid. And I stated that there'd need to be "a bit of analysis" before drawing "firm conclusions".

That analysis would be primarily statistical, looking at historical death numbers attributed to various causes over the past, say 70 years, and assigning a probability to where the excess deaths are coming from.

EG, it is statistically possible that the 300,000 excess deaths could have occurred without Covid. Incredibly unlikely -- say 0.00001% -- but possible.

So, the analysis would yield something like "it's 95% likely that 278,000 of the deaths are due to Covid, 21,000 due to surgeries couldnt be performed, 9,000 due to mental illness (suicide), etc...".

But in the absence of this analysis it is not unreasonable to say that the excess deaths are "primarily due to Covid", because primarily is a fuzzy enough term that it is almost certainly true.

Unless of course, as I asked, you can think of some other phenomenon that explains them.

 

[The Lewler]

So it came from bat soup then? Like how aids came from someone having sex with a monkey?

jawdrop.gif

 

[Senscore]

So it came from bat soup then? Like how aids came from someone having sex with a monkey?

Wet markets are giant outdoor food markets filled with rotting meat of animals from all areas of wilderness, exposed to insects, and with people constantly touching and moving between products. These are commonplace in many Chinese cities.

It's practically a disease factory. And with the way diseases work to get around natural and man made defenses, it was only a matter of time until it one particular virus came along that couldn't quite be contained. That's how recent strains of swine flu and avian flu are believed to have originated.

That was literally how the disease in Contagion was written to have originated. It's not exactly a surprise that this happened, even if the scale was unique in this case.

 

[Stylizer1]

Wet markets are giant outdoor food markets filled with rotting meat of animals from all areas of wilderness, exposed to insects, and with people constantly touching and moving between products. These are commonplace in many Chinese cities.

It's practically a disease factory. And with the way diseases work to get around natural and man made defenses, it was only a matter of time until it one particular virus came along that couldn't quite be contained. That's how recent strains of swine flu and avian flu are believed to have originated.

That was literally how the disease in Contagion was written to have originated. It's not exactly a surprise that this happened, even if the scale was unique in this case.

That seems like a plausible explanation but is it the truth? Just saying they have wet markets and it was bound to happen doesn't meant it did. They have had wet markets for thousands of years. You would think a country with a population of close to 1.5 billion people would have had a lot more mass die offs because of them. One thing for sure is they probably have the best immunity to viruses.

China is not the only country were wet markets exist.

 

[JD1]

That seems like a plausible explanation but is it the truth? Just saying they have wet markets and it was bound to happen doesn't meant it did. They have had wet markets for thousands of years. You would think a country with a population of close to 1.5 billion people would have had a lot more mass die offs because of them. One thing for sure is they probably have the best immunity to viruses.

China is not the only country were wet markets exist.

If they did have a mass die off, how would we know?

The Chinese are not exactly forthcoming with information nor is information they provide reliable. If you look at corona stats, the world o meters site has them at 85, 747 cases. When they were at 80,000 cases they were the most infected country in the world. Are we to believe that a virus that has affected about 42M people globally since those days has only affected 5,000 Chinese?

 

[Stylizer1]

If they did have a mass die off, how would we know?

The Chinese are not exactly forthcoming with information nor is information they provide reliable. If you look at corona stats, the world o meters site has them at 85, 747 cases. When they were at 80,000 cases they were the most infected country in the world. Are we to believe that a virus that has affected about 42M people globally since those days has only affected 5,000 Chinese?

So who traced it back to a wet market then? The Chinese, Americans?

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

If they did have a mass die off, how would we know?

The Chinese are not exactly forthcoming with information nor is information they provide reliable. If you look at corona stats, the world o meters site has them at 85, 747 cases. When they were at 80,000 cases they were the most infected country in the world. Are we to believe that a virus that has affected about 42M people globally since those days has only affected 5,000 Chinese?

They definitely had way more cases and deaths. A great deal of deaths happened before they knew Covid even existed. Based on articles I read it was probably closer to 20,000 deaths in Wuhan and Hubei.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Well, I guess it's all in how it's communicated or positioned. You originally asked if it was "primarily due" to Covid. And I stated that there'd need to be "a bit of analysis" before drawing "firm conclusions".

That analysis would be primarily statistical, looking at historical death numbers attributed to various causes over the past, say 70 years, and assigning a probability to where the excess deaths are coming from.

EG, it is statistically possible that the 300,000 excess deaths could have occurred without Covid. Incredibly unlikely -- say 0.00001% -- but possible.

So, the analysis would yield something like "it's 95% likely that 278,000 of the deaths are due to Covid, 21,000 due to surgeries couldnt be performed, 9,000 due to mental illness (suicide), etc...".

But in the absence of this analysis it is not unreasonable to say that the excess deaths are "primarily due to Covid", because primarily is a fuzzy enough term that it is almost certainly true.

Unless of course, as I asked, you can think of some other phenomenon that explains them.

I probably should have been more direct.

My original post was more around the basis that that number of 300k being attributed to the virus itself entering the human body and causing people to succumb to it would be misleading.

You provided a good example with regards to surgeries not being able to be performed due to hospital patient rationing or just the basic fear of going anywhere near a hospital despite having an underlying illness that is not Covid related. I think I read suicides and overdoses spiked as well which can contribute to the numbers. There could be a slew of factors which would need a more thorough analysis.

 

[Xspyrit]

The numbers reported in poor populations are also far from accurate. There is much much more people infected and dying than what is reported, even though the naysayers will tell you "they are exagerrating the totals"

However, every country and area of the world is facing different factors. In Africa, the population is very young in general and other factors contributed for them to be able to contain the virus much more efficiently than other continents

Coronavirus in Africa: Five reasons why Covid-19 has been less deadly than elsewhere

Random point : something really heartbreaking happened in Italy and other places in the world, doctors had to choose who to give ventilators. Many doctors are still traumatized by this.

 

[Senscore]

That seems like a plausible explanation but is it the truth? Just saying they have wet markets and it was bound to happen doesn't meant it did. They have had wet markets for thousands of years. You would think a country with a population of close to 1.5 billion people would have had a lot more mass die offs because of them. One thing for sure is they probably have the best immunity to viruses.

China is not the only country were wet markets exist.

They have had plenty of outbreaks from these markets over the years. This is just the first virus which was able to completely escape containment.

The problem for China is twofold. Wuhan has a population of 11 million people. Any city with a population of over 10 million is considered a "mega city." India, which has a comparable population only has 3 mega cities. China has 16. That's an insane amount of people in close proximity and they all have mouths to feed. The markets get bigger and more animals are brought in from farther reaches. That coincides with the other problem.

China, culturally, really enjoys eating exotic animals. Sharks, bats, dogs, snakes, along with the standard fare of chicken, duck, goose, cattle, pork, etc. Beyond the variety of animals is also the interest in many animal parts that we usually wouldn't eat here in the west. Feet, ears, organs, etc. So basically you end up with a bunch of freely available animal parts of a massive variety with less than sanitary conditions at the heart of a massive population.

It's a recipe for disaster and it finally backfired on a global scale.

 

[Stylizer1]

Li-Meng Yan or Yan Limeng, is a Chinese ophthalmologist and virologist whose 2020 publications and interviews alleging that SARS-CoV-2 was made in a Chinese government laboratory have been widely disputed by the scientific community.

 

[Stylizer1]

From June:

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Li-Meng Yan or Yan Limeng, is a Chinese ophthalmologist and virologist whose 2020 publications and interviews alleging that SARS-CoV-2 was made in a Chinese government laboratory have been widely disputed by the scientific community.

From June:

This would be crazy if true, but I don't think it is. While I enjoy some stuff from Fox News and Joe Rogan's podcast, they say some crazy shit to get views.

 

[Stylizer1]

This would be crazy if true, but I don't think it is. While I enjoy some stuff from Fox News and Joe Rogan's podcast, they say some crazy shit to get views.

So both are invalid then?

 

[Alf Silfversson]

So it came from bat soup then? Like how aids came from someone having sex with a monkey?

Have you ever been to a bush meat market in Central Africa? Honest question.

Because I have and you see guys coming out of the jungle carrying up to a half dozen monkeys and snakes over their shoulder on strings. The monkeys didn't die quietly. They're freshly killed and are often still dripping blood onto the hunter who harvested them. And it ain't easy work getting through that jungle, believe me. So, more often than not, these guys have multiple open wounds from a hard life in the forest. When you see it all in action it doesn't take an active imagination to understand how primate to human blood transfers happened.

Much like Covid-19 HIV/AIDS came from unsanitary food practices.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Have you ever been to a bush meat market in Central Africa? Honest question.
....

Have you ever been to the McDonalds on Rideau street? Honest question.

I've seen stuff there that would put you off Big Macs forever.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Have you ever been to the McDonalds on Rideau street? Honest question.

I've seen stuff there that would put you off Big Macs forever.

That's where the next pandemic will likely come from.

So both are invalid then?

I wouldn't use the term invalid, I would just say it isn't very credible.

 

[Senscore]

Have you ever been to the McDonalds on Rideau street? Honest question.

I've seen stuff there that would put you off Big Macs forever.

I don't think that racoon washed his hands.

 

[Masked]

I don't think that racoon washed his hands.

Probably picked it up on the other side of the river.

 

[Stylizer1]

Have you ever been to a bush meat market in Central Africa? Honest question.

Because I have and you see guys coming out of the jungle carrying up to a half dozen monkeys and snakes over their shoulder on strings. The monkeys didn't die quietly. They're freshly killed and are often still dripping blood onto the hunter who harvested them. And it ain't easy work getting through that jungle, believe me. So, more often than not, these guys have multiple open wounds from a hard life in the forest. When you see it all in action it doesn't take an active imagination to understand how primate to human blood transfers happened.

Much like Covid-19 HIV/AIDS came from unsanitary food practices.

Yes, right on the equator, and the meat was most likely not as fresh.

 

[JD1]

The numbers reported in poor populations are also far from accurate. There is much much more people infected and dying than what is reported, even though the naysayers will tell you "they are exagerrating the totals"

However, every country and area of the world is facing different factors. In Africa, the population is very young in general and other factors contributed for them to be able to contain the virus much more efficiently than other continents

Coronavirus in Africa: Five reasons why Covid-19 has been less deadly than elsewhere

Random point : something really heartbreaking happened in Italy and other places in the world, doctors had to choose who to give ventilators. Many doctors are still traumatized by this.

Africa. Go read articles about Africa from February to April.

Africa is yet another example of the scientific / medical community predicting what this virus would do and being completely wrong

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

So both are invalid then?

No one with any intelligence takes Tucker Carlson or Joe Rogan seriously.

 

[Xspyrit]

Africa. Go read articles about Africa from February to April.

Africa is yet another example of the scientific / medical community predicting what this virus would do and being completely wrong

Coronavirus being a new virus, it's not surprising. There's a lot of things we didn't know at the beginning and that we still don't know now. Thank God a lot of people are asymptomatic and healthy people under 50 are safe in general. They didn't know how the death rates per group age would look like.

Predicting future results and analysing past results is completely different.